Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

[MikeUpNorth]

It won’t pass though will it?

It's got a chance, if the DUP are onboard.

 

[Raulduke]

How much influence do the UDA and UVF still have? Although they aren't active as paramilitaries do they still wield influence over the community in terms of voting at elections?

They are very much still active within working class loyalist communities and hold huge influence over voting come election time in those communities. After the DUP lost East belfast to Alliance a few years ago the paramilitaries were mobilised to stoke up trouble during the flag protests and pin the blame on Alliance which in no small part contributed to the DUP regaining that seat at the next election.

 

[Rooney24]

Looks like its done. All down to Parliament now.

 

[Adisa]

May getting into bed with the DUP is the worst mistake of this whole brexit process.

 

[Honest John]

They are very much still active within working class loyalist communities and hold huge influence over voting come election time in those communities. After the DUP lost East belfast to Alliance a few years ago the paramilitaries were mobilised to stoke up trouble during the flag protests and pin the blame on Alliance which in no small part contributed to the DUP regaining that seat at the next election.

Does this still happen on both sides of the community?

 

[esmufc07]

What is the difference between this deal and May’s?

 

[muller]

Sky saying DUP are not on board.

 

[Adisa]

The Tories would prefer an election to a second referendum. If that’s on the table, I think they’ll lose the vote, and extend article 50 to fight Boris’ ‘people vs. parliament’ election.

Corbyn will take it.

 

[muller]

What is the difference between this deal and May’s?

He's louder, more capitals, and his has more spelling mistakes.

 

[Rooney24]

Sky saying DUP are not on board.

Boris going to roll the dice without them then?

 

[Maticmaker]

It won’t pass though will it?

Looks unlikely, but is it just me or has the Government just recently, stopped talking about the Benn Act as the 'Surrender Act ? Something definitely 'fishy' about that!

 

[Raulduke]

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[muller]

Boris going to roll the dice without them then?

I think he's planning a new bus advert as we speak.

 

[Sassy Colin]

May had a deal too, but it didn't get though Parliament.

Boris absolves himself of blame because he has got a deal. The EU has done everything they can to get a deal. The UK Parliament doesn't want the deal.

 

[stepic]

feck the DUP. just put the deal on the table alongside a remain option and end this thing. if Labour is on board then it will pass.

 

[Simbo]

Why the feck are people still talking about the DUP as if thats all they need to get a majority.

 

[Rooney24]

May had a deal too, but it didn't get though Parliament.

Boris absolves himself of blame because he has got a deal. The EU has done everything they can to get a deal. The UK Parliament doesn't want the deal.

Yep, and then they go out with no deal. Which I suspect has been his plan and preferred option all along. This is all just for show.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

Why the feck are people still talking about the DUP as if thats all they need to get a majority.

Because DUP support would unlock support from (most of the) ERG, and then there's probably enough leave voting Labour MPs to offset any Tory/ex-Tory hold outs.

 

[robinamicrowave]

Needs to get through parliament first, which it won't, and then we'll apply for an extension on the 19th. And we'll go through this all over again.

 

[Honest John]

What is the difference between this deal and May’s?

Not sure but noises off say it is a looser arrangement with the EU.
The UK comes out of the CU and SM. NI maintains some alignment and has a vote on whether that arrangement continues going forward.
The stated end goal is a FTA.
With May's deal we were tied to the backstop arrangement for as long as a future deal took to negotiate (and one with an Irish solution in it).
The thinking from the hardliners was that it was not an arrangement that would cause the EU to overly stretch themselves to bring to a conclusion.

 

[Simbo]

Needs to get through parliament first, which it won't, and then we'll apply for an extension on the 19th. And we'll go through this all over again.

We'll have an election then though, which will at least give us a chance of escaping this mess.

 

[Raulduke]

Does this still happen on both sides of the community?

I hesitate to say that it doesn't happen on the nationalist side but can't think of an equivalent example. That being said I'm sure Sinn Fein still consult prominent former IRA members too in relation to particular issues, if for example, in extremely unlikely event that Sinn Fein wanted to end their abstentionism they would no doubt have to get the green light from those same members of the republican community.

 

[Kasper]

When will the parliament vote on it?

 

[muller]

Literally the only way out of this is to hold a confirmatory vote.

1. Get the best possible deal.
2. Put the options the take the deal or remain on the table.

Ta da. It's all pathetic. We shouldn't be in this mess, but we are. Hopefully enough people have woken up in the last 3 years, but i worry people have dug their heels in, even now they know their pizza they ordered has maggots in.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

When will the parliament vote on it?

Parliament is sitting on Saturday... so something should happen then.

 

[sammsky1]

Sky saying DUP are not on board.

Which means many ERG members will not back BJ’s deal.

 

[esmufc07]

How important even are the DUP votes? I feel if (big if) this deal does what it says then many Labour MPs will vote for it, and perhaps a fair few of the Tory Rebels.

 

[Maticmaker]

Yep, and then they go out with no deal. Which I suspect has been his plan and preferred option all along. This is all just for show.

Yes, I am beginning to suspect it is.

Boris gave the EU just enough encouragement to bite and for them to keep channels open by talking to them about possible concessions on NI, even getting them to be seen to open up the WDA to 'further negotiation. Boris is still taking the talks right up to and beyond the EU leaders summit, with talk of an 'agreement in principle', but with 'more hard yards to follow' etc. however knowing all the time that the DUP would be likely to scupper things at the last minute.

The question now is, how is he going to get around the Benn Act, to allow the clock to finally run down?

 

[MikeUpNorth]

What are the chances of the EU now turning down any extension to try to force parliament to pass the deal under the threat of no-deal?

It would make the Benn Act irrelevant if there is no extension on offer.

 

[Raulduke]

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[sammsky1]

Fully agreed. The entire country is being held to ransom over a footnote. Most in Britain forget NI is there at all, let alone an obscure political party that doesn't even hold a majority in it's own land.

It's ridiculous that they are being allowed to derail the whole thing.

Not really. It’s the fault of May and the Tory party in general for not having a workable majority and recently becoming a minority Government.

DUP influence right now is how democracy works: it should represent all the current touch points of the people it represents. The Irish issue is a key part of any BrExit.

I’d say our parliament system is working very well: BrExit was never the ‘will of the people’. The result was a slender win of 51.8 vs 48.2 in a 67% turnout. The BrExit negotiations in parliament represents that.

 

[esmufc07]

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@owlo please read this and then surmise for the caf. Thanks.

 

[Honest John]

Yes, I am beginning to suspect it is.

Boris gave the EU just enough encouragement to bite and for them to keep channels open by talking to them about possible concessions on NI, even getting them to be seen to open up the WDA to 'further negotiation. Boris is still taking the talks right up to and beyond the EU leaders summit, with talk of an 'agreement in principle', but with 'more hard yards to follow' etc. however knowing all the time that the DUP would be likely to scupper things at the last minute.

The question now is, how is he going to get around the Benn Act, to allow the clock to finally run down?

Orban?

 

[Raulduke]

Barnier confirming that the DUP won't have a veto, simply majority vote in Stormont to renew every 4 years.

 

[sammsky1]

Yep, and then they go out with no deal. Which I suspect has been his plan and preferred option all along. This is all just for show.

how does he get around the Benn act?

 

[Maticmaker]

What are the chances of the EU now turning down any extension to try to force parliament to pass the deal under the threat of no-deal?

It would make the Benn Act irrelevant if there is no extension on offer.

Presumably the EU cannot grant an extension until and unless asked to do so. Whilst the Benn Act requires this, there is still some nagging doubts about how Boris may try to get around this somehow. Also the EU Leaders seemed to have ignored the Barnier warning to stop all talks yesterday morning, this apparent rejection of their own negotiators recommendation might signal some differences, or at least some possible misunderstanding amongst the ranks of EU leaders?

Timing is everything just now, you have to wonder if Boris /Cummings have after all judged it correctly, and/or its going to be one big feck up!

 

[Rooney24]

NI remains aligned to good

how does he get around the Benn act?

Either he is going to have to swallow that, or as is being rumoured the EU are done negotiating for sure now and wont agree to an Extension.

Meaning for Parliament it is this or no deal. And who knows how that will Play out on Saturday.

 

[Maciej]

So, does it mean you're leaving now or there's a chance that it will be blocked by the Parliament or postponed?

 

[Simbo]

The deal:
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sit...g_protocol_on_ireland_and_nothern_ireland.pdf

 

[Rooney24]

So, does it mean you're leaving now or there's a chance that it will be blocked by the Parliament or postponed?

This.