Race for top 4 | Finito.

[MegadrivePerson]

now Chelsea and Liverpool are 7 points behind us (i.e. we got 2 games cushion). If tottenham loses 1 more game, we are 7 points above the 5th and we are in kinda safe situation.

Liverpool play Chelsea on the 21st too, so one or both teams will drop points then.

As of right now I think it will finish Arsenal, City, United, Newcastle.

 

[Ayoba]

I think our lack of squad depth will really hurt us as we move into the business end of the season. Liverpool will be strong once they have Gakpo, diaz, jota, firmino back.

 

[aganley]

I think our lack of squad depth will really hurt us as we move into the business end of the season. Liverpool will be strong once they have Gakpo, diaz, jota, firmino back.

That also depends on who we sign.

 

[Zed 101]

We are not even half way into the games yet, Arsenal will wobble, it depends on how they react, traditionally Arsenal have imploded following a bad result or 2, will be interesting when CL starts back up, I cannot really fault Arsenal right now but they look like a team in good form, need to see what they look like if their form drops off, we really need to sign a striker in January even as a rotation player.

 

[bosnian_red]

Win today and we open a 5 point gap to Spurs who are imploding and 7 to Liverpool who will be our main challenger IMO.

Home vs City and away vs Arsenal the next 2 where Liverpool have Brighton away and Chelsea at home, so the gap really could shrink right there. But we're in a strong position and if the gap is still 3 points to more to Liverpool at the 19 game mark, I'll be very confident. Not worried about Spurs. Newcastle will be hard to shake but we'll see how they do this month. January will be huge to determine if they keep up the first half or drop off a bit. Chelsea not a concern.

 

[erikcred]

As long as we don't take part in the annual top 4-is-lava game in the last 10 matches, we should be fine, probably get a comfortable third.

 

[bond19821982]

Win today and we open a 5 point gap to Spurs who are imploding and 7 to Liverpool who will be our main challenger IMO.

Home vs City and away vs Arsenal the next 2 where Liverpool have Brighton away and Chelsea at home, so the gap really could shrink right there. But we're in a strong position and if the gap is still 3 points to more to Liverpool at the 19 game mark, I'll be very confident. Not worried about Spurs. Newcastle will be hard to shake but we'll see how they do this month. January will be huge to determine if they keep up the first half or drop off a bit. Chelsea not a concern.

Think Newcastle will fall off at some point but one of Liverpool or Chelsea will catch up. We are yet to goto Liverpool , Newcastle, Spurs and Arsenal. At this point, it's as open as you can get.

 

[FrantikChicken]

80 pts being a legitimate challenge means Le Arse will have to be in relegation form for 15+ games out of remaining 22. You see that happening?

Meanwhile, if they were to get to 90 pts, that means 47 out of 66 = a leeway of 5 losses and 2 draws, top 4 pace rather than title winning form, while if we are to get to 90 pts, we need to get 58 from 66, can only lose twice and draw once. Then there’s also the small matter of GD.

It’s nice and all to dream, but cold hard numbers just don’t support that hypothesis, looking at the respective form of the 2 clubs.

If Newcastle manage to draw tonight and we beat Arsenal next (as well as win tonight), we’re all of a sudden looking at a 6 point gap with a lot of football left to be played. I know that’s a lot of ifs, but if the stars align, we could be looking at a very interesting table within just 2 weeks.

 

[bosnian_red]

Think Newcastle will fall off at some point but one of Liverpool or Chelsea will catch up. We are yet to goto Liverpool , Newcastle, Spurs and Arsenal. At this point, it's as open as you can get.

Did a game by game predictor til the end of the season. Had Liverpool eventually finishing 1 point above United, about 6-7 points clear of Newcastle, and then another 7 points or so to Spurs and Chelsea and Brighton all close to each other.

It's open, but I do think Chelsea and Spurs are just too far away in terms of performances, the way they're trending, squad, coaching, morale etc. I don't think they'll get to 70's while I think United and Liverpool will be close to 80 points, and Newcastle in the low to mid 70's mark. Had Arsenal drop off a bit and end mid 80's, with City top on 91.

A big thing is definitely fixtures. After the next 3 games, after half a season, United will have a ton of home games to come against bottom half sides, and will have played Arsenal and City both home and away. We'll have Liverpool, Brighton, Newcastle, Spurs and West Ham away and Chelsea at Old Trafford as our tough on paper games for the 2nd half of the season. Maybe Palace away too. That's 12/19 games that are easy on paper though. Just ending the season with winning those easy games, and 3 draws and 4 losses from the 7 "difficult games" would give us 39 points, and we'd end the season on 75 points (with 4 points from the next 3 games). Honestly, I'd be surprised if we get fewer than mid 70's points wise when you break down our fixture list, and that's always good for top 4.

 

[DJ_21]

If Newcastle manage to draw tonight and we beat Arsenal next (as well as win tonight), we’re all of a sudden looking at a 6 point gap with a lot of football left to be played. I know that’s a lot of ifs, but if the stars align, we could be looking at a very interesting table within just 2 weeks.

If we beat city and arsenal then I’ll start getting excited.

 

[Ayoba]

WTF, by the next game week we'd have played City twice but Arsenal have yet to play them?! How?

 

[Sandikan]

Oh really? Who's the second club?!

Yeh I've met a few Liverpool fans like that too, they're everywhere unfortunately! Delusional bunch.

Reading.
Although after years of their shenanigans he's not renewed his season ticket.

 

[Sandikan]

WTF, by the next game week we'd have played City twice but Arsenal have yet to play them?! How?

As simple as City v Arsenal being postponed first time round?

 

[Sandikan]

If Newcastle manage to draw tonight and we beat Arsenal next (as well as win tonight), we’re all of a sudden looking at a 6 point gap with a lot of football left to be played. I know that’s a lot of ifs, but if the stars align, we could be looking at a very interesting table within just 2 weeks.

Let's just worry about booting Bournemouth first.

We really need to get that shockingly low goal difference up.

 

[croadyman]

Let's just worry about booting Bournemouth first.

We really need to get that shockingly low goal difference up.

Yeah mental when you look at how many teams have scored more than us already this season and that needs to change in this sort of game

 

[Ayoba]

As simple as City v Arsenal being postponed first time round?

why was it postponed?

 

[croadyman]

If we beat city and arsenal then I’ll start getting excited.

City will be hardest test at Old Trafford since Arsenal in September,also not won in league at Emirates since Arteta took over

 

[Sandikan]

why was it postponed?

To fit Arsenal's Europa game in

https://theathletic.com/3705214/2022/10/19/arsenal-manchester-city-why/

 

[sepulturite]

why was it postponed?

Queens funeral

Edit: nevermind, see above

 

[Judas]

We're actually in a position where we just need to worry about ourselves. Focus on the next game, and keep on winning. Long long long way to go.

 

[croadyman]

We're actually in a position where we just need to worry about ourselves. Focus on the next game, and keep on winning. Long long long way to go.

What can we take from City & Arsenal realistically with all of our first XI available

 

[Rightnr]

What can we take from City & Arsenal realistically with all of our first XI available

Anywhere between 0 and 6 points. I'd wager 2 but Arsenal have had our number at their place for a long time now in the league. We're a bloody 3 in the FPL difficulty rating ffs.

The Owen ref is intentional

 

[Rams]

Big game tonight. 3 points would put us in a very strong position.

 

[Ole'sattheWheel]

We just need to carry on with what we're doing.
A big win tonight would be huge but i'm more than happy just racking up the 3 points & clean sheets.

I doubt it's gonna come down to GD with how everyone around us seems to love dropping points.

Get the wins and worry about battering teams next year when we get new owners & a goalscorer

 

[croadyman]

Anywhere between 0 and 6 points. I'd wager 2 but Arsenal have had our number at their place for a long time now in the league. We're a bloody 3 in the FPL difficulty rating ffs.

The Owen ref is intentional

I think 4 would be fantastic but hard to beat either

 

[croadyman]

We just need to carry on with what we're doing.
A big win tonight would be huge but i'm more than happy just racking up the 3 points & clean sheets.

I doubt it's gonna come down to GD with how everyone around us seems to love dropping points.

Get the wins and worry about battering teams next year when we get new owners & a goalscorer

Which goalscorer would be your top target in the summer,mine is still Osimhen because although Kane is proven feels like he could fall off in next year or so which concerns me

 

[Utd heap]

Nit picking over results in certain games at this stage of the season is largely a waste of time. Will be a million twists and turns.

We might loser to B'mouth and win at Arsenal. I'll do the predictions ten games out.

 

[Rojofiam]

Arsenal only need 32-37 points from the remaining 22 games to reach 75-80. I thought from early on in the season that 86-88 would win the league this season. Arsenal look good for it at the moment, only need 2 PPG to get there.

Yeah, what I meant was that them and City are the 2 teams that'll reach 85 plus, other teams won't be able to this season. But I also can't see those 2 aforementioned teams reach close to 100 points.

 

[Giggsy13]

As of now I’d say city, Arsenal, United and Newcastle, as these clubs look the strongest at the back. I know we’ve conceded 6 and 4 this season, but those in hindsight now seem like freak results.

 

[croadyman]

As of now I’d say city, Arsenal, United and Newcastle, as these clubs look the strongest at the back. I know we’ve conceded 6 and 4 this season, but those in hindsight now seem like freak results.

Those games are why we have conceded 20,like you say outside of that we have defended well

 

[Wengerista]

We are not even half way into the games yet, Arsenal will wobble, it depends on how they react, traditionally Arsenal have imploded following a bad result or 2, will be interesting when CL starts back up, I cannot really fault Arsenal right now but they look like a team in good form, need to see what they look like if their form drops off, we really need to sign a striker in January even as a rotation player.

Surely if there's a 5 week break in the season and then a team comes back and continues getting results, away from home, despite one of their best players getting injured during said break, that can't be called form/momentum and starts to suggest a decent residual quality level and mentality?

On the two occasions we've dropped points so far this season (+ the cup losses) we've also responded well and I think that mental growth among the younger players might be an even more important development than our signings.

We'll unquestionably drop points again this season, as will everyone but I don't see us having a multi-game 'collapse' in the Palace, Brighton & Southampton run mold (I don't really see the NLD & Newcastle defeats as a collapse/bottle job in the same way) as I don't think these players have that same fragility in them anymore.

I think the current top four will most likely be the final top four, but I'm not necessarily staking the house on current order. There's a lot of football left to be played.

 

[Sarni]

If we win tonight we will get ourselves a nice cushion over Chelsea and Liverpool. If we hit some form we should be able to finish 3rd comfortably, with Newcastle, Liverpool, Spurs and maybe Chelsea fighting it out over 4th. I think Newcastle lack quality though and will eventually drop to about 7th or 8th.

I don’t think you will need that many points to finish top 4 this year though. 65 should do it.

 

[Witchking]

We seem to be counting our chickens already.

Lots of the season still remains to be played. If we bring no striker in, we probably will finish outside he top 4.

We play almost every 3 days now and cannot trust Martial as he blows hot and cold.

Rashford might need to keep scoring till the end of the season and we will need to be without major injuries.

We also should not drop points when not expected. Hopefully we do the job today.

Liverpool have brought in a striker, they might get a midfielder. Chelsea, Newcastle & City all have been finances to go for a player if they need to.

Alternatively, if we manage to beat Barcelona, it might swing the momentum towards us to go on a decent run.

Quietly positive that Erik will get us through this season on a good note but also equally pessimistic in general about our chances looking back at the last decade.

 

[wolvored]

What can we take from City & Arsenal realistically with all of our first XI available

2 draws will do. Arse and City outplayed us and Arse were unlucky with Martinez goal, which has been called out as a wrong decision by VAR themselves now. We are getting better and better and I can see us getting top 3 maybe, but definitely top 4.

 

[wolvored]

We seem to be counting our chickens already.

Lots of the season still remains to be played. If we bring no striker in, we probably will finish outside he top 4.

We play almost every 3 days now and cannot trust Martial as he blows hot and cold.

Rashford might need to keep scoring till the end of the season and we will need to be without major injuries.

We also should not drop points when not expected. Hopefully we do the job today.

Liverpool have brought in a striker, they might get a midfielder. Chelsea, Newcastle & City all have been finances to go for a player if they need to.

Alternatively, if we manage to beat Barcelona, it might swing the momentum towards us to go on a decent run.

Quietly positive that Erik will get us through this season on a good note but also equally pessimistic in general about our chances looking back at the last decade.

If we dont get a striker in, I would recall Amad. Seems to have come on leaps and bounds this season. Not a CF, but more like a Gakpo, who we didnt get.

 

[Doracle]

2 draws will do. Arse and City outplayed us and Arse were unlucky with Martinez goal, which has been called out as a wrong decision by VAR themselves now. We are getting better and better and I can see us getting top 3 maybe, but definitely top 4.

Was that the one where there was an obvious foul? What nutcase ref has called that out as a wrong decision?

 

[wolvored]

Was that the one where there was an obvious foul? What nutcase ref has called that out as a wrong decision?

Last week or the week before it was in the press the 6 VAR mistakes that an independant (VAR?) panel judged on. Heres the Sky sports report. Link

 

[bosnian_red]

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More good graphs. 5 game moving xGdifference average. United, Liverpool and Newcastle trending very similarly, Spurs and Chelsea well below. Arsenal over performing a little.

 

[Judge Red]

Well, I’m not one for getting carried away but the simple truth is if we win our next two league games, we’re in a title race and Arsenal and City will still have to play each other twice.

 

[charlenefan]

Come on Palace, do us a favour and take some points off of Spurs tomorrow please