Classical Mechanic
Full Member
It quite nice to see all these rainbows that kids have been drawing and sticking on their windows, not sure where that started from. Saw one saying 'please stay home, my mummy is a nurse'.
It quite nice to see all these rainbows that kids have been drawing and sticking on their windows, not sure where that started from. Saw one saying 'please stay home, my mummy is a nurse'.
Exactly my point, information should be laid out to the understanding of the reader, not the person providing it.Jumping in here. When its in a paperi think it needs to be explained for the "dumbest" reader not the "smartest".
Not just talking about this graph but anything really.
And you think those people are reading this thread?It needs to be shared as a wake-up call for the fecking idiots who still throw lock down parties and deny the fact this is a threat to us all.
As far as we know, the child didn't have any previous conditions.
This does help to provide more context, thanks for that. Maybe the issue is more to do with the graphs plonked in isolation in the middle of a conversation on a football forumThey should probably take into account their readership too though. I suspect readers of the Financial Times find more value in these sort of graphs than people who just read the more standard daily newspapers might.
Plus context is important too. If you're just presenting one graph on its own then that's different to presenting a series of different graphs. Also the FT guy provides an explanation for why they're using log scales and not using per capita figures each time he posts updated charts:
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Aside from having value in and of itself, those explanations give you license to go a bit deeper than just planting graphs in a paper copy newspaper would, I think.
Its very easy to translate. Don't start getting pissy or you can do one.Yeah I'll include a link to a Dutch-written article every time I post an update if that really helps you. Enjoy.
And we do need shock posts because there's still people who don't understand how serious this is. It's no use trying to gloss over the hard reality out there.
There are people in this thread that are underestimating the problem, yes.And you think those people are reading this thread?
As far as you know how?
Well this is just panic fueled nonsense. If you're young you'll almost certainly be fine. Anyone can die of anything at anytime."We don't need shock posts even though they're telling the truth and show that literally everyone dies because of this thing, not just 65+ year olds". Okay then.
This thread is 547 pages in. We're well past the stage where everything needs to be explained from the beginning.This does help to provide more context, thanks for that. Maybe the issue is more to do with the graphs plonked in isolation in the middle of a conversation on a football forum
This thread is 547 pages in. We're well past the stage where everything needs to be explained from the beginning.
Just hold your hands up, admit you were talking bollocks, and stop digging. It's a graph with log scale axis in a mainstream British newspaper. It's perfectly reasonable to post it here.
There's no shame in not understanding everything posted here. I certainly don't.
If anyone asks for a reliable source I'll gladly provide them with one - I only post official government communicated things anyway and am not one to spread scare mongering on Twitter or any conspiracy theories. However "In the interests of not causing stress because we don't need shock posts", that's just a bullshit explanation. It's just a stone cold fact and not scare mongering or trying to create a shock effect / causing stress to anyone.Yes but we don't need what can potentially be bullshit stories circulating on social media posted either, given people are on a state of alert anyway. Asking for reliable sources is hardly unreasonable.
Grinner just asked for a source, as without one a post could be perceived as scaremongering or shock if no-one can gauge the veracity of a story. Both him and jojojo have been consistent on that - no mod is trying to censor unpleasant news here. Fine you cite credible sources, others have been found to have been posting bs, whether inadvertently or not. A link is not a big ask, even if it is in a foreign language.If anyone asks for a reliable source I'll gladly provide them with one - I only post official government communicated things anyway and am not one to spread scare mongering on Twitter or any conspiracy theories. However "In the interests of not causing stress because we don't need shock posts", that's just a bullshit explanation. It's just a stone cold fact and not scare mongering or trying to create a shock effect / causing stress to anyone.
I don't know if Grinner is participating in this thread in his capacity as a mod or not but he's trying to monopolize it or leading it into a certain direction and it's definitely not helping, or at least really annoying me. But no problem, I'll provide a source next time.
To be fair, the dotted lines in the graph representing the doubling of cases over a certain number of days is all you really need to interpret the graph. Its clearly labelled . If it wasn't I'd agree with you that it is a bit misleading to the layman.Why is everyone so aggressive on here?
I'm not bothered I didn't understand it, I held my hands up on the very first reply to me that I had misinterpreted it, perhaps you should take the time to actually read the conversation, rather than ploughing in with insults.
As I've stated, the graph is valid, but when it is being used on twitter and football forums it needs more explanation, the size of the thread is irrelevant. 99% of people won't understand it, I've studied stats, and still misinterpreted it.
Most people will glance at it, and get the wrong end of the stick, it is irresponsible or misleading. Your average Joe doesn't know what a log scale axis is, in fact to a good majority on here, that sentence may as well be foreign.
Anyone that shares information, anywhere, should be aware of their audience.
I couldn't give two hoots that I didn't understand it, in fact that is exactly the issue, most people won't understand it, and that causes a big problem. When information is being shared to the masses, but they don't understand it, surely you can see how that can be a problem?
Someone above said either learn or don't comment. Sadly that means that most people won't comment, and will either have no idea what the graph means, or will misinterpret it. Neither of which is useful.
Quite right, that's the point of a forum is it not?Should be less "learn or don't comment" and more learn through commenting. Not much point having a discussion thread if we expect everyone to know as much as everyone else before they post.
Yes, the dotted lines are useful, I do think a lot of people could easily not pay attention to them though, focusing on their own country v another. Such as the UK v italy, as it is almost always used to compare.To be fair, the dotted lines in the graph representing the doubling of cases over a certain number of days is all you really need to interpret the graph. Its clearly labelled . If it wasn't I'd agree with you that it is a bit misleading to the layman.
Where has anyone said that? I don't think anyone expects others to have assiduously read every post in this thread. Maybe an exception if someone is spouting utter nonsense or conspiracy stuff though.Should be less "learn or don't comment" and more learn through commenting. Not much point having a discussion thread if we expect everyone to know as much as everyone else before they post.
You're welcome to leave if you don't like how this place is moderated.If anyone asks for a reliable source I'll gladly provide them with one - I only post official government communicated things anyway and am not one to spread scare mongering on Twitter or any conspiracy theories. However "In the interests of not causing stress because we don't need shock posts", that's just a bullshit explanation. It's just a stone cold fact and not scare mongering or trying to create a shock effect / causing stress to anyone.
I don't know if Grinner is participating in this thread in his capacity as a mod or not but he's trying to monopolize it or leading it into a certain direction and it's definitely not helping, or at least really annoying me. But no problem, I'll provide a source next time - even though I don't see other posters asked for a source if they provide foreign numbers, so he was just doing it because he was annoyed by the "shock effect", not by the fact that it lacked a source.
I can see it's a problem, but I don't think it's a problem a football forum can fix. I don't understand some of the medical information that's posted, but that's ok, some people do - and I can read a summary as well as anyone.I couldn't give two hoots that I didn't understand it, in fact that is exactly the issue, most people won't understand it, and that causes a big problem. When information is being shared to the masses, but they don't understand it, surely you can see how that can be a problem?
Thanks for your reply. Yes, it's outrageous what has gone on here. There was an early first wave of what was called Wuhan Virus and some actions like recommending online work, putting curbs on large scale events etc. However, if anyone tried to tell me that Japan simply did not have enough testing capacity as some Japanese people did, I answered no, sorry, Japan has the means to do it including a national health system that is funded by expensive payments each month from residents including foreigners.@ryansgirl you've been bang on the money re Japan. Just saw that now after Olympics got officially postponed, Tokyo is about to get a lockdown, and cases suddenly spiked.
Yeah fair enough, I'll have it in mind next time!Grinner just asked for a source, as without one a post could be perceived as scaremongering or shock if no-one can gauge the veracity of a story. Both him and jojojo have been consistent on that - no mod is trying to censor unpleasant news here. Fine you cite credible sources, others have been found to have been posting bs, whether inadvertently or not. A link is not a big ask, even if it is in a foreign language.
I don't like how you moderate, there's a difference.You're welcome to leave if you don't like how this place is moderated.
That I don't care about. Just do as you're asked and that'll be fine.Yeah fair enough, I'll have it in mind next time!
I don't like how you moderate, there's a difference.
Yeah I got that, your colleague got the point across in a respectful manner.That I don't care about. Just do as you're asked and that'll be fine.
No but I think it's slightly unfair to say someone should either take the time to learn something new or not make a comment on it at all, as was suggested on the previous page. Arguing about things is a way of learning, not just a way of showing off what you already know. Plus most of the people posting here don't really know much anyway. Some just know slightly more than others, often simply because they've become engaged in the conversation earlier.Where has anyone said that? I don't think anyone expects others to have assiduously read every post in this thread. Maybe an exception if someone is spouting utter nonsense or conspiracy stuff though.
Evidently something can be done, in two minutes, you've gone some way to explain the graph, and it's purpose.I can see it's a problem, but I don't think it's a problem a football forum can fix. I don't understand some of the medical information that's posted, but that's ok, some people do - and I can read a summary as well as anyone.
The graph in question is an example of data that will make sense to the people who are using it daily (like the epidemiologists) and to people who understand the maths, and are interested in the core reasoning behind those expert opinions we hear and the actions spinning out from them.
If you try and present the same data on linear scales - every country looks basically the same. A near horizontal line, followed some days later by a near vertical one - which just means no one can get any information from it. In other words a completely redundant graph that does nothing for anyone.
The issue in a nutshell. If COVID-19 behaved like conventional influenza for example, you might be able to take the risk. However, it is highly contagious and there are even cases where the infected person/s seem to have picked it up from seats, to give one frightening example. We don't know enough yet about transmission processes. Those are only 2 points out of a number that could be made.The problem with the "herd immunity" approach was never that it wouldn't be useful to have a large percentage of the population become immune.
The issues were:
1) We had and maybe still have little reliable information on how likely people are to become infected a second time, which is a pretty huge issue if you're desperately depending on them not doing so.
2) Even countries that were trying their best to suppress the virus were seeing their healthcare systems get overwhelmed, so a more laissez faire approach with the specific aim of building herd immunity would have been a disaster in the short/medium term.
I mean it's fine for whatever scientists to point out that herd immunity would be very useful if immunity works that way in this particular case but I'm not sure what impact that idea is supposed to have on current policy given a health system like the UK's is about to get overrun as is. Of all the problems you're facing right now, a lack of infected patients really isn't one.
I think @Regulus Arcturus Black was living in Sweden and was at least somewhat in favour of their response so he might have a counter-argument.The issue in a nutshell. If COVID-19 behaved like conventional influenza for example, you might be able to take the risk. However, it is highly contagious and there are even cases where the infected person/s seem to have picked it up from seats, to give one frightening example. We don't know enough yet about transmission processes. Those are only 2 points out of a number that could be made.
Sweden seems to be taking a fairly relaxed attitude - no wonder their deaths are higher than those of Australia or Israel even given differences in geography, etc. Again there are questions we can raise about real deal lockdowns but from what I have seen in the news, the govt in Sweden seems irresponsible in its attitude. If anybody lives in Sweden could they please repond?
Well said. I commend your effort in educating the plebs on here.Ok, first of all, there are massive cultural differences between Western Countries, even those in relatively close geographical proximity like the EU. Secondly, I would define collective wellfare of a society aka its people as a whole with the (albeit unrealistic) goal to care for each of its citizen as best as it can.
If I compare the general culture of the US with the one of Nordic and Central European countries like for example Germany the differences are in parts massive. This starts with Universal Healthcare, free education, far stricter labour laws (some of the strictest worldwide), a still imperfect but far stronger social safety net in cases of illness. debt, loss of home or unemployment and the list goes on and on. How can the German state afford all of this? Some of the highest employment costs in the world and taxes. Despite being an ecomonic powerhouse the average German citizen while enjoying a high standart of living is actually non that wealthy, because a lot of his/her income is used to finance the Social state. Programs like "Kurzarbeit" which protect people working in struggling companies/branches from unemployment in times of crisis are accepted by the vast majority of the population eventhough it costs billions of tax payer money. The entire retirement system is based on solidarity for people they will probably never meet which puts it in stark contrast to mid eastern countries like Turkey where the care of the elderly is put far more in the hands of the families or Asian countries like Japan where a lot of the money for the retirement comes directly from the companies they worked for.
Why is all of this largely accepted by the German public? Because culturally it values things the most in difference to other countries.According to studies the one thing that is valued the most in the US is the freedom or liberty to build your own life like you want to do. In Germany? It is safety. This is to a large part historically originated, especially from the first years post WWII, which were plagued by shortages and poverty. Eventhough many actually did not live in that time, it is still an integral part of the education and upbringing. The thought in the back of your mind that you want to be cared for if you fall in hard times and need help. This need for your own safety breeds solidarity for others, to help them in times of need so you might receive help yourself if needed.
It is by no means a more noble cultural outlook than for example the American way of life because it is ultimately motivated by a individual desire for safety, but it leads to a more society orientated thinking.
So which way is now the Western culture? There is none IMO, it is just a buzz word.
To come back to the actual topic of the thread, the desire for safety is one of the reasons why Germany has been less shaken by the virus than other countries. Besides an obvious luck factor especially the younger average age of infected people in the first wave, the German heath system runs nowhere near maximum capacity in normal times, which leaves a lot of reserves in times of crisis. The very high number of ICU beds for example in relation to other countries is simply the desire to prepare for hard times. It is normally nowhere near cost effecitve but if something really bad happens, it can save lifes-
Thank you. I'd like to learn more. Hopefully he will post about it again.I think @Regulus Arcturus Black was living in Sweden and was at least somewhat in favour of their response so he might have a counter-argument.
I'm not so sure.The issue with herd immunity is that a country like Italy has 100k reported cases which represents 0.17% of their population. Even if we assume that cases are under reported and are 5 times that, it's still well below 1% of population. You need at least 60% to be able to talk about herd immunity at all, and maybe even 70%+. It'll be 2023 or something before that happens and we can open Europe for travel etc., considering many countries are in lockdowns and are only getting < 500 cases per day.
I think there's no chance of opening things up before vaccine is found. Even if it means lockdown continues for 12+ months from now. Obviously you will have population resist to it so I'm not sure how this gets resolved. I'm not scared of the virus personally nearly as much as I'm scared about consequences of what is happening now.
Well @ryansgirl, the first thing to understand is that all of the deaths happening now are from cases that happened three weeks ago before any country was locking down, in that sense these were inevitable deaths even if we locked down when England or France did.Thank you. I'd like to learn more. Hopefully he will post about it again.
I previously said learn first or don’t comment but that was directed at people posting ‘safety’ advice that’s conflicting or just reading something once and running to this thread and stating as fact without even checking if there’s any truth to what they readShould be less "learn or don't comment" and more learn through commenting. Not much point having a discussion thread if we expect everyone to know as much as everyone else before they post.
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In the UK it seems pretty pointless because it seems they're only testing once they're in hospital so im guessing there's no accurate way of knowing.Are there any figures on length of time between diagnosis and death? We've all seen reports of unfortunates who've gone from fine to dead in two days but it appears that most victims are in critical for a number of days before succumbing. Is there enough data yet for any meaningful figures?
I'm not sure Korean ways of dealing with this would be possible to replicate in Europe. Certainly not in Poland.I'm not so sure.
I mean South Korea have thus far avoided a severe lockdown at all, let alone been unable to lift it. It's not like it's literally impossible to manage without lockdown.
Obviously countries coming out of lockdown will still have a lot of restrictions in place but with a lot of testing and very targeted measures it should be possible for many of them to get things moving again. Which is the point the WHO have been re-emphasising recently, that lockdown is a second chance to attack the virus with testing and tracing.
More to the point, the more severe lockdowns would be literally impossible to keep in place for 12 months. Aside from the unprecedented damage to the world economy that would cause, social unrest and non-compliance would reach breaking point long before the 12 months was up. Keeping things shut down for 12 months is much more unrealistic than finding a way to start opening things up again, I think.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#daysAre there any figures on length of time between diagnosis and death? We've all seen reports of unfortunates who've gone from fine to dead in two days but it appears that most victims are in critical for a number of days before succumbing. Is there enough data yet for any meaningful figures?
9 days from symptom onset to death. This has increased slightly, it was 8 days last week, possibly as the weaker patients died quickly early on. Also remember the more advanced age of Italian victims.Are there any figures on length of time between diagnosis and death? We've all seen reports of unfortunates who've gone from fine to dead in two days but it appears that most victims are in critical for a number of days before succumbing. Is there enough data yet for any meaningful figures?