It's you who doesn't get it. Apart from the very obvious statistical argument, another reason to have your best penalty taker going early is that the pressure is relieved if you score the first few penalties and get a head-start (which is why the team going first wins 60 percent of shootouts).You DON'T get it. Them counting equally has NOTHING to do with the amount of pressure one each penalty. The pressure in a shoot out increases per penalty and 4 and 5 are this the most difficult due to the pressure. Only the strongest takers and your mentally toughest should be on that duty for those 2 kicks. Its only in sudden death when all things are equal, and the pressure is the same and no one has a choice as to who takes what
I believe you are simply not serious if you imagine your opponents are going to miss ANY of the first 3 in a shoot out from 12 yards. For you are wrongly assuming your Keeper will save one of the first 3. If it happens it was just your luck.
Using your best takers there is likely to make you lose 9/10 times. I'm willing to bet England's penalty shoot out woes have often come down to that one factor. Their best takers are always lost early.
I'm not talking about assuming anything. Simply, the statistical possibly that the fifth kick won't ever happen is a very good argument to not save your safest kicker until then. That's not assuming anything, that's just simple understanding of simple math.
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