Pretty low that, even in the current climate.
Brexited | the worst threads live the longest
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I think there are too many possible outcomes for it to be correctly "priced in"; but not an expert either!
Hard brexit has not.
I think you are going to be for a nasty shock.
Not really, I'm prepared for it. I just don't think it's anywhere near as certain as people make it out. For the aforementioned reasons.
If it's a real hard Brexit, it's not factored in.
Under normal circumstances if interest rates go up then currency will improve, for the right reasons ie when the economy is doing well but of the interest rates are compensating for an extremely weak currency and economy, it's not good.
It's weird but one almost gets the impression that the traders are thinking, "surely the UK government aren't this dumb, they're not really going to crash out" but if they do and when it looks certain they will I can only see the pound sliding no matter the increase in interest rates.
I heard that in these circles, they literally think that common sense will eventually prevail. That's why a briefing from the EU will probably change everything.
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Not an expert either but I do watch the markets as I manage the FX hedging at work.
a) A full on no-deal brexit isn't quite in the price yet, I think there is still room for it to reach 1.25 against the dollar at least, could easily go further if shit really does hit the fan with hard borders, lorries backed up from Dover to Birmingham and every major manufacturer talking about their plans to gtfo. I get the feeling there is still a dis-belief in the markets that the UK will really let a hard brexit happen.
b) Carney's comments are based on a number of assumptions, one of which being the economy still ticking along somewhat. I'm pretty sure don't the last inflation report, and set of forecasts that was based on, didn't factor in a no-deal brexit. I wouldn't expect interest rates rises if we dive into a recession, even then the usual rules of higher rates = stronger currency may not apply due the exceptional circumstances going on the UK, you'd have to be a madman to invest here.
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When was the last time lorries got backed up from dover to birmingham?
When was the last time the UK committed suicide?
Or maybe if they were loaded onto a ferry by crane like in the 1950s and 1960s, the good old days. Times they are a-changing.
Still not an answer
16000 trucks a day each with 2 minute delays = 17 mile queue.
Dover to Birmingham is 212 miles.
212/17 = 12.5 days approx.
The answer is somewhere around 10th April 2019 although they'd have probably given up by then .
Had to explain to a couple of Brexit voters and now still nervous supporters that No Deal does not mean carry on as per now until we get the arrangement we want.
Think a lot of people are uneducated about the no deal scenario.
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Sorry but this is perfect
I've struck again.Sorry but this is perfect
Agree with this, particularly the bold bit. If we crash out with no deal i cant see Carney tightening policy, makes no sense.
That’s the “no deal better than a bad deal” lies fed to them by Brexiteers. In the post truth era people believe any old shit. Which is how we got in this fecked up situation in the first place.
Do we actually know what would happen in a 'no deal' scenario? I can't really fathom it but all I know is that it would be bad.
I think this will start to become clearer over the next few weeks as the EU start to prepare for it. The UK government will most likely still be sitting with their feet up during summer recess....
I'm in N.I, crashing out with no deal doesn't even bare thinking about. Seriously worrying.
I am going to a party this weekend and a guy there is a staunch leaver and very opinionated when it comes to one liners. i can generally argue my own and inevitably end up in a debate with him if the topic comes up, but have you guys got any good one liners / rhetorical questions that xould serve as an ace up my sleeve?
They definitely will be. They're even pushing for an early holiday this year.
You can't make it up.Mate, I think you live in the place that it will hit hardest, quite frankly.
Funnily enough I reckon it's the urban sprawls that largely voted to remain that this will affect the least, like London, and the more rural parts that largely voted leave that it will hit hardest.
Fellow Ulsterman here mate - I too am frankly scared about what could happen.
As others have said, hard Brexit and all trade grinding to a complete halt has certainly not been factored in. You'd probably be looking at one of the worst days trading in the history of sterling and that's no exaggeration.
The last thing the BoE will do is raise interest rates. The economy is weak as it is and cannot take a rate rise. Remember the emergency 25bps cut straight after the referendum result? Inflation has peaked for now, but obviously that will change if sterling crashes and we're paying tariffs on imports as well. Carney will have a nightmare job trying to balance the economy, but he'd defo rather let inflation rise than risk a rate hike.
Feels like its kind of impossible to say really. A genuine no deal without any last second arrangements for anything is practically fecking apocalyptical for the UK, which is why no-one thought it was a genuine option. We're talking planes unable to fly to the continent, Dover coming to a complete standstill and the roads gridlocking with trucks across the country and supermarkets running out of food and hospitals out of medicine within an estimated 2 weeks. It's basically utterly unthinkable. Which is why its so terrifying that the government insisted on repeating that 'Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed'. What it would mean for UK citizens in the EU like me, and the millions of EU citizens in the UK is totally unknown.
100% with Mozza on this one. I'd absolutely be talking to a financial advisor right now about the possibility of shifting most of your cash into a different currency. That sounds crazy, but seriously if no-deal actually happens then the pound could get obliterated.
Staggered we're in this position... its like the country is trying to handicap itself. What the feck are we doing.
Bitcoin is currently fueling it's rocket again if you are happy to take a risk.
From "no deal" Brexit to trade grinding to a complete halt, is a big leap though. You're basically describing Armageddon there. A single day's bad trading on the Sterling is not that significant. We already had that happen post Brexit vote, but a lot of that was recovered since.
Also the second paragraph is wrong to my knowledge. Signs of a weak pound and the first thing that BoE will do is raise interest rates, not the last. Because a weaker pound immediately translates to inflation, since we're mostly an importing nation in terms of basic basket goods. Ergo inflation has not peaked, not in the slightest. The Bank will try to counter the selling of the Sterling by increasing the rates.
Again, I'm not really saying that everything will go exactly as I say. I'm just saying that many people here predict doom very prematurely. There's strong fundamentals in the British economy and that doesn't change over night. I don't know why you think the economy is particularly weak at the moment. Growth figures are somewhat sluggish, but we do have low unemployment, increasing real incomes and public finances that are mostly alright now with low deficit (pre-Crisis levels) and manageable debt.
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Isn't No Deal Brexit going to cause global companies to start moving away from the UK though? I know theres been several threats, but you wouldn't expect them to stick around throug loyalty. This hasnt happened yet as they were all assuming the country would see reason and have a soft brexit.
Loyalty is not a thing in business. Generally the UK offers a good proposition for services companies that want a European base because it has an English-speaking, highly skilled workforce with a big jobs market and a pretty solid legal framework to work with. The access to the single market will change but the rest of the fundamentals will not.
The larger the investment the company has made in the UK, the costlier it is to move. Companies with >5k employees can't up sticks and move overnight. I reckon the majority of them will originally stay put and assess the situation as it progresses because everything is too volatile at the moment to act upon. They'll initially absorb the cost and make some contingency plans and after the first financial year post-Brexit, when the dust has settled a bit, they will be in a position to make a more informed decision.
We have big trade deals with Trump
Are we sure about that?
As fresh food will be in short supply next April, ask him if he has placed his order with Trump for tins of Spam that the USA have been trying to get rid of since WW2. They're a bit past their sell by date but the UK will no longer worry about standards.
I was not being serious. My guess is that we are screwed if there is a hard brexit .
Do you genuinely believe the UK will have a food shortage as an aftermath of Brexit?