This is superb.
2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress
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I totally see those points, the civil unrest aspect is particularly worrying.
On the other hand I assume they have the option to keep him in isolation if he's a grave treath to the state, if he leaks, trades or sells state secrets I'd also assume the relevant authorities would find out. I'm not a legal expert, but wouldn't this basically translate to treason? Heap all the other charges waiting for Trump on top of this and I would guess they will find a way to shut him up for good?
Pretty sure he'll either pardon himself or have pence do it before they leave office. It'll be a state not federal level prosecution. Problem with this last line, is it sounds authoritarian, something like Trump would love to do. I'm no expert but it'd be hard to 'shut him up for good' without putting him in the ground or Guantanamo/Diego Garcia. And eventually, that would come out, even if they did it secretly. And would it all be worth it? May as well just let him play golf in Scotland with Chairman Kim.
Well, Trump has empowered far-right wing parties accross the world since his election and would get much worse if he's re-elected, it effects everyone.
So what are the early signs? Looks mixed reports so far and no clear favorites.
What media have you been watching to reach these conclusions?
I want to believe, but in the last 5 years we have seen Brexit, Trump and the recent GE in the UK as well. Each time, the news has followed the same cycle of optimism, only to end up with crushing disappointment. I am really fearful that the same thing will happen this time around.
Im also concerned that Trump/GOP will just outright cheat their way to victory, and nobody/nothing is going to be able to stop them. A poster earlier commented about getting the UN involved to moderate the elections... frankly thats not an outlandish suggestion at this point.
Im also concerned that Trump/GOP will just outright cheat their way to victory, and nobody/nothing is going to be able to stop them. A poster earlier commented about getting the UN involved to moderate the elections... frankly thats not an outlandish suggestion at this point.
You're only remembering the bad results, or you were not aware of the good ones. 2018 was a big Democratic win, though they couldn't take the Senate. Far (ish)-right politicians have also lost elections in other countries since 2016, such as in France and Austria. The left in Bolivia just won a massive victory after being declared dead and buried after the maybe-kinda-coup after the last election.
I wouldn't be too worried about the polls being wrong again, or at least not wrong enough to matter. I share your concern about Trump doing everything he can to stay in power, though. Even if he fails, he has already done a lot of damage to democratic and government norms in the US (and influenced the rest of the world).
Edit: It goes without saying that the UK is fecked, though. You fecked up.
Pensilvania is a bit worrying though 
Why is Pennsylvania worrying? Biden is up by 5-7 points today.Pensilvania is a bit worrying though
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Biden is whupping Trump's ass. Everyone is shitting it because of 2016 and because Trump will obviously try and cheat, but looked at dispassionately Biden is walking this. High turnout always doomed Republicans, and turnout this time is already sky high with even the youth vote way up. Biden is polling ahead basically everywhere that isn't deep red, and barring any massive cheating it's going to take a shock far bigger than 2016 to stop Trump being kicked out on his ass.
Was watching cnbc and some local news outlet and none of them gave any clear projection. I didn't reach any conclusions but was asking people here what are the ealry trends?
That's good to know. High turnout is what is needed. Would be surprised if trump wins this time too.
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Just heard the Lt. Governor explaining dems are underestimating the Trump campaign engagement in the rural counties.
I think the "massive cheating" part is what's stopping people getting ahead of themselves. We know the Trump campaign is going to try that and we basically have to put faith in the US judicial system which is absurdly partisan.
It's not 'dems' though, its the polling companies who are delivering consistent polls showing Biden with a comfortable lead outside the margin of error. Maybe Fetterman knows something we don't, or maybe he's just trying to scare people into getting out and voting to avoid complacency. Personally I'd suspect the latter.
Yeh I've not seen anything to reassure me that they can't just mail in a few million fake ballots in key areas, or just outright hack the voting/counting systems. I dunno if its possible, but if its possible i've little doubt they'll try it. I'm pretty much assuming the same team that ensure's Putins grip on power will be doing everything they can to aid Trump.
They just need the initial count to be in his favour, they'll shut down any investigations after that. They've already put the pieces in place.
I.e. "here's a hundred dollar bill for your vote."
Well it's not just the pollsters though is it? The actual campaign needs to counteract appropriately as well.
The Dems have missed a trick by not nominating Li'l' Sebastian.
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Current concerns in order of high to low:
IA - Biden at best 50/50
NV - He should win, but its far from ironclad
NC - He NEEDS independents here, and perhaps even needs them on the day.
FL - He should win, but shenanigans at USPS etc are concerning me.
Biggest optimism:
GA - At worst 50/50. This is a good place to be in for GA
TX - Outside shot. HUGE turnout in TX already, already at 108% of 2016
IA - Biden at best 50/50
NV - He should win, but its far from ironclad
NC - He NEEDS independents here, and perhaps even needs them on the day.
FL - He should win, but shenanigans at USPS etc are concerning me.
Biggest optimism:
GA - At worst 50/50. This is a good place to be in for GA
TX - Outside shot. HUGE turnout in TX already, already at 108% of 2016
I'm in exactly the same state of mind as you.
NV at 1.30 is free money at this point. Dems surpassed their firewall target yesterday with mail in ballots and by the end of today would add another 5k on top of that, at minimum. There’s simply not enough votes in the rural area to make up the deficit.
For better or worse, what happens in the US directly influences things all around the world, in every country. I would say if people don't care about this election then they're the strange ones.
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If Biden takes one of Florida or Texas then he'll win by a landslide on the night, even if they wait to officially declare. He's ahead in Florida and tied in Texas. He'll also win if he takes any of the southern states that were absolutely for Trump and generally for republicans as it would indicate him doing very well in all the other states he's projected to win. The likes of Ohio will probably go to Trump but it doesn't matter so much when Michigan looks certain to go to Biden.
Trump has two or three routes to win whereas all the other variations are Biden wins and each of those few Trump scenarios include the southern states as well as the two tossups in Texas and Florida. The polls are accurate.
Trump has two or three routes to win whereas all the other variations are Biden wins and each of those few Trump scenarios include the southern states as well as the two tossups in Texas and Florida. The polls are accurate.
Also, the US just suddenly and unilaterally withdrawing from crucial global treaties and organisations is - and I can't stress this enough - a feckING AWFUL thing on so many levels.
Be suspicious of any "we've got this in the bag, relax" rhetoric.
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The final Morning Consult poll in PA is encouraging.
4.4 Lead in the early vote is not insane considering the number of people who could vote on that day [and that votes will be heavily gop].
If I was looking for free money, I'd bet on AZ. It's as close to a sure bet there is. No real way back for trump there. (dunno the odds though)
I watched 2012 without much enthusiasm. Obama won and it felt like a real victory. In 2016, I was heavily invested in the election and I took a day off just to calm myself. I gave up on green card plans and started planning to move back to India. 4 years later, I don't live in US anymore but while I'm not invested like 2016, I still want the good guys to win (at least the comparative good ones). Purely from the devastation of 2016, I am loathe to beleive Biden will win this time.
1.72 @ Unibet.
Nice use of loathe.
Also - and I loathe using the term 'loser' - but only losers slow up before the finish line. There's some of that shit going on in this thread.
When you win the only person you're truly beating is yourself.
Run/vote/tweet/influence until all you see is yourself.
Did you end up going back to India or another country?
Man I feel the same way about my country. (The UK) - After the election I had to literally escape, and now I have to consider my long term future. I don't know where to go. Considered Sweden, NZ, Canada, Israel, India, and even The Netherlands. Need to really make up my mind. Good on you for making plans and following through.
That's insane. It could be that registration data is messed up as per this guys fairly cautious analysis:
However, I see a 8.3 point shift as entirely possible. And that's +1.9 with independents at parity too. So don't take my opinion as like "bet now" - but 1.72 is crazy.
Absolutely. As a foreign national, I can't donate but I've been urging all my relatives to vote for the good guys.
I returned to India, my home country.
Cheers. Not much of a plan as much as returning back to my home country though. Things are not much better here but at least it's my country
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