Club Sale | It’s done!

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Roboc7

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Firstly, I think there's a slight misconception that the Glazers are in this only for the money. Yeah, it's a big factor. But two of the children (Avram and Joel) are known to have a genuine affinity to the club now and they want to stay. That shouldn't be dismissed lightly and I think it has been underplayed.

Secondly, I think they believe they can grow the club's value even more over the next few years. There has been horrible mismanagement over the last decade and they will know that - they're not stupid. I think they believe that if management is improved over a number of years they can increase the value of the club. They already have gone a long way to correcting this with the appointment of ETH and clearly things are going in the right direction on the field. Elliott are also known to be pretty ruthless, smart and efficient and I'm sure the Glazers think they can help in trimming more of the fat at the club.

In short, I don't think they will cash out because - 1) Two of the Glazers actually want to stay. 2) They believe they are on the right track to improve the management of the club and thus increase its value over the next few years.

Only an extraordinary offer from the Qataris or SJR will change the dynamics imo, and I don't think it's forthcoming.
They don’t have any affinity they just think there’s more money to be made, I just think those two are looking for the price they thought they were going to get if the ESL hadn’t of been blocked. They are just the greediest.

You say they aren’t stupid but they clearly aren’t very good at running a football club and I don’t see why anyone would be stupid enough to give them money to carry on doing so given their incompetence (unless it’s that incompetence likes of Elliott are banking on exploiting).

Any significant increase in value is going to take a long time and or a large new revenue stream. Some short term success on the field won’t do a lot and the club has thought things are going in the right direction before so likelihood of owners banking on ETH seem unlikely.
 
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MegadrivePerson

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Qatar will have moved onto Liverpool or Spurs long before that.
Liverpool were put up for sale/investment before we we were and Qatar weren't interested despite Liverpool having a lower asking price.

Spurs would be a worry though as they have an incredible new stadium, plus the London lure is a big pull for foreign investors.
 

NK86

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He could be an oppo hoping the Glazers stay, in the vain hope that ETH isn’t going to win the league soon.
That's the only logical reason when someone says that any of the Glazers have a "genuine affinity" for the club. Why are people even bothering to respond to him is the bigger mystery after he spouted that.
 

MegadrivePerson

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Firstly, I think there's a slight misconception that the Glazers are in this only for the money. Yeah, it's a big factor. But two of the children (Avram and Joel) are known to have a genuine affinity to the club now and they want to stay. That shouldn't be dismissed lightly and I think it has been underplayed.

Secondly, I think they believe they can grow the club's value even more over the next few years. There has been horrible mismanagement over the last decade and they will know that - they're not stupid. I think they believe that if management is improved over a number of years they can increase the value of the club. They already have gone a long way to correcting this with the appointment of ETH and clearly things are going in the right direction on the field. Elliott are also known to be pretty ruthless, smart and efficient and I'm sure the Glazers think they can help in trimming more of the fat at the club.

In short, I don't think they will cash out because - 1) Two of the Glazers actually want to stay. 2) They believe they are on the right track to improve the management of the club and thus increase its value over the next few years.

Only an extraordinary offer from the Qataris or SJR will change the dynamics imo, and I don't think it's forthcoming.
Really good post, I agree with you.

In so many ways the arrival of ETH and our good performances this season have made it less likely that Avram and Joel will move on as they know fans are far less likely to protest or disrupt the team when results on the pitch are going well. Looking at the amount of talented players under the age of 25 that we currently have it's very likely that we can continue this seasons upward trajectory without needing to spend big in the transfer market. We are only two or three players away from having a squad capable of winning leagues and Champions Leagues, so the value of United could be much higher in two or three years time.
 

strandty

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- Commercial revenue up
- Broadcast revenue down
- Matchday revenue down
- Total revenue down
- Club paying off 'credit card' by the end of next quarter (not sure if this is a positive or a sign of them staying)
- Decrease in salaries due to not playing in UCL and squad turnover
- Due to interest rate changes, overall debt stands at £535.7m compared to £477.1m the year before
- £31m in cash and cash equivalents
 
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sglowrider

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I don’t think he’s hiding his wealth, just saving £4bn in tax each year. He can buy the glazers shares outright with that kind of saving, if do it too if I were in his position!
Please you dont make all the effort to uproot the family just to get a tax break. There will be financial resources that will be hidden or designed to escape taxes. You can bet your last dollar that he will have a swiss account.
 

Plant0x84

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Please you dont make all the effort to uproot the family just to get a tax break. There will be financial resources that will be hidden or designed to escape taxes. You can bet your last dollar that he will have a swiss account.
For £4billion with grown up kids you do.
He will definitely have a Swiss account, cos he owns a Swiss team/business;)
 

Roboc7

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Really good post, I agree with you.

In so many ways the arrival of ETH and our good performances this season have made it less likely that Avram and Joel will move on as they know fans are far less likely to protest or disrupt the team when results on the pitch are going well. Looking at the amount of talented players under the age of 25 that we currently have it's very likely that we can continue this seasons upward trajectory without needing to spend big in the transfer market. We are only two or three players away from having a squad capable of winning leagues and Champions Leagues, so the value of United could be much higher in two or three years time.
Even if we do win the league soon the value of the club is not going to change significantly, just as it won’t if we finish 5th. The Glazers don’t have any ambition to win the League for exactly that reason, the figures don’t work for them.

We do have some good young players but have plenty of gaps in the team and also have a lot of key players that are 30. There is also increased competition just to make the top 4 so I think the idea we won’t have to spend a lot is flawed, we’ll have to do just to be a top 4 team let alone anything more than that.
 

Infra-red

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Not quite. The actual statement in the Q2 report: "Based on the club’s expected seasonal working capital cycle, it is anticipated that the club would be able to reduce the balance on the club’s facilities to zero at June 30, 2023."

The club anticipates that it would be able to pay down the balance on the revolving credit facility (does not say that they will pay it down, but this does have an obvious implication for future net debt calculations).
 

sglowrider

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Does this mean it’s more likely they’re staying or what?
Its interesting how the Atlhetic isn't giving the whole picture; a media-driven skewed picture instead:

Man Utd's debts increase in latest financial results amid Qatar and Ratcliffe takeover talks

United say that total revenue is down 10% year-on-year despite the figures showing that commercial revenue has increased by 22.2% to £78.7 million, with the club's matchday revenues down despite record sales of tickets, hospitality and memberships and broadcasting income taking a hit.
Despite that the club said that it made a net profit of £6.3 million for the quarter, which included a five-week break from first-team action because of the World Cup, and for the fiscal year it expects total revenue to be between £590 million and £610 million, with "its adjusted EBITDA guidance of £125 million to £140 million."
United, who claim that there is a season ticket waiting list of 145,000, added: "Total operating expenses for the quarter were £167.6 million, a decrease of £12.1 million, or 6.7%, over the prior year quarter."
Basically, Arnold has been able to reduce costs to improve the bottom line. It looks good for a buyer.
 
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Infra-red

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Its interesting how the Atlhetic isn't giving the whole picture; a media-driven skewed picture instead:

Man Utd's debts increase in latest financial results amid Qatar and Ratcliffe takeover talks
Reduction in Q2 matchday revenue was anticipated (fewer games due to World Cup).
 

Chief123

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Combine it with all the noise from other sources like Keegan and it's clear that it's looking quite likely that the Glazers will stay.
We would most likely have heard news or information coming out if there was a feeling inside that a deal couldn’t be struck with either of the two public bidders. There wouldn’t be any benefit in keeping the process with them going if there was no potential for a deal. If Glazers were using them for a proven valuation, then they’ve got it already. No need to proceed any further.

No news is good news in this scenario as it’s a lot easier to end proceedings than to continue further with it.
 

sglowrider

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Reduction in Q2 matchday revenue was anticipated (fewer games due to World Cup).
Yes. The numbers don't look as bad as the headlines.

The media headlines it with the ''increased debt'. But that's somewhat out of United's control due to macroeconomic factors.

My cynical mind tells me that Arnold could also be doing some measures to ensure that there's a positive light on United's books going forward -- just in time for the sale.
 

Roboc7

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Club is living off the revolving credit facility. They need to sell
Or they need to sell a fairly significant number of their shares and put that money back into the club. That would go against everything they’ve done since they bought the club.
 

Woziak

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Nothing is going to happen before next week and even then we'll probably only hear news of a further bidding round. Shut down your computer and go outside into the fresh air.
A complete guess on my part, but they agreed a value of the club with the siblings who wanted out, 4/6ths of say 3.5bn. Agreed to pay them their share on that amount. They then seek out bids for the club and inflate the value, and only have to sell 1/3rd of it to raise the funds for the buyout. Avram and Joel then sit on their share for 6-12 months then sell and let the club eat some interest payments to service the new debt. Net result is they get a lot more money.

There are a few flaws with this theory such as the other glazer siblings would have to be a bit stupid, but families don’t always work the same as a business.
There are flaws like the fact that all the glaziers also own an NFL franchise which is also losing cash the debt of both teams was estimated at $1.6bn in a recent article.

The smart play here is to fold one to consolidate the other, I still think this is a bluff to partner with Elliot Group however not impossible, and it could happen. The co owners Avram and Joel have the most to lose as they are not as Involved as Edward, Darcie and Bryan with the Buccaneers, although Joel is still a co owner. No one really knows the bids, media are leaking £5bn, £5.3bn , sportico £6bn no one knows because they can’t know because of the NDAs which were signed. Plus the Glaziers are slightly more revered in America than over here since they’ve won two super bowls under their ownership where they had previously won none. My point is they are looking to buy other sports franchise like cricket in the IPL, Qatar can help with that, they may want to take their NFL franchise to the Middle East, Qatar can help with that. They may even want to be majority owners in an Italian or spainish club with Middle East minority backing, Qatar can help with that. Do they really want to piss off the Qataris after cosying up to them all through the Winter World cup?
I don’t think so !

The negative rumours and the fact that there is actually no news, is probably Good news in so much that an annoying third round will probably be held for SJ, SJR and minority Elliot’s, probably starting next week where they try and get what they want, which might be actually more than £6bn.
 

sglowrider

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There are flaws like the fact that all the glaziers also own an NFL franchise which is also losing cash the debt of both teams was estimated at $1.6bn in a recent article.

The smart play here is to fold one to consolidate the other, I still think this is a bluff to partner with Elliot Group however not impossible, and it could happen. The co owners Avram and Joel have the most to lose as they are not as Involved as Edward, Darcie and Bryan with the Buccaneers, although Joel is still a co owner. No one really knows the bids, media are leaking £5bn, £5.3bn , sportico £6bn no one knows because they can’t know because of the NDAs which were signed. Plus the Glaziers are slightly more revered in America than over here since they’ve won two super bowls under their ownership where they had previously won none. My point is they are looking to buy other sports franchise like cricket in the IPL, Qatar can help with that, they may want to take their NFL franchise to the Middle East, Qatar can help with that. They may even want to be majority owners in an Italian or spainish club with Middle East minority backing, Qatar can help with that. Do they really want to piss off the Qataris after cosying up to them all through the Winter World cup?
I don’t think so !

The negative rumours and the fact that there is actually no news, is probably Good news in so much that an annoying third round will probably be held for SJ, SJR and minority Elliot’s, probably starting next week where they try and get what they want, which might be actually more than £6bn.
The Glazers already bought a T20 club in the Gulf. After this United project of growing value, I am sure they will try their hand at other ventures in emerging sports markets like the Gulf with the ££ they are getting.
If I was them I would do some JV with the Qataris post-sale.
 

Infra-red

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Or they need to sell a fairly significant number of their shares and put that money back into the club. That would go against everything they’ve done since they bought the club.
Or issue additional shares to sell (proceeds of sale would belong to the club and could be used for infra investment)?
 

Infra-red

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Yes. The numbers don't look as bad as the headlines.

The media headlines it with the ''increased debt'. But that's somewhat out of United's control due to macroeconomic factors.

My cynical mind tells me that Arnold could also be doing some measures to ensure that there's a positive light on United's books going forward -- just in time for the sale.
The acquisition debt remains unchanged, but the club did draw down an addition £100m from the credit facility in October (total drawdown now £200m). I agree re the last point. Increased ticket prices and no dividends also helps.
 

Nou_Camp99

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The 20% wage reduction when we don't qualify for the CL is the ONLY good thing Ed Woodward ever managed to do.
 

backofthenet

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Numbers definitely look like we cannot continue in the current path we have with the Glazers. Our incomes are not matching our outgoings currently. I can understand why, after quite a few years, they've decided to up ticket costs, as that drawdown facility cannot be cheap on interest. Whilst overall wages to turnover looks reasonably healthy, I think its clear that we need some fairly sizeable transfer incomings to do pretty much anything in the summer.
 

Woziak

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The Glazers already bought a T20 club in the Gulf. After this United project of growing value, I am sure they will try their hand at other ventures in emerging sports markets like the Gulf with the ££ they are getting.
If I was them I would do some JV with the Qataris post-sale.
Didn’t know about the cricket team, they will obviously tour Qatar as the Middle East is a growing cricket market. The fact the Glaziers will have paid off their Credit Card line of £100m by June actually suggests they are preparing the club for some sort of takeover let’s hope it’s a full one.
 

Infra-red

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Didn’t know about the cricket team, they will obviously tour Qatar as the Middle East is a growing cricket market. The fact the Glaziers will have paid off their Credit Card line of £100m by June actually suggests they are preparing the club for some sort of takeover let’s hope it’s a full one.
It's currently £206m
 

Beachryan

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I'm not sure if it's a Q2 thing, but aren't we really seasonal in terms of cash flow as a business? I seem to remember someone sensible like Swiss Ramble writing up something on it, where it doesn't make sense to look outside of the full year view.

Having non-stop home games in every cup has got to help too.
 
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