Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

[Buster15]

That's the key word, we need a party based on common sense and decency!!

Totally agree but what we need and what we get are two different things.
Unfortunately people don't go into politics to do such things.
Most are career politicians and it is simply a job.

 

[Adisa]

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Does anyone need anymore proof that this is a disaster?

 

[Adebesi]

I think a lot of people get into politics with noble intentions, but the system beats it out of them sooner or later.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Gwynne's Twitter says he was paired, as it happens. I'm surprised it didn't get a majority- it sends a poor message outwith the UK about MPs' willingness to work co-operatively in this situation.

We all know what Mrs May intends to do, she's banking on getting her way at the very last moment. It's like some awful game of chicken.

This is the main point, the UK parliament are showing no signs of coming together to have a single goal.
May is still determined to get her deal through.
ERG & DUP desperately want no deal.
Corbyn stands up and repeats his unicorn address which everyone , apart from his disciples, knows is impossible.

Until parliament stops playing party politics I don't see how the EU will unanimously grant an extension.
I'm sure they think the outside world can't see what they are doing.

 

[Mihajlovic]

Revoking article 50 would end this nightmare instantaneously.

 

[Adebesi]

This is the main point, the UK parliament are showing no signs of coming together to have a single goal.
May is still determined to get her deal through.
ERG & DUP desperately want no deal.
Corbyn stands up and repeats his unicorn address which everyone , apart from his disciples, knows is impossible.

Until parliament stops playing party politics I don't see how the EU will unanimously grant an extension.
I'm sure they think the outside world can't see what they are doing.

Dont they just grant an extension anyway, in the end, because of the carnage no deal Brexit unleashes in Northern Ireland?

I mean, not saying "The EU wants a deal as much as we did, they will blink first" or anything. Of course, if it is going to be a no deal then it is going to be a no deal, the EU will not back down. But while the UK is still ostensibly looking for a solution I think the EU's reserves of patience will prove pretty deep, because they, and particularly RoI, genuinely dont want that Pandora's Box being opened.

 

[Honest John]

If just one of the 27 votes against an extension then the choice becomes:

The EU/May WA
No Deal Brexit
Withdraw A50

That's it.

2 out of 3 of those the EU could live with.

They may take a chance.

 

[sun_tzu]

Still no assurance that Bercow will allow MV3 let alone 4.

true... My gut feel is he will allow 3 based upon no deal now being against the express wishes of the house (material change in circumstances)

My gut feel is he will also allow MV4 as we will be less than 48 hours from a no deal with no clue as to what to do

But as you say he might not - plus i suspect people will throw a plethora of amendments at both stages and again it will be at his discretion which ones go forwards to a vote.

Would be interesting if they finally tagged on the amendment with the aproval referendum (mays deal or remain) and if labour would finally back it then it could force the pm to the eu leaders the next day with a way to get her deal passed but subject to an approval long enough to allow for the referendum - would leave the problem of EU elections but I guess they can fudge that somehow?

that said im not sure if Corbyn will ever formally back the referendum vote but you would have to assume that MV3 could well be the last time to do so and it could well be now or never

 

[Maticmaker]

This is the main point, the UK parliament are showing no signs of coming together to have a single goal.
May is still determined to get her deal through.
ERG & DUP desperately want no deal.
Corbyn stands up and repeats his unicorn address which everyone , apart from his disciples, knows is impossible.

Until parliament stops playing party politics I don't see how the EU will unanimously grant an extension.
I'm sure they think the outside world can't see what they are doing.

If they ever did have any sense of worry about the outside world its long since evaporated. Despite the "Will of the People' and similar "A Peoples vote" comments, they do not seem even worried too much now about what their own populace thinks, only those who share their views. This lack of concern is not confined to the so called extremist (on ether side) the ERG or the PVO; all MP's are now like rats in a maze they are desperately seeking a way out of a trap they made for themselves.

I've have not a great deal of compassion for the EU, it is a flawed model that has repeatedly refused to change its ways, but I can see their frustration with the HoP. Granting any kind of extension to A50 is not IMO good... for the EU; despite the fond belief in a few quarters it might lead to something better. It risks injecting even greater turmoil into its own Elections which are already looking fraught and will not solve anything just kick the can even further down the road, hardening even more (if its possible) the mind sets of both sides.

IMO the EU has to be the grown up in the room and cancel its own WA saying; "No extension, Leave with No Deal or withdraw your A50 application" and decide before the 29th March. There could be one final vote on this in the HoP, a free vote for all MP's (one thing May and Corbyn might agree on) and then MP's encouraged to vote as their constituencies did, or according to their personal beliefs and be prepared to live with the consequences.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Dont they just grant an extension anyway, in the end, because of the carnage no deal Brexit unleashes in Northern Ireland?

I mean, not saying "The EU wants a deal as much as we did, they will blink first" or anything. Of course, if it is going to be a no deal then it is going to be a no deal, the EU will not back down. But while the UK is still ostensibly looking for a solution I think the EU's reserves of patience will prove pretty deep, because they, and particularly RoI, genuinely dont want that Pandora's Box being opened.

I understand what you mean but I think the patience has been running thin for quite a while and at the end of the day everyone has to move on.
It is possible that this uncertainty could go on for years and there has to be a cut-off point somewhere.
How much patience have they got.

In some ways the uncertainty is worse than no deal and they're looking forward to progressing, rather than have this hanging over them indefinitely.

 

[RedChip]

true... My gut feel is he will allow 3 based upon no deal now being against the express wishes of the house (material change in circumstances)

My gut feel is he will also allow MV4 as we will be less than 48 hours from a no deal with no clue as to what to do

But as you say he might not - plus i suspect people will throw a plethora of amendments at both stages and again it will be at his discretion which ones go forwards to a vote.

Would be interesting if they finally tagged on the amendment with the aproval referendum (mays deal or remain) and if labour would finally back it then it could force the pm to the eu leaders the next day with a way to get her deal passed but subject to an approval long enough to allow for the referendum - would leave the problem of EU elections but I guess they can fudge that somehow?

that said im not sure if Corbyn will ever formally back the referendum vote but you would have to assume that MV3 could well be the last time to do so and it could well be now or never

He might if more labour MPs threaten to defect. He is demuring again now that the threat of defections appears to have died.

 

[Kentonio]

IMO the EU has to be the grown up in the room and cancel its own WA saying; "No extension, Leave with No Deal or withdraw your A50 application" and decide before the 29th March. There could be one final vote on this in the HoP, a free vote for all MP's (one thing May and Corbyn might agree on) and then MP's encouraged to vote as their constituencies did, or according to their personal beliefs and be prepared to live with the consequences.

That would achieve nothing more than to ensure we left with no deal, and to cause a huge drop in British public support towards the EU. Not to mention vindicate all the leavers who have claimed the EU conducted its business via bullying individual states.

 

[Adebesi]

I understand what you mean but I think the patience has been running thin for quite a while and at the end of the day everyone has to move on.
It is possible that this uncertainty could go on for years and there has to be a cut-off point somewhere.
How much patience have they got.

In some ways the uncertainty is worse than no deal and they're looking forward to progressing, rather than have this hanging over them indefinitely.

I understand what you mean too. As you say, at some point someone has to pronounce this process dead, at some point someone draws a line. And with the 27 needing unanimity there is a significant risk that moment comes now. But I just feel solidarity with Ireland will win the day at this stage and we'll get some kind of extension. If for no other reason than they arent particularly prepared for no deal either and they can use a short extension to make final preparations their end - particularly for RoI. I mean, if we crash out we need a hard border in Ireland in two weeks, right? Surely some preparation is needed to get that infrastructure in place?

 

[Maticmaker]

That would achieve nothing more than to ensure we left with no deal, and to cause a huge drop in British public support towards the EU. Not to mention vindicate all the leavers who have claimed the EU conducted its business via bullying individual states.

What the majority of MPs wanting to remain... how do you get to that conclusion?

Of course the EU does 'bully' individual states, it would never get anything done if it didn't!!

 

[Kentonio]

What the majority of MPs wanting to remain... how do you get to that conclusion?

Because it would be seen as blackmail, it would cause a massive public opinion shift, and MP's are nothing if not extremely attuned to political wind changes. The only reason we're in the chaos we are now is because the public are just as divided as the politicians.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

I understand what you mean too. As you say, at some point someone has to pronounce this process dead, at some point someone draws a line. And with the 27 needing unanimity there is a significant risk that moment comes now. But I just feel solidarity with Ireland will win the day at this stage and we'll get some kind of extension. If for no other reason than they arent particularly prepared for no deal either and they can use a short extension to make final preparations their end - particularly for RoI. I mean, if we crash out we need a hard border in Ireland in two weeks, right? Surely some preparation is needed to get that infrastructure in place?

A short extension seems more likely than a long one but there is also the responsibility of the signatories of the GFA to uphold it whether there is a deal or not. This has to be resolved whatever happens. Possibly some kind of border in the Irish Sea? There has to be an answer eventually.

 

[Adebesi]

A short extension seems more likely than a long one but there is also the responsibility of the signatories of the GFA to uphold it whether there is a deal or not. This has to be resolved whatever happens. Possibly some kind of border in the Irish Sea? There has to be an answer eventually.

Would be too absurd if we ended up with a border in the Irish Sea, after we spent the last year tying ourselves in knots by refusing to accept that very outcome.

 

[Maticmaker]

Because it would be seen as blackmail, it would cause a massive public opinion shift, and MP's are nothing if not extremely attuned to political wind changes. The only reason we're in the chaos we are now is because the public are just as divided as the politicians.

I think we are well beyond that now with the British public's perception of the EU. In any case if the EU's stance was as I described, then many Briton's would see it as the right thing to do to end this nightmare of uncertainty, for both sides...as I say the EU being the grown up in the room and the decision would still rest with the HoP and our MP's who claim they want to rest control of Brexit from May!

 

[cyberman]

This is the main point, the UK parliament are showing no signs of coming together to have a single goal.
May is still determined to get her deal through.
ERG & DUP desperately want no deal.
Corbyn stands up and repeats his unicorn address which everyone , apart from his disciples, knows is impossible.

Until parliament stops playing party politics I don't see how the EU will unanimously grant an extension.
I'm sure they think the outside world can't see what they are doing.

I don't think the DUP want a hard border. It'll trigger a border poll with the republicans more determined than ever to get their united Ireland. Couple that with the Unionists who would splinter off and vote to remain in the EU after seeing their opinions ignored by the DUP themselves so it's only one side of that vote that would have a sizeable percentage of their voters be potentially undecided.
That's a huge risk to be taking.

 

[Dobba]

What an amazing couple of days.

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[sun_tzu]

A short extension seems more likely than a long one but there is also the responsibility of the signatories of the GFA to uphold it whether there is a deal or not. This has to be resolved whatever happens. Possibly some kind of border in the Irish Sea? There has to be an answer eventually.

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I read that as as a short extension to ratify the deal as it is now... otherwise a long extension

Basically if MV3 passes ok go with a short extension

If it fails (and it probably will) then the EU say go on 29th or start a new negotiation based on new redlines, or with a new government, or show us you are having a referendum

Which will probably involve MV4 on wed 27th about 40 hours before we leave...

basically may pushing it to the last moment of my deal or an extension... but still with no deal as the default and the ERG etc trying to make sure that happens

My gut feel is that if labour moves the official position to Mays deal subject to a referendum there may be the votes to get that past... but that she would rather roll the dice on a general election than let that happen and so would corbyn

Extension to 30th June would allow for a GE I think (though clearly not much time for a new government to do anything)

Id say 35% we have a GE (most probably a hung parliament and no further forwards)
30% we have a 2nd referendum (close to 50-50 and nothing really solved)
25% may gets her deal through and we move on to fighting about an actual trade deal that simply wont be close to being completed in the timeframe and therefore nothing much changes
10% we get no deal in which case we panic and start trying to do an actual trade deal ASAP and nothing much changes

to be honest I think its going to drag on for a long time whatever way they fudge something

 

[Adebesi]

How do you define "when all else fails" though? There's always another option, there's always time for another parliamentary vote on May's deal.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Would be too absurd if we ended up with a border in the Irish Sea, after we spent the last year tying ourselves in knots by refusing to accept that very outcome.

Agreed but does May now need the DUP or care about them any longer, if she hadn't had the disastrous 2017 GE result I bet this wouldn't have been a problem.

 

[Adebesi]

Agreed but does May now need the DUP or care about them any longer, if she hadn't had the disastrous 2017 GE result I bet this wouldn't have been a problem.

I remember saying the same thing a few weeks back, I think someone said I probably underestimated how much English MPs would resist that outcome. But yes, it has seemed like the only realistic way forward right from the beginning.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

I don't think the DUP want a hard border. It'll trigger a border poll with the republicans more determined than ever to get their united Ireland. Couple that with the Unionists who would splinter off and vote to remain in the EU after seeing their opinions ignored by the DUP themselves so it's only one side of that vote that would have a sizeable percentage of their voters be potentially undecided.
That's a huge risk to be taking.

What is the highest priority for the DUP, to leave the EU or to maintain the GFA?

 

[sun_tzu]

What is the highest priority for the DUP, to leave the EU or to maintain the GFA?

This is the same dup who walked out of the talks that lead to the gfa right...

 

[cyberman]

What is the highest priority for the DUP, to leave the EU or to maintain the GFA?

To leave the EU without a border.
They have to play to the gallery over this, we will not be seperated etc, but they would snatch any chance they could to bluff their way out if imo.
It's why they're always backing the no border / future technology rabbit hole. They're already blaming Ireland and the EU for the border going up. That's not posturing in my opinion, that's how they genuinely feel.

 

[stevoc]

This is the same dup who walked out of the talks that lead to the gfa right...

Plus the DUP were the only party that campaigned for people to vote against the GFA.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

This is the same dup who walked out of the talks that lead to the gfa right...

To leave the EU without a border.
They have to play to the gallery over this, we will not be seperated etc, but they would snatch any chance they could to bluff their way out if imo.
It's why they're always backing the no border / future technology rabbit hole. They're already blaming Ireland and the EU for the border going up. That's not posturing in my opinion, that's how they genuinely feel.

Plus the DUP were the only party that campaigned for people to vote against the GFA.

Hmm.
Well the only way to leave the EU and not have a border is to stay in the customs union, but they don't want this either.

 

[Honest John]

Agreed but does May now need the DUP or care about them any longer, if she hadn't had the disastrous 2017 GE result I bet this wouldn't have been a problem.

The DUP and ERG have stabbed her in the back. She's a gonna in any case. Normal politics is fecked. Why would she want to be a part of it one moment after she gets her deal thru? If she does that she can say she's delivered Brexit.

She can give the ERG/DUP both the finger by offering Labour a GE for votes on her deal. From Labour's standpoint they get a tilt at becoming a government. Plus the WA is NOT the final destination - albeit a subservient route to it - and they will get to shape the future relationship (if they win). May could take that chance.

Her best outcome would be that Labour grab the opportunity, vote her deal over the line then lose the GE. She's going to be pariah in all scenarios so why not sell her soul to the devil to deliver her raison d'etre.

 

[Sweet Square]

The DUP would love a hard border in the North. They are a far right unionist party who are shitting it that the North will soon be a Catholic majority. Once a border a goes up its very hard to take down again.

 

[rcoobc]

I'd love to know what will happen if one of the countries reject an extension

And we're really left with:-

No deal
Mays deal
Cancel article 50 (no time for a 2nd ref)

 

[Honest John]

I'd love to know what will happen if one of the countries reject an extension

And we're really left with:-

No deal
Mays deal
Cancel article 50 (no time for a 2nd ref)

That's exactly how I see it.

As I have said the EU would happily live with 2 out of three of those choices. They might take that chance and ensure the request is refused. People like Orban may block it anyway.

 

[JPRouve]

I'd love to know what will happen if one of the countries reject an extension

And we're really left with:-

No deal
Mays deal
Cancel article 50 (no time for a 2nd ref)

Depending on the reason for the extension rejection, the UK could make a last adjustment in May's deal that would be followed by an emergency EU council summit. It's difficult to tell without more information about the reasons behind the extension and the related rejection.

 

[Honest John]

 

[Paul the Wolf]

The DUP and ERG have stabbed her in the back. She's a gonna in any case. Normal politics is fecked. Why would she want to be a part of it one moment after she gets her deal thru? If she does that she can say she's delivered Brexit.

She can give the ERG/DUP both the finger by offering Labour a GE for votes on her deal. From Labour's standpoint they get a tilt at becoming a government. Plus the WA is NOT the final destination - albeit a subservient route to it - and they will get to shape the future relationship (if they win). May could take that chance.

Her best outcome would be that Labour grab the opportunity, vote her deal over the line then lose the GE. She's going to be pariah in all scenarios so why not sell her soul to the devil to deliver her raison d'etre.

I agree she's a goner when the final decision occurs.

As you say the WA is not the final destination but it seems to be lost on parliament, the future relationship afterwards can be moulded if the deal gets over the line. Going against it is only for remainers or no dealers.

 

[sun_tzu]

I agree she's a goner when the final decision occurs.

As you say the WA is not the final destination but it seems to be lost on parliament, the future relationship afterwards can be moulded if the deal gets over the line. Going against it is only for remainers or no dealers.

she will announce her departure pretty quickly though I suspect she will serve out the time whilst Gove, Johnson, Mogg and probably another handful (Javid, Hunt, Rudd etc) have a big bun fight probably ending with with theor appointment at the conservative conference in september / October... at which point we will probably start saber rattling over the actual free trade deal before inevitably gashing it all up

 

[Maticmaker]

I'd love to know what will happen if one of the countries reject an extension

And we're really left with:-

No deal
Mays deal
Cancel article 50 (no time for a 2nd ref)

May's deal still needs an extension, if only a short technical one to pass legislation, if there is no extension of any kind its;

No Deal
or
Cancel A50

Which is where we came in with the original referendum, Leave or Remain!!

 

[Smores]

It's the fecking delay thats infuriating, there's just no need for another several days to pass without any progress.

 

[afrocentricity]

It's the fecking delay thats infuriating, there's just no need for another several days to pass without any progress.

Shambles...