Doesn’t seem like a great idea but this is encouraging if true:
Fingers crossed this turns out to be accurate.
Don't be naive. Pharmaceutical companies aren't charities, all they want is to develop a vaccine asap and maximize profits. Safety is important only for their reputation, and they will certainly do nothing more than required to harm their interests.
We can’t know for certain though. Lots of other, similar, viruses are seasonal. It’s definitely possible the virus finds it harder to survive outside the body in warm, sunny weather. Plus - lockdown restrictions aside - the more time people spend outdoors the fewer opportunities the virus has to transmit. I’ve also heard theories that summer transmission is low because that’s when Vitamin D levels peak.
There's definitely some fair points there - testing has increased, and is increasingly targeted at places where they know there are outbreaks, so the raw numbers might be misleading. At the same time, there are still several very significant outbreaks being found, so we don't have this thing under control by a long stretch.Tweet
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I don’t agree with a lot of this but feck it, the last few pages have been one downer after another so this has to be worth a read, in the interest of balance.
The peak deaths were around 1.000 a day, so of course peak infections were around 100.000 a day. This has been known for months already.Tweet
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I don’t agree with a lot of this but feck it, the last few pages have been one downer after another so this has to be worth a read, in the interest of balance.
We’ve know that initial cases were a huge underestimate but this is the first time I’ve seen a figure put on it. We still don’t have a very good grasp of the IFR, so any estimates made several months ago are likely to be a lot less accurate.
Oh I think it’s undoubtedly true outside in the sun the risk of transmission is far lower than inside. I guess we don’t know if it’s the same outside in winter. I just don’t agree seasonality is why this second wave was predicted though. It was predicted because we weren’t going to stay locked down forever and as more sections of society were reopened cases were inevitably going to go up. It’ll actually be fascinating to see flu hospitalisations this winter with the social distancing/PH interventions that are going on. There’s definitely an argument that they could be far less.
I would say there is enough data to put at 0.6-1.0% (let's say 90-95% confidence level). No reason to think it is over 1.5%. And lower it is more infections there were in March.
It's probably true, for example France currently does 20 times more daily tests compared to March-April. It kinds of make comparisons difficult.Tweet
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I don’t agree with a lot of this but feck it, the last few pages have been one downer after another so this has to be worth a read, in the interest of balance.
Yeah, that sounds about right. The age profile thing is interesting. We keep reading about how much more young people are being infected now than in the initial months but it’s possible that the age profile is exactly the same, only younger/healthier people are getting tested now when they didn’t before.
No. The old are obviously shielding better, so age profile has changed for certain.
I don’t think you can be certain about that.
I am 100% sure of that. I doubt I can convince you of that without wasting too much of my time. So no need to continue this further this time
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There's a team in the states that have a test like this already. I'd have to find the reference, but I think the day shows it's basically as good as the swab test in the period when you're most infectious, around symptom onset.
And also disproportionately do jobs which they're being forced back into that make them more vulnerable. Far easier to avoid the virus if you don't have to go to work in a restaurant/shop/factory/enviroment that employers claim is 'covid secure' because they're desperate to be open.
My faith in the general public is so low I fully expect there would be people going out whilst knowing they’re positive
100%. Although you’d think there must be a way to show proof of negative test to gain entry to crowded places. Maybe your test results get displayed on a smartphone app? Could even do it via tapping in, tapping out using NFC.
Just a difference of opinion. To be fair, it should have all been over - what exactly are we waiting for right now? Going in loops, doing the same things and expecting something different to happen. "Everyone go back to your lives (which we all have to do), OH NO! More cases! Everyone go back home". And repeat... Apparently this isn't the sane opinion, but I've yet to meet someone in person who doesn't agree. Maybe that's just Scotland? What's the plan? Fanny around indefinitely waiting for the cure?!
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What part of Dublin are you from ?
Clampers and Traffic wardens
Same here, less than a week in school and they are both laid up this week, sniffles & coughs.
It is another clusterfeck.
The thing I don’t get with this theory is why did it suddenly spike from March onwards and start killing thousands per day? Why wasn‘t it equally as contagious and have the same spread in January?
They suggested albeit at a lesser extent that any illnesses didn't count as Covid and there was no testing in place whatsoever.
Yeah definitely not short on anecdotal evidence. A mate from Uni came down with viral pneumonia in early January and took weeks and weeks to shift it.
The little Hitlers will be all over these job applications.
The fact that most of Europe peaked in deaths around 10th April has always had me convinced that much of the virus was already spreading around many cities unnoticed until everyone’s eyes turned on Italy.
There is alot of assumption in your post. But I'll say the same to you as I did to Manuarfa.
