Daily Mail are running with the Biden laptop story acting like it's completely true. Rather nuts.
2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress
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They are 10 points ahead in turnout even adjusting for voter registration change between 16-20. Around 58.6% have already voted, based on the official data.
https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=9054
The state has 2 large urban centres, hoarding the majority of votes, with the largest - Clark - being solid blue, which is now at D + 89.5k, and Washoe, a swing county trending blue, at D + 1.8k, and that lead is growing further with another day of mail with at least a 2:1 D ratio. If we map their turnout based on 2016 (76.8%), there are about 360k votes out there, even if we push that all the way to 80%, that’s 414k. Even if Trump wins Is the same way he did in ‘16, he would still need to win the rurals by about 90k (he won them by 50 in 16) in order to overcome the deficit, which means pushing their turnout another 10 pts to above 90 across the board, while D turnout in Clark maintains their 2016 level of 75.28%.
https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4567
The lead might look slim in the averages, but it’s a pretty damn rock solid one.
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Obama's speeches have been fantastic. They could have done with someone younger running. Would have destroyed Trump by now.
The comparative lack of popularity in California vs that of Hillary is actually a positive for national polls. California gets dicked by the EC anyway. Based on, for example, Iowa’s population:EC ratio, California should either have 10 million fewer people to fairly ratio with 55 EC seats, or should have 75 EC seats with the population it has.
I've never been really invested in US Politics but I'm planning on moving to the US for my masters in 2021. So paying close attention to this one. No way I'm moving to the US if Trump gets reelected.
Did you leave the States because of visa issues? I've heard stories of Trump administration revoking visas of folks who have been working for 10+ years and being a pain in the arse about everything immigration related.
Where are you planning on moving to
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I'd concur with most of that. (My models have between 280k and 350k voting on election day. That's with a total turnout a touch over 1.4m (Which is still huge). That said, if we discount independents he's only 39k ahead right now on the partisan vote in early voting. (updated with the data you linked). For me the data suggests he should win, but that it's not a sure thing there.
edit: quoted the wrong post, that was for the top men.
You're right though, most of the status lights are solid green.
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Counteract what though? It's one day before election day and the polls are showing the dems with a comfortable lead. If they have missed something then its too late now for anything other than regret. Honestly though I think the guy is just trying to stop complacency sinking in with Penn's Democratic voters.
As weird as it may sound, don't forget that for those people themselves, they likely didn't mind.
I'm sure they'll find a way to convince themselves it was the Democrats fault.
I think he said this has been going on for a while, not just last minute , same as a congresswoman in Florida warning that Trump has the better door to door canvassing but I presume this is because they don't give two shots about
covid.
Yes, the GOP have been more effective at mobilising registrations in Florida. That said, the democrats had already registered for the primary, whereas republicans haven't bothered. It's not a huge deal, as party registration doesn't tell us too much.
I'm doing a phd on a student visa in the US. Trump has proposed to either send us home or revoke our visa with 2 different rule changes this year. One was supposedly because of the pandemic and that rule was withdrawn, the other is a permanent change he wants to student visa length and we don't know the status of that rule change. I'm still much luckier than Chinese students for whom the rules have beome insane (constant, uncertain, and expensive visa renewals), and I'm not sure things will get better for them regardless of who wins.
The uncertainty is scary, and I don't think long-term there is going to be stability. Biden looks like he will win and return everything to the status-quo of 2016, but he is inheriting a dire situation and I'm half expecting Tucker Carlson 2024. No way I'm going to be in the US to experience whatever happens with that. I want to get out the moment my work is done. If Trump wins, my plan is to wrap up my experiments in 2 months and write the thesis from home. Before my visa is revoked!*
Masters students are the best from the PoV of a university (high tuition, mostly paid in full) and from a Trump PoV (short stay), but Trump will not like that the plan usually is to get a job and convert the F1 visa into a H1B (they've already made some changes to those rules). If Biden wins, you'll be safe from visa changes till 2024, and that should be enough time to get a masters.
*2 of my friends absolutely do no think any of this, both are already looking for US jobs. So I might be the paranoid idiot here.
My brother works for google, and they'd convinced him to do a year there last/this year. However he actually had trouble with the visa and they had to shelve the plan. (phd in machine learning) Jane Street also pulled the offer of some consulting for me over visa issues. It's hard to imagine it doesn't get at least a little better. Seems so self defeating.
@InfiniteBoredom I was referring to the Dutch USC guy who I even quoted in my post. Not the partisan clown.
You are being paranoid as a phd candidate, you should be fine.
I was thinking about the enormous letdown a lot of people might experience if Biden is elected. They would all be happy to get rid of Trump, but I think few would be happy with what Biden actually stands for. (Not right enough, not left enough, not much of anything.) I wonder what that would mean for the next elections. As there would not be much to agitate against, ideologically, they could be wide open.
Anyway, first things first.
Would that be a legal argument the GOP can use? 'Polls indicate a huge Trump advantage, so something fishy happened.' I guess it wouldn't work because there are too few GOP mouthpiece polls to have real weight in a court discussion?
Nationality? JSC tries to accommodate all fulltime visa requirements.
If Trump wins I can imagine effectively curtains for H1B in one form or another.
If Trump gets reelected I have no clue what I'll do. Will look at unis in Canada probably or get a job and do my masters after a couple of years, when this covid thing blows over.
British. Wasn't fulltime, but they should have handled it anyway instead of suggesting Dublin.
I guess it's pointless to game out scenarios, but why not?
https://www.270towin.com/maps/eV6j7
It seems to that Biden can, realistically, get by without BOTH FL and PA (and NC for that matter). Have I missed something?
The desert is the key!
https://www.270towin.com/maps/eV6j7
It seems to that Biden can, realistically, get by without BOTH FL and PA (and NC for that matter). Have I missed something?
The desert is the key!
They'll almost certainly slow-roll it as much as they legally can. One of the current main barriers to getting a visa, even if you fit in an exception the State Dept has announced, or any lawsuits that have overturned parts of the existing bans, is that consulates the world over are offering very few appointments. That seems to be directed from the top and I imagine would continue through a good part of 2021 if Trump were re-elected, besides all the other rule-making and executive orders he can attempt to continue curtailing legal immigration of all kinds.
Timeline to watch in ET
7pm - GA closes. If Trump loses here, game over.
7pm - VA closes. If Biden is not clearly winning, we may see a 2016 repeat.
7:30pm - NC closes. If Trump loses here, game over.
7:30pm - Ohio closes. If Trump loses here, game over.
Will update this post with key counties later.
If you are as confident as @owlo on AZ, it is already game over.
7pm - GA closes. If Trump loses here, game over.
7pm - VA closes. If Biden is not clearly winning, we may see a 2016 repeat.
7:30pm - NC closes. If Trump loses here, game over.
7:30pm - Ohio closes. If Trump loses here, game over.
Will update this post with key counties later.
Needs to win one of GA, NC, OH, AZ in that case.
If you are as confident as @owlo on AZ, it is already game over.
Yeah, I'm banking on AZ now! The media will look at Florida and Pennsylvania - feck 'em
Polls suggest a bigger lead in PA than in AZ, so the assumption is that if you lose PA you also lose AZ. 538 has AZ's probability of being the tipping point state at 5.9% (compared to 37% for PA), so possible but unlikely.
Does anyone buy this talk of Texas being turned blue for this election?
It seems the lefty media are getting their hopes up for something that probably won't happen, from what I've seen the GOP have gerrymandered and disenfranchised enough voters to keep the state red.
It seems the lefty media are getting their hopes up for something that probably won't happen, from what I've seen the GOP have gerrymandered and disenfranchised enough voters to keep the state red.
And the PA lead has stayed stable between 6-8% which is higher than Hillary's and even with a 2016-esque late swing, should still be a Biden win (assuming all votes are counted!).
When do the results start coming in? Semi interested in following it from Europe, I remember last time it was pretty late though, like 2am UK time.
Yeah this seems to be the general consensus. Know a couple of very bright minds who were moving to the US for their masters but because of the uncertainty around the visas and the political situation have decided against it.
If Trump gets reelected dont think US will remain the number one destination for international students.
I tend to agree but even if it doesn't happen now - I do expect to see Texas go blue in the not too distant future. A lot of transplants and rapid growing cities like Dallas-Ft Worth and Austin for example will mean the Rs are going to have to exceedingly amp up the antics to divide and conquer that state. In some ways I feel Texas is kind of like a much larger Colorado.
If you're hardcore, then around 0:30 London time the next day. AKA American Eastern Standard Time +5
If you're less hardcore, then the time in your own post; around 2 AM.
For me: More chance than trump winning the white house. Less chance than 50/50.
I’m of the opinion that D will fall just short like 2018, but even then as long as they win enough state legislature seats to have bipartisan redistricting, that’s a huge win and will make TX a true swing state as early as 2022.
On the other hand, even R pollsters are expecting turnout north of 70% there, that’s a huge increase and opens up a lot of possibilities.
Hey, guys.
Who should I follow on Twitter ahead of the big day? Give me five/ten accounts of reliable sources.
Who should I follow on Twitter ahead of the big day? Give me five/ten accounts of reliable sources.
There's a chance. Weeks ago I didn't think there was much of a chance but early voting has convinced me otherwise.
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