2020 US Elections | Next: GA Senate Runoffs on 5 January

SirAF

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I think 538 did an article on this at one point. It's somewhere around 6-7 points where it becomes extremely unlikely Trump could win. If I recall correctly, at 5 he'd still have a 20% chance or so.
Yeah, that's probably what I was thinking of.
 

owlo

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Texas’s number for R is pretty remarkably consistent if you control for population increases and registration. Between 08/12/16, there’s a roughly 100k increase every cycle (W got more than McCain in 04 but he was incumbent + former governor), in 2018 if you extrapolate Cruz’s number on a typical presidential year turnout, he’d have gotten about 4.7m votes. So let’s say Trump’s floor is roughly 4.8m, Dems need somewhere in the region of 500k votes (assuming party crossovers maintain at about 10%), which I believe is becoming viable at about 64% turnout. Which we might well get to.

@owlo one form of gambling at a time is all I can handle:nervous:
You need a little more granularity on that imo.

My take. That 4.8 floor about right in normal circumstances, but is R+I - In 2016 he got just under 4.7, but carried 88% R and 52% I (and 5% D lol) - Thats a 14 point lead on I.

It's around 15% of the vote in normal turnout. Until around 2018, I was around 50%+ R, but since then it's dropped to under 30%. Biden has a minimum 8 point lead. (22 point swing) Conryn is even more screwed. That fairly reliable R leaning group has been blown away. This is why abbott is running shit scared. High turnout will kill him.
 

InfiniteBoredom

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You need a little more granularity on that imo.

My take. That 4.8 floor about right in normal circumstances, but is R+I - In 2016 he got just under 4.7, but carried 88% R and 52% I (and 5% D lol) - Thats a 14 point lead on I.

It's around 15% of the vote in normal turnout. Until around 2018, I was around 50%+ R, but since then it's dropped to under 30%. Biden has a minimum 8 point lead. (22 point swing) Conryn is even more screwed. That fairly reliable R leaning group has been blown away. This is why abbott is running shit scared. High turnout will kill him.
That is, if you believe Is are truly Is as opposed to hidden partisans who are largely set in their ways. Cruz- Beto was 47-50, in a non-prez year where 3rd party could be more inclined to side with one side over another. If 3rd parties account for 5% this year, that’s essentially an even split, so about a 10 pts swing for Dems, which is still sizeable, but I’ve already taken that into account when extrapolating Beto’s number.

Biden also has a record of underperforming with Hispanics, which make up more than 30% of the state’s population. High turnout is a good sign, but applying the national number to states like TX or FL with their quirks is imo too optimistic.
 

Simbo

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This sounds exciting but wait until we find out that someone called Declan Trimble, who died in 1892, voted for Trump 1.7 million times.
:lol: This was my thought too. What's stopping them just forging a few million mail-in ballots in key states? They'll shut down any post-election investigations.
 

owlo

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That is, if you believe Is are truly Is as opposed to hidden partisans who are largely set in their ways. Cruz- Beto was 47-50, in a non-prez year where 3rd party could be more inclined to side with one side over another. If 3rd parties account for 5% this year, that’s essentially an even split, so about a 10 pts swing for Dems, which is still sizeable, but I’ve already taken that into account when extrapolating Beto’s number.

Biden also has a record of underperforming with Hispanics, which make up more than 30% of the state’s population. High turnout is a good sign, but applying the national number to states like TX or FL with their quirks is imo too optimistic.
I's are generally split into 3 groups themselves. Lean R, Lean D, and I. It's up to 30% with all of those combined, but half of them are essentially partisan. The elasticity it mainly in the final 10-15%. Beto was 51D-39R amongst independents. (Which was evident, as Beto only lost by a couple of points.) Now consider that the total turnout for this election has already exceeded the 2018 Senate Election. My personal opinion is a 10 point I swing is almost outside the realms of possiblity. (That would have Trump winning I by 4.) Swing will be an absolute minimum of 15 points, with 20-25 more likely.
 

Charlie Foley

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Good job it's not a 5 point lead ain't it. (and remember, California hates biden, so it's even bigger than it seems!) :drool:
Oh yeah, I was looking at this a while ago. Copy and pasted this from a text I sent a friend at the time, I believe the following numbers are accurate(!)


Hillary got over a million more votes than Biden did in the 2016 and 2020 California primaries respectively. She beat Trump by a margin of well over 4 million (I think 4.3) votes in CA: for comparison, Obama’s winning margins were 3.2 million in 08 and just over 3 million in 2012. She also won more votes than Obama in either of those elections: 8.75 million for Hillary vs 8.27 in 2008 and 7.85 in 2012. McCain and Romney both got more votes in CA than Trump, too (McCain actually broke 5 million, insane turnout). Hillary’s winning margin was the biggest in CA since FDR, and without CA Trump won the popular vote by 1.5 million.

So, Hillary’s popular vote margin of under 3 million includes a margin increase of 1 million CA voters (doing margin increase rather than margin of victory because a republican isn’t winning California, there will always be a margin of victory) that added nothing for her but to make her popular vote margin of victory bigger by more than 50%.
 

Kentonio

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I claim no responsibility for any monetary loss which stems from that potential course of action. Remember @ItsEssexRob , the Chavs fan who got ruined with his gambling addiction :nervous:
It didn't help that he was incredibly bad at it. If Rob put a bet on something, it was basically a sure fire way of ensuring it would lose.

Also can't believe it's been 5 years since he was here! :houllier:
 

owlo

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It didn't help that he was incredibly bad at it. If Rob put a bet on something, it was basically a sure fire way of ensuring it would lose.

Also can't believe it's been 5 years since he was here! :houllier:
There's no such thing as a loss if margins arent involved!
 

SirAF

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It didn't help that he was incredibly bad at it. If Rob put a bet on something, it was basically a sure fire way of ensuring it would lose.

Also can't believe it's been 5 years since he was here! :houllier:
feck off! Seems like yesterday :lol:
 

berbatrick

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I thought Greenwald’s reply that he was going to have to take the story to another publisher as it was clearly time sensitive was fairly telling. Greenwald didn’t just want to share his observations and critical analysis of media bias in the 2020 elections, he wanted it to have an influence on the election.
massive ego i think, he couldn't believe anybody would say no to the famous greenwald. ordinary journalists get much worse treatment from freshly-hired sub-editors enforcing a word count, entire paragraphs cut without notice. this was a senior editor going into some detail about what he needed to do.
 

The Firestarter

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Of course he can’t but I don’t for a minute believe he didn’t think to nominate 3 justices he didn’t first gather some leverage on.
Probably, however as we can see with his October flop , even officials that he is supposed to own, such as the AG, don't always do as he expects them to.
For a SCOTUS justice, what matters most is legacy, do they really want to be the one to plunge the country into a great uncertainty when anything can happen?
 

InfiniteBoredom

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On the eve of election, shout-out to @InfiniteBoredom. Glad you're still here with us :lol:
2016 was rough :lol:, hungover for a few days, working overtime to pay off rent, then came down with the worst cold imaginable compounded with hay fever a couple of weeks later. Great payoff for being emotionally invested in sth for 18 mths.

And while we are at it, what happened to @Red Dreams ?
 

Pexbo

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massive ego i think, he couldn't believe anybody would say no to the famous greenwald. ordinary journalists get much worse treatment from freshly-hired sub-editors enforcing a word count, entire paragraphs cut without notice. this was a senior editor going into some detail about what he needed to do.
Yeah, to be honest I’m actually surprised he shared those emails considering his editor came across as incredibly diligent, balanced and constructive in his criticisms. I’m not sure what else Greenwald was expecting people to get from reading the exchange. In contrast Greenwald came across as someone who has spent far too long suckling on the Fox News teet. I think at this point he knows his days of serious journalism are long gone and he just wants a chunky retirement fund.
 

Sweet Square

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Yeah, to be honest I’m actually surprised he shared those emails considering his editor came across as incredibly diligent, balanced and constructive in his criticisms. I’m not sure what else Greenwald was expecting people to get from reading the exchange. In contrast Greenwald came across as someone who has spent far too long suckling on the Fox News teet. I think at this point he knows his days of serious journalism are long gone and he just wants a chunky retirement fund.
Yeah if this was true then I don't think he would be spending his days in Brazil under Bolsonaro.
 

Pexbo

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Yeah if this was true then I don't think he would be spending his days in Brazil under Bolsonaro.
I forget he’s on local minimum wage living in a favela and not living in a private retreat in the mountains surrounded by rainforest, no longer making appearances on global news channels and writing articles for numerous print and electronic media.
 

berbatrick

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I forget he’s on local minimum wage living in a favela and not living in a private retreat in the mountains surrounded by rainforest, no longer making appearances on global news channels and writing articles for numerous print and electronic media.
He gets a massive salary from the intercept and I'm not sure if his substack can match it.