It quite nice to see all these rainbows that kids have been drawing and sticking on their windows, not sure where that started from. Saw one saying 'please stay home, my mummy is a nurse'.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Exactly my point, information should be laid out to the understanding of the reader, not the person providing it.
This does help to provide more context, thanks for that. Maybe the issue is more to do with the graphs plonked in isolation in the middle of a conversation on a football forum
Its very easy to translate. Don't start getting pissy or you can do one.
There are people in this thread that are underestimating the problem, yes.
As Belgian media are reporting, she had no previous conditions.
https://www.hln.be/nieuws/binnenlan...og-emmanuel-andre-zwaar-aangeslagen~aaa0ea8a/
"Yesterday, a twelve-year-old girl passed away," said Van Gucht. “She tested positive for the coronavirus. The child suddenly deteriorated after three days of fever. She was then rushed to hospital, where she died fairly quickly. As far as we know, there were no underlying health problems with this girl. ”
Well this is just panic fueled nonsense. If you're young you'll almost certainly be fine. Anyone can die of anything at anytime.
This thread is 547 pages in. We're well past the stage where everything needs to be explained from the beginning.
Just hold your hands up, admit you were talking bollocks, and stop digging. It's a graph with log scale axis in a mainstream British newspaper. It's perfectly reasonable to post it here.
There's no shame in not understanding everything posted here. I certainly don't.
Why is everyone so aggressive on here?
I'm not bothered I didn't understand it, I held my hands up on the very first reply to me that I had misinterpreted it, perhaps you should take the time to actually read the conversation, rather than ploughing in with insults.
As I've stated, the graph is valid, but when it is being used on twitter and football forums it needs more explanation, the size of the thread is irrelevant. 99% of people won't understand it, I've studied stats, and still misinterpreted it.
Most people will glance at it, and get the wrong end of the stick, it is irresponsible or misleading. Your average Joe doesn't know what a log scale axis is, in fact to a good majority on here, that sentence may as well be foreign.
Anyone that shares information, anywhere, should be aware of their audience.
I couldn't give two hoots that I didn't understand it, in fact that is exactly the issue, most people won't understand it, and that causes a big problem. When information is being shared to the masses, but they don't understand it, surely you can see how that can be a problem?
Someone above said either learn or don't comment. Sadly that means that most people won't comment, and will either have no idea what the graph means, or will misinterpret it. Neither of which is useful.
Some updated stats from Norway
Tested: over 90 000(almost 2% of the entire population)
Infected: roughly 4500
Hospitalized: 319
Died: 34
We're soon 5 weeks in, so I think we're doing quite well, thankfully. It's surprising that the death rate is far below 1%, though I expect it to rise a little.
Germany seems to be doing really well. I'm impressed by their response.
Tested: over 90 000(almost 2% of the entire population)
Infected: roughly 4500
Hospitalized: 319
Died: 34
We're soon 5 weeks in, so I think we're doing quite well, thankfully. It's surprising that the death rate is far below 1%, though I expect it to rise a little.
Germany seems to be doing really well. I'm impressed by their response.
If anyone asks for a reliable source I'll gladly provide them with one - I only post official government communicated things anyway and am not one to spread scare mongering on Twitter or any conspiracy theories. However "In the interests of not causing stress because we don't need shock posts", that's just a bullshit explanation. It's just a stone cold fact and not scare mongering or trying to create a shock effect / causing stress to anyone.
I don't know if Grinner is participating in this thread in his capacity as a mod or not but he's trying to monopolize it or leading it into a certain direction and it's definitely not helping, or at least really annoying me. But no problem, I'll provide a source next time - even though I don't see other posters asked for a source if they provide foreign numbers, so he was just doing it because he was annoyed by the "shock effect", not by the fact that it lacked a source.
Should be less "learn or don't comment" and more learn through commenting. Not much point having a discussion thread if we expect everyone to know as much as everyone else before they post.
Grinner just asked for a source, as without one a post could be perceived as scaremongering or shock if no-one can gauge the veracity of a story. Both him and jojojo have been consistent on that - no mod is trying to censor unpleasant news here. Fine you cite credible sources, others have been found to have been posting bs, whether inadvertently or not. A link is not a big ask, even if it is in a foreign language.
To be fair, the dotted lines in the graph representing the doubling of cases over a certain number of days is all you really need to interpret the graph. Its clearly labelled . If it wasn't I'd agree with you that it is a bit misleading to the layman.
Quite right, that's the point of a forum is it not?
Yes, the dotted lines are useful, I do think a lot of people could easily not pay attention to them though, focusing on their own country v another. Such as the UK v italy, as it is almost always used to compare.
The lines aren't easy to interpret in that sense, unless you understand the nature of the graph.
Where has anyone said that? I don't think anyone expects others to have assiduously read every post in this thread. Maybe an exception if someone is spouting utter nonsense or conspiracy stuff though.
You're welcome to leave if you don't like how this place is moderated.
I can see it's a problem, but I don't think it's a problem a football forum can fix. I don't understand some of the medical information that's posted, but that's ok, some people do - and I can read a summary as well as anyone.
The graph in question is an example of data that will make sense to the people who are using it daily (like the epidemiologists) and to people who understand the maths, and are interested in the core reasoning behind those expert opinions we hear and the actions spinning out from them.
If you try and present the same data on linear scales - every country looks basically the same. A near horizontal line, followed some days later by a near vertical one - which just means no one can get any information from it. In other words a completely redundant graph that does nothing for anyone.
Thanks for your reply. Yes, it's outrageous what has gone on here. There was an early first wave of what was called Wuhan Virus and some actions like recommending online work, putting curbs on large scale events etc. However, if anyone tried to tell me that Japan simply did not have enough testing capacity as some Japanese people did, I answered no, sorry, Japan has the means to do it including a national health system that is funded by expensive payments each month from residents including foreigners.
The Government did not want any real testing - the proof is small cities in Australia have tested more people than the whole of Japan has done for its population including large cities like Tokyo that has 14 million in the Greater Tokyo area. Plus many accounts from both foreigners and Japanese who were refused tests including people begging for them as their lungs developed problems.
Some Japanese people then said to me that the Government did not want clinics and hospitals flooded by people who only suspected they had the virus. Again - if other developed countries could suddenly do pop-up testing places and other means of testing without having people rush the medical system, then why couldn't Japan? The answer is the Govt didn't want anything to spoil the Olympic party. Well, now the party has been postponed and surprise, surprise, we're hearing about spikes in numbers and the Governor of Tokyo Yurika Koike is threatening a lockdown.
I doubt a real one will happen and to tell the truth, I'm ambivalent about it. I think we do need to consider the business side of lockdowns including the despair of bankruptcy, unemployment rocketing and the social dislocation caused by it, talking about every country that is dealing with this bastard of a virus, plus mental health issues, vulnerable people including those at risk from violence, people with disabilities etc.
From what I've seen here, the complacency in March could have been dealt with promptly. While there's a lot of nonsense spouted about Japan in the media and by people who haven't lived in Japan or live here and have a habit of dissasociating themselves from unpleasant realities especially when they don't understand the Japanese language to any real extent, there is a cultural inclination to accept monitoring and lack of privacy for the community good still in Japan.
I don't like it usually because 'the community good' issue is often twisted for busybodies' purposes or police officers with too much time on their hands to give 2 examples, but the Japanese tendency to accept it could have been put to good use by telling the elderly to get off the subways/trains and just stroll around their local area if they want to get out. They could have got serious about telling families to control the schoolkids who took the school shutdowns as excuse to hang out in numbers in entertainment areas like Shibuya and Shinjuku. Likewise uni students should have been told by their institutions that they were expected to behave with intelligence and not use the time off to gather in groups in those and other areas.
There is a lot of co-dependence in this society and uni students for example have far more to do with authority figures at their institutions than their counterparts in western countries. This could have been done. Some employers made their employees work from home but others thought and think it's fine for their employees to pack crowded trains in the mornings and evenings. Some adjustment for flexi-time would have made a big difference.
And the whole mask wearing culture is creating a dangerous complacency. The Japanese got into the habit of wearing masks because they go to work sick. Wearing them in times of epidemics and pandemics seems great and responsible but masks are only as good as your careful use of them. Taking them off and putting them on uncleaned surfaces and then your mouth, wearing them next to coughers and sneezers so their aerosols gets on your mask and you touch it, are fairly common here. So are idiots breathing down your neck at supermarkets and stations etc even when there is space.
I told a stupid woman to get out from right behind me only the other day. We were in a supermarket at a time where she and I were the only people lined up. So what did this numpty do? She stood right behind me. I said in Japanese firmly but politely to please step back but she just exclaimed 'Mask, mask.' Yeah, whatever you do don't reply in a correct Japanese sentence although I am using your language correctly..... You wouldn't believe how this stupidity repeats itself around Tokyo and in Japan at the moment. There is a kind of psychological rigidity at work here - many Japanese don't really understand that crowding around other people even when there is space is quite dysfunctional.
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Yeah fair enough, I'll have it in mind next time!
I don't like how you moderate, there's a difference.
That I don't care about. Just do as you're asked and that'll be fine.
Yeah I got that, your colleague got the point across in a respectful manner.
No but I think it's slightly unfair to say someone should either take the time to learn something new or not make a comment on it at all, as was suggested on the previous page. Arguing about things is a way of learning, not just a way of showing off what you already know. Plus most of the people posting here don't really know much anyway. Some just know slightly more than others, often simply because they've become engaged in the conversation earlier.
@VintageWhatnots post is what led to him learning more about why they use that particular graph, which is a good thing. Don't see how him not commenting would have been preferable.
Evidently something can be done, in two minutes, you've gone some way to explain the graph, and it's purpose.
Even just a sentence stating that it isn't linear, would help, so people don't think it is. Anything to draw attention to the fact that there is more to the graph than first meets the eye. I just think people have to be very careful sharing information, particularly diagrams, that on first glance look straight forward, but actual they're is more to it.
The issue in a nutshell. If COVID-19 behaved like conventional influenza for example, you might be able to take the risk. However, it is highly contagious and there are even cases where the infected person/s seem to have picked it up from seats, to give one frightening example. We don't know enough yet about transmission processes. Those are only 2 points out of a number that could be made.
Sweden seems to be taking a fairly relaxed attitude - no wonder their deaths are higher than those of Australia or Israel even given differences in geography, etc. Again there are questions we can raise about real deal lockdowns but from what I have seen in the news, the govt in Sweden seems irresponsible in its attitude. If anybody lives in Sweden could they please repond?
I think @Regulus Arcturus Black was living in Sweden and was at least somewhat in favour of their response so he might have a counter-argument.
Well said. I commend your effort in educating the plebs on here.
The issue with herd immunity is that a country like Italy has 100k reported cases which represents 0.17% of their population. Even if we assume that cases are under reported and are 5 times that, it's still well below 1% of population. You need at least 60% to be able to talk about herd immunity at all, and maybe even 70%+. It'll be 2023 or something before that happens and we can open Europe for travel etc., considering many countries are in lockdowns and are only getting < 500 cases per day.
I think there's no chance of opening things up before vaccine is found. Even if it means lockdown continues for 12+ months from now. Obviously you will have population resist to it so I'm not sure how this gets resolved. I'm not scared of the virus personally nearly as much as I'm scared about consequences of what is happening now.
I think there's no chance of opening things up before vaccine is found. Even if it means lockdown continues for 12+ months from now. Obviously you will have population resist to it so I'm not sure how this gets resolved. I'm not scared of the virus personally nearly as much as I'm scared about consequences of what is happening now.
Thank you. I'd like to learn more. Hopefully he will post about it again.
I'm not so sure.
I mean South Korea have thus far avoided a severe lockdown at all, let alone been unable to lift it. It's not like it's literally impossible to manage without lockdown.
Obviously countries coming out of lockdown will still have a lot of restrictions in place but with a lot of testing and very targeted measures it should be possible for many of them to get things moving again. Which is the point the WHO have been re-emphasising recently, that lockdown is a second chance to attack the virus with testing and tracing.
More to the point, the more severe lockdowns would be literally impossible to keep in place for 12 months. Aside from the unprecedented damage to the world economy that would cause, social unrest and non-compliance would reach breaking point long before the 12 months was up. Keeping things shut down for 12 months is much more unrealistic than finding a way to start opening things up again, I think.
Well @ryansgirl, the first thing to understand is that all of the deaths happening now are from cases that happened three weeks ago before any country was locking down, in that sense these were inevitable deaths even if we locked down when England or France did.
The Swedish experts are doing a press conference every day at 2 PM and they seem still fairly happy that the responses they put in place are having an effect because the amount of people going into ICU every day is a very stable level and has been now for quite a while.
For all countries, we will only really know how well they are doing in another two weeks or so, but trust me on the fact that Sweden does not have such a lax attitude as many people think; we have put lots and lots of precautions in place and everyone I know and see everywhere is social distancing.
Add to that we have the most single households in the world at almost 50%, we have the youngest moving out age in the world at just over 18 and people very rarely live in large families with grandparents etc. This means Sweden is a little bit more unique compared to France Spain Italy and even the UK.
Denmark for its population has a similar number of deaths to Sweden and they locked down so that should show you that you can’t draw any conclusions at this point.
Comparing to Australia is daft considering when Australia were getting it’s first 10 deaths. The next couple of weeks will be very telling in Aus.
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I previously said learn first or don’t comment but that was directed at people posting ‘safety’ advice that’s conflicting or just reading something once and running to this thread and stating as fact without even checking if there’s any truth to what they read
Are there any figures on length of time between diagnosis and death? We've all seen reports of unfortunates who've gone from fine to dead in two days but it appears that most victims are in critical for a number of days before succumbing. Is there enough data yet for any meaningful figures?
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In the UK it seems pretty pointless because it seems they're only testing once they're in hospital so im guessing there's no accurate way of knowing.
I'm not sure Korean ways of dealing with this would be possible to replicate in Europe. Certainly not in Poland.
Yeah I heard about this yesterday. It’s mad and pretty worrying.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#days
I saw the same figures in medical papers but it was a couple of weeks ago so I don't know if they are still relevant, it's supposed to be a dozen of days for older people and it varies greatly for the younger ones from a handful of days to more than a month.
9 days from symptom onset to death. This has increased slightly, it was 8 days last week, possibly as the weaker patients died quickly early on. Also remember the more advanced age of Italian victims.
Section 7:
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_26_marzo_eng.pdf