India politics thread

calodo2003

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Anecdote from my side, in my city, there's now a 24 hour wait to cremate/bury. This, despite running 24/7. Completely unheard of previously.
Anecdotal, but the causation certainly ain’t.

How is this phenomenon being spun? Or is no one asking the question with a loud enough megaphone?
 

pratyush_utd

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We live in a market economy. The govt does not control many industries. More than 75% of healthcare spending in India is private, and almost all pharma manufacturing is private. Most chemical industries are private, and Reliance is the biggest one, dominating chemical and petrochemicals since before I was born. The only substantial public sector manufacturing is coal and steel, but even in steel SAIL is about equal with private players like Tata and Jindal.

You are praising private companies for providing oxygen , unlike "state govts". But, as part of our market liberalisation, governments, especially state govts, no longer make or use much oxygen. It would be like wondering why Infosys isn't making aircraft or Parle isn't making lightbulbs. The few govt entities that do make oxygen - steel plants - are all diverting their oxygen to hospitals. For example:
https://www.livemint.com/news/india...gen-for-covid-19-patients-11619444952037.html
https://www.hindustantimes.com/indi...ister-dharmendra-pradhan-101619254038898.html

It is good that Reliance, India's biggest and most proitable company led by India's richest man, is giving O2 free. It is wrong to say it has not got the benefit of govt "investment", in many many many different areas, few examples:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gas_Wars
https://www.livemint.com/Politics/R...-initial-Rafael-remarks-questionable-Aru.html
And there is older stuff too, Pranab Mukherjee, who was Defence Minister, Finance Minister, Foreign Minister, part of the Planning Commission, and President, was "very close" to Dhirubhai. Murli and Milind Deora, who were Oil Ministers, are Ambani men.

Btw, your proposal that Delhi govt build oxygen plants is exactly the bad old days of Nehruvian socialism that were left behind in 1991.
I didn't suggest entirely. I suggest providing assistance that more private players come up instead of wasting money on Government run hospitals which do not work because of the incompetence of our government machinery. Providing easier access to equipment at subsided rate ( or strike a deal that this many patients will get subsided treatment) could have been done. Either these hospital jack up price to justify infrastructure development or we find a model to make it sustainable for them.

All the fusion of money that happens in bank goes to PSU banks which in next 2-3 years after its infusion goes back to its original state. Check Arvind Panagariya analysis on why Indian banks are still struggling.

Private infrastructure assistance don't only include financial benefits but also the red tape culture we have. Removing barriers and giving incentive to private players will accelerate our growth. Right now to even set up a modest Small scale industry you need to go through huge number of red tape.


As far as your Reliance point is concerned, the model of not involving the Government in production works. Supply chain management is still basically under government in cities. And we can see how inept our government is.

Basically it was 1.30 am in stressful period and it came out wrong. I am firm believer in free market economy and I have seen the incompetency of Government at every level that I hope they get involved in as little as possible and provide outside assistance.
 
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pratyush_utd

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hard to say exactly, this mass fudging has been in the 2nd wave, not as much in the 1st. this was the analysis of how much is being undercounted:


Other than maybe the 1st, all these are fairly big cities (3 are state capitals), spread over 4 states, showing a lot of undercounting, maybe a factor of 10. and then we know in more rural areas it will be worse, but also the disease has spread less there.
One analysis by Print here

https://theprint.in/opinion/if-you-...figure-its-understandable-but-not-10x/647994/

Basically if we attribute every cremation right now to Covid then it would be an unfair assessment.

Although I will point one of the major reason why death number is under reported is that they don't consider death at home as Covid fatality. My grandparent after much fight succumbed to Covid but his death wasn't counted because on his 2nd last day, he was moved out of hospital due to demand of hospital and we just couldn't find any other hospital. Then they didn't report cause of death as Covid. Although by that time it didn't really matter to us but something to consider what is happening. This was in Jharkhand. So I expect similar cases all around the country
 

pratyush_utd

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Anecdotal, but the causation certainly ain’t.

How is this phenomenon being spun? Or is no one asking the question with a loud enough megaphone?
No one is spinning anything because not a single political leader is available to comment. All political leaders have just vanished. They are hoping that things become better on their own and then people will forget. Which unfortunately will happen.

It's unfortunate how frontline workers have been thrown in the mess to handle this pandemic. And most of the time these people are the one who is facing the anger of the public.
 

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v surprised by bengal results, especially the margin. others seem to be expected.
Suprised as well but also do infuriating. The entire govt machinery was focussed on Bengal and they aren't even close to winning. What if all the effort was spent on the covid fight instead...
 

pratyush_utd

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Thumping victory for TMC in West Bengal. Tamil Nadu still looks close. Assam,Kerala and Puducherry were expected.

Congress for the sake of this country should do a complete reset. Losing in Kerala, if they manage victory in Tamil Nadu then it will be no thanks to them, losing in Puducherry and Assam. In Assam they even went with AIUDF which malign there reputation elsewhere but still losing. Plus no seats in Bengal which 10 years ago would have been unthinkable.
 
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pratyush_utd

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Suprised as well but also do infuriating. The entire govt machinery was focussed on Bengal and they aren't even close to winning. What if all the effort was spent on the covid fight instead...
Don't think it's suprising. You just don't win elections in India without cadre support and TMC has immense lead in that. BJP got 2 seats in 2015 and started building it's organisation then. They might get 100 seats this time which is quite a big lead than last time.
 

coolredwine

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One analysis by Print here

https://theprint.in/opinion/if-you-...figure-its-understandable-but-not-10x/647994/

Basically if we attribute every cremation right now to Covid then it would be an unfair assessment.

Although I will point one of the major reason why death number is under reported is that they don't consider death at home as Covid fatality. My grandparent after much fight succumbed to Covid but his death wasn't counted because on his 2nd last day, he was moved out of hospital due to demand of hospital and we just couldn't find any other hospital. Then they didn't report cause of death as Covid. Although by that time it didn't really matter to us but something to consider what is happening. This was in Jharkhand. So I expect similar cases all around the country
Which is where excess mortality is important rather than just covid19 fatality rate. And that is not available in India, given only 25% of mortalities were medically recorded until 2018.
 

berbatrick

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Don't think it's suprising. You just don't win elections in India without cadre support and TMC has immense lead in that. BJP got 2 seats in 2015 and started building it's organisation then. They might get 100 seats this time which is quite a big lead than last time.
bjp got 41% voteshare and 18 out of 42 LS seats from bengal in 2019. obviously they have presence on the ground. this time 37% and 90 seats out of 290.

not a total shock but it is underperformance.
 

pratyush_utd

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bjp got 41% voteshare and 18 out of 42 LS seats from bengal in 2019. obviously they have presence on the ground. this time 37% and 90 seats out of 290.

not a total shock but it is underperformance.
I think State election is bit different to Lok Sabha election. In 2015, what I know is that BJP didn't have booth manager and they are quite essential in winning election at grass root level. So to progress from 3 seat and to bring up organization in just 5 years to something around 85-90 seats will be considered good achievement.

It's the chest thumping of BJP which will be mocked relentlessly. They created a narrative that they are sweeping Bengal and people who don't live in Bengal fell for it.

By the way I am stunned at deterioration of Congress in West Bengal and losing Kerala where they won 20 lok sabha seats just 2 years before. Not good for the country if principal opposition is getting decimated.
 

calodo2003

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No one is spinning anything because not a single political leader is available to comment. All political leaders have just vanished. They are hoping that things become better on their own and then people will forget. Which unfortunately will happen.

It's unfortunate how frontline workers have been thrown in the mess to handle this pandemic. And most of the time these people are the one who is facing the anger of the public.
Christ, that’s a shame as y’all saw how much of an abortion it was in my country with the federal government kicking responsibility to the states / front line workers.
 

calodo2003

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Yup, torrid scenes here.


The latter basically. Everyone pretty much knows the numbers are wrong, because nearly everyone's losing a family member (close or distant).
Is there any credible NGO connecting the dots? Would the public even believe them when the results are published or would they be allowed to publish?
 

harshad

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Would the public even believe them when the results are published
Nah... any negative report will be tarnished by questioning the funding and motive of the NGO and if the said NGO has received foreign funding, it will be further maligned as a conspiracy of foreign elements to destablise the great Indian Government
 

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Prashant Kishor says BJP would have won even fewer seats if the EC had acted impartially. Says he's not seen the kind of partiality in his career so far. Says things will be hard in other parts with EC acting this way. Hard to disagree with him.
 

Varun

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Prashant Kishor says BJP would have won even fewer seats if the EC had acted impartially. Says he's not seen the kind of partiality in his career so far. Says things will be hard in other parts with EC acting this way. Hard to disagree with him.
He's bang on. Dumbledore literally recruited Voldemort, the death eaters and the dementors but thankfully still lost.
 

pratyush_utd

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Mamata Banerjee won Nandigram by 1200 votes. Slim margin but this was a bold move and it paid off.

Striking a deal with AIMIM and Left + demolition ensured TMC a massive victory.
 

Nickelodeon

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I guess next 5 years will be tough for BJP workers on ground.
It’s actually a shame that TMC, despite their own issues of corruption and hooliganism, is now the liberal choice of vote. Clearly, Bengal saw them as a lesser of the two evils. Just a sign of how the overall political environment in the country has constantly regressed in the last decade or so.
 

kiristao

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Nah... any negative report will be tarnished by questioning the funding and motive of the NGO and if the said NGO has received foreign funding, it will be further maligned as a conspiracy of foreign elements to destablise the great Indian Government
Plus there are enough supporters at ground level who genuinely still believe Modi isn't at fault at all for anything that is happening right now.
When I said the least he should have done is not have such mega rallies in the middle of the second wave, I was asked why people went for the rallies. What exactly can one say to people who say stuff like this.
 

Sultan

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“Power will go to the hands of rascals, rogues, freebooters; all Indian leaders will be of low calibre & men of straw. They will have sweet tongues and silly hearts. They will fight amongst themselves for power and India will be lost in political squabbles.”

The statement seems to be attributed to Churchill. Given what is and has been happening in India, it seems as Indians we have worked pretty hard to prove him right.
 

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Mahua Moitra says certain people tried to look like Tagore but ended up looking like Asaram Babu :lol:
 

gorky_utd

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Not that TMC is a great party, but as a Bengali I am relieved that we won't turn into another UP.