I certainly leaves the door open for a no deal on jan 1st 2021.
I don't think there's any "probably" about it. The guy who will be leading the negotiations for the EU said it would take him approx. 8 months just to get his team together and that several years of negotiations would then follow. Getting it done within two is likely literally impossible.
Remaining was sensible and half the population didn't listen, taking May's deal was more sensible than letting Boris Johnson get hold of power.
Will she vote for his deal... She did say no pm could ever accept a customs boarder between ni and uk
I like her a lot, would vote for her, might even knock on doors for her. But it feels abit early for her?
Depends whether you're a brexiter or not.
haha.. Even Boris said the exact same thing. They have no shame. I think she will vote for it.
The only thing that Jeremy has up his sleeve is his arm.
I have wondered the same thing about your second point.
If it’s a tie the speaker gets the deciding vote. I think I’m right in saying convention dictates he would vote against the government as the motion/bill hasn’t received a majority and so shouldn’t be passed.
It’s an absolute joke how people like him get so much air time.
I can’t imagine Johnson actually wants a no deal due to the calamity it will bring but he wants to be seen for fighting for Brexit.
The usual walking dead cheering him on.
Jeremy will most likely 'retire' after the coming election, so not long now, but his replacement will be another momentum type, chosen by the new members.
Yes i think basically it's vote for the status quo... So if somebody said change and existing law (for example brexit date) and it was a tie he is compelled to keep it the same...
The first question has already been answered by esmufc07 and sun_tzu, speaker gets the casting vote and by convention always opposes the motion as it hasn't commanded a majority.
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Not true. Mine took 4.5 years
I genuinely don't follow that logic
I wouldn't ever take Payne as a source tbh. He's the definition of Tory boy.
Slightly different point but read the thread and you will get where I am coming from.Tweet
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Either that or he wouldn't mind doing it. We need a vomit emoji."David Cameron calls Boris a greased piglet"
Wait...is that the piggy cameron fecked
He won't withdraw it; electoral optics too appealing. But Letwin passing will change everything indeed. Can't see it passing in that case.
I haven't seen mentioned anywhere that the borders will be hard after the transition period with or without a FTA, other than of course on the island of Ireland so it's not a no deal because the GFA in Ireland and the integrity of the EU single market is agreed which were the real concerns of the EU.
The latter part is the crucial bit. I can see court cases in the next 6 months if the deal gets through. The whole "new" deal is weird, worse than the May agreement for everybody but with the potential of going through because its a populist in charge.
Courts won't touch it. Parliament can do what they want. It's their responsibility to scrutinise legislation properly. And we'll have left the EU anyway, so nothing there.
Because no one expects for the irish arrangements to go away any time soon really. They're in for the foreseeable.
But it's not going to be the FTA that is the biggest problem for the UK, it's going to be being outside the Customs Union, the FTA will never be ready by Jan 2021 if it's by Jan 2025 they'll be doing well. The hard border's going to be the killer.
Not between NI and Ireland though as that will keep the current arrangements for a long time, that's what this deal is about. The UK (outside of NI) isn't expecting any FTA unfortunately for us.
The transition period up to the end of 2020 is the current status quo, free movement and single market membership, the dual customs union for NI kicks in then if no FTA is signed and no transition extention is agreed. It would then be 6 years minimum (4 years until a vote then 2 years cooling off period) before a hard border in NI, so the earliest a hard border could happen in NI is Jan 1st 2027.
Yes NI/Ire is safe with the deal at least for 6 years minimum and probably for the foreseeable future. There will surely be a FTA at some point between the EU & the UK. Under the May deal the whole of the UK would be safeguarded until the magic solution of the border was found but Brexiters are happy the rest of the UK are no longer in the previous backstop.
Yes agreed totally, I'm talking about the other borders , eg Dover/Calais.
It's just amazing to think that the lives of 60+million folks will be invariably be changed forever by the vote of just four people.
The Letwin amendment, which has cross-party support, increasing its chances of being selected, is:
