Because DDG is bottom percentile. Raya is undoubtedly an upgrade. For his price he is a very safe bet.
I would much rather we improve by 10-15% on DDG than wait for the illusive PERFECT keeper to become available and us being able to buy them.
David Raya
- Thread starter Samid
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I would much rather we improve by 10-15% on DDG than wait for the illusive PERFECT keeper to become available and us being able to buy them.
BS De Gea is one of the best, stats tell only part of the story. Raya is not an upgrade, he is NOT composed with the ball at his feet. His shot stopping is below De Gea‘s.
How is De Gea one of the best? He used to be, many seasons ago, when shot-stopping was the single most important factor. He is just not a modern keeper and is average at best at his best quality and absolutely terrible in all other important modern keeper dimensions.
How is De Gea better? In what dimension?
De Gea didn't decline because he isn't a modern goalkeeper. He just declined in the attributes he was elite in. His biggest weakness isn't his passing from the back, but is how he deals with high balls which has always been an issue.How is De Gea one of the best? He used to be, many seasons ago, when shot-stopping was the single most important factor. He is just not a modern keeper and is average at best at his best quality and absolutely terrible in all other important modern keeper dimensions.
How is De Gea better? In what dimension?
You can't really answer this question when watching football, unless we're talking about some extreme situations / players.
The problem with human is you'll always be comparing current De Gea to the players you saw currently / you remembered. And current De Gea is probably close to his top level. It really doesn't get much better than now, but if you want to compare average over the course of the season, this is where stats prove useful.
So for shot stopping he is somewhere in the middle, although recently he's been great. And that is reflected in the same stats/parameters.
If Raya has been doing very well on some stats then over the course of the season he has been at least on Dave level. It might be different to what De Gea is now but that is not the point, the form/luck will fluctuate.
I always suggest to use xG parameters to group players in 3 buckets:
Significantly below average - poor players or bad luck (we can't talk about bad luck after 20 games played, but this will play a role for GKs who played less games)
Average - they are OK, sometimes good same times worse but it's difficult to prove their super ability against those stats
Above average - players very good at this particular aspect or very lucky (we can talk about shotstopping, but also converting chances - and Haaland & Rashford are way above average in this).
Over the course of last 5 seasons, De Gea was twice in the above average group (17/18 he was killing it, last season he was top 3), and 3 seasons when he was average. This season he basically needs to continue current form to end in above average group, what I think is unlikely but possible.
All in all its just difficult to prove De Gea is amazing shot stopper. At the same time it is very easy to prove he is below average in almost every other aspect of goalkeeping. I also can't imagine anyone is watching him play and thinking he is good enough on the ball. Sweeping I think is more of tactics used by ETH, and claiming crosses is bottom of the pack.
There are a few goalkeepers who are above average in all key areas, I don't know if they are ready to step up but it's not like there are no options to choose from.
We aren't getting Alison who is comfortably the best gk in the league, but that should not stop us in going after the GK that can be that level in a year or two. De Gea isn't that guy (also because of age).
I'd say in EPL alone you can probably name 2-3 goalkeepers who are available (not playing for big clubs) and significantly better than De Gea. And Raya is most certainly in that group.
It's not a question if there are better GKs available than De Gea, but if they are good enough for us long term. Only the summer will give us answer (assuming we will trust Ten Hag on the decision).
Raya might not be the answer but it's a quite safe bet.
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He declined in his ability and he declined in his standing as a top goalkeeper. The former because his shot-stopping is no longer elite, and the latter because modern goalkeepers are expected to be able to deal with high balls, have a commanding presence in the box, as well as help in build up and be able to pass to his team-mates under pressure.
Goalkeepers always have been expected to deal with high balls. This isn't a modern goalkeeper thing. This was one of your 2 basics 30 years ago - shot stopping, and dealing with high balls. De Gea only ever had the shot stopping aspect, but it was so elite during his peak that it outweighed his weakness which was always notable.
His passing out from the back has improved to an average level this season at least. It's not a huge deal. Courtois was an elite goalkeeper because of his shot stopping and his aerial play. Not being a ball playing keeper doesn't mean you can't make it as an elite keeper today. You can still be an elite keeper as a traditional goalkeeper. You adapt to your goalkeeper more than before, but it doesn't mean someone like Courtois isn't an elite goalkeeper.
Again bollocks.
It's no different to anywhere else or any other position. It's all about finding the right player that fits the team, VDS was a perfect fit as was Schmeichel in his day.
Barthez, Howard, Foster etc. All very good keepers who had excellent careers but they just didn't fit the team requirements or suit the style of play. It wasn't about ability they had the ability to be premier league and international goalkeepers. It was their style of play that made them unsuitable. Barthez was a lunatic and Foster and Howard (like DDG) just didn't like being away from their goal.
Raya is one of the best performing keepers in the league, was in the Spain squad ahead of you know who, as were 4 or 5 other keepers.
I agree on the first paragraph, completely.
On the second one, I guess it depends average to what. To his PL peers, not really. He is below average in everything but launched (long) goal kicks, which is a function of his inability to pass.
Stats like those are a bit useless without context for goalkeepers. A lot is just instruction based.I agree on the first paragraph, completely.
On the second one, I guess it depends average to what. To his PL peers, not really. He is below average in everything but launched (long) goal kicks, which is a function of his inability to pass.
The only analytics worth looking at for goalkeepers that I've seen is John Harrison on twitter. But he hasn't updated de geas stats in a while (or maybe made it private on his site). This was from just before the world Cup, so its improved since then, but the idea stands. His passing has improved to an average level, but his cross claiming is by far his weakest aspect. His shot stopping has improved considerably since this point, not sure what it'd be now.
Here are Harrison's tweet from December:
It doesn't cover passing but it shows that De Gea is below average and mostly costing us.
The 2 tweets cover the same thing as the premier league was off for a month. It includes his distribution in the bottom, but it's just a total table. The table I posted is the breakdown with each point, showing his distribution is an average PL level but other aspects dragged him down. Also de Gea's first 2 games drag him down a lot, take those out and he is mid table basically.
I'm just saying that de Gea not being a modern goalkeeper isn't what makes him not good enough for us long term. He could be a great goalkeeper if he was still as good a shot stopper as he used to be and if he was elite in the air. His worst attribute are his high balls. Look at Nick Pope for example. Not a ball playing goalkeeper but he is class and it shows in the stats every year. Guys like Kepa or Pickford are really just having 1 season wonders and normally aren't so high up
I'm very curious what his models show now and hope he releases an update soon.
Sanchez has just been dropped for Jason Steele
Foster played well for a while - and then completely lost confidence. After the City-game where we won 4-3, he was done. It's not just a theory. He admitted it himself that he couldn't cope with Old Trafford, and that he preferred to play for smaller clubs.
Barthez had periods where he was awful and gave easy goals away (like that Arsenal-game where he gifted them 2 goals in a 3-1 defeat) - it has nothing to do with requirements or style of play. It had to do with Ferguson and our defender not trusting him. He had so many errors and his confidence never really recovered - especially in his second season at United, in the end Fergusons patience ran out.
As for Howard - he had one season where he was good (not great) - and after that he was gone. Once again, it had nothing to do with requirements or style of play - he just wasn't good enough.
Yes they all had excellent careers - but none of them ever played for a big club again after leaving United, now why is that ? Why did Howard play for Everton for 10 years instead of going to a much better club - Foster played for average P.L clubs his entire career after leaving United- why is that ?
VDS and Schmeichel were perfect fits - because they combined extreme qualities with extreme mental strength. Schmeichel could make the biggest mistakes in the world - and blamed the defenders - it was his defence mechanism. VDS hardly ever made mistakes - and if he did, he was just as secure 10 seconds later. That's what made them truly great goalkeepers. There is nothing to indicate that Raya has that quality - because he has never been tested in that environment. You say it's bollocks - that is the biggest bollocks of all. If you make a mistake at Brentford - it will hardly be mentioned. If you make a mistake like DDG made against Brentford you will have the press crucifying you and the fans wanting him gone.
That is part of playing for a big football club - it's not bollocks. It's a fact.
It's astounding how many people underestimate the sheer mental resilience it takes to be United's #1.
De Gea could have a decent game, make some important saves, and his performance thread will still have people crucifying him for something. That thread itself is evidence of just how much scrutiny is placed on being United's #1.
Yeah. I don't think spending 50-70m on Raya would improve us as much as spending that amount on other much needed positions.
And whenever limited time I watched Raya, never crossed my mind that "oh... this guy will take us places" much more than DDG (or even better at all).
Yeah but here's the thing, none of what you said has anything to do with what I quoted and what you had quoted prior. The original poster stated the job for a goalkeeper for United is very different than for 99% of other clubs. You brought up the examples of Schmeichel and VDS as they were brought from Brondby and Fulham respectively, neglecting to mention what else they had done in their careers. Barthez, the example you use, shows even a world cup winner was unable to deal with the league and pressure of being the United #1.
So the only three good goalkeepers United has had since 1991, have all played for big clubs or won big silverware prior to joining the club. Raya has done neither of those, so its entirely reasonable to question whether he has the wherewithal to play for United or not.
How can anyone not want raya at £15m after watching the game today needs their heads examining
There were lots of factors / things that went wrong today, and our inability to play out from the back was one.
De Gea’s distribution repeatedly put us on the back foot so we really need to evaluate this area of the team.
I feel like this year Ten Hag is making do with the tools he has, but I expect next season we’ll see some bigger changes and the GK position should be one. Raya at 15m seems very logical, although I expect this to end up being more like 25-30m in reality.
Because as per the youtube analysis on the previous page, he isnt good enough for a top six side.
Would be a great backup
back up to the keep who can’t claim a cross haha
Indeed. Claiming a few odd crosses doesnt make him a better keeper
Why not go out and get Costa/Maignan to replace him,keeping buying competition for him and will never get dislodged from number 1
Not sure about Maignan, but Costa probably best fits what I imagine EtH wants in a keeper and is still very young.
He signed a new contract with a much higher release clause. Would probably be close to a world record for a GK now. Think it was about €50m before this new one.
That's why we're probably looking at budget options like Raya.
A new goalkeeper is needed but Raya isn't the answer. In controlled build up situations his short passing is pretty bad although he is good at launching counters from kicking out of his hands and can generally hit good passes over long distances. I still think ten Hag wants a goalkeeper that can do both though.
Above average shot stopper.
Good long distribution.
Ok coming off his line.
Below average 1 v 1 and short passing.
= Not the answer.
Above average shot stopper.
Good long distribution.
Ok coming off his line.
Below average 1 v 1 and short passing.
= Not the answer.
That's why we probably give him one year them once other more urgent areas are addressed we go big for Maignan next summer
It's not quite as simple as just replacing or keeping De Gea, as even if we keep De Gea we would still need to sign a new goalkeeper this summer with Butland's loan finishing and Heaton out of contract.
So if De Gea signs a new contract but we still have to sign a second choice goalkeeper anyway, would it not be worth spending the little bit more to bring in someone like Raya who is a better stylistic fit and is at least good enough to genuinely compete with De Gea?
So if De Gea signs a new contract but we still have to sign a second choice goalkeeper anyway, would it not be worth spending the little bit more to bring in someone like Raya who is a better stylistic fit and is at least good enough to genuinely compete with De Gea?
Been watching the Everton vs Brentford game. His footwork is pure gold. His range is wonderful.
Could be our man
Absolutely no one will pay 40 million euros for a goalkeeper with one year left on the contract.
I feel this is an absolute myth of a 'ball playing keeper' his pass accuracy is worse than DDG
Proper bang average keeper. De Gea would love it if we signed him because he'd still be #1
Proper bang average keeper. De Gea would love it if we signed him because he'd still be #1
Not good enough for us. An upgrade on De Gea on the ball but a downgrade in every other respect.
Yes. How about Flekken? How does he compare? Is he better than Raya?
Coming for crosses? Controlling his box? Sweeping?
I‘m pretty sure if we got Raya, he‘d get loads of criticism in no time from the same gents that are bashing De Gea.
Raya has some weaknesses as well. Overall, I prefer De Gea.
Wonder how many times you’ve watched him play live to come to this conclusion of being bang average and a myth of a ball playing keeper - for what it’s worth you’re wrong on both counts.