Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[do.ob]

I have no idea about military strategy, but Ukraine on its own holding the country against the Russians is basically impossible, right? They will put up as much resistance as they can, but without a counter offensive (or the rest of the world enforcing crippling sanctions) the Russians can just bomb and siege every bit of conventional military resistance into submission?!

 

[Mciahel Goodman]

Yes, and this is why I am saying that the response needs to be stronger, and why the West needs to at least give the impression that they are prepared to go to war over this (but only if they are actually prepared to follow through on this). Putin's strategy works because people believe his threats. He threatens escalation and nuclear war, and nobody calls him out on it. He is the poker player who goes all-in every single round.

I am not a warmonger, and I do not want to see conflict, but as the old saying goes "If you want peace, you must prepare for war." - the Western strategy right now is simply too reminiscent of appeasement. When you overtly state "We are not prepared to go to war over x" (as has been the case with Ukraine since the start) then of course for Putin, that is absolutely a green light. You need to give him pause for thought, and threaten him with something that he may not have already factored in.

Sanctions are the pause for thought. Being a pariah and risking a military defeat or a damning campaign. These are the things that give him pause for thought and he has gone ahead anyway.

We know the West isn't prepared to kill itself for the Ukraine, and so does Russia. Pretending that we are won't help.

 

[FriedClams]

Yes, and this is why I am saying that the response needs to be stronger, and why the West needs to at least give the impression that they are prepared to go to war over this (but only if they are actually prepared to follow through on this). Putin's strategy works because people believe his threats. He threatens escalation and nuclear war, and nobody calls him out on it. He is the poker player who goes all-in every single round.

I am not a warmonger, and I do not want to see conflict, but as the old saying goes "If you want peace, you must prepare for war." - the Western strategy right now is simply too reminiscent of appeasement. When you overtly state "We are not prepared to go to war over x" (as has been the case with Ukraine since the start) then of course for Putin, that is absolutely a green light. You need to give him pause for thought, and threaten him with something that he may not have already factored in.

It seems like he has factored everything in, and is going ahead anyway. The safest approach in terms of dealing with this adversary, is to assume that he's quite alright with the prospect of the world blowing itself up. He cannot be underestimated, so these sanctions need to hit soon and hit hard but there needs to (and i'm sure there is) other strategies that will help restore order.

 

[Rightnr]

Yeah, because a load of EU banks have made loans to Russian companies and want to be repaid.

From the FT a few weeks ago:

If it is indeed Germany, it would be pathetic. I would guess Deutsche Bank are probably deep in Russia loans.

Germany absolutely fecked European security and the worst thing is, they're too arrogant to admit it.

 

[The Firestarter]

I'm far from an expert (just look at my username ffs) but if NATO rolled in then suddenly you have Putin telling Russians that the world is out to destroy them and suddenly that 900,000 Russian troops become millions.

It doesn't matter unless Russia is actually invaded. Which won't happen. They don't have enough modern equipment on reserve for these millions of people. They have antiquated Soviet stuff by the thousands.

 

[IWat]

The problem is on how to enforce a non-fly zone? Just shoot the Russian aircrafts (easily doable).

What would have been the consequences then?

Anti-air destroyers, SAM's based out of neighbouring allies and fighter patrols.

And yes, if it's legitimately breached then it should have been enforced. Him knowing the West was serious about that I honestly believe would have stopped this.

 

[Rajma]

If it is indeed Germany, it would be pathetic. I would guess Deutsche Bank are probably deep in Russia loans.

Germany absolutely fecked European security and the worst thing is, they're too arrogant to admit it.

100%, this thread has been a living proof of that.

 

[Ali Dia]

Seems like Syria was just Russia warming up for this. So sick of the endless greed and power grab. Ordinary people don’t want this shit and even if they do it doesn’t benefit them in any way shape or form.

 

[TMDaines]

Utter insanity. Every word.

There’s a lot of people placing a lot of stock in and assuming that Putin would never attack a NATO country.

A lot of those same people thought Putin would never commence a full-scale invasion of Ukraine a few years, if not months ago.

 

[Revan]

Anti-air destroyers, SAM's based out of neighbouring allies and fighter patrols.

And yes, if it's legitimately breached then it should have been enforced. Him knowing the West was serious about that I honestly believe would have stopped this.

I know that it was easy to enforce it. Heck, the US could send their Air Force there and win the battle in the sky. But that is the same as declaring war in Russia.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

There’s a lot of people placing a lot of stock in and assuming that Putin would never attack a NATO country.

A lot of those same people thought Putin would never commence a full-scale invasion of Ukraine a few years, if not months ago.

Days ago in some cases.

 

[MTF]

The problem is on how to enforce a non-fly zone? Just shoot the Russian aircrafts (easily doable).

What would have been the consequences then?

I dunno. I understand that it would have been direct NATO on Russian conflict and you start to risk bad escalation. But if it had been announced and implemented months before, it would have posed the question back to Russians as far as whether they wanted to push the issue or not.

I guess one of the issues from a NATO perspective would have been that the planes would have been operating without CSAR capabilities, relying on Ukranian ground forces and risking not just casualties in the air but also capture by Russia.

 

[IWat]

I know that it was easy to enforce it. Heck, the US could send their Air Force there and win the battle in the sky. But that is the same as declaring war in Russia.

I really don't personally think it is. Enforcing a no-fly zone over a sovereign state who have requested it, and is put in place for both sides can hardly be called declaring war on one side.

 

[RedTiger]

Nor the Pakistanis

Russians are building bangladeshs first ever nuclear power plant at the moment, Bangladesh although a minnow internationally won't say shit either.

 

[mu4c_20le]

Utter insanity. Every word.

Even "nobody wants war"?

 

[Organic Potatoes]

I know that it was easy to enforce it. Heck, the US could send their Air Force there and win the battle in the sky. But that is the same as declaring war in Russia.

Yes, the NFZ term is thrown around too casually. It is akin to declaring war. We might as well blockade the Black and Baltic seas at that point.

 

[Van Piorsing]

I have no idea about military strategy, but Ukraine on its own holding the country against the Russians is basically impossible, right? They will put up as much resistance as they can, but without a counter offensive (or the rest of the world enforcing crippling sanctions) the Russians can just bomb and siege every bit of conventional military resistance into submission?!

Russia's even too big for NATO to fully invade it's territory. In World War II, Hitler didn't even covered a small part of it while having best army in Europe.

When it comes to Ukraine it was almost already lost cause from the moment they gave up nuclear weaponry in the 90s.

 

[Rightnr]

This thread was made a more than a month ago, surely US intelligence services would have been aware of an incoming conflict in Ukraine for a few months as well?

I get that everyone wants to avoid nuclear warfare, but I was just thinking that basically now we are saying "we'll let you have Ukraine to avoid a bigger conflict" and we're just hoping for the best that Putin won't go any further than Ukraine. Even if he does, the NATO would come out of this looking pretty weak imo.

Article 5 (?) of NATO states that if one country is attacked, all of them are and at that point we're in the WW3 stage.

Also, NATO cannot send troops to Ukraine because it's supposed to be a defensive alliance and Ukraine is not part of it (that ship has sailed).

And if you listen to Hitler junior, he is manufacturing excuses left, right and centre. Imagine if you give him a real provocation. We're literally on the precipice, even if logically he should stop at splitting and/or installing a puppet government in Ukraine. Logic seems to have flown out of the window though.

Finally, on China, I cannot see them doing anything. I bet Xi is loving this dress rehearsal to test NATO's resolve for his main prize - Taiwan. It's ideal for him to let the US be distracted by this and speed up their invasion of Taiwan.

 

[Rhyme Animal]

Doubt it has much to do about being sophisticated enough. Their position is obviously threatened if the country is modernized, he’s essentially a dictator and they’ve been pocketing billions...He’s very calculated

He is very calculated and clever for sure - but he isn’t a sophisticated leader, none of the old skool superpower leaders are. They’re all old and out of touch with the new era of humanity.

That’s one of the reasons why the World is currently so fecked up - we’re at a crossroads in civilisation where the power is hoarded by increasingly old and out of touch entities who know their physical time is limited

He's insane but he's not stupid. He knows that he couldn't win a conventional war against NATO, and that attacking a member state more or less ensures nuclear war, and ultimately the end of the world.

He’s an ageing tyrant - feck knows what he’ll do…

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Holy cow

Yeah, that’s so sad hearing the child cry. It’s fecking pathetic, this whole anachronistic model is utterly fecking pathetic.

small man complex + power. Amazing what it can do to the world.

Most dictators actually tend to be VERY tall - and Hitler was above average height (relatively)!

 

[owlo]

Quite effective the javelin as well.

Could be the turkish anti tank drones. Was reports of jets going down earlier too, which is likely nasams2.

 

[LARulz]

Anti-air destroyers, SAM's based out of neighbouring allies and fighter patrols.

And yes, if it's legitimately breached then it should have been enforced. Him knowing the West was serious about that I honestly believe would have stopped this.

Yeah of course they are deep in but they have a point of you still need sanctions up your sleeve to a degree. If you do everything now then Putin is mental enough to go all in

(not saying thats the only sanctions they can do, I don't know what else but generally there should be at least 1 more massive sanction up their sleeves before they have to potentially do something with the military)

 

[mu4c_20le]

Yes, the NFZ term is thrown around too casually. It is akin to declaring war. We might as well blockade the Black and Baltic seas at that point.

Reasonable response when Russia decided to mass troops and tanks on the Ukrainian border.

 

[IWat]

Yes, the NFZ term is thrown around too casually. It is akin to declaring war. We might as well blockade the Black and Baltic seas at that point.

Completely disagree. Something enforced on both sides with the agreement of the government of that country is not declaring war, that's almost laughable.

I am not saying it should have been enforced over the already disputed territory.

 

[Precaution]

What's Turkeys stance on this? Given Erdogan is abit of a megalomaniac himself

 

[TMDaines]

I am not sure how people can be confident things will go back to normal.

We're not talking about some Western politician who talks a lot and does little. Putin and his cabal have the money and are insane enough to cross any red line.

And by bad for Russia, you mean bad for their people, right? Putin doesn't a give a feck about them.

I remember at the start of the pandemic in March 2020 boldly predicting that that was going to be the most world-shaping global event since WWII.

I didn’t expect something else to come along displace that from the top only two years later.

 

[Deery]

There’s a lot of people placing a lot of stock in and assuming that Putin would never attack a NATO country.

A lot of those same people thought Putin would never commence a full-scale invasion of Ukraine a few years, if not months ago.

Well he has been throwing his weight around for over 10 years.

 

[Danny1982]

People need to understand this simple but crucial concept in this conflict: Any, any kind of use of military force by NATO in this conflict = nuclear war

So conventional NATO forces in Ukraine = nuclear war
No-fly zone by NATO = nuclear war

Why is Russia ready to go to nuclear war over Ukraine but not NATO? It's because Ukraine means much more to Russia than to NATO, not because NATO are cowards or because Putin is crazy. Vice versa, NATO is definitely ready to go to nuclear war over Denmark, but Russia won't.

Ukraine should have realized this and played its cards correctly after 2014, and not go all-in in its anti-Russia pro-NATO agenda before they even get enough guarantees for protection. Adding NATO membership to the constitution and start talking about nuclear arms while you have an ongoing conflict on your borders with Russia and without enough protection from NATO looks like a huge miscalculation and was bound to lead to this.

 

[Simbo]

I have no idea about military strategy, but Ukraine on its own holding the country against the Russians is basically impossible, right? They will put up as much resistance as they can, but without a counter offensive (or the rest of the world enforcing crippling sanctions) the Russians can just bomb and siege every bit of conventional military resistance into submission?!

As close to impossible as it gets ultimately, they can only delay and make it as painful as possible for Russia.

The bloodiest battles will be fought in the cities, for both sides, they are currently tryin to arm everybody willing and will resort to guerilla urban warfare. I've seen reports from Afghanistan veterens that are aiming to make the Taliban look like amateurs with what they have prepared.

Ukraine Army should also be able to find sanctuary in the West of Ukraine where they will be resupplied by NATO and will perhaps be able to counter-attack and relieve Kyiv, but there will be a limit to that. Once there mechanised force is destroyed it is is mostly over, just depends what they can do in the cities.

The obvious problem with urban fighting is that it will result in massive loss of life. This is where it gets controversial, because it may not be worth it as others have argued if there is no intervention. If civilian casualties enter the hundreds of thousands however... I have a very hard time believing there will be no intervention, risk of nuclear war or not.

 

[owlo]

What's Turkeys stance on this? Given Erdogan is abit of a megalomaniac himself

He wants Ukraine to win any conflict, but doesn't want to be dragged into conflict himself. (very short version)

 

[Revan]

What's Turkeys stance on this? Given Erdogan is abit of a megalomaniac himself

Erdogan condemned Russia’s aggression, and respects the territory of Ukraine. Nothing to suggest Turkey will have any other policy than that of NATO.

 

[JPRouve]

People need to understand this simple but crucial concept in this conflict: Any, any kind of use of military force by NATO in this conflict = nuclear war

So conventional NATO forces in Ukraine = nuclear war
No-fly zone by NATO = nuclear war

Why is Russia ready to go to nuclear war over Ukraine but not NATO? It's because Ukraine means much more to Russia than to NATO, not because NATO are cowards or because Putin is crazy. Vice versa, NATO is definitely ready to go to nuclear war over Denmark, but Russia won't.

Ukraine should have realized this and played its cards correctly after 2014, and not go all-in in its anti-Russia pro-NATO agenda before they even get enough guarantees for protection. Adding NATO membership to the constitution and start talking about nuclear arms while you have an ongoing conflict on your borders with Russia and without enough protection from NATO looks like a huge miscalculation and was bound to lead to this.

I wouldn't say that it's a fact. Now I do think that it would lead to a generous use of WMD, people seem to forget that even conventional WMD are absolutely terrible. Simply going to a phosphorus bombs match would be awful.

 

[2cents]

What's Turkeys stance on this? Given Erdogan is abit of a megalomaniac himself

Erdogan has condemned it:

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“We reject Russia’s military operation,” he said in a televised speech after convening an emergency security meeting.​

​

On Tuesday also, Turkey’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs had been quick to denounce Russia’s move to recognise the independence of two breakaway territories in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbas.​

​

“The decision of the Russian Federation to recognise the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk republics, in addition to contradicting the Minsk Agreements, constitutes a clear violation of Ukraine’s political unity and territorial integrity. The Russian Federation’s decision is unacceptable and we reject it,” the ministry had said in a statement.​

​

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/24/erdogan-russia-attack-ukraine-heavy-blow-regional-peace​

Turkey currently has troops in Cyprus, Syria, and Iraq.

 

[Rightnr]

I remember at the start of the pandemic in March 2020 boldly predicting that that was going to be the most world-shaping global event since WWII.

I didn’t expect something else to come along displace that from the top only two years later.

Unfortunately, the previous huge pandemic in Europe coincided with WW1.

These times of economic harshness give tyrants and other scum like them the perfect excuse.

 

[dove]

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[MoskvaRed]

People need to understand this simple but crucial concept in this conflict: Any, any kind of use of military force by NATO in this conflict = nuclear war

So conventional NATO forces in Ukraine = nuclear war
No-fly zone by NATO = nuclear war

Why is Russia ready to go to nuclear war over Ukraine but not NATO? It's because Ukraine means much more to Russia than to NATO, not because NATO are cowards or because Putin is crazy. Vice versa, NATO is definitely ready to go to nuclear war over Denmark, but Russia won't.

Ukraine should have realized this and played its cards correctly after 2014, and not go all-in in its anti-Russia pro-NATO agenda before they even get enough guarantees for protection. Adding NATO membership to the constitution and start talking about nuclear arms while you have an ongoing conflict on your borders with Russia and without enough protection from NATO looks like a huge miscalculation and was bound to lead to this.

I disagree. I don’t think the Russian military are psychotic enough to launch a nuclear strike over this issue. Remember Able Archer in the 80s when they disobeyed orders. Most likely you’d see Putin stepping down for “health reasons”. Naturally I do not want to put that theory to the test but nor should Western policy be dictated by an assumption of madman strategy on the other side.

 

[Walrus]

Sanctions are the pause for thought. Being a pariah and risking a military defeat or a damning campaign. These are the things that give him pause for thought and he has gone ahead anyway.

We know the West isn't prepared to kill itself for the Ukraine, and so does Russia. Pretending that we are won't help.

We only know this because it is the impression that has been given. The only reason we 'know' that Russia is willing to go to war/nukes over Ukraine is because that is the impression Putin has been giving.
Its too late to change that now, but the West needs to be crystal clear in its response to any further incursions (eg rumours about Russia pushing into Moldova).


Other general thoughts and musings/armchair strategies;

1) NATO enact a no-fly zone around Western and Northern Ukraine. Putin has publicly denied that this is an invasion of Ukraine multiple times. He has claimed it is a "special military operation" focused on Donbass Region. With that in mind, there should be no reason to object to this plan, assuming it doesnt interfere with that region.
In practice, this would have one of two results; force Russia/Putin to call this what it is - a full scale invasion. Or alternately, to deny the Russian Air Force supremacy over Northern/Western Ukraine, which would give the Ukrainians a far better fighting chance of repelling attackers.

2) Ukrainian insurgency. I suspect this is already in the plan, but Ukraine is not a small country. It has 44m people. If Russia wants to occupy and hold that territory, make it impossible for them. If he installs a puppet government, make it impossible for them to function. Practically speaking, I believe this is the most likely longer term scenario in the region - I only fear that Russian genocides and mass-incarcerations will follow.

3) Topple Putin. We are seeing protests across Russia, and sanctions targeting his inner circle and oligarchs. Loosing Putin's grip on Russia and the bigger picture changes rapidly.

4) Putin might claim he is willing to deploy nukes over whatever the flavour of the month is, but are we really to believe that he would be able to go through with it? That not a single general or senior official will reflect and think that Mutually Assured Destruction is a poor choice, and stop him?

 

[Sarni]

Nothing in what he wrote was insane.

What if the Russian army decides to keep going through Moldova, Romania, Poland?

They are like a suicide bomber who keeps taking more and more prisoners. How long do you let them keep going? Right until they're at your front door?

Because that's what happened in WW2. Appeasement only gets you so far and I absolutely hate war. I, however, also have heard stories of what it is to live under the influence of the USSR from my grandparents and through them about the suffering of my great-grandparents.

Putin needs to be stopped and the only way to do this is for him to believe there would be real consequences to his actions.

The way it is now, I can see him getting his pound of flesh from Ukraine, waiting out the mid-terms where the dis-United States will invariably vote the bought-for Republican party and then waiting out another presidency of Trump where he would be free to do whatever he wants. I won't even mention the Tories who have a bond stronger than marriage with their Russian donors.

As someone who comes from the parts where Russia might target next (and has already done so with disinformation), let me tell you, it's no fecking joke.

I very much doubt Russia has the military power to invade Europe. Ukraine will be tough enough for them, Poland is basically impossible. Also completely without any purpose other than ‘sending a message’ which I’m not sure is enough of a reason to start a global war for anyone.

 

[Shane88]

I was sent this info about Ukraine by a friend today:

1st in Europe in proven recoverable reserves of uranium ores;
2nd place in Europe and 10th place in the world in terms of titanium ore reserves;
2nd place in the world in terms of explored reserves of manganese ores (2.3 billion tons, or 12% of the world's reserves);
2nd largest iron ore reserves in the world (30 billion tons);
2nd place in Europe in terms of mercury ore reserves;
3rd place in Europe (13th place in the world) in shale gas reserves (22 trillion cubic meters)
4th in the world by the total value of natural resources;
7th place in the world in coal reserves (33.9 billion tons)
Ukraine is an important agricultural country:
1st in Europe in terms of arable land area;
3rd place in the world by the area of black soil (25% of world's volume);
1st place in the world in exports of sunflower and sunflower oil;
2nd place in the world in barley production and 4th place in barley exports;
3rd largest producer and 4th largest exporter of corn in the world;
4th largest producer of potatoes in the world;
5th largest rye producer in the world;
5th place in the world in bee production (75,000 tons);
8th place in the world in wheat exports;
9th place in the world in the production of chicken eggs;
16th place in the world in cheese exports.
Ukraine can meet the food needs of 600 million people.
Ukraine is an important industrialised country:
1st in Europe in ammonia production;
Europe's 2nd’s and the world’s 4th largest natural gas pipeline system;
3rd largest in Europe and 8th largest in the world in terms of installed capacity of nuclear power plants;
3rd place in Europe and 11th in the world in terms of rail network length (21,700 km);
3rd place in the world (after the U.S. and France) in production of locators and locating equipment;
3rd largest iron exporter in the world
4th largest exporter of turbines for nuclear power plants in the world;
4th world's largest manufacturer of rocket launchers;
4th place in the world in clay exports
4th place in the world in titanium exports
8th place in the world in exports of ores and concentrates;
9th place in the world in exports of defence industry products;
10th largest steel producer in the world (32.4 million tons).

I haven't fact checked it all, he had started though and what he checked was true.

Food for thought.

Someone smart tell me why they aren't a global big dick with those stats?

 

[IWat]

I wouldn't say that it's a fact. Now I do think that it would lead a generous use of WMD, people seem to forget that even conventional WMD are absolutely terrible. Simply going to a phosphorus bombs match would be awful.

Some people act like if you even fart in Russia's general direction there is going to be all out nuclear war. There are examples from the Korean war onwards of nuclear armed nations coming into pretty much direct conflict including deaths etc without anyone throwing nukes about. India-Pakistan being another.

 

[Natener]

If Ukraine Army had seen as much destruction as everyone was expecting they would be now, I think we would have seen a lot more footage of it broadcasted by Russia.

That would not fit their narrative though? Putin is trying to paint this invasion as a war for self-preservation, not a war of conquest.