Leicester owner promises £180m investment

[GBBQ]

Why? They've done it more than once. I don't get why the logic among English clubs is you have to spend £100m to get anyone decent in.

When exactly? last season they were nearly relegated. They haven't threatened the top 4 in a long, long time prior to this season. In terms of players bought they clearly did well with Mahrez, vardy and Kante, but outside this they have more maximised potential of average to good players. Do you think Simpson, Drinkwater, Morgan, Huth will be snapped up by Barcelona?

Show me a team in the premier league who has maintained top 4 status (let alone title winning form) on a small budget? In the past 4 years Chelsea and United dropped out of the top 4 the season after winning the league, even with vast resources its hard to maintain that type of form.

Expecting to continue picking up bargains isn't sustainable and even if they pick up some great players they could easily face an injury crisis with the increased games and travelling. History suggests this will be a one off with the established elite coming back strong.

I'm not saying this is a great way for the league to be but being realistically they will struggle.

 

[Cooksen]

Expecting to continue picking up bargains isn't sustainable and even if they pick up some great players they could easily face an injury crisis with the increased games and travelling. History suggests this will be a one off with the established elite coming back strong.

We did the same thing of picking up bargins imo and it cost us big time in the end.

They will win the title but next season they will suddenly become the hunted and the hunters will be going in with a lot more firepower.

 

[amolbhatia50k]

6-8th next season at best IMO.

 

[InfiniteBoredom]

I'm predicting 10th. Mahrez will surely leave, Vardy a toss-up, but leaning towards leaving as well, ditto Kante. All that loss of key personnel+ the CL group stage will take its toll on their squad, even with investments. Wouldn't be surprised if they are near the relegation spots at some points.

 

[Jagga7]

If this comes to fruition. The next Leeds United? Liquidation in 10 years? Possibly!

 

[Samid]

As evidenced by Liverpool, stastical scouting don't always work.

Liverpool have been paying daft money for players that don't fit their playing style. £50m+ for Benteke, Lambert and Balotelli is crap business. I'm not sure what kind of statistical scouting they've been doing but it's rather pointless if purchased players aren't suited for the philosophy.

Leicester needed an engine in midfield, they signed Kante. They needed bravery and determination in defence, they signed Huth. They needed aggression at top, they signed Okazaki. In January they signed Demarai Gray, a pacy and skillful winger. Who knows, maybe he is seen as an ideal Mahrez replacement? Leicester have been doing very smart business and it's very harsh to compare them with Liverpool.

 

[Samid]

Just out of curiosity is this fact or an assumption based on the players they found this season? Just historically I don't recall Leicester being a treasure trove of great players (like say Southampton has been in recent years).

Southampton have developed players through their academy, Leicester are buying players with impressive stats and important attributes from the top 5 leagues in Europe. Statistical scouting is a newish phenomenon so obviously it will take some time before any team becomes a treasure trove of great players as a result of it. Couple of articles:

The Science of scouting: Changes (article from 2014 explaining why longitudinal data is more effective than traditional scouting)

Leicester’s key to success is scientific attention to detail, efficient gameplan, a scouting network and great team ethic

 

[GBBQ]

Southampton have developed players through their academy, Leicester are buying players with impressive stats and important attributes from the top 5 leagues in Europe. Statistical scouting is a newish phenomenon so obviously it will take some time before any team becomes a treasure trove of great players as a result of it. Couple of articles:

The Science of scouting: Changes (article from 2014 explaining why longitudinal data is more effective than traditional scouting)

Leicester’s key to success is scientific attention to detail, efficient gameplan, a scouting network and great team ethic

Cheers for that, very interesting articles. A great scouting team can do wonders but I still think they will need a lot more than that to remain competitive. Le havre are unlikely to have sold Mahrez for so little to a Premier league winner entering the CL, teams are going to start adding on a few million when Leicester come sniffing. There's many things scouting a player wont tell you and @unitedbhoy did a great post earlier in the thread on this. Finally a team is only as good as its manager allows them to be (Moyes and LVG are prime examples of how good players can be stunted). If Ranieri is poached then you could end up with the team being mishandled. Its a very specific style of route one football that has got them in this position.

Again I am not defending the big spenders of the league or suggesting that money should equal success. But Leicester's method leaves a lot less room for error. Each player has to maximise their potential as every penny needs to be invested wisely. Compare that to Chelsea, United, City etc. They have a bad season as a team or a big money signing underperforms and its written off as a blip mostly. Huge investment of proven players follows and normal service resumes. the odds are hugely against Leicester going on to do this on a regular basis.

 

[Pexbo]

They didn't stumble upon those players by chance, their scouting system is second to none. Kante was statistically the best ball winner in Europe last season. They use actual stats and data, not like United who throw money left right centre without putting too much thought in it.

They've hit a few gems this season and the Stars have aligned. Leicester's scouting system being "second to none" is pure hubris.

 

[SambaBoy]

I honestly think their main concern in the summer should be their defence.

Wes Morgan (32) and Robert Huth (32 start of next season) have been outstanding this season, no doubt about it, but it's going to be seriously unlikely for them to maintain that level of form next season.

Have either of those 2 picked up any sort of mid-term injury?

I say a lot of Leicester's success this season can be attributed by their steady back 4. In my opinion, this is the most important thing for a team to achieve domestic success.

Now, the chances of Danny Simpson, Wes Morgan, Robert Huth and Fuchs not picking up a long term injury next season is very unlikely, as is the chances of them carrying on the same form.

I reckon they should be looking to get a good CB and RB.

A lot of talk out of Leicester is that their form this season is due to the feel good atmosphere in the camp - having such a tight-knit group of players.

It will be interesting to see how new signings will integrate and whether this disrupts the atmosphere.

They brought in Daniel Amartey in January who is supposed to be highly rated and is young. He could come in for Morgan or Huth if they cannot replicate their form next season. Also Kramaric was supposed to be a very a talented striker who was also followed by Chelsea but he hasn't impressed so far, however he's still young and out on loan I believe.

 

[KM]

Liverpool have been paying daft money for players that don't fit their playing style. £50m+ for Benteke, Lambert and Balotelli is crap business. I'm not sure what kind of statistical scouting they've been doing but it's rather pointless if purchased players aren't suited for the philosophy.

Leicester needed an engine in midfield, they signed Kante. They needed bravery and determination in defence, they signed Huth. They needed aggression at top, they signed Okazaki. In January they signed Demarai Gray, a pacy and skillful winger. Who knows, maybe he is seen as an ideal Mahrez replacement? Leicester have been doing very smart business and it's very harsh to compare them with Liverpool.

Not talking about these signings, but signings made by Comoilli which were based on Moneyball(Henderson, Downing and Charlie Adam).
http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/liverpool-apply-methods-baseball-scout-3315138 and then there's this http://metro.co.uk/2016/04/02/liver...computer-to-snub-sadio-mane-transfer-5790626/

No denying that Leicester have struck gold in Mahrez, Kante and Vardy but that's not to say that statistical scouting is always better.

 

[Earthquake]

Not talking about these signings, but signings made by Comoilli which were based on Moneyball(Henderson, Downing and Charlie Adam).
http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/liverpool-apply-methods-baseball-scout-3315138 and then there's this http://metro.co.uk/2016/04/02/liver...computer-to-snub-sadio-mane-transfer-5790626/

No denying that Leicester have struck gold in Mahrez, Kante and Vardy but that's not to say that statistical scouting is always better.

Aye statistics don't always work, but Liverpool are a bad example to use for this as they and their scouting network are complete feckwits.

 

[Eboue]

Not talking about these signings, but signings made by Comoilli which were based on Moneyball(Henderson, Downing and Charlie Adam).
http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/liverpool-apply-methods-baseball-scout-3315138 and then there's this http://metro.co.uk/2016/04/02/liver...computer-to-snub-sadio-mane-transfer-5790626/

No denying that Leicester have struck gold in Mahrez, Kante and Vardy but that's not to say that statistical scouting is always better.

"based on moneyball" isn't a thing. And whoever came up with that line doesn't understand what Moneyball was about. It's not about stats, it's about exploiting market inefficiencies.

 

[Kentonio]

Wow, I'd completely forgotten about starting this thread. How fecking Mystic Meg am I?

 

[golden_blunder]

Investing in beer and doughnuts

 

[The Stain]

City and Leicester owe all their success to one man. That's right, Sven Göran Eriksson.

 

[Globule]

This is Leicester's one season. After this year the fairytale will end. They'll have CL next season, which will really undermine their biggest strength this year - being able to essentially play the same 11 week after week. They'll finish top 8 at absolute best next year.

Feel free to quote me on this in May 2017.

 

[GBBQ]

This is Leicester's one season. After this year the fairytale will end. They'll have CL next season, which will really undermine their biggest strength this year - being able to essentially play the same 11 week after week. They'll finish top 8 at absolute best next year.

Feel free to quote me on this in May 2017.

Well technically they will finish top 8 this season as well!

 

[Globule]

Well technically they will finish top 8 this season as well!

Thank you for highlighting how vague my prediction was. I was hedging my bets so I could save face if anyone did quote me next year.

 

[GBBQ]

Thank you for highlighting how vague my prediction was. I was hedging my bets so I could save face if anyone did quote me next year.

Haha Leicester do back to back title wins:

Told You!

 

[Globule]

Haha Leicester do back to back title wins:

And I would have got away with it if it wasn't for that pesky GBBQ.

What I actually meant to say was 8th is the best they'll achieve next season. I think they'll come crashing back to earth, even if they do manage to keep hold of Ranieri, Marhez, Vardy and Kante.

 

[Successful]

I think they could buy stuff like Delph from City (totally wasted career and buying for the sake of buying by City).

Ranieri is scared to death on what to do next. He's found a secret formula and if you take away one piece his card house will fall together. There's NO WAY he will be able to find similar players with that sort of connection and linking up. That's why he's keeping Inler on the bench as some sort of mascot. It's probably all down to superstition now.

These sort of things happens from time to time - but the freakish thing is it happened to so many players at the same time. If you just stay sober for a while and look at the material many of those guys were very promising, went under the radar for a while and popped up at the same time. Players like Simpson, Drinkwater from our academy are not exactly new to top football. Same goes for Huth and Schmeichel. I also think a guy like Albrighton should have been seen earlier in his career, but staying at Villa is not the best choice you could do in your life. Throw an asian guy with bulldog mentality into the mix and you're almost guaranteed success. In hindsight it all makes sense.

 

[Hammerfell]

This is Leicester's one season. After this year the fairytale will end. They'll have CL next season, which will really undermine their biggest strength this year - being able to essentially play the same 11 week after week. They'll finish top 8 at absolute best next year.

Feel free to quote me on this in May 2017.

That's hardly a shocking prediction, not really quote worthy.

 

[Successful]

That's hardly a shocking prediction, not really quote worthy.

Relegated!

Vardy to Real Madrid, Marezh to City, Morgan to Man United.

How's that for a qoute?

 

[Boycott]

It was always Leicester's ambition to move up the league as you can see from the words of the owner and Ranieri when he arrived: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/fo...r-plans-Foxes-hunting-Europa-League-spot.html

Yes no one would have predicted them to be top in April and more or less guaranteed a place in next season's Champions League but they've taken advantage of the usual teams faltering and kept their belief and seasonal run going. Under Pearson they picked up 22/27 points at the end to finish 14th. Momentum was there and their early season start where they scored plenty but also conceded many was based on that.

Many teams have started the campaign on fire, reached October/November nicely near the top end of the table and seemingly in no worries of relegation which their main aim was to avoid. It would have been understandable if they took their foot off the gas and it wouldn't have been surprising if they entered free-fall as the goals dried up and they were still leaky. It's happened to other teams. This season Palace were 5th at Christmas and now languishing near the bottom.

This is where Ranieri comes in. He didn't think too far ahead when they still hadn't hit the 40 point mark. That was priority one, so his players were drilled to keep going. Once they hit the 40 point mark, he didn't say that's job done and watch his players drift, nor did he dream about CL qualification at that point. The next stage was to get through the coming months with the same level of commitment which would have seen them get Europa League at the least. Now they've comfortably got that in the bank and with CL football all but guaranteed, this is the final push. Ranieri's leadership shows flexibility and that you can break through ceilings, not just hit them and fall down.

 

[MyOnlySolskjaer]

Vardy will stay but if they cling onto Kante and Mahrez they could really build something.

 

[Earthquake]

It was always Leicester's ambition to move up the league as you can see from the words of the owner and Ranieri when he arrived: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/fo...r-plans-Foxes-hunting-Europa-League-spot.html

Yes no one would have predicted them to be top in April and more or less guaranteed a place in next season's Champions League but they've taken advantage of the usual teams faltering and kept their belief and seasonal run going. Under Pearson they picked up 22/27 points at the end to finish 14th. Momentum was there and their early season start where they scored plenty but also conceded many was based on that.

Many teams have started the campaign on fire, reached October/November nicely near the top end of the table and seemingly in no worries of relegation which their main aim was to avoid. It would have been understandable if they took their foot off the gas and it wouldn't have been surprising if they entered free-fall as the goals dried up and they were still leaky. It's happened to other teams. This season Palace were 5th at Christmas and now languishing near the bottom.

This is where Ranieri comes in. He didn't think too far ahead when they still hadn't hit the 40 point mark. That was priority one, so his players were drilled to keep going. Once they hit the 40 point mark, he didn't say that's job done and watch his players drift, nor did he dream about CL qualification at that point. The next stage was to get through the coming months with the same level of commitment which would have seen them get Europa League at the least. Now they've comfortably got that in the bank and with CL football all but guaranteed, this is the final push. Ranieri's leadership shows flexibility and that you can break through ceilings, not just hit them and fall down.

Heh, that article, remember when everyone thought losing Cambiasso was going to be a massive blow?

 

[Boycott]

Heh, that article, remember when everyone thought losing Cambiasso was going to be a massive blow?

He was really good for them last season. I think had he stayed he would have ended up benched like Inler as while he's got more quality in possession he doesn't have the legs to be snapping around like Kante/Drinkwater do.

 

[rcoobc]

Remember when Vardy was a player who had had one good game... against us.

 

[RedPnutz]

Didn't Fergie once say that it was always difficult to win the league the second time?

Statistically speaking it would be tough and the odds are against them if you consider mean reversion. However let's not write them off totally.

If I was Leicester I would probably go easy on the CL but focus on the league. Though that's counterintuitive since a cup competition can serve up more randomness.

 

[Sarni]

Didn't Fergie once say that it was always difficult to win the league the second time?

Statistically speaking it would be tough and the odds are against them if you consider mean reversion. However let's not write them off totally.

If I was Leicester I would probably go easy on the CL but focus on the league. Though that's counterintuitive since a cup competition can serve up more randomness.

I'd go full throttle for CL actually. This will be their first appearance and may be the last in a while as they're underpowered financially compared to the rest of the league. If they can get out of group stages and have some huge European nights then it'd be something to remember. Title they might already win this year.

 

[UweBein]

Remember when Vardy was a player who had had one good game... against us.

To be fair, he was always a player who gave everything on the pitch. Looking at it that way you could say that a successful period was only a question of time.

Didn't Fergie once say that it was always difficult to win the league the second time?
Statistically speaking it would be tough and the odds are against them if you consider mean reversion. However let's not write them off totally.
If I was Leicester I would probably go easy on the CL but focus on the league. Though that's counterintuitive since a cup competition can serve up more randomness.

Once? He must have said it dozen of times. At least every time Arsenal won the league during his reign and the first time Mourinho won the league. But I always had the impression he was just saying it to have a go at his counterparts.

 

[RedPnutz]

I'd go full throttle for CL actually. This will be their first appearance and may be the last in a while as they're underpowered financially compared to the rest of the league. If they can get out of group stages and have some huge European nights then it'd be something to remember. Title they might already win this year.

True there is that perspective as well.

 

[UweBein]

I don't think going for the CL will be rewarded with any merit since all the first timers struggle a lot in the CL. Why should they do better than PSG or City in their first CL season?

 

[Lurpak99]

Didn't Fergie once say that it was always difficult to win the league the second time?

Well historically very few clubs have managed to defend their title.

Preston: 1889-1890
Aston Villa: 1896-1897, 1899-1900
The Wednesday/Sheffield Wednesday: 1903-1904, 1929-1930
Liverpool: 1922-1923, 1976-1977, 1979-1980, 1982-1984*
Huddersfield: 1924-1926*
Arsenal: 1933-1935*
Portsmouth: 1949-1950
Manchester United: 1956-1957, 1993-1994, 1996-1997, 1999-2001*, 2007-2009*
Wolves: 1958-1959
Chelsea: 2005-2006

*Three-in-a-row

 

[Lurpak99]

I was wondering if Ranieri could be tempted to leave Leicester for the Italy job in the summer?

 

[Welsh Wonder]

I was wondering if Ranieri could be tempted to leave Leicester for the Italy job in the summer?

I think he'd like a crack at the CL with Leicester first.

 

[VorZakone]

Leicester in the CL...I still can't quite imagine it. I can only assume they'll lose players and get spanked.

 

[Moston_Lad]

Backing them to get to the semi final of the CL next season.

 

[Zarlak]

Nah, they're the next QPR, heard it all before. When Fulham came up, al Fayed was going to make them the "Manchester United of the South". £180m? Sorry, that's peanuts these days.

Hehe, this went well.