Higuain to leave Real Madrid

[peterstorey]

Statistical Comparison
Below is a comparison of Suarez and other strikers this season, as well as his form last season.

Mins per goal Chance conversion Shooting accuracy​

Suarez 11/12 232 10% 44%​

Suarez 12/13 129 16% 45%​

Robin van Persie 111 24% 54%​

Michu 144 24% 47%​

Dzeko 99 25% 52%​

Walcott 135 26% 63%​

Ba (Newcastle) 128 19% 53%​

Whilst Suarez is the second top scorer in the Premier League his chance conversion is the worst out of the strikers assessed here.

 

[thepolice123]

Bottled many big chances whenever he plays in the El Clasicos. Lets hope he continues it over here.

 

[peterstorey]

As many as van Persie did in one CL game v Real - I don't think so.

 

[Sam]

Good signing for Arsenal.

Will certainly make there battle for 4th a bit easier.

 

[MoneyMay]

As many as van Persie did in one CL game v Real - I don't think so.

Oh, dear. Van Persie "bottled" one chance in the first CL game against Real Madrid. In the second game at home, he also "bottled" one chance. And chance in this context means big chance. Higuain "bottled" two/three great chances in the Super Cup earlier this season.

 

[Brwned]

People can give you the first two paragraphs, but most of the third paragraph is ignorance.

Heh, give it a rest mate. You're arguing against something I've not even said. Higuaín overall has been very good at Madrid but I think he's had just one "world class"/sensational/whatever you want to call it season. That's all I was saying. 09/10 was the one year where he was right up there with the best forwards in the world. The rest of the time he's been in and around the top 10, IMO. Last season was his only below-par season and Spanish posters in the newbies say that's down to a more Ronaldo-focussed setup this year which is why Özil, Benzema and Di María all (somewhat) struggled this year too. The other seasons he's generally been great, as I've said at the time...

Spoiler

Re: 08/09 season:

Higuain was the only consistent performer for them, IMO, I'd happily take him.

December 2009:

Been Madrid's best player since Sep 08' though, better than Aguero and better than Pato, and to be able to do that when you start both seasons on the bench is mightily impressive.


Could even go as far back as March 08' when he was playing off the right wing for most of the last two months and still scoring regularly - from 1st March until the end of the season he scored a goal every 78 minutes, better than a goal a game.

June 2011:

Top class
Messi
Villa
Rooney
Ronaldo
Eto' o
Drogba
Torres
Van Persie

Best of the rest
Tevez
Ibrahimovic
Higuain
Forlan
Berbatov

Very good, potentially excellent
M Gomez
Cavani
Benzema
Aguero
G Rossi

Potential
Hernandez
Pato
A Sanchez

Something like that.

Basically I think he's always been in that "best of the rest" group rather than being "top class" other than that one season where he was pretty much a one-man team for the last few months. It probably is unfair to criticise his mentality given the way he's been treated at Madrid and his tendency to turn it on in the last few months of the (league) season. The CL form really does leave some question marks though and even at his best a common criticism of Higuaín from Madrid fans is his tendency to disappear against top defences.

 

[The Taurean]

peterstore

Statistical Comparison
Below is a comparison of Suarez and other strikers this season, as well as his form last season.
Mins per goal Chance conversion Shooting accuracy
Suarez 11/12 232 10% 44%
Suarez 12/13 129 16% 45%
Robin van Persie 111 24% 54%
Michu 144 24% 47%
Dzeko 99 25% 52%
Walcott 135 26% 63%
Ba (Newcastle) 128 19% 53%
Whilst Suarez is the second top scorer in the Premier League his chance conversion is the worst out of the strikers assessed here.

Its certainly not a bad percentage, is it now? And now if you are to consider all the top 10 strikers as you listed how would they fare? Would Higuain still be as you thought.

 

[Robbie Boy]

Not world class but a good finisher. He will be a very good signing for Arsenal and I would imagine he will score quite a few.

 

[peterstorey]

Its certainly not a bad percentage, is it now? And now if you are to consider all the top 10 strikers as you listed how would they fare? Would Higuain still be as you thought.

Eh? It's crap - at 16% barely better than Defoe's 14% and a long way off Higuain's 32%. Last two seasons Higuain 43/32% chance conversion, Suarez 10/16%.

 

[Nani Nana]

Eh? It's crap - at 16% barely better than Defoe's 14% and a long way off Higuain's 32%. Last two seasons Higuain 43/32% chance conversion, Suarez 10/16%.

What sort of statistic is that anyway?

We don't even know what influences chance conversion rates - the level of opposition defenders and goalkeepers, the distance from which a shot is taken ? Is it a failed tap-in from close range or a decent effort from outside the box ? "Chance" is too broad a term to make anything of these stats, not to mention it fails to highlight whether it was created by the player himself finding space, dribbling players etc in which case converting 10% of chances you create on your own is a lot more meaningful than converting 30% of chances created by others.

Shooting accuracy for me is a better indicator, although also subjected to some similar shortcomings, and on that front Suarez is on par with his peers.

 

[peterstorey]

Oh, dear. Van Persie "bottled" one chance in the first CL game against Real Madrid. In the second game at home, he also "bottled" one chance. And chance in this context means big chance. Higuain "bottled" two/three great chances in the Super Cup earlier this season.

Van Persie bottled 3 big chances in the Bernabeu, which put you out of the CL. He also put us out the year before missing a sitter v Milan and the year before that by getting stupidly sent off.

 

[peterstorey]

What sort of statistic is that anyway?.

The sort of stat that confirms what you see when you watch Liverpool and see Suarez blowing chances - we're focused on finishing here nothing else.

 

[The Taurean]

Eh? It's crap - at 16% barely better than Defoe's 14% and a long way off Higuain's 32%. Last two seasons Higuain 43/32% chance conversion, Suarez 10/16%.

Though I asked for comparisons on a whole I will pursue your line.
Why would you ignore shooting accuracy? Surely just chance conversion wouldn't define your finishing attribute.

 

[Ekeke]

Higuain had good conversion rate because he had a lot of chances between the whites of the goalposts and he scored them. He's very good at that with both feet. However "chance conversion" wont tell you how he missed chances in big games, or when he failed to shoot in a one on one with the keeper. You need different stats for that.

 

[RedRonaldo]

Great signing for Arsenal. He will guarantee them 20-30 goals a season.

 

[The Neviller]

Why do we need stats at all? Anyone with two eyes can see Higuain is a good goalscorer. All this "he's shit, so good enough for Arsenal" etc etc blah blah blah nonsense is tedious whenever a rival signs someone. Unless it's Liverpool.

 

[LoveInTheAsylum]

Why do we need stats at all? Anyone with two eyes can see Higuain is a good goalscorer. All this "he's shit, so good enough for Arsenal" etc etc blah blah blah nonsense is tedious whenever a rival signs someone. Unless it's Liverpool.

Think it's fair enough in this case. As it's been pointed out, his record's that of a great player, not an elite one (one you look to make a difference against the best opposition). I'm not sure he's done more to justify leading the line at a top club than Hernández. But for where Arsenal are at right now, he would represent a great signing.

 

[Snow]

The sort of stat that confirms what you see when you watch Liverpool and see Suarez blowing chances - we're focused on finishing here nothing else.

Do free kicks count as finishing?

Why do we need stats at all? Anyone with two eyes can see Higuain is a good goalscorer. All this "he's shit, so good enough for Arsenal" etc etc blah blah blah nonsense is tedious whenever a rival signs someone. Unless it's Liverpool.

He would be a good signing (would be, he hasn't signed yet). People are arguing because as usual pete takes it too far. Never mentioned him before and now that he's touted to Arsenal he's suddenly become the best finisher in the world bar 1 or 2 players maybe. That's the issue.

Definitely a better finisher than Suarez. That's obvious.

 

[peterstorey]

People are arguing because as usual pete takes it too far.

I'm just acting as a counterbalance to those who are claiming he's some kind of Defoe-like stumblebum, not a striker who's scored 106 in 188 league appearances for Real.

 

[Dominos]

Van Persie bottled 3 big chances in the Bernabeu, which put you out of the CL. He also put us out the year before missing a sitter v Milan and the year before that by getting stupidly sent off.

I'd love if someone could dig up your views on his sending off at the time, safe to assume it wasn't Van Persie you were blaming.

 

[Grinner]

Stat arguments bore the piss out of me. It'll all come down to whether he can do it at Stoke on a wet Tuesday night.

 

[SATA]

Apparently scheduled for a medical at Arsenal on Monday week

 

[NoLogo]

Apparently scheduled for a medical at Arsenal on Monday week

What? I thought they were signing Rooney? Madness Wenger, madness.

 

[paceme]

Most madrid fans were pissed off with him missing chances in big games from what I remember. He's always seemed like an alright player, though not top drawer. 25 mill is abit much.

 

[MoneyMay]

Heh, give it a rest mate. You're arguing against something I've not even said. Higuaín overall has been very good at Madrid but I think he's had just one "world class"/sensational/whatever you want to call it season. That's all I was saying. 09/10 was the one year where he was right up there with the best forwards in the world. The rest of the time he's been in and around the top 10, IMO. Last season was his only below-par season and Spanish posters in the newbies say that's down to a more Ronaldo-focussed setup this year which is why Özil, Benzema and Di María all (somewhat) struggled this year too. The other seasons he's generally been great, as I've said at the time...

Basically I think he's always been in that "best of the rest" group rather than being "top class" other than that one season where he was pretty much a one-man team for the last few months. It probably is unfair to criticise his mentality given the way he's been treated at Madrid and his tendency to turn it on in the last few months of the (league) season. The CL form really does leave some question marks though and even at his best a common criticism of Higuaín from Madrid fans is his tendency to disappear against top defences.

Give what a rest? Are we friends now since you called me "mate" haha? I was debating the "he did have that one sensational season under Schuster (?) but other times he's looked like an uninterested, useless lump not unlike Adebayor" part, which is untrue and unfair. He's had two world class seasons, 08/09 and 09/10. You could also make a case for 11/12, but the reason I wouldn't class it as a world class season is the fact he never established himself as a first team player, and Mourinho's rotation policy had a lot to do with that (and the fact Higuain has a limited skillset). I disagree with the newbies because the system has been focused on Ronaldo for a few seasons. Only Pellegrini got the best out of Ronaldo and Higuain together, whereas Mourinho failed to do so, despite the goals in abundance. Higuain would have benefited off Real Madrid focussing more on Ozil IMO, you see how he is utilised at international level, and then you immediately shake your head at the incompetence of some managers.

I agree with your assessment, but I felt that you unfairly criticised him, by comparing him to Adebayor, who is probably the better player but an inferior finisher. Even though I highlighted his CL form, Arsenal aren't looking to win, they'll be competing for it, but their main objective is to become an elite force in the league again. The first two months of their season are "simple" on paper, certainly easier than our fixtures, so we'll see how things pan out.

 

[Ekeke]

He's definitely fallen a bit short at Madrid and theres a reason why people are downplaying him. But he's still a player that while Madrid were keen to replace or offload him a few seasons ago, managed to simply score too many goals for them to go through with it. He wasn't their ideal but he was a goalscorer that they couldn't dismiss. And on that form he'd be one of the best strikers in the league and convert a lot more chances than Giroud did last season

 

[The Neviller]

Most madrid fans were pissed off with him missing chances in big games from what I remember. He's always seemed like an alright player, though not top drawer. 25 mill is abit much.

If it's €25mil, which seems to be the case, that's just over £21mil, which doesn't sound particularly excessive for someone who has a ratio better than 1 goal every 2 games for Madrid.

 

[SATA]

For those who watch Higuain regularly, is he a better poacher than say, Hernandez and Inzaghi?

 

[alastair]

This would be a great signing and one of real intent. I won't get too excited before it's completed though. We need to tie it up and then go after a couple of midfielders.

 

[Ekeke]

No. I've been a Higuain fan since he battered a Valencia side I enjoyed watching with some nice finishing. But in terms of poaching and in terms of general play I'd have Hernandez over him any day of the week. The one part I do feel Higuain has over him is striking the ball from distance, but its not like he's getting a bunch of those goals a season ala Defoe or someone like that. Higuain also put in a couple of excellent crosses against us in the champions league this season

I guess its normal protocol but I think Madrid said they wanted around £30 million for him, so if Arsenal do get him for £22 million then thats probably a big win for them.

 

[thepolice123]

For those who watch Higuain regularly, is he a better poacher than say, Hernandez and Inzaghi?

His profile isn't that of a poacher. Inzaghi and Hernandez rely on their movement, their instincts and also inventive finishing in the box - the backwards header against Stoke, slipping the ball underneath Reina for the CL etc. Higuain is an all-rounder but he doesn't read the game like a poacher. What he has is good finishing abilities which probably led people into mistaking him for a poacher.

 

[SATA]

Fair enough. In the few times i watched him, he doesn't strike me anything other than a poacher in the box kind. His all round game was kind of lacking for me. I think Ekeke was right about him and the Defoe thing, but Defoe sure can hit a shot outside the box

 

[Ekeke]

All rounder? He's been as far from that as they come for Madrid. And I wasn't comparing him to Defoe, I was making the point that although he has a better distance shot than Hernandez, he doesnt score shed loads of long shots like Defoe did the season before last. He (Defoe) actually scored the most of the strikers in the league that season, I remember reading that stat in a striker analysis. So yeah, player is 20 yards out... Higuain is more likely to smash one in the back of the net than Hernandez. But it hasn't exactly been 4 or 5 screamers a
season for Higuain either.

Actually I should have mentioned he's a better dribbler too. Thats another one. Arguably?/Probably? Better technique too.

 

[RedRonaldo]

I would rank the following strikers (not in pure sense) in that order:
Legendary tier: Messi, Ronaldo
World class tier: Van Persie, Rooney, Bale, Falcao
Top class tier: Higuain, Benzema, Augero, Tevez, Cavani, Suarez, Lewandowski

So yeh, Higuain would be great buy for Arsenal, he is far better than anything they have got at the moment.

 

[alastair]

Rooney isn't realistically in that world class tier anymore.

Higuain, Cazorla and Wilshere together sounds lovely, with some great pace on the wing with Theo.

 

[Ekeke]

I didnt realise hes still 25. Thought he was a year or two older than that. For me all strikers in your top class tier are a tier above Higuain.

 

[Duafc]

Some people in here are being ridiculously harsh. He's been mis-managed imo and is going to be an asset wherever he goes. At 25 he's entering his peak and his stats for Real are very impressive, more so bearing in mind his injury and management problems.

Keeping fit is literally the only real concern I see with this signing.

 

[RedRonaldo]

Including Benzema? I don't think so, he is no better than him in Real. In fact any of these top tier strikers I listed above would not have more regular minutes and goals than Higuain did at Real over past few years.

 

[Ekeke]

Benzema is clearly better which is one of the most obvious reasons he's moving. Higuain's best goalscoring time coincided with a young Benzema moving to Madrid and adjusting, not very well at the start. At that point it was a valid comparison. But now there's clear daylight between them and Benzema has always been a better all round player.

I'd also add Soldado to the list above him. In fact I wonder why Arsenal arent going for him instead

 

[RedRonaldo]

Can't agree Benzema is clearly better. Even last season Higuain is more effective and scored more goals, and they still share squad rotation role equally. If Benzema is clearly better there would be no contest at all. But Benzema is better all round player I agree, Real may have preferred Benzema all round game rather than Higuain effectiveness and consistency in front of goals.