I really can't see it happening in Western Europe, if there is a nation that I think could be led out of the EU it would be the likes of Italy, Poland, Hungary and maybe Greece.
I hope there are no tariffs on irony , because this has industrial quantities of it
I can’t see it happening anywhere to be honest - even in those countries such as Hungary where you could whip up a culture war against the EU, the financial incentive of membership is huge.I really can't see it happening in Western Europe, if there is a nation that I think could be led out of the EU it would be the likes of Italy, Poland, Hungary and maybe Greece.
So so true.The only way Leave could win was if they told lies. As the truth gradually unfolds people will realise it, not necessarily admitting that they had been duped.
Additionally the Leave campaigners themselves didn't have a clue what Leave actually meant but that was not a problem, they just said what they thought people wanted to hear. Facts were completely irrelevant.
People are acting surprised by the initial problems, but if anyone had listened to people who knew what they were talking about, this wouldn't have happened and there are a lot more yet to surface
The problem was that they were never seriously challenged and this is vital, never tolerate lies and ignorance, it has to be challenged incessantly.
That's what they said about Brexit.I can’t see it happening anywhere to be honest - even in those countries such as Hungary where you could whip up a culture war against the EU, the financial incentive of membership is huge.
I know what you mean but in Hungary, for example, the ruling circle and their cronies themselves make money directly from EU grants. I am fairly sure Johnson, Gove, JRM etc would not have been pushing for Brexit if they would be hit directly.That's what they said about Brexit.
Never underestimate the power of manipulation that can be used to influence people to act against their own best interest. They are paid to tell lies for a purpose.
I thought NI was in the customs union?You can really see the effect its having on supermarkets in NI. Lots of empty shelves in M&S and Tesco this weekend especially in fresh stuff, fruit, veg and meats. M&S published a list of 300 items that won't be available in NI for a while.
Not very Brexit-related considering Spain, Belgium and Denmark are also allowing it.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/scotlands-seafood-exporters-dealt-post-182349947.htmlThe post-Brexit woes facing Scotland's fishing industry deepened on Saturday as its biggest logistics provider, DFDS Scotland, said it would halt exports to the European Union through one of its main services until at least Wednesday.
Previously the company had said it would take until Monday to resume its "groupage" export service - which allows exporters to ship multiple products in a single consignment - while it tries to fix IT issues, paperwork errors and a backlog of goods.
DFDS's move represents another blow for Scottish fishermen who this week warned that their businesses could become unviable after Britain shifted to a less integrated trade deal with the EU at the turn of the year.
The introduction of health certificates, customs declarations and other paperwork has added days to delivery times and hundreds of pounds to the cost of each load, undermining a system that used to put fresh seafood into French shops just over a day after it was harvested.
An excellent considered post.Weekly food shop was already too high for many, foodbanks became the norm in many areas;
Unemployment was worsening, zero hours contracts became more prevalent. They were ok for some who need the working time flexibility, not for those with families who need working hours (paid)certainty;
Universal Benefits are already in place giving a much narrow range of benefits to many in these deprived areas, on worsening protocols;
Even families (with 2.4 kids) with both parents working could not afford holidays, time-off as well as financial restrictions;
Shops closing virtually every week, also including Post Offices and Banks, even some ATMs were removed in specific areas.
When did you ever hear a remain campaigner saying to people in such as these areas, that things will get better if we stay in the EU; all they offered was more of the same, or warnings of dire consequences, or 'project fear' as the Brexiteers gleefully seized upon and named such warnings.
Yes its true all the above may well get worse as 'fall out' from Brexit, but for people who were already at the sharp end of the above, and had been for sometime, then telling them to vote remain, (in effect for more of the same) was a nonsense. Brexit was offering 'a change' and for those in the above situations it was 'an idea whose time had come'.
Realistically Labour should have romped home in both post and pre referendum GE's, but with Corbyn in charge and unable to make up their mind on the EU . Then Tories got a free ride and ultimately all but wiped out Labour in its heartlands.
When you add the above to the other reasons for voting Brexit (which many gave at the time) you can see this was the main grouping that remainers might have won over with some thought to how they campaigned. People who voted Brexit for 'sovereignty, ending free movement, control of our own laws etc. would always have voted Brexit, it was their new religion. People who wanted a better life however were never given any consideration, they either had to vote to stay as they were, or were enticed to vote for the dream, the idea whose time has come!
Although I understand what you're getting at and agree with certain parts . The trouble is that there's one fateful flaw in all this.Weekly food shop was already too high for many, foodbanks became the norm in many areas;
Unemployment was worsening, zero hours contracts became more prevalent. They were ok for some who need the working time flexibility, not for those with families who need working hours (paid)certainty;
Universal Benefits are already in place giving a much narrow range of benefits to many in these deprived areas, on worsening protocols;
Even families (with 2.4 kids) with both parents working could not afford holidays, time-off as well as financial restrictions;
Shops closing virtually every week, also including Post Offices and Banks, even some ATMs were removed in specific areas.
When did you ever hear a remain campaigner saying to people in such as these areas, that things will get better if we stay in the EU; all they offered was more of the same, or warnings of dire consequences, or 'project fear' as the Brexiteers gleefully seized upon and named such warnings.
Yes its true all the above may well get worse as 'fall out' from Brexit, but for people who were already at the sharp end of the above, and had been for sometime, then telling them to vote remain, (in effect for more of the same) was a nonsense. Brexit was offering 'a change' and for those in the above situations it was 'an idea whose time had come'.
Realistically Labour should have romped home in both post and pre referendum GE's, but with Corbyn in charge and unable to make up their mind on the EU . Then Tories got a free ride and ultimately all but wiped out Labour in its heartlands.
When you add the above to the other reasons for voting Brexit (which many gave at the time) you can see this was the main grouping that remainers might have won over with some thought to how they campaigned. People who voted Brexit for 'sovereignty, ending free movement, control of our own laws etc. would always have voted Brexit, it was their new religion. People who wanted a better life however were never given any consideration, they either had to vote to stay as they were, or were enticed to vote for the dream, the idea whose time has come!
The problem was that most of the people campaigning to remain weren't in government. So they couldn't promise that things would get better by staying in the EU, because that would be transparently misleading. Leave had the advantage that *something* was changing, so they could use that as a basis to claim that all those changes would be wildly positive for everyone, and of course anyone suggesting those changes would be bad could be easily dismissed as project fear.Weekly food shop was already too high for many, foodbanks became the norm in many areas;
Unemployment was worsening, zero hours contracts became more prevalent. They were ok for some who need the working time flexibility, not for those with families who need working hours (paid)certainty;
Universal Benefits are already in place giving a much narrow range of benefits to many in these deprived areas, on worsening protocols;
Even families (with 2.4 kids) with both parents working could not afford holidays, time-off as well as financial restrictions;
Shops closing virtually every week, also including Post Offices and Banks, even some ATMs were removed in specific areas.
When did you ever hear a remain campaigner saying to people in such as these areas, that things will get better if we stay in the EU; all they offered was more of the same, or warnings of dire consequences, or 'project fear' as the Brexiteers gleefully seized upon and named such warnings.
Yes its true all the above may well get worse as 'fall out' from Brexit, but for people who were already at the sharp end of the above, and had been for sometime, then telling them to vote remain, (in effect for more of the same) was a nonsense. Brexit was offering 'a change' and for those in the above situations it was 'an idea whose time had come'.
Realistically Labour should have romped home in both post and pre referendum GE's, but with Corbyn in charge and unable to make up their mind on the EU . Then Tories got a free ride and ultimately all but wiped out Labour in its heartlands.
When you add the above to the other reasons for voting Brexit (which many gave at the time) you can see this was the main grouping that remainers might have won over with some thought to how they campaigned. People who voted Brexit for 'sovereignty, ending free movement, control of our own laws etc. would always have voted Brexit, it was their new religion. People who wanted a better life however were never given any consideration, they either had to vote to stay as they were, or were enticed to vote for the dream, the idea whose time has come!
the main stance of the government was to Remain. I think you are wrong.The problem was that most of the people campaigning to remain weren't in government. So they couldn't promise that things would get better by staying in the EU, because that would be transparently misleading. Leave had the advantage that *something* was changing, so they could use that as a basis to claim that all those changes would be wildly positive for everyone, and of course anyone suggesting those changes would be bad could be easily dismissed as project fear.
The government 'officially' campaigned for remain, but Johnson siding with leave was a huge moment. He, nor Gove, were 'outside of the government', they were just able to propagate their lies due to the complicity of a large swathe of the press and the fact our political institutions have no teeth when it comes to holding politicians to account for blatant lying.the main stance of the government was to Remain. I think you are wrong.
I would say it’s the other way round. Those campaigning to leave were outside of the government, and so could promote their stance with less scrutiny.
if you were to tot up who was on each side, the numbers of MPs and those in the Cabinet were overwhelmingly in favour of Remain.The government 'officially' campaigned for remain, but Johnson siding with leave was a huge moment. He, nor Gove, were 'outside of the government', they were just able to propagate their lies due to the complicity of a large swathe of the press and the fact our political institutions have no teeth when it comes to holding politicians to account for blatant lying.
Numerically there were more pro-remain, but there were plenty of loud voices on the leave side. The likes of Gove, IDS, Redwood, JRM and the ERG crowd all got loads of coverage, columns in the Telegraph and Sun etc...Even Mark fecking Francois became a household name.if you were to tot up who was on each side, the numbers of MPs and those in the Cabinet were overwhelmingly in favour of Remain.
Boris was clearly a big personality, and probably won the referendum for Leave - but he was in the minority.
indeed. Clearly we disagree. But been done to death.Numerically there were more pro-remain, but there were plenty of loud voices on the leave side. The likes of Gove, IDS, Redwood, JRM and the ERG crowd all got loads of coverage, columns in the Telegraph and Sun etc...Even Mark fecking Francois became a household name.
Anyway, we're going over old ground.
It seems a lot of people are, I fear this happening to me when I need to buy something online.Are people in the UK experiencing any effects from Brexit, when shopping online? Or are you able to get everything easy enough from within the UK? Online shopping for me has become an absolute nightmare, literally everything I buy/have interest in comes from the UK. I accidentally bought a vinyl from the UK without thinking the other day, and it's going to cost me > 40 quid after taxes.
Everyday will be like Black Friday, but instead of fistfighting in the aisles of Asda over the last crap massive flatscreen TV, it'll be over tomato soup and potatoes.I'm worried what happens when the stockpiles run out and lorries are still stuck at the border.
The problem is the UK government are still lying to the people and in particular , Gove. The customs checks and tariffs and duties and VAT and phytosanitary checks and veterinary checks and rules of origin and all the rest of the bureaucracy are not going to go away. People will get used to it and become more efficient but this system is not suitable for countries geographically close because there is not enough time (nevermind the costings) to deal with it.It seems a lot of people are, I fear this happening to me when I need to buy something online.
I'm worried what happens when the stockpiles run out and lorries are still stuck at the border.
Absolutely, people have to be held to account and lessons have to be learnt.Seems like this is similar to the last four years of hell here in America.
You can’t simply discount the abject idiocy of the electorate who voted for both abortions in both cases, Brexit & Trump. It’s squarely on them. Politicians lie & will continue to lie, this will not change ever. The knowledge of the electorate is what can be changed. It may have to come from the other side lying more as someone in here stated.
But to not apportion rightful blame on those who voted for Brexit / Trump is to miss the point entirely. Gaslighting or whitewashing is what causes repeated horror, not holding feet to fires. It’s a messy way of going forward, it doesn’t feel as good as forgiving, but actions have consequences & they need to be discussed without fears of hurting feelings.
And it seems that the negative consequences will be felt far more acutely by the Leave voters in the UK than Trump voters getting Biden here.Absolutely, people have to be held to account and lessons have to be learnt.
The advantage the USA had with Trump is that they could get rid of him after four years, which they have.
The UK is stuck with this for an indefinite number of years, decades until they rejoin the Customs Union and Single Market if they ever do so.
If and when that type of things happen, Boris and his party, who wouldn't know the truth even when there are massive que's at the food banks, would lie yet again and find someone else to blame. They probably have a long list already.Everyday will be like Black Friday, but instead of fistfighting in the aisles of Asda over the last crap massive flatscreen TV, it'll be over tomato soup and potatoes.
They'll say they have plenty of food, but EU parasites have somehow siphoned all of it elsewhere.If and when that type of things happen, Boris and his party, who wouldn't know the truth even when there are massive que's at the food banks, would lie yet again and find someone else to blame. They probably have a long list already.
Supply problems, I noticed it the other day on Amazon. There's a number of products that the delivery estimate is into February. Granted these are electrical items, but if they have a supply issue bringing those into the country then it'll spread to everything, it's just waiting for the stock to run out in the warehouses.My friend up in Lancashire said there are empty shelves in the supermarkets. Is this panic-buying, supply problems or a bit of both?
I agree with this, but it cuts across party lines, all UK Governments of whatever persuasion, when it suited their purpose blamed Brussels and were aided and abetted by certain media groups. It still doesn't relieve the remain campaigners from not recognising the aspiration of people in run down areas, whose admittedly limited aspiration was, a job, a home, some possible glimmer of a future where things got better where they lived, in their town, who didn't want to move, who didn't want/ could not go to University, or travel the world, because they had commitments to their families; people who on the whole would be happy to remain (excuse the pun) where they were, and in many ways represented the traditional working class values.Although I understand what you're getting at and agree with certain parts . The trouble is that there's one fateful flaw in all this.
The blame for their problems had been shifted by the government onto the EU, as has been the case for donkeys years.
I think there were around 30 prominent Remainers in the Tory party ranks, 'Grandees' such as Heseltine and Clarke and Cabinet members in particular the Chancellor and the Official Solicitor etc. It was not a matter of promising, after all most people view politicians promises as being like 'pie-crust', it was simple of providing a dream/ideal for those with simple working class, albeit in many ways limited aspiration. Of course you could perhaps forgive Tory's for not understanding such views, it not their natural habitat; but Labour failed these people miserably and have paid the price.The problem was that most of the people campaigning to remain weren't in government. So they couldn't promise that things would get better by staying in the EU, because that would be transparently misleading.
I agree it cuts across party lines and everyone blamed the EU when it suited them.I agree with this, but it cuts across party lines, all UK Governments of whatever persuasion, when it suited their purpose blamed Brussels and were aided and abetted by certain media groups. It still doesn't relieve the remain campaigners from not recognising the aspiration of people in run down areas, whose admittedly limited aspiration was, a job, a home, some possible glimmer of a future where things got better where they lived, in their town, who didn't want to move, who didn't want/ could not go to University, or travel the world, because they had commitments to their families; people who on the whole would be happy to remain (excuse the pun) where they were, and in many ways represented the traditional working class values.
Labour remainers in particular, lost their 'working class values' and swung more left wing, becoming seen in the 'red wall' areas, in particular as being intellectual and an Islington based party etc. of course they paid at the GE, the phrase at least you know where you are with the Tories was heard quite often in Working men's clubs.
My whole point was there was a 'constituency' among those leaning towards Brexit, who just wanted reassurance from the remain camp that was that 'things would get better' and it would IMO have swung the vote, but they never got it. It was not a question of lying to people it was of giving them hope, but it never came!
That is exactly my point they could not ... but should have.The government are responsible for the UK budget, the tax laws, pensions, NI, benefits, social care, the health service, zero hours contracts and many more things so staying in or leaving the EU was not going to change that. How could remainers say that staying in the EU would improve any of the above.
But that would be a lie. What the UK sent to the EU was less than 1% of the UK budget and the benefits the UK had just from trading far outweigh that i.e. lower prices in the shops, that was explained by remainers but they were not listened to. The EU sent money to poorer parts of the UK to invest in projects.That is exactly my point they could not ... but should have.
Many of the EU states, the smaller ones in particular who have significant populations at low subsistence levels, but who have seen massive improvements since they joined the EU, are examples of how the EU has improved the lot of working people; but this has not happened in the UK, indeed many people in the declining areas of the UK have made the connection (or had it made for them by Brexiteers) that their 'suffering' is at the expense of the improvements in other EU states, i.e. because the UK is sending Billions of pounds to the EU each year which in theory could be spent in the UK... perhaps on the NHS!!
The ideal of the EU with its 'ever closer Union' would/should have been used to counteract this 'robbing Peter to pay Paul' idea, but guess what the remain message was more of the same folks and should you even think about leaving, you will all be destitute and poor in a few years...oh sorry you are already half-way there!
And that is what the remain campaign should have been about... posing that question then providing the hard evidence, e.g. from money received from projects (as you say) or identifying other benefits, that would accrue in the future actions from the EU. Actions that would force national governments to address the longer term problems in their deprived areas, such as the rejuvenation of post industrial local economies. In some areas eg. ex-mining in South Wales or Yorkshire there was help identified from the EU, but it was temporary and often when the project money disappeared so did the project.As I said the question should have been , who is causing your problems?
But the question wasn't answered by the Leave campaign either. Apart from the lie about the NHS money, what else did they actually promise? They have been asked repeatedly for nearly five years, what are the benefits of leaving, they still haven't answered. Yet these people voted for leave despite them having no answers. Doubt blue passports were their major priority, and even this petty thing was a lie.And that is what the remain campaign should have been about... posing that question then providing the hard evidence, e.g. from money received from projects (as you say) or identifying other benefits, that would accrue in the future actions from the EU. Actions that would force national governments to address the longer term problems in their deprived areas, such as the rejuvenation of post industrial local economies. In some areas eg. ex-mining in South Wales or Yorkshire there was help identified from the EU, but it was temporary and often when the project money disappeared so did the project.
However the problem was no one did, except Brexiteers e.g. although the £300,000 for NHS, was laughable, but it could/just might have worked! It was something different and positive, would make change possible, etc. even if subsequently it never arrived.
All the 'blue sky' thinking' emerged from the Brexiteers, nothing from remain.
To be honest I don't think it would have changed the mind of those you describe. My argument was that a sufficient number of traditional working class voters could have changed their minds to have affected an overall vote to remain, if an appeal to their modest aspirations had been taken on board by the remain campaign in the way it presented its case.But the question wasn't answered by the Leave campaign either. Apart from the lie about the NHS money, what else did they actually promise? They have been asked repeatedly for nearly five years, what are the benefits of leaving, they still haven't answered. Yet these people voted for leave despite them having no answers. Doubt blue passports were their major priority, and even this petty thing was a lie.
From a personal point of view, having lived in the south-eastern part of England all the time I lived in the UK, I never knew anyone from deprived northern areas but I know plenty of people who voted Brexit, none of them lived in deprived areas, none were poor and I don't think any of them have changed their minds. How could Remain have changed their minds? This was the imaginary sovereignty issue presumably.