SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Carolina Red]

Good luck to her! My ward and almost all wards in my hospital have been made covid units now. I think we will see this in most hospitals in the coming weeks.

Just finished my 8th shift in 11 days and to put it bluntly things are getting worse. Here's a little insight:

Day 1-2: On my first couple days I was hearing of confirmd cases from other wards, areas but still working on my acute medical ward. No suspected cases for me, just another day.
Day 3-4: Had a day off and came back to be moved to Covid-19 triage in ED. Saw on average 12-13 patients a day. Only 2 patients we suspected of Covid-19 but they were not unwell enough to admit so sent them home.
Day 5-6: Been told my ward is closed. Being refurbed and prepared to be a covid-19 unit. All our patients moved into a holding ward where I was also transferred to work. Hearing of multiple deaths from Covid-19 now.
Day 7: Moved to a Covid-19 unit to learn about how we are treating Covid-19 patients, PPE procedures and general experience to feedback to the team. First time in contact with diagnosed positive patients.
Day 8: Moved back to my ward. We are fully Covid-19 now. Only three of us on, two nurses and an HCA. We opened with no patients but full to capacity within 4 hours. We are a 28 bed ward but due to Covid-19 everyone has to be isolated so we only have capacity for 8 patients, 4 bays and 4 siderooms. This will change if we have more than one confirmed positive patient as they can be cohorted together in a bay. All our patients tested and suspected and waiting for results.

Talking to a dcotor, around 70% of their handover from this morning are suspected Covid-19. Now a very small % will be posistive however, any type of cough, spike in temp or respiratory issue is being treated as suspected. For example I have a young person on my ward, 20 year old with tonsillitis, spiked a fever 38c. Lookig quite well, very chatty - now suspected Covid-19. This person will go home today. The whole hospital is full of it now. Other wards are closing to be made into Covid-19 areas. 12 more deaths in the night - its really ramping up now. We are suddenly seeing a lot more confirmed cases but It feels really real now.

I usually treat alot of CCF, CKD, pnuemonia/HAP/CAP/LRTI patients. The latter patients will be made as suspected Covid-19 but I just want to know where the hell have all my CCF and CKD patients gone? They have literally vanished from our hospital and not being admitted.

Stay safe man. I don’t personally know what you’re going through, but I can see it when my wife gets home. Stay as rested as you can and make sure you’re minding your PPE. She’s off today, and will be interested in what you’ve said here, so I’ll show this post to her once she’s up.

 

[Utdstar01]

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Hardly surprising.

 

[Di Maria's angel]

14 year old now the youngest victim.

 

[golden_blunder]

If you are going to worry about that, then you may as well worry about every single item of food you are getting from the shops too.

That’s my thoughts too. I was feeling a bit down yesterday so treated my family to a pizza delivery. You can only pay online, the delivery driver leaves it at your doorstep and calls you to say it’s there. He wore mask and gloves. No contact. Sure, there’s a small chance that you could get something off the boxes but there’s probably just as much chance if not more of getting something in a supermarket.
Anyway the food cheered us up which was great

 

[fergieisold]

14 year old now the youngest victim.

source?

 

[The Firestarter]

14 year old now the youngest victim.

The youngest victim is 1 year old.
Guardian

 

[Arruda]

14 year old now the youngest victim.

The Portuguese one? Damn one of my friends is coordinating things on that hospital. Don't even know what to say to him...

 

[Arruda]

Died in the same day he was admitted. Terriblem

 

[jojojo]

14 year old now the youngest victim.

Please don't post serious news or a new development, without providing a source link.

If you don't have time to provide a source, wait until you do have time to post.

 

[Skills]

The news has slipped me for a while, has the lockdown in Italy helped or not?

It's stopped the exponential growth of new cases. But they're still seeing about 5k new cases per day.

 

[fergieisold]

The Portuguese one? Damn one of my friends is coordinating things on that hospital. Don't even know what to say to him...

Just to add he had a medical condition that can impact the immune system. Very sad but don't want to be frightening people that are young and in good health.

 

[dwd]

10% recovery rate in the UK now

 

[The Firestarter]

@ryansgirl you've been bang on the money re Japan. Just saw that now after Olympics got officially postponed, Tokyo is about to get a lockdown, and cases suddenly spiked.

 

[Adamsk7]

There’s still not enough info on who died OF Covid 19 compared to who died WITH it. Death is tragic in any circumstances but I feel this would fill in blanks in a similar way to the testing of asymptomatic.

Like if it spread in a ward or already critically ill patients, their death seems to be noted as “Covid 19” when a good portion of those people would have sadly succumbed to whatever illness they were already being treated for.

 

[Arruda]

Just to add he had a medical condition that can impact the immune system. Very sad but don't want to be frightening people that are young and in good health.

It's important to provide that information (haven't confirmed it, just got home), but I do want young and healthy people worried. Fear is protective, for the entire society.

 

[Arruda]

Just to add he had a medical condition that can impact the immune system. Very sad but don't want to be frightening people that are young and in good health.

He had severe psoriasis. Not exactly an immunodeficiency, they are at increased risk for some diseases, but to my knowledge infections aren't one of them (except skin, obviously).

Might have been something like a cytokine storm, the type that killed younger people in Spanish Flu. It was so fast... Merely speculating in this paragraph.

 

[Hugh Jass]

If you are going to worry about that, then you may as well worry about every single item of food you are getting from the shops too.

Agreed. I only do one week shopping now and try to not touch my face until i have washed my hands.

 

[Di Maria's angel]

The Portuguese one? Damn one of my friends is coordinating things on that hospital. Don't even know what to say to him...

Yes, thats the one.

 

[arnie_ni]

14 year old now the youngest victim.

Could you provide sources when you post like this please so we can read them?

 

[OnlyTwoDaSilvas]

He had severe psoriasis. Not exactly an immunodeficiency, they are at increased risk for some diseases, but to my knowledge infections aren't one of them (except skin, obviously).

The disease itself won't put you at increased risk of infection, but Psoriasis is treated with immuno-suppressing medicines, which certainly do increase risk of infection. If it was severe, then he may have been on multiple immuno-suppressants.

 

[Grinner]

I'm glad we have plenty of smart posters here who can counter the scaremongering and sensationalism so quickly. But @Arruda isn't wrong that yoof need to be shite scared too.

 

[Di Maria's angel]

Could you provide sources when you post like this please so we can read them?

Apologies.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...var-near-Porto.html?__twitter_impression=true

 

[fergieisold]

It's important to provide that information (haven't confirmed it, just got home), but I do want young and healthy people worried. Fear is protective, for the entire society.

I think young people should show a level of concern but not panic and certainly not read too much into the media loving the narrative of 'another young fit and healthy person dead' headlines. On further investigation most of those articles are likely inaccurate in my opinion.

He had severe psoriasis. Not exactly an immunodeficiency, they are at increased risk for some diseases, but to my knowledge infections aren't one of them (except skin, obviously).

Might have been something like a cytokine storm, the type that killed younger people in Spanish Flu. It was so fast... Merely speculating in this paragraph.

A quick google and you might be right. the condition actually is caused by an over active immune system, so a cytokine storm might be the explanation!

 

[Snafu17]

I'm glad we have plenty of smart posters here who can counter the scaremongering and sensationalism so quickly. But @Arruda isn't wrong that yoof need to be shite scared too.

Nobody needs to be shite scared. If you act responsibly and follow the advice from experts you'll very likely be fine.

 

[Grinner]

Nobody needs to be shite scared. If you act responsibly and follow the experts advice you'll very likely be fine.

Shite scared into following the expert advice is what I mean.

 

[redshaw]

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Yesterday, 120,776 tested
103,687 negative.
17,089 positive.
1019 total died

7k tested but maybe NHS staff are making it 10k?

 

[Pagh Wraith]

Another expert in Germany has come out against lockdowns because they endanger herd immunity and have severe social consequences. This time, a hospital director and deputy coordinator for emerging infections at the German Center for Infection Research. I've made a few of these posts in the last week as I think it is very imporant to highlight this side of the argument. I can't speak for other countries but it is really noticeable in German media how many virologists and other experts from the world of science seem to be in agreement about this.

My own translation of the key parts:

"Caring for the mentally ill has become more difficult, the family situation in confined spaces holds extreme potential for conflict and an economic crisis has a direct impact on the mortality rate. The longer these measures last, the worse it will get."

"Without a vaccine, which won't be available before 2021, the uncontrolled spread of the virus can only be stopped if a sufficient number of people have developed immunity. If not, the epidemic will reignite every time we loosen the restrictions. We have to allow those for whom the virus poses the least danger to immunise by getting infected."

"Children as well as most of their young parents aren't high-risk groups. The faster this group gets infected, the better. That's why daycare centres and schools should reopen soon."

"I'm in discourse with many colleages from very different disciplines who think similarly. We agree that we cannot solely look at Corona. If we do, we will cause a lot of damage. Many people are going to suffer and die because the number of hospital beds will be reduced, because social and medical services won't work anymore, because people have to live alone and others jammed together, because careers and lifes will be endangered."

Source (in German)

 

[TMDaines]

I'm glad we have plenty of smart posters here who can counter the scaremongering and sensationalism so quickly. But @Arruda isn't wrong that yoof need to be shite scared too.

Young people dying are still statistical outliers. If you're young and you have no underlying health issues, I'm not sure what there is to "shite scared" about. Do you live your life in fear of all improbable events? Respect the situation, take all necessary and proportional precautions, but don't become irrational. We are going to require young, healthy people to lead the volunteering effort.

 

[TMDaines]

Another expert in Germany has come out against lockdowns because they endanger herd immunity and have severe social consequences. This time a hospital director and deputy coordinator for emerging infections at the German Center for Infection Research. I've made a few of these posts in the last week as I think it is very imporant to highlight this side of the argument. I can't speak for other countries but it is really noticeable in German media how many virologists and other experts from the world of science seem to be in agreement about this.

My own translation of the key parts:

"Caring for the mentally ill has become more difficult, the family situation in confined spaces holds extreme potential for conflict and an economic crisis has a direct impact on the mortality rate. The longer these measures last, the worse it will get."

"Without a vaccine, which won't be available before 2021, the uncontrolled spread of the virus can only be stopped if a sufficient number of people have developed immunity. If not, the epidemic will reignite every time we loosen the restrictions. We have to allow those for whom the virus poses the least danger to immunise by getting infected."

"Children as well as most of their young parents aren't high-risk groups. The faster this group gets infected, the better. That's why daycare centres and schools should reopen soon."

"I'm in discourse with many colleages from very different disciplines who think similarly. We agree that we cannot solely look at Corona. If we do, we will cause a lot of damage. Many people are going to suffer and die because the number of hospital beds will be reduced, because social and medical services won't work anymore, because people have to live alone and others jammed together, because careers and lifes will be endangered."

Source (in German)

I think this is a given behind many closed doors, but not many senior figures are willing to make the argument publicly, because it is too easy to spin as politicians engaging in "eugenics" and the like, as we saw from this very thread earlier. I've never been in doubt that our way out of this will be via the public becoming steadily infected and recovering, which makes those most vulnerable safer. People are terrified of being near those who are contagious, but the irony is that in a further fortnight's time those people will be the best people to be around!

 

[arnie_ni]

Another expert in Germany has come out against lockdowns because they endanger herd immunity and have severe social consequences. This time, a hospital director and deputy coordinator for emerging infections at the German Center for Infection Research. I've made a few of these posts in the last week as I think it is very imporant to highlight this side of the argument. I can't speak for other countries but it is really noticeable in German media how many virologists and other experts from the world of science seem to be in agreement about this.

My own translation of the key parts:

"Caring for the mentally ill has become more difficult, the family situation in confined spaces holds extreme potential for conflict and an economic crisis has a direct impact on the mortality rate. The longer these measures last, the worse it will get."

"Without a vaccine, which won't be available before 2021, the uncontrolled spread of the virus can only be stopped if a sufficient number of people have developed immunity. If not, the epidemic will reignite every time we loosen the restrictions. We have to allow those for whom the virus poses the least danger to immunise by getting infected."

"Children as well as most of their young parents aren't high-risk groups. The faster this group gets infected, the better. That's why daycare centres and schools should reopen soon."

"I'm in discourse with many colleages from very different disciplines who think similarly. We agree that we cannot solely look at Corona. If we do, we will cause a lot of damage. Many people are going to suffer and die because the number of hospital beds will be reduced, because social and medical services won't work anymore, because people have to live alone and others jammed together, because careers and lifes will be endangered."

Source (in German)

Can someone explained to me how every person under 70 with no underlying health issues getting infected stops those elderly or with health conditions from dying?

Will the virus suddenly just disappear?

 

[Withnail]

Can someone explained to me how every person under 70 with no underlying health issues getting infected stops those elderly or with health conditions from dying?

Will the virus suddenly just disappear?

Yeah I don't really follow the logic either.

I'm also not sure why continued isolation will put more pressure on the health services or am I reading that wrong?

 

[Foxbatt]

Has anyone seen Robert T Leonard parody of Tom Jones Help Yourself?

 

[Pagh Wraith]

I think this is a given behind many closed doors, but not many senior figures are willing to make the argument publicly, because it is too easy to spin as politicians engaging in "eugenics" and the like, as we saw from this very thread earlier. I've never been in doubt that our way out of this will be via the public becoming steadily infected and recovering, which makes those most vulnerable safer. People are terrified of being near those who are contagious, but the irony is that in a further fortnight's time those people will be the best people to be around!

Politicians and governments don't want to be accused of underreacting to this crisis which is understandable. But it seems this has led to a race of who can impose the most draconian sorts of measures. In Germany, this has very much been the case between the minister presidents of the states.

It is kind of interesting following this thread and talking to friends and people around me (who I think are similar demographically and in terms of their views). The sentiment on here is very much pro lockdown. Whereas people I talk to are very critical of the measures in place even though we of course all follow the rules. Whether that is because of the UK's initial response which has scared everyone or because Germans value their civil liberties more or have more trust in their medical system, I don't know. But it is striking.

 

[senorgregster]

Can someone explained to me how every person under 70 with no underlying health issues getting infected stops those elderly or with health conditions from dying?

Will the virus suddenly just disappear?

It's the same concept as how vaccines work. Get a sufficient number of individuals immune and the virus no longer has the ability to jump from host to host because there's too few non-immune individuals nearby. It's why vaccines against measles etc are so important. Keep the vaccination pressure on and eventually eradicate the disease.

 

[Pagh Wraith]

Can someone explained to me how every person under 70 with no underlying health issues getting infected stops those elderly or with health conditions from dying?

Will the virus suddenly just disappear?

The argument is that with no vaccine in sight, lockdowns merely postpone the problem. As soon as the restrictions are lifted, people will get infected again. Developing immunity through infection is key to dealing with this, this is what experts seem to agree on. So young, healthy people may as well get infected now in a controlled way and then go back to work. Because if they don't, the economic impact will be disastrous and cause many more people to die.

 

[Kentonio]

Saw on the Guardian that’s Italy and France don’t count deaths at home or in nursing homes in their Corona deaths statistics. That’s fecking scary.

 

[vodrake]

Saw on the Guardian that’s Italy and France don’t count deaths at home or in nursing homes in their Corona deaths statistics. That’s fecking scary.

Its the same in the uk isn't it? The Department of Health's tweets always state "Of those hospitalised in the UK, x have sadly died".

Implication being only those who died in hospital are counted

 

[senorgregster]

If anyone is inclined. Various clinical trials. As of today, 200+.

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?cond=Sars-cov2&term=&cntry=&state=&city=&dist=

 

[sullydnl]

The problem with the "herd immunity" approach was never that it wouldn't be useful to have a large percentage of the population become immune.

The issues were:

1) We had and maybe still have little reliable information on how likely people are to become infected a second time, which is a pretty huge issue if you're desperately depending on them not doing so.

2) Even countries that were trying their best to suppress the virus were seeing their healthcare systems get overwhelmed, so a more laissez faire approach with the specific aim of building herd immunity would have been a disaster in the short/medium term.

I mean it's fine for whatever scientists to point out that herd immunity would be very useful if immunity works that way in this particular case but I'm not sure what impact that idea is supposed to have on current policy given a health system like the UK's is about to get overrun as is. Of all the problems you're facing right now, a lack of infected patients really isn't one.

 

[Ekkie Thump]

The argument is that with no vaccine in sight, lockdowns merely postpone the problem. As soon as the restrictions are lifted, people will get infected again. Developing immunity through infection is key to dealing with this, this is what experts seem to agree on. So young, healthy people may as well get infected now in a controlled way and then go back to work. Because if they don't, the economic impact will be disastrous and cause many more people to die.

The one thing that a lockdown will do is provide a space within which a nation's health service and society in general can better prepare. It can build/source more ventilators, train more staff in the basics, create stockpiles of protective equipment, build new temporary wards, find and make more beneficial treatments etc. The testing and isolation capacity can be increased and response can also be enforced more rigorously upon reopening. I don't think a lockdown can go on in perpetuity or that a series of them is particularly healthy but I do think that there are benefits to having at least one in countries that are in danger of finding themselves overwhelmed at such an early stage.