France's Presidential elections April 2022

[Paul the Wolf]

I hope you're right, but you are sounding very optimistic. Macron hasn't polled over 60 since March 20th. The trend is favouring MLP.

And these polls are suggesting that 24 % of Melenchon's voters would vote for Le Pen in the second round, compared to only 7 % of them in 2017. And among Pecresse's votes, it's almost a 50/50 share.

Five years ago it was touch and go whether Macron would even make the second round.
Mélenchon hates Le Pen so his followers will do as he says.

The added factor has yet to played. After the first round which I assume Macron and Le Pen will be face to face on a TV debate. Macron will wipe the floor with Le Pen. She is very dim and once again will be shown that she's not fit for office. She was humiliated last time.

I still have faith that the French electorate are not as gullible as the British.
Anyone but Macron will be a disaster for France. Fingers crossed.

 

[SirAF]

Five years ago it was touch and go whether Macron would even make the second round.
Mélenchon hates Le Pen so his followers will do as he says.

The added factor has yet to played. After the first round which I assume Macron and Le Pen will be face to face on a TV debate. Macron will wipe the floor with Le Pen. She is very dim and once again will be shown that she's not fit for office. She was humiliated last time.

I still have faith that the French electorate are not as gullible as the British.
Anyone but Macron will be a disaster for France. Fingers crossed.

Let’s bloody hope you are right, I’m bricking this!

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Let’s bloody hope you are right, I’m bricking this!

I hope I'm right as well. One fat blond-haired lying populist fascist airhead is more than enough for Western Europe.

I'm very confident.

 

[Pintu]

Exit poll according to Belgian "La Libre" Macron and far-right candidate Le Pen tied at 24% and heading to the runoff.

Far-left candidate Melenchon gets 19 % and is eliminated tonight.

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[DavidDeSchmikes]

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[Classical Mechanic]

Five years ago it was touch and go whether Macron would even make the second round.
Mélenchon hates Le Pen so his followers will do as he says.

The added factor has yet to played. After the first round which I assume Macron and Le Pen will be face to face on a TV debate. Macron will wipe the floor with Le Pen. She is very dim and once again will be shown that she's not fit for office. She was humiliated last time.

I still have faith that the French electorate are not as gullible as the British.
Anyone but Macron will be a disaster for France. Fingers crossed.

It seems to be an inversion of British politics where the older cohorts of voters keep the UK on the right. Yougov has 56% of the 18-24 cohort in France supporting Le Pen! I believe there was a similar dynamic in Poland with a lot of youth support for the right wing populist party.

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[Pintu]

It seems to be an inversion of British politics where the older cohorts of voters keep the UK on the right. Yougov has 56% of the 18-24 cohort in France supporting Le Pen! I believe there was a similar dynamic in Poland with a lot of youth support for the right wing populist party.

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[Classical Mechanic]

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Thanks. The Yougov poll was asking who they'd choose in a run off between Macron and Le Pen I should've mentioned.

 

[nimic]

Exit poll according to Belgian "La Libre" Macron and far-right candidate Le Pen tied at 24% and heading to the runoff.

Far-left candidate Melenchon gets 19 % and is eliminated tonight.

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Actual exit poll? I thought they didn't allow any exit polls until voting has stopped?

 

[Paul the Wolf]

It seems to be an inversion of British politics where the older cohorts of voters keep the UK on the right. Yougov has 56% of the 18-24 cohort in France supporting Le Pen! I believe there was a similar dynamic in Poland with a lot of youth support for the right wing populist party.

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I would say the young favour Mélenchon (In the UK and France both seem to like 70+ year old Marxists) and hate the Tories (Pécresse). The difference between the UK and France would be the influence. Here the influence would mainly come from social media whereas in the UK the right wing press play a big part and I doubt youngsters read it. In the second round if Mélenchon says vote Macron, most of his followers will.

 

[Pintu]

Thanks. The Yougov poll was asking who they'd choose in a run off between Macron and Le Pen I should've mentioned.

Well if the 18-24 got to decide then Le Pen wouldn't make it to the second round.

 

[Sweet Square]

Actual exit poll? I thought they didn't allow any exit polls until voting has stopped?

It looks like to have been leaked.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Voting has already finished apart from the big cities which close an hour later in 22 minutes

 

[Pintu]

Actual exit poll? I thought they didn't allow any exit polls until voting has stopped?

I couldn't answer that. What's not allowed is publishing results in France. But the Press in Belguim doesn't care about that.

But I know that nowadays Polling institutes work with more developed methods. They use data science and machine learning, with specially developed algorithms. You can feed the algorithm actual results from representative polling stations (the ones that close early and already started counting) and are deemed representative. Then the algorithm will make accurate projections based on all the variables.

Whatever result we are given at 20h I think we should trust completely. If this is the same I don't know.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Voici tous les résultats selon une estimation Ifop Fiducial pour TF1 et LCI:

• Emmanuel Macron : 28,6%
• Marine Le Pen : 23,9%
• Jean-Luc Mélenchon : 20,1%
• Eric Zemmour : 7,0%
• Yannick Jadot : 4,8%
• Valérie Pécresse : 4,7%
• Jean Lassalle : 3,3%
• Fabien Roussel : 2,5%
• Anne Hidalgo : 2,0%
• Nicolas Dupont-Aignan : 1,8%

 

[JPRouve]

Voici tous les résultats selon une estimation Ifop Fiducial pour TF1 et LCI:

• Emmanuel Macron : 28,6%
• Marine Le Pen : 23,9%
• Jean-Luc Mélenchon : 20,1%
• Eric Zemmour : 7,0%
• Yannick Jadot : 4,8%
• Valérie Pécresse : 4,7%
• Jean Lassalle : 3,3%
• Fabien Roussel : 2,5%
• Anne Hidalgo : 2,0%
• Nicolas Dupont-Aignan : 1,8%

I didn't expect that, this isn't even the big cities that just closed 2 minutes ago.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

I didn't expect that, this isn't even the big cities that just closed 2 minutes ago.

Looking good so far.

 

[Pintu]

I didn't expect that, this isn't even the big cities that just closed 2 minutes ago.

If it is this method, then the big cities are already included in the projection.

I couldn't answer that. What's not allowed is publishing results in France. But the Press in Belguim doesn't care about that.

But I know that nowadays Polling institutes work with more developed methods. They use data science and machine learning, with specially developed algorithms. You can feed the algorithm actual results from representative polling stations (the ones that close early and already started counting) and are deemed representative. Then the algorithm will make accurate projections based on all the variables.

Whatever result we are given at 20h I think we should trust completely. If this is the same I don't know.

 

[JPRouve]

Looking good so far.

Especially since LR and the PS probably died a brutal death.

 

[2cents]

Would I be correct to assume that’s a lot more positive for Macron than was expected?

 

[JPRouve]

Would I be correct to assume that’s a lot more positive for Macron than was expected?

Not a lot more but it's on the better than expected side of things. Almost 30% for a candidate in France and the current president, it's probably one of the best exit polls in many elections.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Especially since LR and the PS probably died a brutal death.

Very true. Today was the first time I could vote in a Presidential election as a French Citizen!

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Hidalgo says vote for Macron in the second round

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Result up for my village (small village!)

Marine LE PEN	24,18%	103
Emmanuel MACRON	18,78%	80
Jean-Luc MÉLENCHON	17,61%	75
Valérie PÉCRESSE	11,50%	49
Jean LASSALLE	10,80%	46
Éric ZEMMOUR	5,87%	25
Fabien ROUSSEL	3,76%	16
Yannick JADOT	1,88%	8
Nathalie ARTHAUD	1,64%	7
Anne HIDALGO	1,64%	7
Nicolas DUPONT-AIGNAN	1,41%	6
Philippe POUTOU	0,94%	4

 

[Pintu]

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The LR fall is brutal...

 

[Pintu]

Hidalgo says vote for Macron in the second round

Green candidate says the same thing now.

 

[Rajma]

Result up for my village (small village!)

Marine LE PEN	24,18%	103
Emmanuel MACRON	18,78%	80
Jean-Luc MÉLENCHON	17,61%	75
Valérie PÉCRESSE	11,50%	49
Jean LASSALLE	10,80%	46
Éric ZEMMOUR	5,87%	25
Fabien ROUSSEL	3,76%	16
Yannick JADOT	1,88%	8
Nathalie ARTHAUD	1,64%	7
Anne HIDALGO	1,64%	7
Nicolas DUPONT-AIGNAN	1,41%	6
Philippe POUTOU	0,94%	4

Move quick!

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Pécresse urges her voters to vote Macron in second round

 

[coolredwine]

Pécresse urges her voters to vote Macron in second round

the usual suspects have already thrown their support behind Macron / against Le Pen.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Move quick!

The mayor's a racist xenophobe but he thinks someone from the next village is an immigrant. He's retiring soon.

 

[coolredwine]

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The LR fall is brutal...

They really should have convinced Phillipe to run. Definitely more popular than Pecresse.

 

[coolredwine]

genuinely surprised at melenchon gathering 20% of the first round votes. That's more than 2017 if I am not wrong. His guys now just need to turn up next Sunday.

 

[JPRouve]

The mayor's a racist xenophobe but he thinks someone from the next village is an immigrant. He's retiring soon.

To be fair it's typical. The nearest village or town is always populated by savages that can't be trusted.

 

[Charlie Foley]

Very true. Today was the first time I could vote in a Presidential election as a French Citizen!

Félicitations!

 

[calodo2003]

Result up for my village (small village!)

Marine LE PEN	24,18%	103
Emmanuel MACRON	18,78%	80
Jean-Luc MÉLENCHON	17,61%	75
Valérie PÉCRESSE	11,50%	49
Jean LASSALLE	10,80%	46
Éric ZEMMOUR	5,87%	25
Fabien ROUSSEL	3,76%	16
Yannick JADOT	1,88%	8
Nathalie ARTHAUD	1,64%	7
Anne HIDALGO	1,64%	7
Nicolas DUPONT-AIGNAN	1,41%	6
Philippe POUTOU	0,94%	4

Fair result? Does it capture the actuality of the village?

 

[Charlie Foley]

To be fair it's typical. The nearest village or town is always populated by savages that can't be trusted.

For a second I read this literally, in that you knew where Paul lived and knew the nearest village was actually a shithole

 

[JPRouve]

For a second I read this literally, in that you knew where Paul lived and knew the nearest village was actually a shithole

It's a french rural reality, you are a shithole from the eyes of your neighbour. And the weirdest thing is that you are a local if you are a regular at the local Bar PMU or market regardless of your origin.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Félicitations!

Merci beaucoup!

Fair result? Does it capture the actuality of the village?

Macron just edged it last time in the first round and this area is always a bit rebellious but there are only 431 voters so not a great indication nationwide

 

[moses]

It's a french rural reality, you are a shithole from the eyes of your neighbour. And the weirdest thing is that you are a local if you are a regular at the local Bar PMU or market regardless of your origin.

It's a rural reality I think. The parochialism here is insane too.

 

[Pintu]

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3 left candidates + Tory Pecresse all for Macron.

So far only Zemmour (7%) supported Le Pen. I suspected Dupont-Aignan will do the same.

Melenchon speaking now, his lieutenants already said on tv ("Not a single voice can go to the far right")