North Korea

Cheimoon

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That will be nonsense. They’ll almost certainly be one of the biggest spenders, if not the biggest, on military as a percentage of GDP though. Still won’t be anywhere near to almost all though. Maybe a fifth at most? Probably fluctuates quite a bit too. Don’t forget they still provide things like free healthcare + education including university
I don't what the basis for that claim may have been, but it might be possible if the military has a huge hold in society. Like in Iran, where the Revolutionary Guard basically owns or controls large parts of Iran's economy. Without context, it might then be the case that an ungodly percentage of Iran's government expenditures go towards the Revolutionary Guard - but relatively little of that would actually be for defense purposes.

No idea how that.mighy apply to North Korea, but I wouldn't be surprised is the military similarly pervades society.
Dead again?
What's happened?
 

GiddyUp

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I don't what the basis for that claim may have been, but it might be possible if the military has a huge hold in society. Like in Iran, where the Revolutionary Guard basically owns or controls large parts of Iran's economy. Without context, it might then be the case that an ungodly percentage of Iran's government expenditures go towards the Revolutionary Guard - but relatively little of that would actually be for defense purposes.

No idea how that.mighy apply to North Korea, but I wouldn't be surprised is the military similarly pervades society.

What's happened?
Coma, dead or eaten by the sister. Too early to tell.
 

Olly Gunnar Solskjær

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I see there was another little speech from dear leader earlier, with chants of "We love you" from his ****.

Edit: Oops meant to post this in the Trump thread.
 

Chairman Woodie

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That's poor from the BBC. There is no really no excuse. As the tweeter notes, the clue is in the footage.

I see similar confusion in other fields by people who should know better.

 
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golden_blunder

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What a lovely big missile that is. Apparently it can reach 1/2 of the US and capable of reaching all of Europe. Now looking to see if there is a way for it to carry multiple nuclear warheads. Fukin hell!

lots of shit has now happened in our lifetime that I didn’t think would, im beginning to think that nuclear warfare might be another to tick off before we all part this earth.

but hey, at least the survivors are used to wearing masks now. Oh..

“fake news! That’s not a mushroom cloud!”
“more people die every year from the flu than nuclear fallout!”
“You can’t force me to stay in my bunker for 6 months! It’s against my human rights”
“Wearing a mask is more dangerous than breathing in radiation!”
“There is no radiation! Can you see any?”
Trump: “I had radiation but now thanks to Regeneron; a brilliant drug by the way, American drug, Regeneron. I’m feeling great! Ready to lead America into this new war. By the way our troops, the best, will have nothing but the best gear. They will also have free access to Regeneron, so you know they can recover too. Just like me. 3 days.. the doctors look at me in amazement and ask how do you do it Mr President?”
 

FireballXL5

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I reckon if any superpower thought for one second that a missile launch was imminent, North Korea would be wiped off the map.
 

sun_tzu

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The North Korea relationship will be interesting if Biden does win (and trump does not stage a coup)
Not sure how he would handle it (though probably not talking about his weapon being bigger than rocketmans)
Would certainly expect NK to push the envelope very early into a Biden presidency to see what they can get - could all spiral out very quickly (though hopefully not)
 

sun_tzu

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I reckon if any superpower thought for one second that a missile launch was imminent, North Korea would be wiped off the map.
Im not sure - I mean how do you do that without hurting South Korea - let alone what the reactions will be from China / Russia given their proximity and the likely humanitarian impact of a collapsed NK state on their doorstep
And lets be blunt NK are not likley to launch their missiles at China or Russia so to them the biggest threat is the humanitarian issues (likley mass migrations due to starvation) and potentially America trying to establish a military presence on their border
Geo-politically I find it hard to imagine that at least 2 of the security council five would sanction military action and I doubt they would sit by and let America take unilateral action
 

SirAF

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Im not sure - I mean how do you do that without hurting South Korea - let alone what the reactions will be from China / Russia given their proximity and the likely humanitarian impact of a collapsed NK state on their doorstep
And lets be blunt NK are not likley to launch their missiles at China or Russia so to them the biggest threat is the humanitarian issues (likley mass migrations due to starvation) and potentially America trying to establish a military presence on their border
Geo-politically I find it hard to imagine that at least 2 of the security council five would sanction military action and I doubt they would sit by and let America take unilateral action
I think it would be fair to say that NK are not going to launch anything at all - because they know the repercussions would be so severe right? NK are not going to be "wiped off the map" before they have done anything, but *if* they lobbed a missile into Europe or the US then surely they would be toast before Kim has time to swallow his morning burger?
 

sun_tzu

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I think it would be fair to say that NK are not going to launch anything at all - because they know the repercussions would be so severe right? NK are not going to be "wiped off the map" before they have done anything, but *if* they lobbed a missile into Europe or the US then surely they would be toast before Kim has time to swallow his morning burger?
I could see a retaliatory strike yes - provided it was targeted at the regime - I could see people pushing for regime change and succeeding
And I could see China quickly assisting in putting in place a pro chinese regime and telling the USA stay out of it
If the USA didnt agree to that then I dont know how bad it would go
If the USA Nuked several cities its hard to see how that wouldnt impact Russia and China (nuclear fallout etc and as i say probably a massive humanitarian crisis) and frankly i dont see them both being ok with that
 

Smores

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I could see a retaliatory strike yes - provided it was targeted at the regime - I could see people pushing for regime change and succeeding
And I could see China quickly assisting in putting in place a pro chinese regime and telling the USA stay out of it
If the USA didnt agree to that then I dont know how bad it would go
If the USA Nuked several cities its hard to see how that wouldnt impact Russia and China (nuclear fallout etc and as i say probably a massive humanitarian crisis) and frankly i dont see them both being ok with that
As you say if the situation became untenable China would have boots on the ground very quickly and that would be the end of the NK regime. They won't allow other parties to act first but they won't be forced into it either.

I expect China have full sight of the regimes actions and have plans to strike first should NK ever act.
 

sun_tzu

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As you say if the situation became untenable China would have boots on the ground very quickly and that would be the end of the NK regime. They won't allow other parties to act first but they won't be forced into it either.

I expect China have full sight of the regimes actions and have plans to strike first should NK ever act.
indeed - ultimately they would be seeking to ensure NK remains a buffer state under chinese influence rather than risk a united korea that allows usa militray bases ... the key question will be would the USA allow that and what happens if USA strikes target NK nuclear sites after the chinese have secured them - that could escalate very quickly
 

The Firestarter

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NK does not have any first strike capability so anything they have can only be used as a deterrent. They have gone for mobile launchers first which is smart, since they can be concealed much more easily than the other installations (except SLBMs). But, we of course do not know if their ICBMs are already operational or still elaborate mockups.
 

sun_tzu

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NK does not have any first strike capability so anything they have can only be used as a deterrent. They have gone for mobile launchers first which is smart, since they can be concealed much more easily than the other installations (except SLBMs). But, we of course do not know if their ICBMs are already operational or still elaborate mockups.
if its a fully operational death star Id expect a test soon... my gut feel is just after the USA election (hopefully poping int into the ocean rather than a full on alderan
Either Trump is defeated by a large margin and accepts the defeat so they would probably feel safer doing it during the lame duck session plus it would put them at the top of bidens inbox when he takes over
Or Trump looses and contests the election at which point the political system will be so distracted in America that again its the perfect time to do it knowing a response is unlikely till they have sorted out the election
perhaps if trump wins an uncontested election then the equation changes but from the polls that seems very unlikely

"Constitution Day" 27th December would be my guess
 
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Maagge

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indeed - ultimately they would be seeking to ensure NK remains a buffer state under chinese influence rather than risk a united korea that allows usa militray bases ... the key question will be would the USA allow that and what happens if USA strikes target NK nuclear sites after the chinese have secured them - that could escalate very quickly
If the Koreas were to seriously consider reuniting, surely that would come with extensive negotiations, part of which would be a rock-hard clause about banning foreign powers from having a military presence in the united country. That would work for the US and China, I'd think.

In the meantime, I agree that North Korea is very unlikely to go nuts due to whichever US president. China wouldn't want the chaos and uncertainty across the border, the US wouldn't want it cause they can't guarantee that there'd be no deaths and damage on American soil, and NK know they'd be wiped off the map.
 

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Just saw it and it's brilliant and absurd, just like Mads Brüggers two previous films: The Red Chapel and The Ambassador.

The first film has him leading a danish cultural exchange with North Korea. The danish "culture" he brings to NK is obviously just bullshit, but he fakes it for a long time. Obviously it pisses NK off in the end.


The Ambassador has him infiltrating the diamond trade in Congo through buying a fake diplomatic passport from a Nobel Peace Prize winner. Obviously shows how horrible the industry is both for Congo and its people, but it's also absurd on a level which makes it entertaining in a way.

 

Foxbatt

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If the Koreas were to seriously consider reuniting, surely that would come with extensive negotiations, part of which would be a rock-hard clause about banning foreign powers from having a military presence in the united country. That would work for the US and China, I'd think.

In the meantime, I agree that North Korea is very unlikely to go nuts due to whichever US president. China wouldn't want the chaos and uncertainty across the border, the US wouldn't want it cause they can't guarantee that there'd be no deaths and damage on American soil, and NK know they'd be wiped off the map.
The South Koreans do want peace on their peninsula. It is the Americans who are refusing to even let the South Koreans sign a peace treaty. The US is insisting that North Korea destroys its nuclear weapons before a peace treaty is signed. North Korea wants a peace treaty signed before destroying their weapons. If the South Koreans are willing to do that( And they are) I do not know what that has got to do with the USA? The North Koreans are willing not to have foreign troops in the Korean peninsula. The operational control of the South Korean forces is under the US in a war time. This is the other issue.
 

Chairman Woodie

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Interesting to see if North Korea tests the new liquid propellant missile that was paraded during the weekend. Hwasong-16?

History suggests not.

The Hwasong-13 and Hwasong-13 Mod-II were both paraded first but not tested. Where as Hwasong-14 and Hwasong-15 were tested and then paraded.
 

Sky1981

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I dont think a unified korea is on the horizon. Everyone involved would love to maintain status quo.

The chinese got their buffer
Americans got their excuses for being in korea
Kim jong un got their mini state

All this peace treaty talks is just lip service with each passing a very ilogical demand you know nothing would be agreed upon.
 

Chairman Woodie

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Yeah, North Korea's economy has been hit hard. The borders are closed and trade is almost at a standstill.

Yet the Won has gained almost 40% against the Yuan and 13% against the U.S Dollar in recent weeks. The North Koreans use all three currencies on a daily basis.

Presumably the Kim regime is limiting the amount of Won in circulation and Won credit, increasing its FX value.
 
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Cheimoon

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Yeah, North Korea's economy has been hit hard. The borders are closed and trade is almost at a standstill.

Yet the Won has gained almost 40% against the Yuan and 13% against the U.S Dollar in recent weeks. The North Koreans use all three currencies on a daily basis.

Presumably the Kim regime is limiting the amount of Won in circulation and Won credit, increasing it's FX value.
I can't read the full article, but I think I get the idea from the first few paragraphs. Weren't (some? all?) rural areas of North Korea already experiencing famines, or similar situations? That can't be getting better now. We might well hear about mass deaths due to the circumstances (not even COVID-19 itself) in a couple of years from now. (But I'm sure Kim Jong-Un is limiting his whisky intake in solidarity.)

I was surprised to see tourism mentioned as a significant economic factor though. I know visits are possible now, but I thought that was so limited that it could have any noticeable economic impact. I guess I'm wrong? Maybe I'm overlooking Chinese tourism?
 

Chairman Woodie

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I can't read the full article, but I think I get the idea from the first few paragraphs. Weren't (some? all?) rural areas of North Korea already experiencing famines, or similar situations? That can't be getting better now. We might well hear about mass deaths due to the circumstances (not even COVID-19 itself) in a couple of years from now. (But I'm sure Kim Jong-Un is limiting his whisky intake in solidarity.)

I was surprised to see tourism mentioned as a significant economic factor though. I know visits are possible now, but I thought that was so limited that it could have any noticeable economic impact. I guess I'm wrong? Maybe I'm overlooking Chinese tourism?
North Korea was hit by floods earlier in the year. Particularly in the rural areas. It has been a problem for years.

Beyond COVID itself, it certainly can't be easy for the North Koreans.

I presume the border closures and the absence of trade has resulted in the price of food rising. Especially imported foods.

Also, there is a risk with the strengthened Won. When the border reopens it could result in panic buying of FX collapsing the Won and bringing on hyperinflation.
 
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Cheimoon

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North Korea was hit by floods earlier in the year. Particularly in the rural areas. It has been a problem for years.

Beyond COVID itself, it certainly can't be easy for the North Koreans.

I presume the border closures and the absence of trade has resulted in the price of food rising. Especially imported foods.

Also, there is a risk with the strengthened Won. When the border reopens it could result in panic buying of FX collapsing the Won and bringing on hyperinflation.
Thanks. Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if mass deaths were (going to be) happening in the countryside due to famine...