This is about where my thinking is at the moment.
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WHat times the vote tomorrow? Hope it doesnt clash with the Rugby 
Reckon it passes as well. Think parliament just wants to get anything through.
Propaganda is effective as we’ve seen over the past 200 years. Propaganda is also expensive and it’s the capitalists on the right that have the money and know the value in keeping the turkeys voting for Christmas.
I think you'll be ok - they are looking at 3:30-ish for the vote.WHat times the vote tomorrow? Hope it doesnt clash with the Rugby
Word for word how I see it panning out too.
What percentage do you think labour gets in an election where they’ve either blocked brexit or caused no deal?
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I don't even think they know themselves yet to be honest. Most of them are remainers playing leave for show for their constituents but they've said all along it depends on rights and standards as a get out so if they're true to their word it should only be 5 or 6.
I think some will buckle and try and keep their seats so maybe 10. You could argue threatening the whip might keep a few votes in side but it would be a bit hypocritical and not a good look to kick out those voting on behalf of their constituents.
Neither are the direction Labour are going in. A second referendum is not blocking Brexit only the people could do that themselves.
I don't see many arguments over which will of the people is more valid.
haven’t labour already voted against a second referendum? Or have they changed course
The thing is even if they were to secure a confirmatory Referendum on this deal I think the public would pass it and probably by a decent margin. Its fairly clear the public are fed up now and just want this over without giving proper thought to the damage it might cause. So it would be a case of "lets just get this done and move on".
I dunno - I think one thing that the remain side would make very very clear throughout is that accepting the Boris' Deal (or mays deal or corbyns unicorn deal... even leaving on WTO terms) is simply the start of the real trade discussions and these could conceivably last 5 years even more - choosing to remain is actually the only way to move on... having spoken to a few people involved in various remain campaigns I know this is something they are all keen to get over if there was another vote
Rumours that any labour MP who votes for it will now be blocked by the NEC from standing as a candidate - this might make a few abstain rather than vote against - though De Piero is standing down anyway so I doubt she will care
MY gut feel is that if he can get the DUP on side he will loose by about 10 votes (though there is enough uncertainty that if all the wavering votes went his way he could just win but in balance of probability O think 10 or so short)
If he does not get the DUP onside and it looks like he will loose anyway i think you will see some of the ERG break ranks and very few opposition vote with it - probably a defeat similar to MV3 for theresa May
A confirmatory referendum amendment has the best chance of getting through i think If conservative and Labour dont whip against it and simply allow a free vote (not sure that will happen)
The court in Edinburgh might well declare the deal illegal today anyway, in which case there would be no vote.
The law in question would need to be amended in any case, so likely that the judgement might just require an appendix to the deal which sets out the resulting amendments to the Taxation (Cross-Border Trade) Act?
Hard to know, but potential for a twist today.
The law in question would need to be amended in any case, so likely that the judgement might just require an appendix to the deal which sets out the resulting amendments to the Taxation (Cross-Border Trade) Act?
Hard to know, but potential for a twist today.
Yeah and I agree. But maybe I am being disrespectful to Joe Public here but if a confirmatory Referendum ever arose, it is a lot easier to repeatedly beat the drum and just say "lets get this done finally" than it is to argue and explain all the complexities and intricacies of why it may be a bad deal and have the average Person on the street understnad and take that on board.
For the next GE the threat of deselection for Labour MP's has been made to a number of them, it is the 'sword' hanging over their heads and many of whom are in Leave voting constituencies. This factor may well lie heavy in their decision making and nobody knows for sure which way they will vote...perhaps not even themselves, until the last minute!
For such Labour MP's abstention may be the honourable way out, hence the combination of those abstaining with those actually voting for the deal will probably be the crucial factor in determining the outcome, assuming everybody else votes as expected.
For such Labour MP's abstention may be the honourable way out, hence the combination of those abstaining with those actually voting for the deal will probably be the crucial factor in determining the outcome, assuming everybody else votes as expected.
interestingly if you game that through there are likley to be a number of amendments...
the bill as it stands
the bill with a referendum and others
you may well get 5-10 labour MPs voting for one amendment and perhaps more voting for a different one... eg I could see lots of labour MPS voting for a referendum (but the governmnet not and the amendment being defeated)... but if labout has whipped against that motion as well then in theory all the mps would be booted out - who knows 100? - surely labour will have to either take no action against anybody or allow a free vote on the referendum amendment
no doubt there will also be a labour official amendment that people will be whipped to vote for as well (which some may not)
Wonder if they will see it like boris did as a chance to purge the party before a GE?
Well the official line is still GE then Ref but they've moved slightly towards a second ref first it seems.
It's the people's vote side that have stood down the second ref as they know the Tory rebels won't back it so it's not wise to have it defeated. That doesn't mean the Lib dems won't table it anyway like they tried last time and it doesn't mean Labour won't put it forward in a few days.
Let's not forget that the act requires a second reading. It could pass tomorrow only for amendments to be attached at the next reading.
The UK would have left and would have to reapply.
To be fair your missing out the bit where they say in a 3 month period they will reegotiate the withdrawal agreement to give the UK access to all the EU trade deals, the ability to negotiate our own trade deals and a say over future EU deals whislt the EU has no say over ours... you know the unicorn stuff
I think if they whip against a referendum option tomorrow they will sink 5-10 points behind the libs - but I think corbyn is stupid enough to do it anyway (though i hope not and at least I hope he gives a free vote on that amendment)
thats my understanding and in theory if we did reapply loose any vetos and have to take the Euro (if becoming a full EU member - we could of course also apply to join the EEA instead of the EU)
Its quite amazing that 2 staunch Unionist parties has dismantled the Union, Republicans must be laughing so hard.
Probably, whether they would be accepted in the EEA is doubtful and why leave the EU to join the EEA outside the EU.
Almost as daft as people believing Corbyn's proposal is realistic.
Yes. And in the case of the DUP its strange that they cant see that it is not this deal in itself that threatens the Union, but the very idea of Brexit at all. Im surprised they went for it.
Well they'll get what they get or won't get case may (probably be). They've never really been pushed as red lines as much as aims and I'm perhaps naive enough to believe it's all just targeted lines for PR sake.
It's not like Labour are going to threaten no deal unless the EU give in. It's whatever will be agreeable with them such as reg alignment.
Thick as shite blinded by concessions and power, how they didn’t see how this was going to go is inexcusable. They did absolutely everything wrong. It’s all on their head and I will be letting them know in no simple terms. If they hadn’t of propped up the Tories there is a very strong possibility their could have been a second referendum, absolute clowns.
did they go for it primarily because nationalists were against it?
just trying to get my head around that decision as it seems if you want to preserve the union then preserving the current legal frameworks, customs unions and regulations was the most logical way to do so... even without taking into account the risks to the good friday agreement inherent in re-introducing a hard border
That and concessions, they didn't even represent the majority of NI voters.
I just bought all my PC parts so this deal better pass now and the Sterling better go up or else I'll feck you up, Britain.
Ooh lah Dee dah Mr "I bought my own police constable".
His name is Tom and he makes me feel special!
If the deal passes Sterling shouldn't collapse (at least while the transition is in place)
I know, Paul, that's what I said!
But going up?
Proper British name, that. Like Boris or Smirnoff.
Honestly I would wager decent Money on it that that is not too far off the mark although they would never admit to it. In simplistic terms they probably went for it because in their ideal scenario they saw a UK (including NI) fully out of the EU, and a Republic of Ireland left behind in it. And in their minds that made the possibility of a UI more difficult than ever. They never foreseen any of the real issues or problems at all.
It makes me laugh when I see them on the News last night saying that this deal destroys the GFA, an Agreement that they campaigned against and never signed up to.
It really is laughable, as most people probably know I am a Unionist but how anyone can vote for, or even like these clowns is beyond me. Problem is there are NO other Unionist candidates, UUP are weak, TUV are week and even more bigoted than the DUP. I may not like Sinn Fein but as a political party they are head and shoulders above anything the Unionist side can offer. Its even funnier still that its the DUP themselves that has probably made the biggest step towards a boarder poll in the last 20 years.
Unless van Aanholt clips him in the penalty box...