While it may be counter-intuitive, the fact that 3 out of 4 clubs are Italian does not necessarily mean that there is a 75% chance that one of them gets to the final. That would only be the case if you think all teams are completely equal (i.e. they have exactly the same probability to qualify) or if the sum of the probabilities for each Italian team in your opinion equals 75% (e.g. if you think that Napoli has a 35% chance to advance to the final, 25% for Milan and 15% for Inter). That's why I said "it depends".
Anyway, I was just being pedantic, because it annoys me when people use probabilities loosely (and incorrectly).