SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Fully Fledged

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At the risk of sounding an idiot, if you are turning away 'barn-door' cases from testing, and only testing those who are been admitted in to hospital becasue they are suspected of having it, and deemed so serious they need hospital care, then why are 80 % plus testing negative, what are they actually suffering from instead?
It is still flu season and people can get seriously ill and die from that.
 

JPRouve

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It is still flu season and people can get seriously ill and die from that.
On that topic, I have been wondering about how we are going to deal with the flu in the future. Until recently when the flu was suspected you were not tested or isolated unless if you end up at the hospital but with Covid19 having the same symptoms are we going to systematically test anyone that has flu symptoms? That would susbstantially increase labs workload.
 

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I've been updating it, user RedSky created it a while back.

Added in Germany and USA. Germany tracking quite close to France, hadn't noticed that before.


United Kingdom
Dates​
UK
Deaths​
Italy Dates​
Italy Deaths​
Spain Dates​
Spain Deaths​
France Dates​
France Deaths​
Germany
Dates​
Germany
Deaths​
USA Dates​
USA Deaths​
Mar 8th​
3​
Feb-23rd​
3​
Mar 5th​
3​
Mar 2nd​
3​
Mar 11th​
3​
Mar 1st​
2​
Mar 9th​
5​
Feb 24th​
7​
Mar 6th​
8​
Mar 3rd​
4​
Mar 12th​
5​
Mar 2nd​
6​
Mar 10th​
6​
Feb 25th​
11​
Mar 7th​
10​
Mar 4th​
4​
Mar 13th​
8​
Mar 3rd​
9​
Mar 11th​
8​
Feb 26th​
12​
Mar 8th​
17​
Mar 5th​
7​
Mar 14th​
8​
Mar 4th​
11​
Mar 12th​
10​
Feb 27th​
17​
Mar 9th​
30​
Mar 6th​
9​
Mar 15th​
12​
Mar 5th​
11​
Mar 13th​
11​
Feb 28th​
21​
Mar 10th​
36​
Mar 7th​
16​
Mar 16th​
12​
Mar 6th​
14​
Mar 14th​
21​
Feb 29th​
29​
Mar 11th​
55​
Mar 8th​
19​
Mar 17th​
12​
Mar 7th​
19​
Mar 15th​
35​
Mar 1st​
41​
Mar 12th​
86​
Mar 9th​
30​
Mar 18th​
12​
Mar 8th​
21​
Mar 16th​
55​
Mar 2nd​
52​
Mar 13th​
133​
Mar 10th​
33​
Mar 19th​
20​
Mar 9th​
26​
Mar 17th​
71​
Mar 3rd​
79​
Mar 14th​
196​
Mar 11th​
48​
Mar 20th​
31​
Mar 10th​
31​
Mar 18th​
104​
Mar 4th​
107​
Mar 15th​
294​
Mar 12th​
61​
Mar 21st​
47​
Mar 11th​
37​
Mar 19th​
144​
Mar 5th​
148​
Mar 16th​
342​
Mar 13th​
79​
Mar-22nd​
55​
Mar 12th​
41​
Mar 20th​
177​
Mar 6th​
197​
Mar 17th​
533​
Mar 14th​
91​
Mar 23rd​
86​
Mar 13th​
49​
Mar 21st​
233​
Mar 7th​
233​
Mar 18th​
638​
Mar 15th​
127​
Mar 24th​
114​
Mar 14th​
55​
Mar 22nd​
281​
Mar 8th​
366​
Mar 19th​
833​
Mar 16th​
148​
Mar 25th​
149​
Mar 15th​
62​
Mar 23rd​
335​
Mar 9th​
463​
Mar 20th​
1,093​
Mar 17th​
175​
Mar 26th​
198​
Mar 16th​
76​
Mar 24th​
422​
Mar 10th​
631​
Mar 21st​
1,381​
Mar 18th​
244​
Mar 27th​
253​
Mar 17th​
97​
Mar 25th​
468​
Mar 11th​
827​
Mar 22nd​
1,813​
Mar 19th​
372​
Mar 28th​
325​
Mar 18th​
123​
Mar 26th​
578​
Mar 12th​
1,016​
Mar 23rd​
2,207​
Mar 20th​
450​
Mar 29th​
Mar19th​
175​
Mar 27th​
759​
Mar 13th​
1,266​
Mar 24th​
2,696​
Mar 21st​
562​
Mar 30th​
Mar 20th​
230​
Mar 28th​
1,019​
Mar 14th​
1,441​
Mar 25th​
3,434​
Mar 22nd​
674​
Mar 21st​
298​
Mar 29th​
Mar 15th​
1,809​
Mar 26th​
4,145​
Mar 23rd​
860​
Mar 22nd​
408​
Mar 16th​
2,158​
Mar 27th​
4,858​
Mar 24th​
1100​
Mar 23rd​
519​
Mar 17th​
2,503​
Mar 28th​
5,690​
Mar 25th​
1331​
Mar 24th​
681​
Mar 18th​
2,978​
Mar 29th​
Mar 26th​
1,696​
Mar 25th​
906​
Mar 19th​
3,405​
Mar 27th​
1,995​
Mar 26th​
1,159​
Mar 20th​
4,032​
Mar 28th​
2,314​
Mar 27th​
1,476​
Mar 21st​
Mar 29th​
Mar 28th​






This is very useful. Perhaps you could put it in the stickied info thread and update that post daily. Cheers.
 

Lee565

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I thought all take away places had been ordered to closed, down the road from me a kebab shop, chip shop and curry takeaway place were all open and allowing customers inside whilst waiting for their food?

Im surprised people are still taking such a chance with ordering take away seeing as there is the potential for their food being handled without the proper hygiene requirements by someone that may have the virus.
 

Lennon7

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I thought all take away places had been ordered to closed, down the road from me a kebab shop, chip shop and curry takeaway place were all open and allowing customers inside whilst waiting for their food?

Im surprised people are still taking such a chance with ordering take away seeing as there is the potential for their food being handled without the proper hygiene requirements by someone that may have the virus.
No, restaurants were ordered to close. Takeaway was specifically allowed - if not the majority would go under within a fortnight. In fact a lot of restaurants that’d never normally do takeaway are now being forced to do so.

A lot I’ve seen only allow one person in a time to collect, and services like Uber Eats only do delivery
 

Redlambs

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I thought all take away places had been ordered to closed, down the road from me a kebab shop, chip shop and curry takeaway place were all open and allowing customers inside whilst waiting for their food?

Im surprised people are still taking such a chance with ordering take away seeing as there is the potential for their food being handled without the proper hygiene requirements by someone that may have the virus.
If you are going to worry about that, then you may as well worry about every single item of food you are getting from the shops too.
 

jojojo

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At the risk of sounding an idiot, if you are turning away 'barn-door' cases from testing, and only testing those who are been admitted in to hospital becasue they are suspected of having it, and deemed so serious they need hospital care, then why are 80 % plus testing negative, what are they actually suffering from instead?
In the winter, flu is the obvious one. But pneumonia can have other origins - bacterial and viral - particularly for people with weakened immune systems or chronic conditions like COPD. Sometimes it's a complication (often the final complication) of a condition like MND.

Hence why some early cases seen by individual doctors wouldn't have stood out, you'd only notice as the number of cases rose or symptom patterns changed, or if tests for other things don't give expected results.
 

sglowrider

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On that topic, I have been wondering about how we are going to deal with the flu in the future. Until recently when the flu was suspected you were not tested or isolated unless if you end up at the hospital but with Covid19 having the same symptoms are we going to systematically test anyone that has flu symptoms? That would susbstantially increase labs workload.
I think the inability to breathe would be a dead giveaway
 

Fully Fledged

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On that topic, I have been wondering about how we are going to deal with the flu in the future. Until recently when the flu was suspected you were not tested or isolated unless if you end up at the hospital but with Covid19 having the same symptoms are we going to systematically test anyone that has flu symptoms? That would susbstantially increase labs workload.
It certainly would. I don't know where we go from here without 10,000's of people dying in every major country in the world which will be a major catastrophe.

I think that in the future we need labs not so much to look for flu but to look for possible new virus mutations so that we can react quicker to any possible threat in the future and isolate the mutated virus before it is able to spread significantly.
 

Jippy

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I'm fine myself, thanks, but having an absolute nightmare of a time with my mum who just won't behave. She's not taking this serious at all which is frustrating. :(
Same. My mother has serious health issues, so is classed 'extremely vulnerable', but doesn't buy anything online and near her the supermarket queues are massive.
I'm sending her gloves and masks, but she won't wear the masks cos 'no-one in Hull is wearing them' and she'll look daft ffs.
 

Rado_N

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Our business has been advised it's 80% of the £2500 cap (or £2k max), not 80% of £3125. The government website is vague but Sunak did say it was 80% of UK median earnings, which is around £30k per annum (not £37.5k)

Footballers would absolutely quit if their salaries were reduced by a factor of up to several hundred.
It’s 80% or £2.5k whichever is lower

“At a minimum, employers must pay their employee the lower of 80% of their regular wage or £2,500 per month.”
Thank you. That was my understanding.

On the footballers aspect, no point arguing that @finneh

The initial guidance on this was very unclear and even the ICAEW interpreted it incorrectly, but yes the £2,500 is the max payment to the employee that will be covered by the grant. The employer can then claim the employers NIC and (minimum) auto enrolment pension contribution on top.
 

JPRouve

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I think the inability to breathe would be a dead giveaway
It's not. It happens with the flu too in particular among the older part of the population. Covid19 has nothing special in terms of symptoms, the only way to know if you have it is by testing.
 

Blackwidow

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That’s the best graph like this I’ve seen. Thanks for sharing. The number of cases has become more or less useless to compare countries but adding the deaths/100k gives a really useful perspective.
That is what I thought when I saw this, too. The usual graphs or tables that take the numbers only nominal starting with x days did not really satisfy me.
 

Alabaster Codify7

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Lockdown could potentially last until June then in the UK.

Yeah Boris has been dropping the 12weeks thing here and there for a while, to properly get on top of the worst of the virus.

I think lockdown will start easing around mid-May, slightly. People to be back in work in June, that's my prediction anyway.
 

arnie_ni

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The initial guidance on this was very unclear and even the ICAEW interpreted it incorrectly, but yes the £2,500 is the max payment to the employee that will be covered by the grant. The employer can then claim the employers NIC and (minimum) auto enrolment pension contribution on top.
Yea that's how i understood it and my employer understood it. Its what we were advising clients before we closed.

Is your firm still open?
 

horsechoker

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Yeah Boris has been dropping the 12weeks thing here and there for a while, to properly get on top of the worst of the virus.

I think lockdown will start easing around mid-May, slightly. People to be back in work in June, that's my prediction anyway.
I think every lockdown will need to be ended in stages, can't just have everyone mingling together. It will probably end up being 3 months but with gradual relaxation from 4-6 weeks.
 

Rado_N

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Yea that's how i understood it and my employer understood it. Its what we were advising clients before we closed.

Is your firm still open?
We’re operating but the offices have been closed to staff since Monday and everyone is WFH, how about you?
 

jojojo

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On that topic, I have been wondering about how we are going to deal with the flu in the future. Until recently when the flu was suspected you were not tested or isolated unless if you end up at the hospital but with Covid19 having the same symptoms are we going to systematically test anyone that has flu symptoms? That would susbstantially increase labs workload.
Maybe (given we're unlikely to have a safety tested vaccine for Covid19 within the year) we'll head down the opposite track - and look at mass vaccination with the best flu virus mix for next winter as an essential. That might reduce the routine burden of flu on hospitals and offer more breathing space.

The other game changers will be home test kits for Covid19 antibodies and for active virus. Again, that's maybe many months down the line, so everything we do right now is about buying time. It's also incidentally, utterly dependant on keeping the economy stable. The level of interdependency between different industries and the underpinning infrastructure services gets massively underestimated when people try to visualise what essential work looks like - particularly in a lockdown that lasts more than a couple of weeks.
 

JPRouve

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Maybe (given we're unlikely to have a safety tested vaccine for Covid19 within the year) we'll head down the opposite track - and look at mass vaccination with the best flu virus mix for next winter as an essential. That might reduce the routine burden of flu on hospitals and offer more breathing space.

The other game changers will be home test kits for Covid19 antibodies and for active virus. Again, that's maybe many months down the line, so everything we do right now is about buying time. It's also incidentally, utterly dependant on keeping the economy stable. The level of interdependency between different industries and the underpinning infrastructure services gets massively underestimated when people try to visualise what essential work looks like - particularly in a lockdown that lasts more than a couple of weeks.
You are probably onto something, I forgot about Flu vaccines. I also imagine that we are going to see improvements in the tests techniques with the goal of increasing volumes, the faster and easier it is to test people the easier it is to contain a pandemic. The good thing about this pandemic is that a lot of people now realize how much we need to improve in terms of logistics, we need to be better at collaborating and more efficient when it comes to get and share information(I include testing in information).
 

Withnail

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When it regards graphs about the development of the different countries I like the following:



The x-axis shows the confirmed cases per 100,000 inhabits, the y-axis the deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. The little numbers near the flags tell the number of days the cases have doubled recently.
Thanks for posting.

I've been looking for something like this. Ireland not look so good in that context.

Did you do it yourself or is it from a website which will be updated?

If so, can you post a link?
 

sullydnl

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Then what do you do when you get the second wave? Lockdown again?
I don't think you really get a second attempt at an Italian style lockdown. Obviously a lot of restrictions will remain and some could be brought back but trying to shut things down completely a second time would likely see social unrest and less compliance, in the same way that trying to maintain the first beyond a certain point would.

According to the WHO testing and contact tracing will be key in determining what happens after the first lockdown and avoiding too high a second peak. Which is what Tedros means when he warns countries not to waste their second chance at fighting the virus (the lockdown) in the same way they did the first.
 

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Daily US update (useful interactive map after the jump): https://graphics.reuters.com/HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS-USA/0100B5K8423/index.html
123,329 from midnight this AM.

Chicago is racing ahead to join New Orleans and Detroit as new hotspots. I don’t know what happened in Detroit, with Chicago it just seemed like it was a matter of time.

Colorado has a fairly high number relative to population. They had some risk factors like people hitting the ski slopes one last time. Texas is still relatively low; I don’t know if the oil industry going into a tailspin at the start of this helped with people staying at home, but I don’t think that would explain all of it.
 

nimic

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I remember seeing Dr Zelenko talk about this treatment days ago. I think it's disgusting that people are trying to shove this under the carpet. Some governors are even banning it. The below tweet sums it up best.

That's how science works. You test things first, and then if the tests work you go "nice! Let's do it!" You say the tweet says it best, and you're right, but for the wrong reasons. This is how it's supposed to work:

a bunch of idiots immediately say they are banning it, only to reverse themselves after trials prove positive.
 
Last edited:

africanspur

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I remember seeing Dr Zelenko talk about this treatment days ago. I think it's disgusting that people are trying to shove this under the carpet. Some governors are even banning it. The below tweet sums it up best.

Don't mean to be an ass but do you know how clinical trials work? Did you read the French study regarding the treatments?

It is difficult to just give medications if there is little evidence because pretty much no medication is without risk.

It is important to note that those medications are now undergoing a shortage because some countries have been giving it (without the necessary evidence) and people who need it for their conditions and where it has actual proven efficacy (lupus for instance) are finding it difficult to get a hold of.
 

VorZakone

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The news has slipped me for a while, has the lockdown in Italy helped or not?
 

nimic

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It is important to note that those medications are now undergoing a shortage because some countries have been giving it (without the necessary evidence) and people who need it for their conditions and where it has actual proven efficacy (lupus for instance) are finding it difficult to get a hold of.
Some Norwegian doctors have been prescribing it to themselves and their families and friends, which is a big no-no, particularly after the authorities made it a more restricted prescription to safeguard the supplies in case the trials turn out well (and obviously for people who actually already need it for other conditions). Some of them will hopefully be in a little bit of trouble.
 

Hugh Jass

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I thought all take away places had been ordered to closed, down the road from me a kebab shop, chip shop and curry takeaway place were all open and allowing customers inside whilst waiting for their food?

Im surprised people are still taking such a chance with ordering take away seeing as there is the potential for their food being handled without the proper hygiene requirements by someone that may have the virus.
This is what worries me. My sister said that if you wear gloves and then take the items out of the packaging and then wash your hands you should be ok.

I am not taking the chance though and i love pizza at the weekend.

I could murder a whopper too.