I can't find the study, so I'm not sure. I think you can fairly approximate it using a basket of different stats - goal attempts, possession, things generally considered 'good' in football. Of course it's not perfect as a team that has perfected counter-attacking might be the better team despite not doing much after they went ahead; but if applied across a number of teams and leagues it should give you an idea.
How good are we?
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) was joined by comedian Ali Woods to look back at the best and worst moments of a rollercoaster season with the annual United Hour Awards.
Has Ten Hag been sacked yet? We're not sure and we hope not, but it's looking more likely as the days pass.
Who should replace him and why is it taking so long to make a decision?
But I don't see any reason to believe that the wins will stop, except for a major glut of injuries, of course, or Fergie going back to the stupid team selections which have hindered us at times. I think it's about time people on here started gaining a bit of confidence.
I have never been as certain about United winning a title as I was going into this season. We've gone about it in a weirdly cackhanded way, but we're getting the points and the goals I expected, so I remain as confident as I was three months ago. I think we're really, really good, and if we could sort out the system and get Vidic back to the player he used to be, I suspect we could be great.
But what do you expect when you have a squad which gains 89 points, and then add Robin Van fecking Persie to it?
What is more likely: the defence will get better or the attack will get worse? I think the first is more probable. So I'm not too concerned about the nailbiting nature of some of the wins, because I'm confident that the results in the league will continue to be as good as they have been so far, especially considering how many hard fixtures have already been played (Storeytime anyone?).
Europe is different as the games only get harder as the season progresses.
Europe is different as the games only get harder as the season progresses.
But I don't think it's just been a question of the defence being bad. The midfield's been defensively non-existent. I don't think any defence would look good behind them.
Player for player, the defence has been alright. Evans and Rafael have been mostly great, Evra and De Gea have done alright. They haven't been as well organised as usual, especially from set-pieces, but they've been facing intolerable pressure in open play.
Player for player, the defence has been alright. Evans and Rafael have been mostly great, Evra and De Gea have done alright. They haven't been as well organised as usual, especially from set-pieces, but they've been facing intolerable pressure in open play.
Yeah, I find that, when talking to casual football fans at least, it leaves one open to the simplistic response of "I prefer to score goals than make pretty passes" and such. It's probably a niche interest, but I'd like to see a lot more of this sort of broadly scientific analysis done into football on Sky and ITV and such, rather than rolling out people who used to play the game and watch it a fair bit now.
The wins might stop because we don't get as lucky as we have done so far. I think continuing with the current form and getting to 92 or 93 points would represent an outstanding achievement, but unless we keep getting lucky we'll need to improve to maintain it. We're probably not going to be able to keep falling behind and then coming back late on, sometimes other teams are going to defend better, sometimes referees will cost us points, sometimes VP and Rooney will have bad days or the midfielders won't be able to get the ball to them, and so on.
In particular injuries to our strikers similar to what has happened to our defenders in the early part of this season would kill us, the defensive injury crisis isn't such a problem for us because, apart from Vidic, whose current abilities are unknown, all of our defenders are at roughly the same level, but there's a massive chasm between Rooney & VP compared to Welbeck & Hernandez, if the former two get injured it's a massive blow.
Saying that, I don't want to give the impression I'm being pessimistic, I'm not, I think there's a good chance we could maintain this points/games ratio, provided Vidic returns, provided our defence improves, providing at least one of our world class strikers stay fit, all of which are pretty likely. Sustaining the current ratio though, that is the optimistic view, the idea that we'll improve on the current form once Vidic comes back and when other players settle in better, that's pretty much a fantasy. As far as results go our current run is about as good as it's going to get.
It's not so much that I think Vidic coming back will improve results, that's near enough impossible, it's more that if we get the defence more solid I think there's a good chance we'll start murdering teams.
There's just something about him now which undermines our defence. I can't quite put my finger on it but I'm certain it's down to him.
Obviously this excludes games in which we play a statue of Paul Scholes in midfield, where even Nesta and Maldini would have problems, but Scholesy hasn't actually played all that much.
I think Rio's a large part of the problem, but in a weird way which means you could make a highlights video of most of his matches which made him look like the best defender in the world.
There's just something about him now which undermines our defence. I can't quite put my finger on it but I'm certain it's down to him.
Obviously this excludes games in which we play a statue of Paul Scholes in midfield, where even Nesta and Maldini would have problems, but Scholesy hasn't actually played all that much.
I'd love that. Then again, I'd love anything compared to half-time "analysis" as it is now. Just showing highlights of the same fixture from previous years would be great.
It would be interesting to know if fans of high-scoring games like basketball regard a game won against the run of play as a rarity. Common sense suggests that they would; whereas in football they happen all the time. Given that the league is often decided by very few points, that alone should strongly imply that the best team doesn't always win the league.
Isn't it just that his pace has gone?
Well, that's a big part of it, watching him live this season had been genuinely depressing at times in that regard. Perhaps the rest of it comes from that, it must be bloody horrible being a footballer in your mid-30s, kinda like old age for the rest of us.
There has been times he has been shown up but I think for the most part he has been good.He's played with an experienced head. You're judging him against 29 year old Rio who was one of the best defenders ever. 34 year old Rio is still far better than 90% of the defenders in the league and has a wealth of knowledge and experience to pass on.
"Luck" in football has to be defined. To me it is things which affect the game and are beyond the control of the teams and players, like referees making incorrect decisions or other "acts of Kaka's imaginary friend".
Some might say City were unlucky to concede that third goal and Nasri's deflection was bad luck, but to me it was just the result of poor play. It's more about variability. Poor play can go anywhere from horribly wrong (Nasri) to fantastically right (if you think Rooney mishit his first goal). But it is still based on what the players do or don't do, so not luck. The naysayers may count 2 of our 3 goals as lucky, but I don't. City didn't defend them well and paid the price.
Some might say City were unlucky to concede that third goal and Nasri's deflection was bad luck, but to me it was just the result of poor play. It's more about variability. Poor play can go anywhere from horribly wrong (Nasri) to fantastically right (if you think Rooney mishit his first goal). But it is still based on what the players do or don't do, so not luck. The naysayers may count 2 of our 3 goals as lucky, but I don't. City didn't defend them well and paid the price.
Well, I don't think anyone would say those goals were WHOLLY down to luck. But scoring a free-kick with a deflection off one of the players in the wall is clearly luckier than smacking it straight into the top corner.
So is hitting a tame free-kick that the goalie fumbles in. What the opposition do is often out of your hands, and therefore in the luck rather than skill column from your POV. In a discussion about who played better, United or City, opposition errors count for you; but in a discussion of what had a bigger role, United's luck or United's skill, they count in the luck column (except insofar as they're errors forced by United's skill).
This. If you look at how we played against City, it was a major gamble. Our CBs had to be on song the whole match otherwise they would have spanked us. What do I mean? One-on-one situations. They handle up to about 10-15 when we play like this. That's why we got burnt against Spurs. For whatever reason, we thought we could get away with it.
Defensively, people look at midfield and the backline as separate entities, but really they need to work together otherwise you're always going to be susceptible to a banana skin. We improved defensively on Sunday but even then, lapses of concentration gifted City two goals. We've got some ways to go yet in this department and I'm sure Fergie wants to see immediate improvement. As Souness said, you can't keep conceding goals as we are and expect to win trophies. Our attack can't always bail us out.
You'll go through that as well. I remember vividly coming up a defender who I always skinned for pace - pushed the ball past him and didn't get away. Odd. Next time gave myself more advantage - didn't get away. Again. Guy is now quicker than me 
.His overall sharpness has taken a complete nose dive imo.
He gets caught a lot being poorly positioned on balls into the box or down the side of him. This NEVER used to happen with him.
He used to bring the ball out assuredly from the back and even commit opposition players before finding a team mate. Now he dallies a bit then chips the ball up the pitch to no one, or tries to be clever and ends up spinning round in a circle and losing possession.
He's not awful by any means but the back injury has taken a lot out of him and I reckon ability wise Smalling and Evans are both comfortably ahead of him now. He gets the nod because the extra experience and composure is pretty useful.
The problem with the lack of pace is it stops our back line from pushing up, which is part of the reason our defence ends up with Gareth Bale hurtling towards it with the ball and in about 30 yards of space.
I find it completely mad that we play with out and out wide players so create space for teams to get in behind us through the channels...and then leave our defence a good 20 yards behind our midfield to boot. The opposition don't even need to worry about drawing us out of position at times...we're perfectly exposed when everyone's in position.
Definitely think there's areas where we can and will improve a fair bit. If we can start fielding actual functionable midfields most weeks that would be a start. If we can get the defence playing in tandem with the midfield that'd make a huge difference...and going forwards I don't think there's that uch wrong. The wingers and forwards will sort themselves out and aren't really an issue. On sunday for example our wingers were both important and did a good job despite neither being in top form.
Plech, have to say we pretty much agree on everything. I think we can build on this win against City. It's a huge psychological boost for the squad and it's happened at the right time as we are nearing the busy Christmas period. Hopefully we build on this win and gain some momentum with our performances. We have been picking up the results, but now the team needs to show more cohesion and discipline.
Our lineups will still fluctuate as players come back but for these next few weeks, we should leave the backline largely untouched. De Gea deserves a run and it's time he builds a better understanding with our defenders. Winning against City has slightly warped my outlook for this season. I expected a draw and at worst a loss but beating your neighbors and ending their unbeaten record is absolutely fantastic. The celebrations showed the players knew the meaning of that win and our confidence can only go up from here. You saw how City were after the 6-1. Had that feeling of the inevitable. If we build on this win, I actually do think we could walk the league. That's how good our attack is and we're not even at full pelt. Blimey!
Great observation noodle. We have yet to rectify this issue with gaps between our midfield and defense.
You're probably right. i'm being cautious because I called Rio as shot a year or so ago, and was reprimanded by sincher. I'm slightly frightened of sincher.
Yes I've noticed that. Did you want us to sign Liam Miller too?
Er, agreed.
sincher had a kid and has never been the same sinch.
I did that too. I started a thread on here saying so but the thought police slapped me down so I deleted it again.
This forum was fun before Sincher's reign of organised terror took over.
I find it bizarre. There have been times this season when Scholes or Giggs have been in there, where we've been so tactically self exposed and easy to play against it's been genuinely pathetic.
This sort of thing I'd expect to be rectified and simply not happen in the later half of the season, but who knows...I thought that after the Liverpool game, and then we did exactly the same thing the very next week.
I do think we can become a much better team off the ball. It's possibly the weakest side of our game, I was shocked at how much harder Bilbao worked off the ball compared to us last year. Less old people would be a great place to start in regards to that as noodlehair inferred.
Aye. Think Fergie's got the big games figured out. It's the smaller ones that worry me now.
We're 8 out of 10
Very strong but weak in some areas, namely
Rio's age and declining ability - still very good though but not like 2008 Rio
Vidic fitness
As a result we could use a world class CB next summer
Lack of a dominant goalkeeper (need to give De Gea a chance
Anderson's fitness
Giggs selection in CM in games that matter
The need for a world class midfielder (in the Roy Keane mould - not asking much!)
A happy Nani
A left foot for Valencia
A more consistent tactical approach to games - we are ideally suited to the formation with Rooney deep between midfield/attack - perfect balance for me
These are the areas I feel we could improve
I'd put us on a par with Dortmund and Bayern but behind Barca and Madrid
Very strong but weak in some areas, namely
Rio's age and declining ability - still very good though but not like 2008 Rio
Vidic fitness
As a result we could use a world class CB next summer
Lack of a dominant goalkeeper (need to give De Gea a chance
Anderson's fitness
Giggs selection in CM in games that matter
The need for a world class midfielder (in the Roy Keane mould - not asking much!)
A happy Nani
A left foot for Valencia
A more consistent tactical approach to games - we are ideally suited to the formation with Rooney deep between midfield/attack - perfect balance for me
These are the areas I feel we could improve
I'd put us on a par with Dortmund and Bayern but behind Barca and Madrid
well of course strolling the league is always nice but it would be painful to watch fergie get taught a lesson again by Madrid. There's a difference between losing a tie and getting embarrassed and in 2000 and 2003 we were embarrassed by that lot.
IIRC we were favourites going into both ties.
Atleast this time if we drew them, we wouldn't be so perhaps that'll change things.
This is the same Dortmund that drew in Madrid and beat them in Dortmund? and the same Bayern that beat Madrid last year in the semi and look stronger this year in some ways?
given the evidence, there is nothing to suggest the krauts are a level below Madrid.
I think the ability to play a high line, and excel doing that, would be paramount for us to reach the next level. Starting with two wide men, a slow midfield and slow defense leaves too many gaps for the opposition to exploit. We can make better use of Scholes if we can keep the majority of play in the 2/3rd's of the field from the opposition goal. We afford far too many spaces now as a result of the midfield playing too far away from the attack or there is too much gap from the defense. If we can push the defenders up, this will allow Carrick and Scholes to move up and shorten the gap.
With Ando out, we would need Scholes starting in the middle. Playing a high line with two mobile defenders would help us immensely in the games against lower opposition, who like to sit back and hit us on the counter. The team defends from the front and the high line lays the offside track for the opposition strikers. We would also be in less danger off being caught by hoofballs.
I hope that we start Jones and Smalling at CB for the Sunderland game and see how it goes. Jones can be instructed to play with control and not run in the opposition box at every opportunity.
![](https://<iframe width="350" height="448" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" src="http://lineupbuilder.com/lineup/?p=11&a=1&t=&c=dc0000&1=GK___388_175&2=ML_Evra__232_46&3=DMC_Smalling__283_136&4=DMC_Jones__284_219&5=MR___243_276&6=MC_Scholes__203_136&7=MCR_Carrick__223_215&8=AL_Young__141_78&9=AC_Rooney__133_188&10=AR_Valencia__131_304&11=FC_RVP__93_147&output=embed"></iframe>)
With Ando out, we would need Scholes starting in the middle. Playing a high line with two mobile defenders would help us immensely in the games against lower opposition, who like to sit back and hit us on the counter. The team defends from the front and the high line lays the offside track for the opposition strikers. We would also be in less danger off being caught by hoofballs.
I hope that we start Jones and Smalling at CB for the Sunderland game and see how it goes. Jones can be instructed to play with control and not run in the opposition box at every opportunity.
I think the game at the weekend (and maybe the league game away to Chelsea) show that on our day we can beat anyone (in the PL anyway), biggest problem this season has been complacency in the lesser games
Not as good as City according to Mancini.
Relegation candidate good according to RAWK.
I say top of the league good even though we are seldom really convincing.
My conclusion.
Aliens.
Relegation candidate good according to RAWK.
I say top of the league good even though we are seldom really convincing.
My conclusion.
Aliens.
It's bizarre, isn't it?
Real have convinced everyone that, even if they haven't won much lately, it's still the greatest honour in world football to play for them, and, even if they're decisively beaten over two legs by another team, they're still somehow better than them.
I believe that there is an element of responsibility on Barcelona's behalf here. Simply, they have raised the bar of fan expectation not just on their own club, but others too (particularly ours).
I think that we are a better team than most on here seem to. This place is probably not a true barometer of the average supporters feelings because a football forum is a place to dissect and discuss, not necessarily to praise, but nevertheless this is a horribly downbeat site at times, which probably makes us look like a spoilt bunch to other fans.
We don't have long periods of free-flowing football or complete dominance, but then we haven't ever really had that. Even the treble side (our best ever?) used to lose stupid matches, or not turn up sometimes, but the difference is that they used to occassionally really murder a team, and we don't do that anymore.
We can't ignore results either. "We've won 13 of 16 games, but we are shit". That argument just doesn't wash with me. The team are doing what they have to do, and it still feels like we are just getting going this season. I don't believe that this is an accident, and I really can't wait for us to come up against a big European team to see what we are really made of.
I think that we are a better team than most on here seem to. This place is probably not a true barometer of the average supporters feelings because a football forum is a place to dissect and discuss, not necessarily to praise, but nevertheless this is a horribly downbeat site at times, which probably makes us look like a spoilt bunch to other fans.
We don't have long periods of free-flowing football or complete dominance, but then we haven't ever really had that. Even the treble side (our best ever?) used to lose stupid matches, or not turn up sometimes, but the difference is that they used to occassionally really murder a team, and we don't do that anymore.
We can't ignore results either. "We've won 13 of 16 games, but we are shit". That argument just doesn't wash with me. The team are doing what they have to do, and it still feels like we are just getting going this season. I don't believe that this is an accident, and I really can't wait for us to come up against a big European team to see what we are really made of.
And yet the opposite impression is garnered by visiting other forums. I sometimes read the TEAMtalk pages, and the apoplectic criticism there of Fergie, the players and everything United, makes the Cafe seem a model of restraint. For instance, it's only in the last year that any of Fergie's decisions have been seriously questioned on the Cafe.
That would surprise me. This is the only forum I ever read on football. Think I'll avoid Teamtalk
We'll definitely win the league, but at the same time, it's the weakest set of title rivals I've seen in a long time, there isn't even a big 4, just a Chelsea with a dumb owner and a City who are capitulating after their success last year.
On the other hand, it's the strongest CL I've seen in ages, so I think it'll take a Chelsea-esque miracle to win it.
How good are we? We're grand.
On the other hand, it's the strongest CL I've seen in ages, so I think it'll take a Chelsea-esque miracle to win it.
How good are we? We're grand.
It won't take a miracle to win the CL. It will take some luck (on the pitch and with the draw), same as with any other team. I think we are about fifth favourites with the bookies. Sounds about right to me.
Complete nonsense imo, and strange coming after the brilliant performance he just put in last weekend.
His pace isn't the same, but then he's still as quick if not quicker than Vidic and about 90% of central defenders in the league.
I'm confident we'll win the league. Our attackers are as good as it gets. Also, on form we've got great creativity from wide positions, but questions remains over our options in central midfield and in defence.
We've got the talents who'll grow into their roles at the back so CM is the one thing holding us a bit back as I see it.
How good are we? Well, we've not played great football and most of our matches this season have been frustrating in terms of us not really looking like a cohesive outfit. At the same time I've been really impressed with the way we've handled big matches. Reminds me of what we used to do in 08-09 with Ronaldo and Rooney killing teams on the counter-attack.
Van Persie is a real difference maker and has elevated us onto a higher level, that much is clear.
We've got the talents who'll grow into their roles at the back so CM is the one thing holding us a bit back as I see it.
How good are we? Well, we've not played great football and most of our matches this season have been frustrating in terms of us not really looking like a cohesive outfit. At the same time I've been really impressed with the way we've handled big matches. Reminds me of what we used to do in 08-09 with Ronaldo and Rooney killing teams on the counter-attack.
Van Persie is a real difference maker and has elevated us onto a higher level, that much is clear.
The idea of playing Dortmund, Barca or Bayern frightens me, personally.
Saying that, I am sort of basing this on current form, so if things change, our midfield learns how to defend, our wingers learn how to attack, and our defense learn to stop making spastic decisions, then it's always possible.
I'd say Barca are on a different level with Bayern, Dortmond and Real behind. So far, we're probably below them - although we have been getting results.
We certainly have the team to be at the Bayern, Dortmond and Real level - and with a young squad and a decent midfield purchase to supass them in a couple of years.
We certainly have the team to be at the Bayern, Dortmond and Real level - and with a young squad and a decent midfield purchase to supass them in a couple of years.
That is not true, Cina. We have played well when we wanted to and European games in the later stages are like chess matches. You can always luck out with the draw, like the last time we reached the finals. If we can find a midfielder in January or somehow miraculously keep Anderson fit from Feb to the end of the season, anything could happen.
Besides Barcelona and Bayern we have a good chance against anyone.
I doubt either of those will happen though, especially buying a midfielder. Plus, whilst Anderson has shown promise this season when he's played, he's still looked incredibly unfit at times and it's very, very optimistic to think he'll actually have enough of an impact on our rather crap midfield to be able to compete with the midfields of the teams mentioned.
We've played pretty well against big teams in the PL, but the big teams in the PL are weaker than ever this season, and it's for that reason I think we'll go and win it. Chelsea and Arsenal in particular were god awful when we played them, and City hardly shone themselves in glory either.