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[neverdie]

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Last time this happened was the second intifada which ended with the war with Hezbollah. Crazy days ahead. Some good sounds from the sane section of Israeli and Palestinian society (and politics) though.

 

[calodo2003]

That it came from the WSJ. I'd like to see the intel behind it and citations/quotations.

No, that Iran played a part in the lead up to yesterday. It’s seemingly impossible that Hamas had the wherewithal & finances to orchestrate such an incursion.

 

[calodo2003]

They've been doing this for 30 years is what people forget. Rabin/Arrafat prisoner swaps. It seems insane now, but throughout two full blown intifadas and conflicts in-between this has been the norm for a long time.

We may have crossed the hostage swap Rubicon with yesterday’s events. Plus it doesn’t seem that there’s an Arafat-esque figure in Hamas right now.

The 1 for 1040 ratio probably won’t be kosher either for Israel.

 

[neverdie]

No, that Iran played a part in the lead up to yesterday. It’s seemingly impossible that Hamas had the wherewithal & finances to orchestrate such an incursion.

People underestimate a freedom fighting/terrorist organisition's capacity to launch attacks 20 years ~ into an unparalled siege situation. It's been coming. Iran funds Hezbollah and supports Hamas, it just isn't pulling the strings as some are depicting here. Same way Israel funds anti-Iranian forces everywhere but is hardly responsible for the latest surge in popular unrest in Iran.

 

[Raoul]

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The bit he left out is it will be impossible to disarm Khhhhamas without eliminating them in the process.

 

[neverdie]

Plus it doesn’t seem that there’s an Arafat-esque figure in Hamas right now.

Or in any of the three major factions, which is 90% of the problem. Fatah can't govern because Israel, independent of these events, has made it impossible for an autonomous Palestinian WB by official decree. That feeds into Hamas and IJ support within the WB and complete ownership of Gaza (though that goes back a bit longer). As Israeli member said, this has been coming.

 

[Carolina Red]

The bit he left out is it will be impossible to disarm Khhhhamas without eliminating them in the process.

I was posting it more for the explanation that they intend to invade Gaza

 

[owlo]

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I barely believe it.

It’s not 2006.they dont have accurate plans within12 months old or assets on the ground any more. The Ukraine and Syrian wars have happened. He’s a 2 star talking like they will have ground superiority and be able to be discrete about killing. They will be massacred. I’m not even convinced their 3 tank platoons are optimal any more. And hamas clearly have both vampir and kornet.

It feels like arrogance, and that they will pay a huge price for being baited into there.

 

[calodo2003]

People underestimate a freedom fighting/terrorist organisition's capacity to launch attacks 20 years ~ into an unparalled siege situation. It's been coming. Iran funds Hezbollah and supports Hamas, it just isn't pulling the strings as some are depicting here. Same way Israel funds anti-Iranian forces everywhere but is hardly responsible for the latest surge in popular unrest in Iran.

There has never been an attack like this before anywhere. We are talking about a quantum leap forward in multi-domain warfare coupled with precision. This was months, if not years, in planning. The foresight for this demands someone leading the pack of neophytes; here we had the Revolutionary Guard leading the pack.

I’m not pulling this out of thin air. I don’t think I’ve heard or read about anyone discounting Iran as a benefactor of yesterday. Could be wrong, but the burgeoning opinion of the military & intel sectors is that Iran helped.

 

[Carolina Red]

I barely believe it.

It’s not 2006.they dont have accurate plans within12 months old or assets on the ground any more. The Ukraine and Syrian wars have happened. He’s a 2 star talking like they will have ground superiority and be able to be discrete about killing. They will be massacred. I’m not even convinced their 3 tank platoons are optimal any more. And hamas clearly have both vampir and kornet.

It feels like arrogance, and that they will pay a huge price for being baited into there.

You have to figure that Bibi is on the IDF’s back demanding retaliatory action.

 

[NotThatSoph]

Any rational discourse I’ve seen has called it war not terror. There are some characteristics (Wagner, importing Syrian fighters, use of fires, kidnapping Ukrainian kids into russia) which I guess might qualify for such a statement, but ultimately war is terrifying. Looking at the eu statement, it was particularly targeting Russian backed militias. Kadyrov, Wagner, etc as sponsored paramilitary groups by the Russian state to commit terror in Ukraine. They also mentioned specifically targeting civilians for death without warning.

There’s no parallels to the IDF actions here I believe?

I'm not attempting to draw a parallell between the IDF and Russia, it wouldn't really matter. What constitutes terror is very influenced by ideological motivations, often more than the actual actions, is more what I'm getting at. It's often said terrorism by definition has to be by non-state actors, but this qualifier is often dropped if we really want to call something terrorism and that point stands in the way. It's pretty useless, anyway. Several countries recognize Palestine as a state, and Hamas is the government. This was clearly a military operation, so can e.g. Brazil say that the attack on the civilians attending the music festival was terrorism? Maybe, maybe not, but calling it terrorism or something else doesn't impact what actually happened. Likewise, Israel's response is going to be what it's going to be, some will call it state terrorism and others won't. It won't change the tactics used or who dies or lives.

The eu statement is focusing on the Wagner group and other proxies because they can be added to the terror list, while Russia can't under the current rules. The statement is pretty clear on the fact that it includes the Russian army among the terrorists.

 

[owlo]

The bit he left out is it will be impossible to disarm Khhhhamas without eliminating them in the process.

My read was arrogance, that they believe they can roll in like in 2006 and minimise civilian casualties. Truly hope this is not the case. He didn’t mention artillery or mlrs once, or cluster munitions.

Was your read simply that he’s a liar and failed to mention this because he didn’t want to?

 

[calodo2003]

Or in any of the three major factions, which is 90% of the problem. Fatah can't govern because Israel, independent of these events, has made it impossible for an autonomous Palestinian WB by official decree. That feeds into Hamas and IJ support within the WB and complete ownership of Gaza (though that goes back a bit longer). As Israeli member said, this has been coming.

There’s no figurehead who would be able to ensure that hostage swaps could take place within a reasonable time frame. This is a new prism through which we are looking.

 

[neverdie]

This was months, if not years, in planning.

People seem to forget the Palestinian response to the Ukrainian war (Ukraine's response to the invasion). They literally said, and you can go back and find the quotes, "what is the point of us going through peace talks that go nowhere when Ukraine can receive the support it receives and might actually get somewhere". They took it as a model.

The problem with the Iranian thing, not in money or guns, which goes back as many years as you want, but in "do this here now" style, is that it just goes counter to their initiative with the Arabic states over the past two to three years which has literally resolved around precisely this issue (and other ter. disputes with armed factions).

Unless there's a pact between Saudi and Iran behind closed doors, with one or two more Arab states, the role (beyond well known finance and logistics/political support going back decades) of Iran will be overblown within the western media.

And, as mad as it sounds, if you want to put Iranian influence massively into the picture, then it isn't insane to consider an understanding with Iran/Saudi/Iraq etc. Tacit, hedging, rather than overt. A completely new prism indeed. Could Saudi accept normalization (playing US off China, etc, without certain conditions)? Iran/Israel in Syria. Perhaps a general test of the newly emerging Arabic bloc. That sounds a bit insane to me, but for Iran to give the order, so to speak, it would have to be something like that. More broad than people are allowing for.

 

[calodo2003]

You have to figure that Bibi is on the IDF’s back demanding retaliatory action.

Wait a second. I thought the IDF was woke.

 

[Raoul]

My read was arrogance, that they believe they can roll in like in 2006 and minimise civilian casualties. Truly hope this is not the case. He didn’t mention artillery or mlrs once, or cluster munitions.

Was your read simply that he’s a liar and failed to mention this because he didn’t want to?

I don't think it was arrogance. They know the terrain and are more than capable of going in. His video, and many like it on CNN and other outlets, is to galvanize pro-Israel sentiment prior to the invasion to preemptively mitigate negative press once the inevitable controversies of Israeli strikes killing civilians.

 

[calodo2003]

People seem to forget the Palestinian response to the Ukrainian war (Ukraine's response to the invasion). They literally said, and you can go back and find the quotes, "what is the point of us going through peace talks that go nowhere when Ukraine can receive the support it receives and might actually get somewhere". They took it as a model.

The problem with the Iranian thing, not in money or guns, which goes back as many years as you want, but in "do this here now" style, is that it just goes counter to their initiative with the Arabic states over the past two to three years which has literally resolved around precisely this issue (and other ter. disputes with armed factions).

History doesn’t happen until it happens.

There was a failure by the West after ‘91 to continue to look at geopolitics & military affairs through a Cold War lens, Condolezza Rice springs quickly to mind. 9.11 happened & we had to adapt quickly & start catching up to reality.

We could be at an inflection point where what we know of anticipated moves & ideology of Hamas et al is yesterday’s news & catching up is needed. I feel we pretty much are. This is most definitely Israel’s 9.11, we will see how they respond in the long run.

 

[owlo]

I'm not attempting to draw a parallell between the IDF and Russia, it wouldn't really matter. What constitutes terror is very influenced by ideological motivations, often more than the actual actions, is more what I'm getting at. It's often said terrorism by definition has to be by non-state actors, but this qualifier is often dropped if we really want to call something terrorism and that point stands in the way. It's pretty useless, anyway. Several countries recognize Palestine as a state, and Hamas is the government. This was clearly a military operation, so can e.g. Brazil say that the attack on the civilians attending the music festival was terrorism? Maybe, maybe not, but calling it terrorism or something else doesn't impact what actually happened. Likewise, Israel's response is going to be what it's going to be, some will call it state terrorism and others won't. It won't change the tactics used or who dies or lives.

The eu statement is focusing on the Wagner group and other proxies because they can be added to the terror list, while Russia can't under the current rules. The statement is pretty clear on the fact that it includes the Russian army among the terrorists.

I thibk I understand what your saying and tend to agree, that political actors will Always define things to their own ends so it doesn’t really matter anyway.

I guess I just meant in a purist/academic sense; if you declare war and your aim is to kill the enemy and achieve your objectives, it’s not terrorism. If your aim is to kill and cause terror, it is.

You’re right in that neither side sees their own actions as terror, and the other side does. And it’s up to each individual to decide wherever they stand. i just believed as above.

You have to figure that Bibi is on the IDF’s back demanding retaliatory action.

I think if this goes tits up, bibi is done. He has a chance to act like a statesman for once and not kill thousands, yet he’s decided to act even more harebrained than hamas.

 

[neverdie]

9.11

that is what put this thing on the backburner for 20 years, no question. US wasn't in the mood to tell Israel how to do anything during that period. The world basically forgot about it.

 

[owlo]

I don't think it was arrogance. They know the terrain and are more than capable of going in. His video, and many like it on CNN and other outlets, is to galvanize pro-Israel sentiment prior to the invasion to preemptively mitigate negative press once the inevitable controversies of Israeli strikes killing civilians.

Hope you’re right.

 

[neverdie]

This is most definitely Israel’s 9.11, we will see how they respond in the long run.

They're limited. Without some arrangement, two states, there is nothing to be done. Look the economic/political trajectory of that region and you see how isolated Israel is for the first time, really, in decades. For normalization, they need a two-state solution. Otherwise this just comes back again and again. I.e., the AL can choose between BRICS, and US/EU. This hasn't been true since the USSR days and it's even more tangible now than then owing to economic rise throughout that period across the region.

 

[Pintu]

I don't think it was arrogance. They know the terrain and are more than capable of going in. His video, and many like it on CNN and other outlets, is to galvanize pro-Israel sentiment prior to the invasion to preemptively mitigate negative press once the inevitable controversies of Israeli strikes killing civilians.

You might be right about this and it could very well apply to an extended (in time) large scale Air operation without a terrestrial invasion…

 

[calodo2003]

Don’t see any possible way an air campaign only would cause any real degradation to Hamas’ ability to wage terror. The Balkans were a perfect location to just have an air campaign & to achieve demonstrable results. Gaza is the worst possible scenario for such.
It demands boots on the ground, but it would be a meat grinder.

Don’t envy Israel one bit.

 

[neverdie]

Don’t see any possible way an air campaign only would cause any real degradation to Hamas’ ability to wage terror. The Balkans were a perfect location to just have an air campaign & to achieve demonstrable results. Gaza is the worst possible scenario for such.
It demands boots on the ground, but it would be a meat grinder.

Don’t envy Israel one bit.

To route Hamas, you'd have to destroy Gaza entirely. People, not most here, but on twitter or whatever, don't seem to understand that. They left it after the second intifada because it was a disaster (with Hezbollah situation also forcing it to a close). And no real solution to it since.

Given the concentration, most densely populated area on the planet, in terms of people per square mile, it would be like Stalingrad on a much more limited (numerical) scale. No easy way out once you go in.

 

[Stack]

Its all so incredibly depressing on so many levels.

 

[Pintu]

Don’t see any possible way an air campaign only would cause any real degradation to Hamas’ ability to wage terror. The Balkans were a perfect location to just have an air campaign & to achieve demonstrable results. Gaza is the worst possible scenario for such.
It demands boots on the ground, but it would be a meat grinder.

Don’t envy Israel one bit.

It’s not Hamas’ ability… it’s about revenge and it’s long term thinking.

Months of bombardements… The ruins, the devastation and the collective punishment could end up frustrating the population enough for it to cause some civil war in Gaza. Terror sects and other militias in Gaza would take care of each other…

Not saying I wish any of this but I’d expect it to be on Bibi’s table.

 

[neverdie]

could end up frustrating the population enough for it to cause some civil war in Gaza. Terror sects and other militias in Gaza would take care of each other…

History tells us other. It has been far worse in the past. Gaza is in a kind of perpetual civil war (not just with the Israelis). But if/when Israel goes in, Hamas/Fatah/IJ, etc., won't turn on each other (they'll wait until it's over as they've always done).

Arguably no other civillian population more used to bombardment than that of Gaza (maybe Afghan tribes?). They won't turn on each other even if there's serious disagreement surrounding the moves made by Hamas.

 

[Rhyme Animal]

I see Rachel Riley is showing her true colours on Twitter / X again…

 

[neverdie]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ation-across-globe-for-hamas-attack-on-israel

https://www.malaysiasun.com/


For a generally perfect understanding of the changing world order, particularly in the Mid East, see how this is reported in the West and then in the East eiyh rach considering the response of the other (West to East and East to West). West takes the Iranian and various mad celebratory images, as typically happens when these things kick off, whereas East is looking at it entirely through the prism of the Arab League more broadly. Their statement is worth reading:

From Malaysiansun:

Arab League Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul Gheit had a different view. "Israel's continued implementation of violent and extremist policies is a time bomb depriving the region of any serious opportunity for stability in the foreseeable future," he said Saturday on behalf of the GCC's 22-member states: Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, the Palestinian Authority, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates and Yemen.

It's just too simplistic to cite Iran (this time).

From the Guardian:

The most emphatic support for Hamas came from Iran, which has long supported the militant movement.

“Iran supports the legitimate defence of the Palestinian nation,” President Ebrahim Raisi said, according to state television. Raisi praised the “resistance” efforts of both Hamas and Islamic Jihad and declared: “The Zionist regime and its supporters are responsible for endangering the security of nations in the region, and they must be held accountable in this matter.”

Ignoring the standard "zionist regime" template Iran uses in every statement, even if it has nothing to do with Israel, they're just reiterating precisely what is AL orthodoxy now.

 

[Pintu]

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[neverdie]

Inevitable attempt, lazy, to try and make this a Russian affair in any way whatsoever (nothing directly to do with the Ukrainian war).

Trump was as anti-Iran as they come (remember the strike) and put the embassy in Jerusalem. It's a pointless US-centric point scoring story. If anything, Trump's legacy here is that he gave the Israeli far-right too much (as stated by some Israeli centrists) by making symbolic moves which violated international law and made a bad situation worse.

It's a rare occasion where you'd almost say America doesn't really have anything to do with it barring background attempts at normalization which the AL wants, also, but with a different compromise: iron-clad two-state solution as necessity. And, except for the same background state sponsoring and regional geopolitical stuff, Russia/China/EU etc., are also not directly involved here. It's an internal Palestinian/Israeli pressure cooker situation that has been coming for twenty years. The major difference here is that Russia has a special relationship with Israel owing historical events, China is almost entirely out of the picture, unless you want to go deeper than you have to, whereas the US/EU have supported Israel under the auspice of the war on terror when it, two state solution, was nowhere near the agenda. US moved two ships in symbolic movement (gesture) because it sort of had to. Russia/China/etc., have no such obligations. All three, at any rate, Russia/US/China are calling for an immediate ceasefire just with different words.

 

[Pintu]

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[That_Bloke]

History doesn’t happen until it happens.

There was a failure by the West after ‘91 to continue to look at geopolitics & military affairs through a Cold War lens, Condolezza Rice springs quickly to mind. 9.11 happened & we had to adapt quickly & start catching up to reality.

We could be at an inflection point where what we know of anticipated moves & ideology of Hamas et al is yesterday’s news & catching up is needed. I feel we pretty much are. This is most definitely Israel’s 9.11, we will see how they respond in the long run.

With violence. Which will lead to even more violence.

Shocking attacks and shocking amount of civilian casualties but it was absolutely bound to happen at some point. Unless both parties agree on a two states solution (fat chance), this conflict will never end.

 

[Raoul]

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[Sir Matt]

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[That_Bloke]

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That's what you get when you put people's back to the wall. There's only so much despair one can put up with. Netanyahu has been Israel's blight for decades and became absolutely unhinged these last four-five years, enabling the extremists on both sides to become even more unhinged.

The tragic thing is that, as always, only innocents and normal folks pay the price.

 

[Sweet Square]

Was talking about the barbarism aspect.

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[Wibble]

A Jewish person showing support for Israel after an attack like this? Whoever heard of such a thing?

 

[Wibble]

Without getting into the history and various rights and wrong of the situation a few things are fairly clear.

Netanyahu and his far right government have fecked up both in terms of intelligence and their aggressive stance since taking government.

That said the Hamas action, general hatred of Israel and Judaism aside, is primarily motivated by preventing normalisation of relations between Israel and Saudi (which Saudi would very much like) with Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran the prime movers to prevent this for their own common and differing objectives.

It will be "interesting" to see how this plays our as Saudi and UAE etc will have to appear to support Hamas/the Palestinians but it is uncertain how much actual support they will give and also uncertain what they will do if Israel razes Gaza rather than just turn the utilities off and engage in more "surgical" military action.

Not going to be good either way.

 

[amolbhatia50k]

Is there any source caftards would recommend who can give a balanced view of this situation? As, in India all our mainstream media are pro Israel as they, like our government, hate everything Muslim anyway.