Club Sale | It’s done!

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Nogho

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Firstly, we have no idea what Jassim was offering or how it was sctructured. Only reports of what it might have been.

The fact is that the Glazers value the club currently at about 6bn pounds, which neither offer gets close to. It has also been widely reported that they believe the value will continue to increase significantly over the next 5 years, to the point where they think it will be worth 10bn. This through better activation of individual fans around the world, mobile streaming rights in emerging markets, the next round of TV deals, and their belief in the eventual lift of the 3pm blackout on domestic rights.

Given the club was worth 790m when they bought it, and this latest partial sale values it at 4.4bn, means that there is plenty of growth in this “brand”. But more importantly, is how they see it. That there is much, much more value to be realised.

They will clearly exit at some point. The reason they bought it in the first place, was to eventually exit. They just don’t think they’ve maximised, or even close, the value yet.

Selling a 25% stake means they can get some outside investment in. 300m immediately. It also means they have a shareholder partner that has a huge net worth and that increases their ability to borrow at favourable terms. They clearly recognise that to take the next step, outside investment is needed. So they will piecemeal this out.

They’ll probably sell another 25% when it comes time to completely revamp or rebuild OT. Bringing more outside investment in. And then finally sell their remaining shareholding once they feel full value has been realised. Probably once the club is worth 7-10bn.

That’s their likely plan anyway. Jim is bringing with him the funds to revamp the training ground. And probably inject some transfer capital too. They’ve given him sporting control because he has more experience and passion in that area and if he is successful, then their shareholding value will only increase. It’s win/win for them.

They will exit, it’s just a question of when. And I suspect it’ll take another 4-6 years for them to be fully out.

There’s a lot of talk about the Sheik’s deal being worth 31 a share, but somehow 5.2bn. You only get to 5.2bn in pounds if you add the 800-900m he promised to invest, into the value of the deal. And if they were selling everything, why would the Glazer’s give a single shit about that? They have never cared about what’s good for the club.

At the end of the day, they’d rather sell 25% at a 4.4bn valuation. 25% at a 6bn valuation. 25% at an 8bn valuation etc etc. Their entire strategy always has, and always will, bank on ever increasing valuation increases.

This deal allows them to sell the minimum amount they need to at the current valuation - which is lower than what they ultimately want - get much needed investment into infrastructure, bring on a powerful partner, retain ultimate control, and take themselves out of the firing line on the sporting side. The work Arnold did to separate the sporting and commercial side was almost certainly done with this sort of deal in mind. I’m just not sure he realised it. Which is probably why he left on bad terms.
Thank you so much for this post. Actually made me understand and realise what the Glazers are up to. Appreciated!
 

PeteRae

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My calculation is SJR will own around 27% of the whole club am I correct?
 

lostcauz

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Firstly, we have no idea what Jassim was offering or how it was sctructured. Only reports of what it might have been.

The fact is that the Glazers value the club currently at about 6bn pounds, which neither offer gets close to. It has also been widely reported that they believe the value will continue to increase significantly over the next 5 years, to the point where they think it will be worth 10bn. This through better activation of individual fans around the world, mobile streaming rights in emerging markets, the next round of TV deals, and their belief in the eventual lift of the 3pm blackout on domestic rights.

Given the club was worth 790m when they bought it, and this latest partial sale values it at 4.4bn, means that there is plenty of growth in this “brand”. But more importantly, is how they see it. That there is much, much more value to be realised.

They will clearly exit at some point. The reason they bought it in the first place, was to eventually exit. They just don’t think they’ve maximised, or even close, the value yet.

Selling a 25% stake means they can get some outside investment in. 300m immediately. It also means they have a shareholder partner that has a huge net worth and that increases their ability to borrow at favourable terms. They clearly recognise that to take the next step, outside investment is needed. So they will piecemeal this out.

They’ll probably sell another 25% when it comes time to completely revamp or rebuild OT. Bringing more outside investment in. And then finally sell their remaining shareholding once they feel full value has been realised. Probably once the club is worth 7-10bn.

That’s their likely plan anyway. Jim is bringing with him the funds to revamp the training ground. And probably inject some transfer capital too. They’ve given him sporting control because he has more experience and passion in that area and if he is successful, then their shareholding value will only increase. It’s win/win for them.

They will exit, it’s just a question of when. And I suspect it’ll take another 4-6 years for them to be fully out.

There’s a lot of talk about the Sheik’s deal being worth 31 a share, but somehow 5.2bn. You only get to 5.2bn in pounds if you add the 800-900m he promised to invest, into the value of the deal. And if they were selling everything, why would the Glazer’s give a single shit about that? They have never cared about what’s good for the club.

At the end of the day, they’d rather sell 25% at a 4.4bn valuation. 25% at a 6bn valuation. 25% at an 8bn valuation etc etc. Their entire strategy always has, and always will, bank on ever increasing valuation increases.

This deal allows them to sell the minimum amount they need to at the current valuation - which is lower than what they ultimately want - get much needed investment into infrastructure, bring on a powerful partner, retain ultimate control, and take themselves out of the firing line on the sporting side. The work Arnold did to separate the sporting and commercial side was almost certainly done with this sort of deal in mind. I’m just not sure he realised it. Which is probably why he left on bad terms.
SJR is buying in at close to a £5B valuation, it comes in at £4.4B once debt has been accounted for.
I believe I read that SJR had to buy a minimum of 25% otherwise he wouldn’t be allowed any kind of control so he’s buying the fewest amount of A shares possible.
The next time he looks to buy shares, it will likely just be B class shares but he could hoover up some class A shares once the price stabilises over the next year and before any new tv deals or added revenue can push the NYSE stock higher.

I find it unlikely but if the Glazers are right in thinking the club can take in 1B a year, I wouldn’t be surprised if they try to start paying some on the debt down, especially now they don’t need dividends.
Ultimately they can pay it off with club income and not have to take debt into account when valuing the club.
 

lex talionis

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Moyes wanted Fabregas, Mata, Baines and later Kroos, whom he actually signed only to get sacked. LvG then vetoed Kroos for Ander Herrera. Commercial club, see.
I acknowledged in a previous post Moyes wanted Fabregas as well, but he did want and he did get Fellaini as his one summer signing that year. And the next January, he wanted and got Mata as well. I was a huge fan of Mata and high hopes for him when he came to Old Trafford.

As everyone here stipulates, no manager gets every player he wants. Sometimes the player simply doesn't want to go that club and there's nothing the manager nor management can do about that. Sometimes management fukks it up.

But the record is very clear that Moyes wanted and got both Fellaini and Mata. Mata would have been a brilliant acquisition for us but Moyes insisted on using him as a winger and not a central attacking midfielder. As for Fellaini, he was an abomination of a footballer. Yes of course his chest control was legendary, perhaps the greatest chester of balls the game will ever see even a thousand years from now, but he had no business wearing a United shirt even as a squad man for stoppage time box crashing, his one attribute where it could be said he was average.
 

TrueRed79

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No oil fuelled, sports washing buyout. Glazers power diluted. Sacked an unqualified CEO. Appointing a more than qualified CEO. Appointing a new Sporting Director. Investing £250M of his own money for upgrading facilities. This is an ok start for me. Yes we would all prefer the Glazers fcuk off forever, but it's not happening right now. It will happen in the near future. I would be sick to my stomach if we ended up like, City, PSG and Newcastle. Too bad if that upsets you. We are better off than we were a year ago, for me.
 

gormless

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No oil fuelled, sports washing buyout. Glazers power diluted. Sacked an unqualified CEO. Appointing a more than qualified CEO. Appointing a new Sporting Director. Investing £250M of his own money for upgrading facilities. This is an ok start for me. Yes we would all prefer the Glazers fcuk off forever, but it's not happening right now. It will happen in the near future. I would be sick to my stomach if we ended up like, City, PSG and Newcastle. Too bad if that upsets you. We are better off than we were a year ago, for me.
Are we? From my understand the Glazers were in a soon to be financially untenable situation and we had as good an opportunity to we are likely to get to remove them. We haven’t, and have instead had a minority investor prop them up financially so they can remain. Essentially we have got Elliott or Caryle by another name. And it’s entirely possible there is not route to a full take over from Sir Jim.
 

hobbers

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Blanc is a good appointment. But Dougie is to Sporting Directors what Graham Potter is to management.
 

19Dan81

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We could have the best in class in every single department but if they all want different things the ultimate arbiter is the owners and that is the problem so many people seem to be glossing over. Need joined up thinking and direction from the owners > CEO > Sporting director and manager to have any chance at success. With the Glazers still in charge I don't see how having the best sporting people in positions below them changes much. They don't see us as a football club - they see us as a commercial entertainment brand.
 

Teja

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Blanc is a good appointment. But Dougie is to Sporting Directors what Graham Potter is to management.
Hey, any club other than Chelsea and Potter would've been good. He made the mistake of joining Chelsea when Boehly was playing FM.
 

Dec9003

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Not announced today again, this story is used to farm ‘breaking news’ no media outlets know what is happening with the sale.
 

TrueRed79

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Are we? From my understand the Glazers were in a soon to be financially untenable situation and we had as good an opportunity to we are likely to get to remove them. We haven’t, and have instead had a minority investor prop them up financially so they can remain. Essentially we have got Elliott or Caryle by another name. And it’s entirely possible there is not route to a full take over from Sir Jim.
There are obvious uncertainties. Maybe it wasn't as financially untenable for the Glazers as speculated? We are assuming that all SJR is doing is propping them up. That's one uncertainty, but unlikely in the long term. Once it's formally announced I'm sure there will be more clarification on that matter. I just cannot see a situation where the Glazers don't exit in the next five years. I don't like that, but at the same time I can't see someone like SJR waiting around beyond that timeframe for that to not happen. He must have guarantees that they will sell up the remaining part of their ownership within a strict timeframe. There's no way he is gifting £250M just because he can without guarantees that he will be the majority owner. It makes no sense for a businessman like him, especially at his age right now.
 

Rood

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Doesn’t mean that, the market rate won’t go much higher when buyers know they are only going to be able to sell 25% of their shares for $33. The current price is over inflated in preparation of the above happening.

If the current market price was $23 or above, any owners would be losing money if they take the 25% offer and sell off the rest (at the more realistic valuation of $15-18) once SJR completes his minority purchase.
This does make some sense - although there is still the question mark over what exactly the realistic valuation should be, I didn't expect such a big gap.

These shares floated at $14 a decade ago, surely worth significantly more today.
 

Rojofiam

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Not announced today again, this story is used to farm ‘breaking news’ no media outlets know what is happening with the sale.
It's gonna be next week, I think it's been pretty obvious judging by what reliable reports have said in this past month.
 

croadyman

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Nothing is nailed on - this is basically now the same any transfer window gossip as we end up getting linked to anyone and everyone

Plus there is the possibility of someone like Mitchell coming in as Head of Recruitment and someone else for DoF or Sporting Director or whatever
I would like to see that happen,however seems to be zero noise Utd want to appoint both.

Looks to me that some posters in here just see everything being said as pure PR and have no interest in giving Ratcliffe a chance. Yes I have reservations about the complexity of this deal but still willing to at least listen before writing it off completely.

Anti Ratcliffe posters won't want to hear this but he isn't gonna talk about getting them out in 3-4 years just after walking through the doors. However IF he doesn't show intention to do it after being here for a period of time then I will lose optimism of what he's trying to do.
 
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Son

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Have you ever looked at how much the UAE & Saudi Funds are worth? Add a 0 to Jim's net worth and multiply by 2.5.

Also Jim's net worth includes his INEOS stake which isn't a liquid asset. There are all kinds of restrictions on accessing that wealth and utilizing it.
It barely matters if you are as rich as Jim is compared to the state owned model once stuff is paid for within a few years hopefully.

City’s owners spent a few billion on City certainly a lot less than what Jim will probs spend here and you are calling him broke. States spend within reason. There is a limit.

Nobody is burning 30bn for example on one single team even if you’re worth 1 trillion. It would be laughable.

States have thousands of investments so the extra 0’s are obviously spread out across them. Sports is just a part of the portfolio and one team they own is an even smaller part.
 

ayushreddevil9

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Have you ever looked at how much the UAE & Saudi Funds are worth? Add a 0 to Jim's net worth and multiply by 2.5.

Also Jim's net worth includes his INEOS stake which isn't a liquid asset. There are all kinds of restrictions on accessing that wealth and utilizing it.
Isn't adding zero to Jim's net worth and multiply by 2.5 essentially multiplying Jim's net worth by 2.5?
 

OleGunnar20

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No oil fuelled, sports washing buyout. Glazers power diluted. Sacked an unqualified CEO. Appointing a more than qualified CEO. Appointing a new Sporting Director. Investing £250M of his own money for upgrading facilities. This is an ok start for me. Yes we would all prefer the Glazers fcuk off forever, but it's not happening right now. It will happen in the near future. I would be sick to my stomach if we ended up like, City, PSG and Newcastle. Too bad if that upsets you. We are better off than we were a year ago, for me.
Agreed. Not ideal, but it's one hell of a step in the right direction for me, and not drenched in Oil money.

Decent.
 

Litch

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No oil fuelled, sports washing buyout. Glazers power diluted. Sacked an unqualified CEO. Appointing a more than qualified CEO. Appointing a new Sporting Director. Investing £250M of his own money for upgrading facilities. This is an ok start for me. Yes we would all prefer the Glazers fcuk off forever, but it's not happening right now. It will happen in the near future. I would be sick to my stomach if we ended up like, City, PSG and Newcastle. Too bad if that upsets you. We are better off than we were a year ago, for me.
Agree.
 

AFC NimbleThumb

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No oil fuelled, sports washing buyout. Glazers power diluted. Sacked an unqualified CEO. Appointing a more than qualified CEO. Appointing a new Sporting Director. Investing £250M of his own money for upgrading facilities. This is an ok start for me. Yes we would all prefer the Glazers fcuk off forever, but it's not happening right now. It will happen in the near future. I would be sick to my stomach if we ended up like, City, PSG and Newcastle. Too bad if that upsets you. We are better off than we were a year ago, for me.
Setting the bar low has always been a great way to judge things I suppose.
 

Marcus

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Things are certainly looking up off the field. Time to play decent football and get good results on it.
 
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No oil fuelled, sports washing buyout. Glazers power diluted. Sacked an unqualified CEO. Appointing a more than qualified CEO. Appointing a new Sporting Director. Investing £250M of his own money for upgrading facilities. This is an ok start for me. Yes we would all prefer the Glazers fcuk off forever, but it's not happening right now. It will happen in the near future. I would be sick to my stomach if we ended up like, City, PSG and Newcastle. Too bad if that upsets you. We are better off than we were a year ago, for me.
Yup.

Anything was better than being part of the state ownership nonsense that has, in all honesty ruined much of my love of the game and brought it’s integrity into serious disrepute.
We’re certainly in a much better position with this, the Glazers have for far too long employed people in positions they simply are not qualified for and cannot seem to shake the idea that the SAF way of huge managerial control over everything is the best way.

The fans/posters that can’t see the positives are the same fans and posters that would’ve been equally as negative even with a full takeover from Ineos. This is because many of them clearly only see a future where state run clubs can be successful, and that is more important to them.
I totally understand that stance, but it’s just not where I am, and my hope is that City get spanked now by the Premier League and something is finally done about the nonsense of state ownership, and maybe, just maybe, some integrity can be brought back into the sport. Because the alternative is that three or four clubs worldwide will be owned by bottomless pits of state oil money, and there is no question this will only lead to absolute domination.
 
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Chumpsbechumps

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I was over in Manchester with my sons team a few weeks ago. As part of the excursion we did a tour of Etihad and went to the bournmouth game.

I have to say I wasn’t looking forward to it but the tour was really good. The guide was super to be fair to him and was able to handle any stick really positivekh(mostly United and Liverpool fans and only 1 City fan in the group).

Think he said he was a retired cosch and was asked back to do the tours. But some of the things he said stuck out, including how City meticulously try’s to give their team every advantage in every possible department. I’ve always thought this was part of Uniteds problem.

Looks like SJR is doing at least some of the stuff I’ve left we needed. He’s doing an overhaul and looking for some of the best in class in all departments. That’s pretty much what City and Chelsea (Roman) dirty money owners did and it’s no coincidence the success they had.

I think the Glazers arrogance (put Woodward etc) has led them to just think they can throw the clubs money at the problem. I’d be interested to know if Malcom Glazer had of not died would he have sacked Woodward much sooner. He was the businessman, his kids just inherited the club.

Regardless I think anything that takes control away from the glazer kids and gives a proper businessman an opportunity to run it well, is a good thing. Whether SJR is a fan or looking to make money , I think the motivation for on field success is more then that of our previous owners and gives us a better chance of seeing success. He’s even put a few quid into the club which is more then the current leech owners.
 

AFC NimbleThumb

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Yup.

Anything was better than being part of the state ownership nonsense that has, in all honesty ruined much of my love of the game and brought it’s integrity into serious disrepute.
We’re certainly in a much better position with this, the Glazers have for far too long employed people in positions they simply are not qualified for and cannot seem to shake the idea that the SAF way of huge managerial control over everything is the best way.

The fans/posters that can’t see the positives are the same fans and posters that would’ve been equally as negative even with a full takeover from Ineos. This is because many of them clearly only see a future where state run clubs can be successful, and that is more important to them.
I totally understand that stance, but it’s just not where I am, and my hope is that City get spanked now by the Premier League and something is finally done about the nonsense of state ownership, and maybe, just maybe, some integrity can be brought back into the sport. Because the alternative is that three or four clubs worldwide will be owned by bottomless pits of state oil money, and there is no question this will only lead to absolute domination.
I can categorically say you’re talking out your arse here. We already spend more than 99.9% of the footballing world, this Ineos deal isn’t some poverty play.

Why is it that with such a great deal on the table you & countless other posters can’t talk about it without creating a fictitious group of fans to be morally superior to.

I don’t see the positives in this deal. I was never ‘pro-Qatar’. There are more than 2 sides here.

The Qatar deal is gone yet a large number of posters talking up this SJR deal can only do so with ‘it’s better than state ownership’ which in itself doesn’t make it a good deal.

This fanbase truly do hate each other.
 

sglowrider

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I can categorically say you’re talking out your arse here. We already spend more than 99.9% of the footballing world, this Ineos deal isn’t some poverty play.

Why is it that with such a great deal on the table you & countless other posters can’t talk about it without creating a fictitious group of fans to be morally superior to.

I don’t see the positives in this deal. I was never ‘pro-Qatar’. There are more than 2 sides here.

The Qatar deal is gone yet a large number of posters talking up this SJR deal can only do so with ‘it’s better than state ownership’ which in itself doesn’t make it a good deal.

This fanbase truly do hate each other.
Truth!

It's either very naive or desperate thinking on their part.
 

Plant0x84

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Anti Ratcliffe posters won't want to hear this but he isn't gonna talk about getting them out in 3-4 years just after walking through the doors. However IF he doesn't show intention to do it after being here for a period of time then I will lose optimism of what he's trying to do.
As I understand it, he wanted legally enforceable options agreed now to buy enough to give INEOS the majority share and total control of the club asap. I think that will be within 12-24 months.
The bit that might take a few years to achieve is the stated end goal of eventual 100% ownership and taking the club private again.
Fingers crossed this minority agreement is a path forward to Glazer free Utopia!
 

Laurencio

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As I understand it, he wanted legally enforceable options agreed now to buy enough to give INEOS the majority share and total control of the club asap. I think that will be within 12-24 months.
The bit that might take a few years to achieve is the stated end goal of eventual 100% ownership and taking the club private again.
Fingers crossed this minority agreement is a path forward to Glazer free Utopia!
Sounds reasonable. I think the Glazers will hang around in some capacity until after the WC in 2026 though, that is what they are reportedly waiting for, but maybe as minority owners from the end of 2024 in some capacity.
 

Lastwolf

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This does make some sense - although there is still the question mark over what exactly the realistic valuation should be, I didn't expect such a big gap.

These shares floated at $14 a decade ago, surely worth significantly more today.
Not really before the sale they were trading at around $13
 
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