France's Presidential elections April 2022

Mb194dc

Full Member
Joined
Dec 8, 2015
Messages
4,673
Supports
Chelsea
There are lots of ifs and buts. Most of the left candidates didn't want an alliance between them. If Zemmour hadn't presented himself Le Pen would have been further ahead of Mélenchon. Not that long ago Mélenchon was fifth in the polls but with Zemmour and Pécresse having disastrous campaigns Mélenchon rose up and then announced 'retirement at 60' to boost himself at the end. Not forgetting Hidalgo (Labour) -if she'd have attracted any bigger share of the vote, Mélenchon would have been nowhere near Macron and LePen
Most likely the polls were always wrong by at least 5% or even more against him, there was no huge surge in the space of a couple of weeks. Yes it's true Zemmour probably split Le Pens vote to some degree.

Melenchon dominated younger age groups I think and the cities, which makes me think if he backs a younger successor with the same policy platform they'll have a very good chance next time to get to the run off, unless something changes drastically economically for the better. The PS are basically finished, be interesting to see after missing out so narrowly if the French hard left becomes more united or not for next time.
 

JPRouve

can't stop thinking about balls - NOT deflategate
Scout
Joined
Jan 31, 2014
Messages
65,949
Location
France
Most likely the polls were always wrong by at least 5% or even more against him, there was no huge surge in the space of a couple of weeks. Yes it's true Zemmour probably split Le Pens vote to some degree.

Melenchon dominated younger age groups I think and the cities, which makes me think if he backs a younger successor with the same policy platform they'll have a very good chance next time to get to the run off, unless something changes drastically economically for the better. The PS are basically finished, be interesting to see after missing out so narrowly if the French hard left becomes more united or not for next time.
He doesn't have a policy platform, the all thing is built on his personality which is why the rest of the left isn't behind him.
 

MoskvaRed

Full Member
Joined
Sep 24, 2013
Messages
5,232
Location
Not Moskva
I was watching the aftermath of the first round last night and the opinion poll for the second round was 54%-46% in favour of Macron. I was shocked to see such a narrow lead, even taking into account Macron’s unpopularity. In particular, as someone with deeply unpleasant memories of 2016, that struck me as very similar to the lead enjoyed by Remain in the run up to the Brexit referendum. Let’s hope we see some movement in the polling in the next few days and that there aren’t more silent right-wing xenophobes out there with a taste for Kremlin-funded populism.
 

Mb194dc

Full Member
Joined
Dec 8, 2015
Messages
4,673
Supports
Chelsea
He doesn't have a policy platform, the all thing is built on his personality which is why the rest of the left isn't behind him.
Higher minimum wage, money for students, lower retirement age, hiring loads of civil servants, that is a policy platform.

I think he'll be too old to stand fully next time, but I could see him getting someone else in.

Personally don't think the second round will be close at all, polls are wrong again, Le Pen has a ceiling due to her policies (spoken and not!) and she'll lose by more than last time!
 

JPRouve

can't stop thinking about balls - NOT deflategate
Scout
Joined
Jan 31, 2014
Messages
65,949
Location
France
Higher minimum wage, money for students, lower retirement age, hiring loads of civil servants, that is a policy platform.

I think he'll be too old to stand fully next time, but I could see him getting someone else in.

Personally don't think the second round will be close at all, polls are wrong again, Le Pen has a ceiling due to her policies and she'll lose by more than last time!
No, it's not. For two reasons first even if he was in a position to propose these things, there is no money to do it, they didn't even bother explaining or calculate anything. But most importantly the only concrete things that he proposes are to limit the government abilties and the 6th republic which isn't defined at all and could lead to anything, literally.

Mélenchon programme is a bit like the leave campaign.
 

RedDevilQuebecois

Full Member
Joined
May 27, 2021
Messages
8,172
I was watching the aftermath of the first round last night and the opinion poll for the second round was 54%-46% in favour of Macron. I was shocked to see such a narrow lead, even taking into account Macron’s unpopularity. In particular, as someone with deeply unpleasant memories of 2016, that struck me as very similar to the lead enjoyed by Remain in the run up to the Brexit referendum. Let’s hope we see some movement in the polling in the next few days and that there aren’t more silent right-wing xenophobes out there with a taste for Kremlin-funded populism.
I was thinking the same thing as well. Considering how everything related to Kremlin-funded populism can be considered criminal these days in the context of the Russian invasion, I was expecting the right to shift their votes onto other people. It's aready bad to see Orban and the pro-Kremlin guy win their respective elections in Hungary and Serbia, so having Le Pen going all the way would be the saddest joke of all. An 8-point margin is way too close for comfort.

Gotta say that Zemmour's results have been very poor for all the blah-blah that was made about him.
 

Pintu

Full Member
Joined
Apr 12, 2015
Messages
4,196
Location
Sweden

The fascist candidate Zemmour could have won it in one round if only French residents of Israel and Russia could vote.

For the French in Lebanon it is Macron who wins it.
 

Pintu

Full Member
Joined
Apr 12, 2015
Messages
4,196
Location
Sweden
Zemmour's Jewish so not surprised in Israel.
He is a very special kind of Jewish though.

https://www.france24.com/en/20141012-french-bestseller-vichy-save-jews-zemmour


French bestseller says Vichy regime ‘tried to save French Jews’


For Paxton, the fact that a quarter of Jews living in France during the war perished was part of a wide-ranging and deliberately anti-Semitic collaborationist policy.

But Zemmour leaps to the Vichy leadership’s defence – insisting that the surviving 75 percent were “saved by the strategy of [Vichy leader] Philippe Pétain and [wartime Prime Minister] Pierre Laval in the face of German demands”.

Specifically, he says they deliberately “sacrificed foreign Jews (living in France) in order to save French Jews”.

While stopping short of praising Pétain and Laval, Zemmour wants his readers to understand that there is a “difference between morality...and political efficiency” when making their judgement on the Vichy regime.

Zemmour’s arguments are ‘absurd’

Contacted by Rue89’s Pascal Riché, Paxton hit back at Zemmour’s “empty arguments”.

“It is absurd to argue that Vichy sought to protect French Jews,” he said. “Vichy’s anti-Jewish laws of 1940-1942 attacked all Jews living in France, including those with French nationality.


“Their removal from public service, their exclusion from universities, the ‘Aryanisation’ of their property, were targeted at all Jews, French or not.”

Paxton goes on to say that the removal of foreign Jews first was a German decision, and that France would have understood very clearly that “we’ll take the foreign ones first, but understand that we will take the French Jews later on”.

“There is no reason at all for me to alter my conviction that Vichy committed terrible acts against all Jews, including those of French nationality.”

Of the approximately 330,000 Jews living in France at the beginning of the war (around 150,000 were French citizens, the others refugees), some 75,000 were deported –French and foreign alike – to the east. The vast majority did not survive the camps.
 

JPRouve

can't stop thinking about balls - NOT deflategate
Scout
Joined
Jan 31, 2014
Messages
65,949
Location
France

The fascist candidate Zemmour could have won it in one round if only French residents of Israel and Russia could vote.

For the French in Lebanon it is Macron who wins it.
They can vote and did.
 

JPRouve

can't stop thinking about balls - NOT deflategate
Scout
Joined
Jan 31, 2014
Messages
65,949
Location
France
Yes, if they were the only ones to vote... Any idea why Zemour is first in Russia, I'd have expected Le Pen to win there?
I don't know, I would need to have a better idea about what demographic we are talking about, in particular age and religion.
 

Pintu

Full Member
Joined
Apr 12, 2015
Messages
4,196
Location
Sweden
But you can't lock me in the toilet!"

Earlier, an activist who came to denounce Marine Le Pen's complacency towards Vladimir Poutine was dragged away from the candidate's press conference



 

horsechoker

The Caf's Roy Keane.
Joined
Apr 16, 2015
Messages
52,440
Location
The stable
But you can't lock me in the toilet!"

Earlier, an activist who came to denounce Marine Le Pen's complacency towards Vladimir Poutine was dragged away from the candidate's press conference



Sounds tasty!
 

Paul the Wolf

Full Member
Joined
Apr 17, 2014
Messages
17,831
Location
France - can't win anything with Swedish turnips

WPMUFC

Full Member
Joined
Jul 9, 2013
Messages
9,659
Location
Australia
Yes, although the fraud investigation has been going on for years.

The more Le Pen talks the better it is for Macron. She makes Nadine Dorries look like an intellectual.
Le Pen and Macron are face to face on TV on Wednesday evening at 9pm French time - should be fun.
Christ... :lol:
 

maniak

Full Member
Joined
Aug 14, 2004
Messages
10,036
Location
Lisboa
Supports
Arsenal
Yes, although the fraud investigation has been going on for years.

The more Le Pen talks the better it is for Macron. She makes Nadine Dorries look like an intellectual.
Le Pen and Macron are face to face on TV on Wednesday evening at 9pm French time - should be fun.
Any way to watch it afterwards with subtitles?
 

Pintu

Full Member
Joined
Apr 12, 2015
Messages
4,196
Location
Sweden
Macron is increasing his lead constantly (13 points now).




This is how it looks. He has increased his lead in both the left(Mélenchon) and the conservative/Center-right(Pécresse) voters.

 

Pintu

Full Member
Joined
Apr 12, 2015
Messages
4,196
Location
Sweden
Counterfeit Russian banknotes thrown in front of Marine Le Pen's HQ. An action to denounce the links between Le Pen and Russia. Immediate intervention by law enforcement.

:lol: :lol: :lol:

 

RedDevilQuebecois

Full Member
Joined
May 27, 2021
Messages
8,172
If someone wants to share a live streaming link so people can watch the debate in 3 hours or so, I'm all for it. TV5 will only show it tonight (Eastern time) and thus a few hours later.
 

Pintu

Full Member
Joined
Apr 12, 2015
Messages
4,196
Location
Sweden
Anyone know of any live commentary threads, for those of us who don't speak French? Twitter, newspapers (Guardian?), whatever.
It’s also on France24 English with Simultaneous translation.

 

RedDevilQuebecois

Full Member
Joined
May 27, 2021
Messages
8,172
Here it comes. Macron is eviscerating Le Pen on Russian money that she and her party received years ago.