2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

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Charlie Foley

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I'm pretty sure they won't, but I'm also pretty sure that Washington won't let it get that far. He'll be an ex president with a big mouth, able to destroy huge assets and intelligence whenever he opens it. And zero way to control that in state procedings/jails. Additionally his proud boys and the like will be clamouring for nastiness. It'd just be a horrible situation. They'd be better off disappearing him to Diego Garcia or the like than allowing that to happen. There's surely some way to stop states prosecuting due to national security? Maybe @Charlie Foley knows.
You are basically asking whether the federal government could prevent a state prosecuting an individual (1) because that individual's supporters would respond so violently or (2) because of concerns that Trump would lash out and spill the beans in prison?
I am not aware of such a provision and I can't imagine one existing (but I will research). The first concept would undermine the very concept of a government as it’s basically permitting mob rule: the latter is more interesting but would also basically allow the feds to block any state prosecution of an ex president or someone with similar security info. Also, constitutional red flags all over the place.

Off the top of my head state criminal prosecutions are enjoined where the state statute’s constitutionality is disputed: even then it seems there are (or at least have been) circumstances where being able to appear in court to raise the issue of unconstitutionality of the statue you are charged under is considered “enough” to permit the state case to go ahead.

I will however point you to this memo relating to the watergate affair which does mention that some of what you’ve mentioned could well be a factor in deciding whether to prosecute. Factors against prosecution were the following:

1. His resignation has been sufficient punishment.

2. He has been subject to an impeachment inquiry with resulting articles of impeachment which the House Judiciary Committee unanimously endorsed as to Article I (the Watergate cover-up).

3. Prosecution might aggravate political divisions in the country.

4. As a political matter, the times call for conciliation rather than recrimination.

5. There would be considerable difficulty in achieving a fair trial because of massive pre-trial publicity.
Points 3-5 are the most relevant to Trump’s circumstances/your question.
 

owlo

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You are basically asking whether the federal government could prevent a state prosecuting an individual (1) because that individual's supporters would respond so violently or (2) because of concerns that Trump would lash out and spill the beans in prison?
I am not aware of such a provision and I can't imagine one existing (but I will research). The first concept would undermine the very concept of a government as it’s basically permitting mob rule: the latter is more interesting but would also basically allow the feds to block any state prosecution of an ex president or someone with similar security info. Also, constitutional red flags all over the place.

Off the top of my head state criminal prosecutions are enjoined where the state statute’s constitutionality is disputed: even then it seems there are (or at least have been) circumstances where being able to appear in court to raise the issue of unconstitutionality of the statue you are charged under is considered “enough” to permit the state case to go ahead.

I will however point you to this memo relating to the watergate affair which does mention that some of what you’ve mentioned could well be a factor in deciding whether to prosecute. Factors against prosecution were the following:



Points 3-5 are the most relevant to Trump’s circumstances/your question.
Thanks for the great answer! The Watergate memo *seems* to be discussing federal prosecution; some of those factors (3,4) may not be applicable to a popularity seeking DA like say... Cyrus Vance.

I find it a really interesting question, because you raise a lot of good points re. constitutional red flags; however I think it's quite clear that Donald Trump in prison (short of say, Guantanamo Bay or a Ultra security facility where he literally can't open his mouth) would be a terrible idea for the US as a whole. In the circumstances where say, the state and feds are unable to negotiate an agreement, it opens a can of worms in itself.

That said, he's gonna be a huge security risk anyway and deserves jail. He's not going to ride quietly off into the sunset.
 

mariachi-19

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You are basically asking whether the federal government could prevent a state prosecuting an individual (1) because that individual's supporters would respond so violently or (2) because of concerns that Trump would lash out and spill the beans in prison?
I am not aware of such a provision and I can't imagine one existing (but I will research). The first concept would undermine the very concept of a government as it’s basically permitting mob rule: the latter is more interesting but would also basically allow the feds to block any state prosecution of an ex president or someone with similar security info. Also, constitutional red flags all over the place.

Off the top of my head state criminal prosecutions are enjoined where the state statute’s constitutionality is disputed: even then it seems there are (or at least have been) circumstances where being able to appear in court to raise the issue of unconstitutionality of the statue you are charged under is considered “enough” to permit the state case to go ahead.

I will however point you to this memo relating to the watergate affair which does mention that some of what you’ve mentioned could well be a factor in deciding whether to prosecute. Factors against prosecution were the following:



Points 3-5 are the most relevant to Trump’s circumstances/your question.
With regards to the latter part of your post, I think the difference this time is that they believed Nixon to be an outlier. He had supporters but not in the same way Trump does and they blindly follow him.

I think the postion should be that for the benefit of the US Democracy, a message needs to be sent that no person is above the law and this behaviour will not be tolerated. If he gets voted out, allowing him to get away with what he's done is nearly as big a crime as those he has actually committed.
 

InfiniteBoredom

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As bad as it sounds, I don’t want him in jail because I don’t trust America to not elect a full blown fascist in the near future who immediately use that precedent to prosecute political enemies.

This guy has 44% approval. +8 trillions in debt in 4 years, racial unrest all around, 230k Covid deaths with 9.1m active cases. 44%.
 

MrMarcello

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Thanks for the great answer! The Watergate memo *seems* to be discussing federal prosecution; some of those factors (3,4) may not be applicable to a popularity seeking DA like say... Cyrus Vance.

I find it a really interesting question, because you raise a lot of good points re. constitutional red flags; however I think it's quite clear that Donald Trump in prison (short of say, Guantanamo Bay or a Ultra security facility where he literally can't open his mouth) would be a terrible idea for the US as a whole. In the circumstances where say, the state and feds are unable to negotiate an agreement, it opens a can of worms in itself.

That said, he's gonna be a huge security risk anyway and deserves jail. He's not going to ride quietly off into the sunset.
Neither will his nitwit adult sons and possibly his dream lover daughter, Ivanka (he doesn't care about Tiffany). That brings a separate concern for government.
 

Charlie Foley

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Thanks for the great answer! The Watergate memo *seems* to be discussing federal prosecution; some of those factors (3,4) may not be applicable to a popularity seeking DA like say... Cyrus Vance.

I find it a really interesting question, because you raise a lot of good points re. constitutional red flags; however I think it's quite clear that Donald Trump in prison (short of say, Guantanamo Bay or a Ultra security facility where he literally can't open his mouth) would be a terrible idea for the US as a whole. In the circumstances where say, the state and feds are unable to negotiate an agreement, it opens a can of worms in itself.

That said, he's gonna be a huge security risk anyway and deserves jail. He's not going to ride quietly off into the sunset.
Yes sorry, I should have have pointed that memo was about a federal prosecution.
As for the Trump speaking in prison or out, well, that was an issue with putting him in the office to begin with! It’s like the Gotham mobsters bringing in the Joker and now he’s too chaotic.
 

Cheimoon

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No, but Susan Collins will send him a VERY sternly worded letter.
I bet there will be more. Some tweets as well. Anynonymous sources. The scenes! Ah yes, this would totally dominate the news for a few hours.
 

Klopper76

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Anyone watch the documentary about the 2000 election between Bush and Gore? That came down to a 537 vote margin and was decided by the Supreme Court.

Think we could see something similar if it’s a close race. Trump has stacked the courts in his favour.
 

InfiniteBoredom

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Anyone watch the documentary about the 2000 election between Bush and Gore? That came down to a 537 vote margin and was decided by the Supreme Court.

Think we could see something similar if it’s a close race. Trump has stacked the courts in his favour.
HBO’s Recount?
 

Klopper76

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HBO’s Recount?
No this is a newish documentary about the election. It does reference Recount briefly.

Long story short Florida became the tipping point but because of how close it was. Bush wasn’t declared the winner until December.
 

berbatrick

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So this suggests support for Trump is better than what the polls are saying?
nah, i think it means his core base (white 65+) has left him in droves over the pandemic, while he has added some minority voters (mostly men), but that won't be enough IMO.
 

Wittmann45

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Rado is not being cynical.

RCP/538 modeling using polls misses two things
1. First derivative matters. While PA and WI have stayed stable, quite a few states have tightened in Trump's favor (OH, IA, AZ). This is generally a really bad sign. Momentum matters a lot in elections in the era of social media and this is a phenomena consistently observed in larger democracies around the world.
2. The shy Trump voter. Models have tried to correct for this, but one of the only pollsters to catch this in 2016 claims that he is still seeing his (2-3 swing in favor of Trump when people are asked whom they think their neighbour is going to vote for, instead of themselves).

I think there is some amount of unfounded optimism in the mainstream media.

Now, there is one factor which is breaking in Biden's favour.

The second wave of Covid is hitting hard and Trump is correctly associated as being unable to control it.
Wasn't that the same pollster that forecasted a Trump popular vote victory, which means he was just as wrong in the other direction as those polls forecasting an outright victory for Clinton?
 

The Firestarter

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No this is a newish documentary about the election. It does reference Recount briefly.

Long story short Florida became the tipping point but because of how close it was. Bush wasn’t declared the winner until December.
We all know that.
 

InfiniteBoredom

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Tbf the takeaway from Florida 2000 shouldn’t be ‘Republicans stole it fair and square’, it’s more ‘Palm Beach’s dumbocrats fecked the planet with their ballot design’
 

Siorac

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I was alarmed for a second to see a Trump +11 there - then I realised it was Indiana.

I got used to only seeing polls of the swing states. Polling Indiana seems rather pointless. Might as well look for some sweet California polls, too.
 

owlo

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I was alarmed for a second to see a Trump +11 there - then I realised it was Indiana.

I got used to only seeing polls of the swing states. Polling Indiana seems rather pointless. Might as well look for some sweet California polls, too.
He's not popular in California relative to Hilary haha. That said, probably loads of D voter apathy there.

The Indiana numbers are worrying (or would be if we didnt know it already) for Trump though. He won it by NINETEEN in 2016. Following the same trend as KY KS MO etc. He's simply not popular outside his base. (and it's why you're seeing states like TX as potential tossups. They aren't that purple, they just hate Trump)
Eg. He won Kentucky by 30 last time out. He'd be lucky to win by 18 this time.
 

InfiniteBoredom

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Unless Florida got called early, looks like NC/AZ will be tipping point state of the night. And ME the Senate tipping point.
 

Siorac

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He's not popular in California relative to Hilary haha. That said, probably loads of D voter apathy there.

The Indiana numbers are worrying (or would be if we didnt know it already) for Trump though. He won it by NINETEEN in 2016. Following the same trend as KY KS MO etc. He's simply not popular outside his base. (and it's why you're seeing states like TX as potential tossups. They aren't that purple, they just hate Trump)
Eg. He won Kentucky by 30 last time out. He'd be lucky to win by 18 this time.
Yeah, fair enough. I didn't actually check how much he won it by last time. But yeah, everything seems to point to the same thing: he simply couldn't increase his coalition but managed to become historically unpopular outside it.

I'm still amazed that Texas is seemingly in play though: Trump's approval is regularly reported to be 90+% among self-identified Republicans and you'd think there's more than enough of those in Texas to get him a comfortable victory. It seems to me, from the outside, that he managed to paint the Republican Party into a corner, precisely because of his brand of Republicanism becoming mainstream in the Republican base but despised by almost everyone else. It will be interesting to see what happens if they lose. Will they double down on Trumpism?
 

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As bad as it sounds, I don’t want him in jail because I don’t trust America to not elect a full blown fascist in the near future who immediately use that precedent to prosecute political enemies.

This guy has 44% approval. +8 trillions in debt in 4 years, racial unrest all around, 230k Covid deaths with 9.1m active cases. 44%.
It could be used that way, but since I assume it's up to the judiciary and not politicians to indict and judge I assume there won't be much of an actual predecent to rely on for a fascist. Those guys usually don't care much about those things anyway, just look at how Trump allready is pushing for it. Personally I believe they (the judiciary and Senate/Congress inquiries) must go after Trump and all his goons, turn every stone and make sure the process is transparent. People need to be held accountable for their actions.

The GOP obviously has a job to do here as well, hopefully the Lincoln Project will be a force for moderation in this process.

Gotta say I really fear for the conquences if Trump is reelected, it's bound to turn really ugly, feels like bloody D-Day coming up.
 

Rado_N

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I always think of the public portrayed in Parks & Rec when Indiana is mentioned, and it feels like it was an accurate showing.
 

owlo

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It could be used that way, but since I assume it's up to the judiciary and not politicians to indict and judge I assume there won't be much of an actual predecent to rely on for a fascist. Those guys usually don't care much about those things anyway, just look at how Trump allready is pushing for it. Personally I believe they (the judiciary and Senate/Congress inquiries) must go after Trump and all his goons, turn every stone and make sure the process is transparent. People need to be held accountable for their actions.

The GOP obviously has a job to do here as well, hopefully the Lincoln Project will be a force for moderation in this process.

Gotta say I really fear for the conquences if Trump is reelected, it's bound to turn really ugly, feels like bloody D-Day coming up.
They do, and that's what makes this so difficult. Trump cannot go to jail; I see absolutely no way to contain the huge security risk he would undoubtedly be there. No doubt he's asked for intelligence asset names in foreign countries etc which he'd happily trade or threaten to trade. That's without even considering what it would do to the country in terms of civil unrest, which would be bad. As a former president, they probably can't "disappear him" either, so in essence it comes down to keeping him far away from the action and under surveillance 24/7. Sending him off to one of his Scottish golf clubs or something to pasture, making it clear that they won't accede to a states request to extradite him. It's the only plausible way I see out of this mess.

It's as @Charlie Foley said, "It’s like the Gotham mobsters bringing in the Joker and now he’s too chaotic."
 

Zehner

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Anyone who has been paying attention to any of the district polling and internal polls knows Biden is going to comfortably win. Not sure why people keep mentioning 2016 as a gazillion different things have changed since then.
People will get lazy if they're too sure Biden wins. That's how Trump became president to begin with. Nobody really believed he'd make it so fewer people felt the absolute urge to vote.
 

SirAF

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Anyone who has been paying attention to any of the district polling and internal polls knows Biden is going to comfortably win. Not sure why people keep mentioning 2016 as a gazillion different things have changed since then.
This
 

KirkDuyt

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Fecking hell, I have no idea why I care so much, but I really really hope Biden wins.

It's probably me being brainwashed by the communist caf.
 

onemanarmy

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Fecking hell, I have no idea why I care so much, but I really really hope Biden wins.

It's probably me being brainwashed by the communist caf.
Any European with common sense would want Biden to win I guess. It will be less fun, more common sense.
 

Mike Smalling

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Fecking hell, I have no idea why I care so much, but I really really hope Biden wins.

It's probably me being brainwashed by the communist caf.
Same. It is a little bit worrying, how invested I am in the election in another country. I may actually suffer from Trump Derangement Syndrome.
 
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