Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

[MikeUpNorth]

Your point?

What do you mean?

 

[UnrelatedPsuedo]

What do you mean?

You posted a link. Why? What was your take?

 

[MikeUpNorth]

You posted a link. Why? What was your take?

I guess it's interesting that Unilever have decided to proceed with the move to become solely a UK company, and want to force it through ahead of the end of the transition period, while the outcome of the Brexit talks are uncertain. The Netherlands has been strongly opposed to the move, but Unilever's lawyers have decided that the Dutch 'exit tax' threat is illegal under EU law.

More broadly, the FT have been doing some good coverage in the last few weeks on how businesses in both the EU and the UK are planning and adapting to the end of the transition period. I've shared a few links.

 

[Buster15]

A worthy (and chilling) explanation of what Brexit will do to the UK economy after December.

All perfectly understandable, assuming you are prepared to listen with an open mind.

So. For those who voted to leave, please remind us why leaving the EU is such a wonderful idea...

 

[Paul the Wolf]

All perfectly understandable, assuming you are prepared to listen with an open mind.

So. For those who voted to leave, please remind us why leaving the EU is such a wonderful idea...

Brexiters won't listen to him, he actually sounds like he knows what he's talking about.
Not long to go now, if the UK starts running out of food, the Brexiters will have a lot of humble pie to eat. Or proof is in the pudding.

I have no sympathy for anyone who voted Brexit but do feel really very sympathetic towards you and your fellow remainers who are being dragged into this nightmare by a bunch of lunatics.

 

[FireballXL5]

Another story for the BBC to ignore...

Boris Johnson faces Brexit bill defeat at pivotal moment

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/brex...at-pivotal-moment/ar-BB1ashKZ?ocid=BingHPCTop

 

[Penna]

They can get away with it simply because there are sufficient haltwits who will swallow it hook line and bullsh1t.

And they'e been unexpectedly assisted by the pandemic, which has made most people completely lose interest in Brexit.

 

[Fluctuation0161]

And they'e been unexpectedly assisted by the pandemic, which has made most people completely lose interest in Brexit.

True, to a degree.

But with the parliamentary majority these nut jobs have, it was only going to go one way.

 

[Buster15]

Brexiters won't listen to him, he actually sounds like he knows what he's talking about.
Not long to go now, if the UK starts running out of food, the Brexiters will have a lot of humble pie to eat. Or proof is in the pudding.

I have no sympathy for anyone who voted Brexit but do feel really very sympathetic towards you and your fellow remainers who are being dragged into this nightmare by a bunch of lunatics.

I too have no sympathy with those who voted to leave the EU. But I do acknowledge the fact that the whole country was lied to. And lots of people were taken in by those lies.
Nevertheless, the onus was on everyone who cast their vote to at least try to understand the issues.

Like many countries, we are focusing on the pandemic and I see that France is experiencing even higher numbers than here.
But I keep trying to remind people that a no deal outcome is going to damage our fragile economy far more than the pandemic. And that unlike the pandemic, Brexit is completely self inflicted.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

I too have no sympathy with those who voted to leave the EU. But I do acknowledge the fact that the whole country was lied to. And lots of people were taken in by those lies.
Nevertheless, the onus was on everyone who cast their vote to at least try to understand the issues.

Like many countries, we are focusing on the pandemic and I see that France is experiencing even higher numbers than here.
But I keep trying to remind people that a no deal outcome is going to damage our fragile economy far more than the pandemic. And that unlike the pandemic, Brexit is completely self inflicted.

For sure the country was lied too but I get the impression that even now, all this time later, the same people still believe the lies and only when reality strikes will they understand, they probably won't admit to their gullibility though. As I've said right from the beginning, ignorance is no excuse, the same as it is no excuse in law.

The pandemic is seriously affecting countries, we're probably going into a four week lockdown this evening and yes Brexit will be far more serious and have a far longer lasting effect on the UK economy.
The people who have conned the UK into this must be held to account.

Hopefully the USA can get rid of Trump very soon. The UK can't get rid of this insanity for a very long time.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Not very important in the grand scheme of things but this really sums up the extent of the ignorance and wishful thinking that seems to be pervasive in the Uk government when it comes to Brexit.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Not very important in the grand scheme of things but this really sums up the extent of the ignorance and wishful thinking that seems to be pervasive in the Uk government when it comes to Brexit.

It exposes the lies the government is trying to con the electorate with. What must be really scary is that the clueless and moronic Liz Truss is in charge.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

Counties should be queuing up to do trade deals with the UK. Cos there's a good chance the UK government won't have a clue what they're signing.

 

[Buster15]

Counties should be queuing up to do trade deals with the UK. Cos there's a good chance the UK government won't have a clue what they're signing.

The problem is that this level of incompetence is not unusual.
It is now the norm.

 

[Cheimoon]

I guess it's interesting that Unilever have decided to proceed with the move to become solely a UK company, and want to force it through ahead of the end of the transition period, while the outcome of the Brexit talks are uncertain. The Netherlands has been strongly opposed to the move, but Unilever's lawyers have decided that the Dutch 'exit tax' threat is illegal under EU law.

More broadly, the FT have been doing some good coverage in the last few weeks on how businesses in both the EU and the UK are planning and adapting to the end of the transition period. I've shared a few links.

Not sure what conclusions can be drawn from Unilever's actions though. They are fairly unique in having two main offices in two different countries, and their plans to reduce it to one HQ in one country predate Brexit.

 

[4bars]

The problem is that this level of incompetence is not unusual.
It is now the norm.

And in a lots of governments in the world, not exclusive in the UK, so if UK would not know what they are signing, lots of other "negotiators" neither

 

[africanspur]

Not very important in the grand scheme of things but this really sums up the extent of the ignorance and wishful thinking that seems to be pervasive in the Uk government when it comes to Brexit.

Stuff like this is head bangingly frustrating.

I'm not really sure either if they genuinely believe this stuff they're writing/ saying or whether they're just putting on a facade and know they're blatantly lying.

Frankly, I'm not sure which is more depressing or worrying either.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

More smoke and mirrors from the brilliant Liz Truss - just don't look too closely at the details.

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

If you don't look closely at the details then :

"It also guarantees continued market access for UK exporters, who together sold £815m in goods and services to Kenya last year. "

Wow!

 

[TheGame]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[FireballXL5]

Hopefully the beginning of the end of Brexit.

 

[F-Red]

Tweet

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Pretty reputable source as well, looks like some sense might prevail on access to the single market. Customs union issues is going to be absolute bedlam come the New Year if it's not addressed quickly.

 

[DavidDeSchmikes]

Wonder how much a Biden presidency will affect this?

 

[horsechoker]

Wonder how much a Biden presidency will affect this?

Mainly the good Friday agreement, apparently Boris might consider a deal if Biden wins.

 

[TheGame]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[calodo2003]

More smoke and mirrors from the brilliant Liz Truss - just don't look too closely at the details.

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

If you don't look closely at the details then :

"It also guarantees continued market access for UK exporters, who together sold £815m in goods and services to Kenya last year. "

Wow!

What is this, three now?

 

[calodo2003]

Tweet

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How is this better for y’all than it was before?

If it’s not a marked improvement on how it was, does this all come down to racism in the end?

 

[Wibble]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

That is next level batshit crazy.

 

[tombombadil]

How is this better for y’all than it was before?

If it’s not a marked improvement on how it was, does this all come down to racism in the end?

When has it been anything other than sticking it to "the others"?

It's a symptom that is not unique to the UK. It's happening around the world. Nationalism, nativism, racism is on the rise. Demagogues everywhere are gaining access to powerful manipulation tools in social media and traditional news to manipulate entire countries to the right and gain power.

 

[calodo2003]

When has it been anything other than sticking it to "the others"?

It's a symptom that is not unique to the UK. It's happening around the world. Nationalism, nativism, racism is on the rise. Demagogues everywhere are gaining access to powerful manipulation tools in social media and traditional news to manipulate entire countries to the right and gain power.

I’ve always felt that it was mostly racism, but there could have been a financial incentive too. I’m also in America & haven’t followed the machinations too closely until recently.

Does this apparent agreement in its current framework make the economic condition of dealing with the EU better than it was while the UK was in the EU? If not, how so?

 

[tombombadil]

I’ve always felt that it was mostly racism, but there could have been a financial incentive too. I’m also in America & haven’t followed the machinations too closely until recently.

Does this apparent agreement in its current framework make the economic condition of dealing with the EU better than it was while the UK was in the EU? If not, how so?

I'm not an expert. But one way to summarize it would be:-

Before, UK was in the privileged position of have having a seat on the EU voting table without having to conform to the full set of EU requirements. Just some.
Now, UK will be in the "privileged" position of having no seat on the EU voting table and having to conform to those same set of EU requirements as before any way if they want to maintain trade with the EU.

Of course, in reality, it gets more complicated from there. There are many other problems, like fisheries, hard/soft borders, etc etc. In a sense, Brexit never existed. The people voted for something that never existed. The should have been forced to vote for Brexit with hard borders and non shared fisheries and xxx, Brexit with soft borders and non shared fisheries and xxx, etc. In which case, UK would have remained in the EU. It's farcical.

And this is costing lots of money on both sides. All for what? To stick it to "The Others", of course. I suspect there is more going on behind this, but that is my assumption and I am trying to discipline myself from passing assumption off as fact.

 

[Penna]

When has it been anything other than sticking it to "the others"?

It's a symptom that is not unique to the UK. It's happening around the world. Nationalism, nativism, racism is on the rise. Demagogues everywhere are gaining access to powerful manipulation tools in social media and traditional news to manipulate entire countries to the right and gain power.

I agree with you. It's about "how will this benefit me and my cronies", not "how will this benefit the people I'm suppose to serve as a public servant."

 

[Paul the Wolf]

What is this, three now?

They have a few more but they are so small and in the grander scheme of things pretty insignificant and for the most part those they do have actually benefit the partner country more than the UK.

What the UK is doing and will do for many years to come will be to try to replicate the deals they already had by being a member of the EU.
They already had a similar deal like this one by being a member of the EU but that was with the whole East African region.

The intention of Brexit was to eliminate the danger to the Tory Party losing elections and knowing that what appealed to a large proportion of the British electorate was to appeal to them with xenophobia, national pride, not being told what to do by other countries, not giving money to the EU, not having laws made by the EU and so on and knowing at least one of those things would appeal then using social media and the majority right-wing press in the UK. They never went into details though.

Problem was once the lies started they had to keep lying to cover the previous lie and they didn't really expect that Brexit would win; just a narrow defeat would have been the perfect result.
There was no plan if Brexit won. There still is no plan which leads us to where we are now.

People are now desperate for any type of deal with the EU or hoping that the USA will come up with a favourable trade deal.
Even if that happened it will still be a disaster.
Trade deals will help/soften the blow a little but not save the UK from the problem of leaving the Customs union and the divergence of standards, rules and other European organisations and thousands of other problems that will become apparent in the not too distant future.

So in the short term we'll get the occasional tiny deal as the UK goes through the list of the deals they tore up by leaving the EU which they now try to replicate

This story has many years to roll. People who voted Brexit may gradually as the years go by realise they made a monumental error, but maybe not.

 

[calodo2003]

They have a few more but they are so small and in the grander scheme of things pretty insignificant and for the most part those they do have actually benefit the partner country more than the UK.

What the UK is doing and will do for many years to come will be to try to replicate the deals they already had by being a member of the EU.
They already had a similar deal like this one by being a member of the EU but that was with the whole East African region.

The intention of Brexit was to eliminate the danger to the Tory Party losing elections and knowing that what appealed to a large proportion of the British electorate was to appeal to them with xenophobia, national pride, not being told what to do by other countries, not giving money to the EU, not having laws made by the EU and so on and knowing at least one of those things would appeal then using social media and the majority right-wing press in the UK. They never went into details though.

Problem was once the lies started they had to keep lying to cover the previous lie and they didn't really expect that Brexit would win; just a narrow defeat would have been the perfect result.
There was no plan if Brexit won. There still is no plan which leads us to where we are now.

People are now desperate for any type of deal with the EU or hoping that the USA will come up with a favourable trade deal.
Even if that happened it will still be a disaster.
Trade deals will help/soften the blow a little but not save the UK from the problem of leaving the Customs union and the divergence of standards, rules and other organistation and thousands of other problems that will become apparent in the not too distant future.

So in the short term we'll get the occasional tiny deal as the UK goes through the list of the deals they tore up by leaving the EU which they now try to replicate

This story has many years to roll. People who voted Brexit may gradually as the years go by realise they made a monumental error, but maybe not.

How much different would the current potential framework in the economic agreement that might be forthcoming be vs. how the UK & the EU existed immediately before the vote? Is it substantially worse for the UK, marginally worse, better at all?

 

[Paul the Wolf]

How much different would the current potential framework in the economic agreement that might be forthcoming be vs. how the UK & the EU existed immediately before the vote? Is it substantially worse for the UK, marginally worse, better at all?

Both the UK and the EU will be losers, in my own conservative estimate the UK about ten times more than the EU overall , some Eu countries will not be affected at all while some of the closer ones will be more affected like, Ireland (the most) ,France, Germany, Netherlands. However, the barriers and obstacles put up by the UK leaving the EU affect the UK's relationship with 27 other countries plus all the countries the EU have relationships with.
Whereas each EU country's relationship is only affected with their relationship with one country, the UK.

There are so many problems but the immediate significant problem will be the different customs arrangements. For example, a company in the UK sell something to a company in Denmark. They may put it on a truck, deliver it to Denmark with an invoice and a packing list.

From 1st January the documentation required will be significantly higher, the bureaucracy will increase, the goods may be subject to tariffs, phytosanitary inspection, forms to confirm the goods comply to EU standards, the goods themselves would have to be certified by the EU, the tariffs and taxes will have to be registered and paid, the truck may be delayed significantly by customs inspections.
Costs will increase, bureaucracy will increase, there will be inevitable delays.

Remember I am only touching very lightly in the significance of what will change.
There is just so much.

Brexit may have worked if the UK was a tiny self-sufficient island with no contact with the outside world.
Personally I cannot see any benefit whatsoever, only downsides and those who voted Brexit cannot seem to show a benefit either beyond ridiculous clichés they've been brainwashed into repeating parrot fashion by the right-wing media.

 

[calodo2003]

Both the UK and the EU will be losers, in my own conservative estimate the UK about ten times more than the EU overall , some Eu countries will not be affected at all while some of the closer ones will be more affected like, France, Germany, Netherlands. However, the barriers and obstacles put up by the UK leaving the EU affect the UK's relationship with 27 other countries plus all the countries the EU have relationships with.
Whereas each EU country's relationship is only affected with their relationship with one country, the UK.

There are so many problems but the immediate significant problem will be the different customs arrangements. For example, a company in the UK sell something to a company in Denmark. They may put it on a truck, deliver it to Denmark with an invoice and a packing list.

From 1st January the documentation required will be significantly higher, the bureaucracy will increase, the goods may be subject to tariffs, phytosanitary inspection, forms to confirm the goods comply to EU standards, the goods themselves would have to be certified by the EU, the tariffs and taxes will have to be registered and paid, the truck may be delayed significantly by customs inspections.
Costs will increase, bureaucracy will increase, there will be inevitable delays.

Remember I am only touching very lightly in the significance of what will change.
There is just so much.

Brexit may have worked if the UK was a tiny self-sufficient island with no contact with the outside world.
Personally I cannot see any benefit whatsoever, only downsides and those who voted Brexit cannot seem to show a benefit either beyond ridiculous clichés they've been brainwashed into repeating parrot fashion by the right-wing media.

Shocking how racism is going to trump common sense, the scenario you have laid out seems to have been a very possible one from the beginning of this morass.

 

[Don't Kill Bill]

I’ve always felt that it was mostly racism, but there could have been a financial incentive too. I’m also in America & haven’t followed the machinations too closely until recently.

Does this apparent agreement in its current framework make the economic condition of dealing with the EU better than it was while the UK was in the EU? If not, how so?

We don't know what the deal is or even if there really is one yet. It won't stop people making a case as to how bad it is for the UK though and I accept they might very well be correct in the end.

It is certainly the case that the UK as a member paid more for membership than almost anyone else. Ran a net trade deficit larger within it than any other member. To be part of an origination which bears little resemblance to the one it joined and which continues to increase it demands while becoming less popular with most of the UK population and indeed most other member countries populations.

Its easier to think ill of people who don't like it than it is to ask what is it good/poor at.

If it is trade then it doesn't seem to be doing very much for the UK and has a falling share of world trade markets.

If it is international influence/ power, well look at the mess around Cyprus and Turkey the response to the Belarus crisis.

If it is security/defence, it seems reluctant to spend what would be needed to do so without NATO.

Most of its money historically has been spent on subsidizing farming and yet its farms seem less efficient than in the US for example.

It makes it easier to travel around Europe which is great but not really environmentally sustainable and you have to have the money to exercise that freedom.

It also demands a sacrifice in sovereignty the US would never grant to a multi national body.


None of which means the UK will be immediately better for leaving as that seems like a pipe dream.

 

[calodo2003]

We don't know what the deal is or even if there really is one yet. It won't stop people making a case as to how bad it is for the UK though and I accept they might very well be correct in the end.

It is certainly the case that the UK as a member paid more for membership than almost anyone else. Ran a net trade deficit larger within it than any other member. To be part of an origination which bears little resemblance to the one it joined and which continues to increase it demands while becoming less popular with most of the UK population and indeed most other member countries populations.

Its easier to think ill of people who don't like it than it is to ask what is it good/poor at.

If it is trade then it doesn't seem to be doing very much for the UK and has a falling share of world trade markets.

If it is international influence/ power, well look at the mess around Cyprus and Turkey the response to the Belarus crisis.

If it is security/defence, it seems reluctant to spend what would be needed to do so without NATO.

Most of its money historically has been spent on subsidizing farming and yet its farms seem less efficient than in the US for example.

It makes it easier to travel around Europe which is great but not really environmentally sustainable and you have to have the money to exercise that freedom.

It also demands a sacrifice in sovereignty the US would never grant to a multi national body.


None of which means the UK will be immediately better for leaving as that seems like a pipe dream.

Thanks for this perspective as well.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Shocking how racism is going to trump common sense, the scenario you have laid out seems to have been a very possible one from the beginning of this morass.

It was very clear what would happen but most people are not concerned with details and tend to hear or read what they want to hear or read.
People were warned but they would not listen.

Even now they won't listen. It is only when reality hits them next year will they realise the problems, but they won't admit they made a mistake. Very sad really but it's going to get very messy.

 

[calodo2003]

It was very clear what would happen but most people are not concerned with details and tend to hear or read what they want to hear or read.
People were warned but they would not listen.

Even now they won't listen. It is only when reality hits them next year will they realise the problems, but they won't admit they made a mistake. Very sad really but it's going to get very messy.

There’s a very small part of me that is fascinated by how bad it could actually get. The larger part me feels total pity for y’all.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

There’s a very small part of me that is fascinated by how bad it could actually get. The larger part me feels total pity for y’all.

As I'm usually a very optimistic person and I'm very pessimistic about this, it could get very bad.
Fortunately I moved from the UK to France over 13 years ago.