Did it go through all 27 parliaments? Eyes to the left an all that?
Brexited | the worst threads live the longest
- Thread starter Silva
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The almost universally accepted view now seems to be that whatever else it may do, a 'No deal' Brexit will force the UK out of its comfort zone. This may also be true of the EU, whether to perhaps a greater or lesser extent is unsure.
There is already talk of the UK splitting up, Scotland obviously looking at independence, possible a way can be found to unite Ireland (big if here since they cannot even get Stormont up and running, but its possible), Wales may also press for independence and there could even be an English Parliament as well within then what would be a true UK Parliament. The likelihood of 'political landscape changes' appear to be endless; however the economic facts will definitely change and there will be winners and losers.
Yet history shows us that as a trading nation, a nation of shopkeepers as Bonaparte once remarked, we will survive. As long we are still be able to sell our wares and services, providing we produce these at the right time and the right price we will find markets to trade in. No one like change, even those who will eventually benefit from the change initially resist it (as someone great once said).
The truth seems to be there is now no going back from Brexit, bridges are being burned even as we contemplate the nearing of the 31st Oct... unless of course its all fake news!
There is already talk of the UK splitting up, Scotland obviously looking at independence, possible a way can be found to unite Ireland (big if here since they cannot even get Stormont up and running, but its possible), Wales may also press for independence and there could even be an English Parliament as well within then what would be a true UK Parliament. The likelihood of 'political landscape changes' appear to be endless; however the economic facts will definitely change and there will be winners and losers.
Yet history shows us that as a trading nation, a nation of shopkeepers as Bonaparte once remarked, we will survive. As long we are still be able to sell our wares and services, providing we produce these at the right time and the right price we will find markets to trade in. No one like change, even those who will eventually benefit from the change initially resist it (as someone great once said).
The truth seems to be there is now no going back from Brexit, bridges are being burned even as we contemplate the nearing of the 31st Oct... unless of course its all fake news!
About 18 months ago.
Ouch... even by Corbyn's normal standards that's a bad poll
Labour are going to be smashed in the upcoming election if hes still the leader
To be honest, I don't get the feeling that Corbyn is fussed enough about Brexit to compromise on his current stance. Firstly he's a Brexiteer. Secondly he leads a party who's electorate is pretty divided on issue, so no need for him to over-extend to either side. Thirdly if a no-deal Brexit happens and is (inevitably) greatly damaging, he hopes he can milk it by pinning it on the Tories. So I reckon he'll just stick to it, until Brexit happens.
I don't see Tory MPs rebelling to the point that they give him the keys to #10, so that'll be that. Personally I think Ken Clarke in a temporary government to avert no deal makes sense. It's still a Tory MP, so it will entice Tories to rebellion. His stance will anyway be moderated by the fact that the bulk of his support would be coming from Labour MPs who could withdraw support any minute and bring it down.
What matters more is the remit of the temp govt. They all agree on applying for extension to avert no deal. But then Corbyn wants a GE, Swinson wants a referendum and god knows what the Tory rebels want.
I think it's just a countdown towards the inevitable.
I don't see Tory MPs rebelling to the point that they give him the keys to #10, so that'll be that. Personally I think Ken Clarke in a temporary government to avert no deal makes sense. It's still a Tory MP, so it will entice Tories to rebellion. His stance will anyway be moderated by the fact that the bulk of his support would be coming from Labour MPs who could withdraw support any minute and bring it down.
What matters more is the remit of the temp govt. They all agree on applying for extension to avert no deal. But then Corbyn wants a GE, Swinson wants a referendum and god knows what the Tory rebels want.
I think it's just a countdown towards the inevitable.
Well surprisingly enough it's hard for the opposition party to pass legislation. If Labour got more seats in a GE then there would be more MPs to vote for it.
If Labour are not successful in passing a deal through parliament then they will back remain over doing what the Tories are doing and trying to push no-deal through.
I don't get why remainers want Ken Clarke as temporary PM when he has said he'd have no plans for a 2nd ref. If you're a remainer and you back him over Corbyn then you're a fecking idiot to put it bluntly.
It's a mess, isn't it? I can't see any temporary government lasting long enough and having the unity to agree upon and pass the legislation for a second referendum. A general election is more likely in my view but even then there's no guarantees that could harbour a consensus. My guess/hope is that there's an achievable compromise with Corbyn willing to let a figure like Clarke lead a temporary government in return for the Lib Dems etc acquiescing to a GE preceding a second referendum.
SO if the UK doesn't ratify the agreement, nothing we can do, the UK is not the problem. If EU doesn't agree on renegotiating and it goes to No deal (is the default option of UK actions triggering article 50) and needs to put a hard border under the WTA rules (that the EU and UK ratified as an international treaty) is the EU that we should blame
hypocritical much?
Personally think Corbyn is a waste of space but having him as temp PM in order to block no deal I could live with. With emphasis on temp. However I can’t see enough tories going for this.
The closer it gets the more depressing the thought. How anyone still thinks that things like paying more for less choice, lack of meds, hospital staff shortages, etc etc etc is a good exchange for “taking back control” is a good idea is beyond me. I refer of course to the ordinary man and not those sly pricks who stand to profit from it
Well a lot of Remainers would see us leave the EU if the alternative was a Corbyn government. They are fully aware of the legitimacy having even a temporary seat in No. 10 would bestow upon Corbyn.
And yet what Johnson seems to be proposing to the EU is a modified version of the WA. Assuming the EU don’t modify it (and I don’t see how they can although perhaps there’s a fudge instead) the options are still revoke, fudged WA, no deal. The WA is still in play. (Edit: and I mean fudged not renegotiated - perhaps there’s fiddling with words and timescales on the backstop which leave its fundamentals unchanged but are enough for Johnson to save face.)
Agreed although I’m not sure how much legitimacy it’d give the remain side having such a disastrous leader fronting it, even if temporarily.
Yes but it would need an overall majority for Labour to do that and for all their MPs to back it. The Tories had many more seats and partners and still couldn't get anything through. Also to remember what he is proposing won't be possible but let's imagine it would.
What does backing remain mean and stopping no deal - hope that there is a referendum and that remain would win it and then he revokes A50?
They don't even want control, open borders , no control over their imports, they want to keep the same regulations, democracy out the window, they could have their 3rd unelected PM quite soon. The image of utopia is blurred.
The reality is that a GE preceding a referendum doesn't really suit Labour or Lib Dems.
Labour with Corbyn in charge will tank in a GE. Especially one that takes place before Brexit. They will lose their hardcore remainers to Lib Dems and their hardcore Brexiteers to either TBP (for those that kind find the heart to vote Tory) or the Tories. This would be a single issue GE and they're sitting on the fence. They will still get plenty MPs because there's always a bunch of traditional Labour voters who are Labour first beyond policies or faces. But any chance of Corbyn becoming PM will hinge on support from Swinson and it's doubtful he'll get it after erecting his back. He's probably playing the long game for the election after the next and who knows i the party will still support him.
Lib Dems want to stop Brexit and fear a GE will not deliver the needed result, because in essence the two biggest parties are pro-Brexit atm. So they want the referendum to settle the issue before a GE. Who can they support after a GE with Brexit still undecided? Corbyn who wants a long extension, renegotiation (prolonging the uncertainty for gods knows how many more years) and then putting it for a referendum backing leave? Or Boris who's after no-deal Brexit? You can see why they feel that going to a Ref now is by far their best chance to cancel Brexit.
Labour have to make their publicly facing post-GE plans assume a majority for obvious reasons. I'm sure they have an idea of what they want to do if they didn't achieve that. Same for whether or not they'd achieve a new and "improved" deal that they can present to the public.
Stopping no-deal means having a referendum where no-deal is not a choice.
Backing remain would mean that Labour would support the remain choice in the 2nd ref in their campaigning.
Regardless of whether they back remain, if remain won a 2nd ref they would honour the result and revoke A50
Personally I wouldn't mind him either. But the problem as you said is that it doesn't work because Tory MPs won't rebel to that extend, even if Swinson buckles under pressure and gives in. He still needs some Tory rebels especially as there might be rebels from his side as well
I don't see how they can be for both. Any form of Brexit will be a disaster for the UK and especially for the people Labour are supposed to represent.
But anyway, I would pay to witness Corbyn sign the letter of revocation.
People will get a sharp shock when the fuel shortages kick in
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-4...uk&link_location=live-reporting-correspondent
Russian fuel eh? I wonder why they meddled in the referendum..
They are pro remain but also pro respecting the result of the original referendum which is also where I stand. It's a ridiculous situation to be in but that's the Conservative party's fault for having the referendum in the first place and opening Pandora's box.
Tory remainers are getting such an easy ride in this. Corbyn expected to stand down, lib Dems expected to support Corbyn. Labour MPs expected to support a Tory caretaker PM. But no one ever expects Tories to do the right thing. Remainers should be putting more pressure on them rather than Corbyn/Lib dems.
Edit: of course Jo Swinson is partly to blame for this by saying it for them.
Edit: of course Jo Swinson is partly to blame for this by saying it for them.
The UK is FAR from blameless. Incompetence is the word which best describes the UK parliament(s).
Surely the logical thing would be to keep the tariff but drop the tax at the pump by 5p in the pound or make it vat exempt (there is a vote winner)
Yeah cause Tory MPs would have otherwise supported a Corbyn govt, if Swinson hadn’t told them not too
I agree that they get an easier ride indeed, but there’s no great mystery to it. In the public’s eyes Tory = No Deal atm. So the onus is on the parties that want Remain or Soft Brexit to come to a workable solution.
I think he wants a no-deal. Will want to go down as the PM who actually delivered what the people voted for. Regardless of consequences.
Roll eyes all you want, regardless of what they would have done anyway the fact is she made it easier for them to say no and she made it easier for them to not have to justify their position in doing so.Yeah cause Tory MPs would have otherwise supported a Corbyn govt, if Swinson hadn’t told them not too
I agree that they get an easier ride indeed, but there’s no great mystery to it. In the public’s eyes Tory = No Deal atm. So the onus is on the parties that want Remain or Soft Brexit to come to a workable solution.
We've heard that before, though. Labour will definitely not get a majority on their own but there's no reason why an election would not result in a composition more favourable to opposing No Deal and/or Remain. It's the only solution as I see it. I don't see why the Lib Dems fear a GE but seem so willing for a second referendum. There's every chance the answer comes back unchanged. What then? To me, it makes most sense to try and get a more favourable alliance in the HoC before a referendum on the basis that you might not get the answer you want.
During the leadership campaign BoJo was claiming the atmosphere had change within EU and that the EU was willing to negotiate the Irish backstop. Now BoJo is claiming that the EU is unwilling to renegotiate because of Tory remainers trying to stop a hard Brexit. Further, BoJo accuses the EU of playing hardball. This from the man threatening not to pay the 36billion divorce bill as part of his negotiation tactics.
BoJo is a bullshitter who’s completely out of his dept.
BoJo is a bullshitter who’s completely out of his dept.
He is a bluffer and the EU knows it.
Bluffer, bullshitter, liar, fantasist, egocentric, untrustworthy, but he can speak some Latin.
Or what sounds like Latin....
Is Paul the Wolf still trying?
The fact that you've heard it before is no counter argument on its own.
I explained to you why the Lib Dems fear a GE before a Referendum. Because the two major parties are pro-Brexit and they have a lot of loyal, generational voters in a way the Remain parties don't. Not to mention media exposure and funding donations. Something reflected in how they (Tory + Labour) currently control 558/650 MPs which is not indicative of how the country voted in the referendum (48/52). There's no indication that Lib Dems, SNP, Greens and various Independents will create enough swing in a GE to form a coalition of their own in the HoC. However it only requires a very small swing to upturn the result of the referendum.
As for your statement "There's every chance the answer comes back unchanged".... that holds 0 ground. Because it certainly won't be the same question asked. We're past Leave - Remain. There's 3 options now: Revoke, Sign the WAB, No Deal. Which of the 3 (maybe all 3?) we would see in a ballot would be the subject of negotiation. Obviously Lib Dems want to see no-deal removed and that's part of the price for supporting an interim govt.
So please, explain to me how a 2nd Ref with no-deal off the table could deliver worse results for Remainers and the Lib Dems than a GE? The worst case scenario of such a 2nd Referendum (WAB signing) is actually a better result than Corbyn trying his own hand at Brexit over the next 3-4 years. In fact, even with all 3 options on the ballot and an STV system, the chance of a no-deal result would be considerably smaller than the chance of another Tory govt emerging from the GE to push ahead with no-deal.
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I'm not sure. I suspect Deal is a more electorally positive message, especially if he's been careful to prep the ground with all sorts of no deal bad consequences beforehand (while pretending it's not true/leaked by Hammond). He's a useless administrator but he is better at this kind of manipulative shit than May was. I think if he reckons if he preps the ground right, he can get a fudged WA through (fudged on the details not the fundamentals) and rebadged as something else, and go to the country on it. Everyone gives a sigh of relief, he finds some way to buy off Farage who wants nothing more than to be inside the tent, and he wins the applause.
And if he doesn't, well he gets to blame everyone else, and go to the country on that. But I think the former is what he'd prefer.
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Strange that
Having read what you've put you're probably right about the Lib Dems rationale. I still don't see a second referendum passing before a GE though. That's my main point. The Lib Dems are probably going to have to accept that reality; unless they truly are prepared to accept No Deal. With the present state of the HoC I'd say it's almost impossible to secure a temporary government that is able to both agree upon the details of a second referendum and pass the necessary legislation for it, even if Labour backs it wholeheartedly.
That depends on how many the Tory Rebels are. And the number of rebels will depend upon what is offered. And regardless of what Swinson does, she only has 14 MPs, Corbyn will need the SNP and some Tory rebels anyway. Otherwise there's no temp govt, GE doesn't happen and Boris stays on until the Queen sacks him even if he loses the no confidence. And the Queen won't sack him.
Those Tory rebels are obviously not very keen to put Corbyn at #10. And some would probably feel that by going to the polls while they are openly rebelling against their own party, they might be at high risk of deselection. Whereas more Tory MPs could probably support an interim government under Clarke that goes for a referendum first, implements the result, and then goes for a GE after.
Corbyn's main agenda anyway is social reform and Brexit gets in the way of this, particularly as it's a divisive issue within his own electorate more so than others'. His lukewarm stance, trying to appease both, is driving him and Labour down in the polls. Going into a GE with Brexit democratically "sorted" should be a reprieve for him. But I fear he prefers the crash and burn of no-deal because a) he's a brexiteer and b) he feels that Tories and Lib Dems would suffer in a post-no deal GE more than himself is suffering at the moment.
He probably feels he could recapture a lot of the current swing towards the Lib Dems due to Brexit becoming the dominant issue. Once that's done and Lib Dems have failed at their mission statement, why vote for them? But obviously his attempt at social reform would be doomed if Britain is suffering from post-no deal, harsh recession. He must know this. So I have to wonder if his personal ambition to become PM is overriding his morals, as has happened with BoJo.
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