Boeing 737 loses contact during flight in Indonesia

rcoobc

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You absolutely are not.
It's a bit misleading because all the data is done per "million miles flown/driven"

I think you are probably right, a car trip to you man's house 5 mins up the road is safer than a flight to America.

Per hour wiki has deaths for air flight @ 30 per billion hours, car travel @ 130 per billion hours.

So if your car trip is 5 mins up the road and the flight is 7 hours long then a car trip is safer.

But of course that's just blindly applying statistics. In reality most fatal air accidents happen in private planes, or in countries with poor safety records. Also, you are likely more likely to die in the first few minutes of your journey than a random middling few minutes. "Have I got my phone? where is it? In the back seat? bam"

Still blindly following statistics, a short journey to the shops is safer than a trip to the USA.

But if the question was what is the safest way to travel to another specific country then it's undoubtedly via aircraft
 

Foxbatt

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Same here.

It's understandable to have fear up there though. All of the stats and prob estimates and strict regulations can't compensate for the total lack of control coupled with being in the air literally (at least on the ground you're driving + feel you can maneuver/escape a dangerous situation: part fallacy)
I am not trying to scare anyone. It's the safest mode of transportation as everything is checked over and over again. All systems are duplicated. Even with all engine failures the flight control systems can be operated.
Where it goes wrong is the human factor in maintenance and a fatigue in a critical component.
The flight data recorders has been found so hopefully we should know what happened.
 

Arruda

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Not true I am afraid.
The safety statistics for air travel are calculated on a per mile basis, or per kilometre.
My point is wrong, I think, as discussed above. But not for that reason. It's precisely because they are calculated on a per kilometre that I thought it was a misconception. What matters for someone who is flying is the stress of that event. If it was more dangerous on a "per journey" base it would make little sense to feel calmer about per km statistics.

Take space flight as an extreme example of that. It's a statistically dangerous activity when compared with other forms of travel, because it's done sparsely and it has gone wrong a few times. If those trips were 10 times longer - but same number of accidents - you'd be 10 times safer on a per mileage basis, but no reason to be less afraid every time you went on one.
 

Karel Podolsky

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I fly like once every two years. Ride to work about 2x 100km a day (4 times a week) for the last 11 years.
I have had 5 minor road accidents.

Still, I would take 1M bike trip any day than one 1000 km flying with plane.
 

Foxbatt

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I fly like once every two years. Ride to work about 2x 100km a day (4 times a week) for the last 11 years.
I have had 5 minor road accidents.

Still, I would take 1M bike trip any day than one 1000 km flying with plane.
Depends on where you drive or ride I guess . I ride a cruiser in Thailand and Philippines a lot. Never have I gone on any ride out of the city and not see a crash.
 

Karel Podolsky

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Depends on where you drive or ride I guess . I ride a cruiser in Thailand and Philippines a lot. Never have I gone on any ride out of the city and not see a crash.
Borneo, Indonesia.
I think bad road condition prevents people from speeding, that helps to minimise fatal road accidents.

I am little bit afraid of height, always a little nervous when the plane takes off, but much more relax when plane about to landing.
 

Ramshock

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Depends on the perspective. That is only true because we spend a lot less time in planes than other transports. Specifically, cars.

When you take a flight you're more likely to die than your average car trip. I am actually a very nervous passenger in cars. Even more in planes, and that makes sense from a statistical point of view.

Flying is only safer when you factor the distance into it. Not knowing this is probably one of the most common misconceptions about air travel.
Wtf with this shit misinformation?
 

Foxbatt

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This is interesting. This is an aircraft that can be flown manually. Could have disengaged the Flight management system and taken manual control. Something must have gone wrong with the flight control systems.
Preminalary accident investigations report could be out soon if the flight data and cockpit voice recorders are available.
I have always thought that the locking of the flight deck is a stupid idea. Simply because the crew has no way of getting inside. Yes some airlines have a secret way for the crew but not all airlines do.
 

R77

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This guy has assembled a summary of sorts from the data. Grim reading.

The following are basic observations:
  • the airplane appears to be operated normally up to the event
  • a lateral upset causing the airplane to turn in the opposite direction appears to be the trigger
  • the airplane nosed over and proceeded into a steep dive, with airspeed increasing well above normally operating limits.
  • while in the dive, the airplane began to turn to the right.
One explanation for this behavior is that the airplane initially rolled to the left, inverted, and continued towards wings level, impacting still turning right.
 

adexkola

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This is interesting. This is an aircraft that can be flown manually. Could have disengaged the Flight management system and taken manual control. Something must have gone wrong with the flight control systems.
Preminalary accident investigations report could be out soon if the flight data and cockpit voice recorders are available.
I have always thought that the locking of the flight deck is a stupid idea. Simply because the crew has no way of getting inside. Yes some airlines have a secret way for the crew but not all airlines do.
What would the crew do? They can't fly the plane. The 2 people who can fly the plane are in the cockpit.

It's a system that's worked extremely well.
 

Scarlett Dracarys

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What would the crew do? They can't fly the plane. The 2 people who can fly the plane are in the cockpit.

It's a system that's worked extremely well.
They can bring them some vodka to calm their nerves.
All jokes aside... the children. They interviewed the father who lost his wife baby. Heartbreaking stuff:(
 

Foxbatt

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What would the crew do? They can't fly the plane. The 2 people who can fly the plane are in the cockpit.

It's a system that's worked extremely well.
The German airlines had the pilot dive into the terrain. Just because once in the USA people got into the flight deck doesn't mean it's going to happen all the time.
If two pilots get incapacitated there is no way for crew to access. Many times people who are pilots fly as passengers. They would have no access to the flight deck.
It's like the banning of liquids of 100 ml Per pax. It's stupid. They know it's stupid but had to show that they were doing something.
 

MDFC Manager

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I am little bit afraid of height, always a little nervous when the plane takes off, but much more relax when plane about to landing.
Interesting, I'm always shitting it while landing. Takeoff is a very calm and comfortable period for me (especially on modern airliners).
 

11101

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The German airlines had the pilot dive into the terrain. Just because once in the USA people got into the flight deck doesn't mean it's going to happen all the time.
If two pilots get incapacitated there is no way for crew to access. Many times people who are pilots fly as passengers. They would have no access to the flight deck.
It's like the banning of liquids of 100 ml Per pax. It's stupid. They know it's stupid but had to show that they were doing something.
If there is no response at all from the flight deck, cabin crew have an access code to get inside.

The only way access can be totally denied is if somebody is in there overriding the access code panel. For that reason most airlines now ensure there are two people in the flight deck at all times.
 

Karel Podolsky

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Interesting, I'm always shitting it while landing. Takeoff is a very calm and comfortable period for me (especially on modern airliners).
Sorry maybe I didn't say it correctly, it's a few seconds after takeoff when the plane a few hundred meters above the ground that scares me much.... I always have the thought that the plane would stall. The fear disappeares when the plane reaches certain speed and height.
 
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Foxbatt

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If there is no response at all from the flight deck, cabin crew have an access code to get inside.

The only way access can be totally denied is if somebody is in there overriding the access code panel. For that reason most airlines now ensure there are two people in the flight deck at all times.
Not really. Most European airlines now don't need to have two in the cockpit. There is no access code in every airline. There is also a manual lock inside.
I know this because I am a regulator. It's stupid to have two people because what is a petite cabin crew going to do if a hefty pilot wants to incapacitate her? Nothing. Eventually they will get rid of the locking of the flight deck just like the way they are going to get rid of the 100 ml of liquid.
 

11101

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Not really. Most European airlines now don't need to have two in the cockpit. There is no access code in every airline. There is also a manual lock inside.
I know this because I am a regulator. It's stupid to have two people because what is a petite cabin crew going to do if a hefty pilot wants to incapacitate her? Nothing. Eventually they will get rid of the locking of the flight deck just like the way they are going to get rid of the 100 ml of liquid.
Then you will also know that a few years ago the locking mechanism did prevent access by a psychotic pilot who wanted to down the aircraft. It's not going anywhere, they may update it, that's all. I imagine there will be some kind of control from the ground, similar to what Boeing have been developing.
 

Foxbatt

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Then you will also know that a few years ago the locking mechanism did prevent access by a psychotic pilot who wanted to down the aircraft. It's not going anywhere, they may update it, that's all. I imagine there will be some kind of control from the ground, similar to what Boeing have been developing.
They already have the technical ability to control from the ground if they really want it. It's that no one wants to give it to a civil authority. Because of national security interests.
 

Arruda

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Wtf with this shit misinformation?
You don't have a clue of what I'm talking about. There is some nuance in that idea. Judging by the tone of your reply you're unlikely to even be able to understand it so feck off.

It's probably wrong, as I admitted below, but I doubt you'll find the stats to prove it. Flight safety data isn't presented in a way that easily allow for that comparison. Other replies to my post understood that.
 

Ramshock

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You don't have a clue of what I'm talking about. There is some nuance in that idea. Judging by the tone of your reply you're unlikely to even be able to understand it so feck off.

It's probably wrong, as I admitted below, but I doubt you'll find the stats to prove it. Flight safety data isn't presented in a way that easily allow for that comparison. Other replies to my post understood that.
The obvious thing to do, if you are one of those thats scared of scientific fact, is to find out how many cars there are on the roads daily and how many deaths from traffic accidents there are then compare that to how many flights are happening everyday and how many of them crash.,
 

Arruda

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The obvious thing to do, if you are one of those thats scared of scientific fact, is to find out how many cars there are on the roads daily and how many deaths from traffic accidents there are then compare that to how many flights are happening everyday and how many of them crash.,
The obvious thing to do is not always the right one. The numbers you would need to answer that question are car trips and airline trips specifically, and the odds of dying in each.

Neither air safety statistics nor car safety statistics are presented on a way that easily allows ascertaining those numbers, specially the ones for cars.

It seems the odds of dying on a plane crash are on the order of 2000 times lower than the odds of dying on a car crash. My reasoning was that the average person probably makes more than 2000ish times more car trips than flight trips. I know I probably do, as I drive a lot (gross estimation some 8 trips per day) and don't fly much.

I grossly misinterpreted some data initially hence admitted my idea was probably wrong. But the idea was to be a bit more nuanced than simply repeating the not-based-on-any-data adage that "you're more likely to die on the trip to the airport than on the flight".
 

Foxbatt

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That looks deliberate
I don't know. It's because of course there are two pilots too. 11000 feet is not even an altitude that needs oxygen. It could be a flight control failure but because they have located the flight data recorders they should know what happened.
This is also why flight decks should not be absolutely locked. The only one time highjackers have used it as a missile was in the USA.
There was also a different sets of instructions for the pilots before that. It was get out of the aircraft as fast as you can. And don't let the passengers get involved. Actually it's better for the passengers to get involved and overpowerer them.
Locking the flight deck has always been a bad idea.
 

matherto

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I love flying but I’ve always hated sudden drops, made me shit scared of rollercoasters as a kid.

If the plane went down like it shows in that video then that’s the worst nightmare, prolonged high-speed drop that you feel in your stomach straight away but this one never goes away until you smash into the ocean, feel for those poor passengers and crew.

As others have said if the engines went out you’d expect the pilots would be able to glide for a while so perhaps a rudder problem or hydraulic/electronic fault jamming everything in the right and down position? Presume though they have redundancies and backups built in which makes me think a deliberate crash.

What was that one that smashed into the Alps a few year back on purpose? Germanwings or something?
 

Foxbatt

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I love flying but I’ve always hated sudden drops, made me shit scared of rollercoasters as a kid.

If the plane went down like it shows in that video then that’s the worst nightmare, prolonged high-speed drop that you feel in your stomach straight away but this one never goes away until you smash into the ocean, feel for those poor passengers and crew.

As others have said if the engines went out you’d expect the pilots would be able to glide for a while so perhaps a rudder problem or hydraulic/electronic fault jamming everything in the right and down position? Presume though they have redundancies and backups built in which makes me think a deliberate crash.

What was that one that smashed into the Alps a few year back on purpose? Germanwings or something?
The Germanwings that crashed into the Alps had one pilot in the flight deck and this ridiculous rule of locking the flight deck meant the other pilot was locked out and couldn't get in. Unless two pilots were involved in it I would say it was not deliberate. If it was then the airline has not been paying attention for the mental state of their crew.
The flight data recorders would show what happened to the elevators and the ailerons ( The one on the wings), or the rudder. These are the three basic controls.
An engine failure is not a huge issue at that altitude at all. The aircraft would have in auto pilot mode and in climb mode. Normally pilots would not be flying it. Pilots don't physically fly commercial aircraft, especially after take off and cruising.
 

The Firestarter

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I don't know. It's because of course there are two pilots too. 11000 feet is not even an altitude that needs oxygen. It could be a flight control failure but because they have located the flight data recorders they should know what happened.
This is also why flight decks should not be absolutely locked. The only one time highjackers have used it as a missile was in the USA.
There was also a different sets of instructions for the pilots before that. It was get out of the aircraft as fast as you can. And don't let the passengers get involved. Actually it's better for the passengers to get involved and overpowerer them.
Locking the flight deck has always been a bad idea.
I am bit confused here, the cockpit door has always had the possibility to be locked in modern aviation times . What changed after 9/11 was that 1) This became mandatory 2) The door was fortified . Are you really suggesting to remove those security precautions?
 

berbatrick

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for the pilots and other knowledgeable people here - wonder if they had selected the wrong autpilot type or something. they were cleared to climb, and also made a turn at the same time, and based on my extensive training at youtube university, that can get messy if they're on the wrong mode.

The German airlines had the pilot dive into the terrain. Just because once in the USA people got into the flight deck doesn't mean it's going to happen all the time.
If two pilots get incapacitated there is no way for crew to access. Many times people who are pilots fly as passengers. They would have no access to the flight deck.
It's like the banning of liquids of 100 ml Per pax. It's stupid. They know it's stupid but had to show that they were doing something.
the other pilot has a code to get in if he's locked out, and a flight crew member must be inside anyway if one of the pilots is missing.

there is zero indication that this could have been prevented by having more people in the cockpit. in the air france crash, the 2 other pilots didn't even realise the co-pilot's mistake until it was already too late. the co-pilot was pulling the nose up through a stall for minutes.
 

Foxbatt

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for the pilots and other knowledgeable people here - wonder if they had selected the wrong autpilot type or something. they were cleared to climb, and also made a turn at the same time, and based on my extensive training at youtube university, that can get messy if they're on the wrong mode.



the other pilot has a code to get in if he's locked out, and a flight crew member must be inside anyway if one of the pilots is missing.

there is zero indication that this could have been prevented by having more people in the cockpit. in the air france crash, the 2 other pilots didn't even realise the co-pilot's mistake until it was already too late. the co-pilot was pulling the nose up through a stall for minutes.
Not really. It depends on the airline and country. As for at that stage of the flight both pilots are in the flight deck. It's still in climb mode.
You put in the climb mode and turning mode which is separate. Now the input has to be read back too by the non flying pilot. The cockpit voice recorder would show what they were speaking inside. Now weather could play a very important role in this too. Even if they can't see outside the instrument would show them what the attitude of the aircraft was.
At this time everything is mere speculation.
 

Foxbatt

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I am bit confused here, the cockpit door has always had the possibility to be locked in modern aviation times . What changed after 9/11 was that 1) This became mandatory 2) The door was fortified . Are you really suggesting to remove those security precautions?
It was changed after 9/11. Yes the Americans pushed it hard for this rule to come after 9/11.
Yes I am saying it's better not to lock it that way where even the pilots can't lock it manually from inside. Now they can lock it manually from inside.
The security should be done on the ground. What is 10 people with a fork going to do against 100 people?
It's the case of the 100 ml of liquid. It's ridiculous. Because anyone can carry on board an empty container more than 100 ml. Two people together can carry more than 100 ml.
 

Arruda

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Very few. The ultimate cause could be pilot error but most of the time, the starting cause is not pilot error. He or they compound it by taking the wrong decisions. That has caused many a crash. But they also have pulled of miracles.
The Air Canada 310 running out of fuel but landing on a disused runway that was a drag racing trip.
The landing on the Hudson River was another one. I met Captain Scully. Very down to earth. Just said it was instinct.
Got all three in this one, which had an emergency unpowered landing on my homeland. Huge celebration around here at the time, still remember the ecstatic passengers being interviewed after landing.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Transat_Flight_236

Maintenance failing, compounded by pilot error, followed by them then skillfully saving the plane with no more room for error.

I think it was the longest glide by a commercial aircraft ever.
 

Foxbatt

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Got all three in this one, which had an emergency unpowered landing on my homeland. Huge celebration around here at the time, still remember the ecstatic passengers being interviewed after landing.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Transat_Flight_236

Maintenance failing, compounded by pilot error, followed by them then skillfully saving the plane with no more room for error.

I think it was the longest glide by a commercial aircraft ever.
Yes it was made more amazing because they had just once chance to attempt a landing. Most of these pilots have come up from single engine prop planes to twin engine props and then two jets. The principle of flying is the same. `of course a lot of hours in the flight simulator and have to pass the SIM before they can get back into the cockpit too of a real aircraft.
 

Karel Podolsky

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I love flying but I’ve always hated sudden drops, made me shit scared of rollercoasters as a kid.

If the plane went down like it shows in that video then that’s the worst nightmare, prolonged high-speed drop that you feel in your stomach straight away but this one never goes away until you smash into the ocean, feel for those poor passengers and crew.

As others have said if the engines went out you’d expect the pilots would be able to glide for a while so perhaps a rudder problem or hydraulic/electronic fault jamming everything in the right and down position? Presume though they have redundancies and backups built in which makes me think a deliberate crash.

What was that one that smashed into the Alps a few year back on purpose? Germanwings or something?
I would rather in that Germanwings plane than in this nose-diving Sriwijaya Air or that US cargo in Bagram Airport Afganistan.