SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Pogue Mahone]

Hospital employees with no symptoms so probably tested regularly. No chance of false positives there? Funnily, that link mentions Manaus with no mention of infection being on the rise just three days ago.

I don’t think false positives are an issue when they sequence the virus, which is what they did here. The fact they’re hospital employees is important though. Because if they weren’t getting regular testing like this they’d never have known they got reinfected. Which is why I think the cases we hear about are the tip of the iceberg.

To be honest, I’m not too worried so long as repeat infections are mild like these. Immunity doesn’t have to be total. If it takes the edge off second and subsequent infections that makes the virus a hell of a lot easier to live with (even though it rules out viral eradication as a strategy).

The Manaus study mentioned here is referenced in the other link I posted. It was the basis for them assuming they might be close to herd immunity. Which the recent surge is calling into question.

 

[acnumber9]

I don’t think false positives are an issue when they sequence the virus, which is what they did here. The fact they’re hospital employees is important though. Because if they weren’t getting regular testing like this they’d never have known they got reinfected. Which is why I think the cases we hear about are the tip of the iceberg.

To be honest, I’m not too worried so long as repeat infections are mild like these. Immunity doesn’t have to be total. If it takes the edge off second and subsequent infections that makes the virus a hell of a lot easier to live with (even though it rules out viral eradication as a strategy).

The Manaus study mentioned here is referenced in the other link I posted. It was the basis for them assuming they might be close to herd immunity. Which the recent surge is calling into question.

Yeah, that’s probably fair enough. I think lessening the effects of the virus would be considered a win.

 

[Wibble]

The only ones I’m calling as definite are when they sequence the virus and prove that the second infection was by a different virus to the first. They all seem to be quite recent.

There’s been a load of other examples of someone testing positive again, weeks after recovering - earlier on in the pandemic - which were assumed to be false positives because of viral debris being shedded even though the active infection had resolved. Now we know for sure that reinfection can happen it does make you wonder about those earlier cases too.

I’m also not sure that a vaccine will trigger a more dramatic immune response than an infection. I always assumed that an infection was the best possible way to trigger an immune response. You don’t see kids needing boosters after they catch chicken pox!

I'm not sure about that as my mate had chickenpox 3 times (all mild). Admittedly data point = 1(or 3).

I'm sure there are cases of reinfection but with so many infected and a million+ dead it is likely very rare.

And given that asymptomatic/low level symptomstic people may have kicked off the infection without antibodies or T-cells being developed it isn't unexpected that a decent vaccine, especially with a booster shot, may exceed the natural immune reaction. Where this isn't the case it is because the immune response to a natural viral infection is both usual and strong.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Ok. Time to be a bit less doom and gloom. This is an absolute cracker of a Twitter thread on where we are with vaccines. Some of it might be a bit technical if you’re not that way inclined but you skim through to get the gist of what he’s saying. Worth sticking with until the end. Honest. It’s actually kind of optimistic.

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[Tony Babangida]

They’re definitely genuine.

Yeah the reinfections confirmed by sequencing are definitely genuine. If they are predominantly asymptomatic the second time then I don't think it is a cause for concern. It is good that the virus has a different name to the disease, because it helps to remember that the former does not always result in the latter. The amount of diagnostic testing for SARS-CoV-2 massievely exceeds any other that for any other infectious agent ever. Would be interesting to see how frequently this happens with other viruses.

As you say, too early to panic. If we start to get singificant numbers of people developing severe COVID-19 twice that wouldn't be great. Even then, immune responses elicited by a vaccine can be controlled through design, whereas natural infections can’t. Given time I think we will get there on an effective vaccine, although the longer it takes the more fecked up the world will get. Also what “an effective vaccine” means is a whole other question. Reinfection probably rules out erradication by a sterilising vaccine (although was it ever realstic, we have only eliminated smallpox and nearly polio). Given that people with lower viral loads are less likely to spread the virus, a protective vaccine that reduces viral load could still mitigate (although not stop) spread, which would be a massive help if enough people got it.

 

[F-Red]

Some interesting stats on the impact of schools opening:

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[Jacko21]

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Strange for this to be announced for the North East ahead of the North West.

 

[redshaw]

UK 4044 cases and 13 deaths.

Note it's Monday and usually much lower than other days

Ok. Time to be a bit less doom and gloom. This is an absolute cracker of a Twitter thread on where we are with vaccines. Some of it might be a bit technical if you’re not that way inclined but you skim through to get the gist of what he’s saying. Worth sticking with until the end. Honest. It’s actually kind of optimistic.

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There's a bit of a brief run down in this link as well for spike (S) protein and what various vaccines do.
https://www.sinobiological.com/research/virus/hcov-spike-protein-overview

Seems they'll be something good coming to mitigate the virus.

 

[Stack]

Ok. Time to be a bit less doom and gloom. This is an absolute cracker of a Twitter thread on where we are with vaccines. Some of it might be a bit technical if you’re not that way inclined but you skim through to get the gist of what he’s saying. Worth sticking with until the end. Honest. It’s actually kind of optimistic.

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Great read there, takes a bit of patience love the guys enthusiasm for his field.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Great read there, takes a bit of patience love the guys enthusiasm for his field.

Yeah, hats off to him. Not often you read a two glasses of wine Twitter thread!

 

[Pogue Mahone]

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We’ve come a long way from clapping at our front door.

 

[Fluctuation0161]

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We’ve come a long way from clapping at our front door.

These laws are passing without parliamentary scrutiny.

Is it now illegal to sing or dance? Ha!

 

[One Night Only]

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Strange for this to be announced for the North East ahead of the North West.

Well feck this, feck going to work. They can't enforce this bullshit anyway.

 

[One Night Only]

These laws are passing without parliamentary scrutiny.

Is it now illegal to sing or dance? Ha!

There will be allsorts being passed under the radar at the moment. All the shit they've ever wanted but people have always realised and kicked up a stink, they just come out with that much shit each day nobody can keep up with it now.

 

[Jacko21]

Well feck this, feck going to work. They can't enforce this bullshit anyway.

Suppose it's just another attempt to deter people before pulling the trigger on more restrictions - forcing businesses to close again looks to be a case of when not if.

 

[One Night Only]

Suppose it's just another attempt to deter people before pulling the trigger on more restrictions - forcing businesses to close again looks to be a case of when not if.

Mine won't close anyway as it's producing food, but they're saying "don't socialise because it's dangerous" but "goto work surrounded by people you don't trust to be sensible at the best of times"

 

[F-Red]

Strange for this to be announced for the North East ahead of the North West.

It's been requested by the local councils there, not driven from central government.

 

[Jacko21]

It's been requested by the local councils there, not driven from central government.

Yeah, I saw that. But given that some areas the NW are in a worse state, it seems odd not to apply the same changes whilst they are at it. Maybe NE councils are shouting more loudly.

Government haven't always been receptive to the views of the councils in Greater Manchester, so it marks a shift in approach if they're finally listening.

 

[Stanley Road]

Stricter rules in NL tonight. Dont go to the office, dont go to amsterdam unless necessary( undefined ), certain hours for the vulnerable to shop, masks in shops but policed by the shop, pubs & cafs closed at 10, 3 extra people in your house inc kids, companies to be shut down if there is a cluster outbreak, 30 people allowed in pub and 40 outside. No one allowed in pub after 9.

 

[Denis79]

Interesting point on BBC Politics Live earlier by a lady who I think is a former Tory MP, I didn’t catch her name, but she said that she believes the rise of conspiracy theorists in this COVID era has been helped along by this vacuum of scientific data surrounding policy decisions so far. When the government has failed to explain their reasoning for each and every decision and has flip flopped so many times already, trust has been eroded. If the decisions were lead purely by the science and stood by with conviction then people would have more faith in them.

Very interesting point.

 

[Maagge]

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We’ve come a long way from clapping at our front door.

An "enemy"? What's going on over there?

 

[DavidDeSchmikes]

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[sammsky1]

 

[Paxi]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p08ssngh

 

[Stanley Road]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p08ssngh

Says enough, people dont care.

 

[sammsky1]

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[sammsky1]

 

[Reiver]

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That seems ridiculous. It might be a bit dramatic on the part of the students- I don't know - but surely they have the right to display their thoughts about lockdown - whatever they are - from their window?
Under what law would the Police demand their removal?

 

[sammsky1]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p08ssngh

Once these kids load up on booze and drugs, I fear some will lose self control and serious crimes like molestation and worse will take place.

 

[Paxi]

Seems like some are obviously seeing this as a big excuse to get pissed up. Others are genuinely fearful of the situation. At the end of the day, they are still kids all but in name.

 

[Tony Babangida]

Ok. Time to be a bit less doom and gloom. This is an absolute cracker of a Twitter thread on where we are with vaccines. Some of it might be a bit technical if you’re not that way inclined but you skim through to get the gist of what he’s saying. Worth sticking with until the end. Honest. It’s actually kind of optimistic.

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This is great. Unrolled format makes it a bit easier to read: Link

 

[Salt Bailly]

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Seeing this prick squirm brings me immense joy.

 

[Wibble]

We have passed 1 million deaths

Of course it is likely much higher than this as the excess deaths will higher than that even with fewer flu deaths.

 

[Penna]

That seems ridiculous. It might be a bit dramatic on the part of the students- I don't know - but surely they have the right to display their thoughts about lockdown - whatever they are - from their window?
Under what law would the Police demand their removal?

I agree, they're young people, many of them are away from home for the first time and everything's strange. Putting up a sign that says "send beer" or "this cost me over £9K" is quite understandable. Unless they're putting up anything offensive, they absolutely have the right to make their feelings clear.

 

[11101]

The UK is not the only country with a 10pm curfew but it is the only country with idiots doing that. You can't blame the government for everything.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

The UK is not the only country with a 10pm curfew but it is the only country with idiots doing that. You can't blame the government for everything.

I swing between thinking they’re young, this has been harder on them than anyone, they need to blow off steam, I was also reckless at their age and WHAT THE FECK ARE YOU DOING YOU BLITHERING IDIOTS, YOU ARE LITERALLY KILLING PEOPLE SO YOU CAN GET OFF YOUR FACE ON WKD, GROW UP YOU SELFISH TWATS!!!

 

[VP89]

The UK is not the only country with a 10pm curfew but it is the only country with idiots doing that. You can't blame the government for everything.

I agree but I get annoyed when the Government think it's OK to trust the public with common sense. This is UK for feck-sake, it has a huge slice of dimwits capable of carnage.

 

[Brwned]

The UK is not the only country with a 10pm curfew but it is the only country with idiots doing that. You can't blame the government for everything.

What's the explanation for it? I can't imagine you'd find much evidence that there are more "idiots" in the UK in a general sense than most comparable nations, so what's leading to such different behaviour?

I don't blame the government necessarily, but it doesn't seem a big leap to think it's directly related to the confused messaging from the government. How many other countries have an incident like Boris Johnson and his "I shake everyone's hands" at any point in the pandemic, never mind right at the beginning? I imagine every country has had some public official skipping out on lockdown measures briefly, but that brazen attitude combined with his comments at the time seemed pretty unique. That was quickly followed by the UK government explicitly following a different approach to its neighbours in the early stages, only to flip flop and demonstrably pay for it.

Maybe every country has an equal number of people that look for an excuse to exploit those inconsistencies, "misunderstandings" and whatnot, and the UK just happened to hand it to them? As time goes on, adherence is going to slip for everyone, decades of research on all kinds of adherence to personal and public health measures show that, and all you need is those two things combined to get these examples.

Edit: I'd add that I've got friends in Spain and Germany who suggest big parties are much more common there than in the UK at the moment, it just isn't getting the same intention because there's not the same kind of generational in-fighting and blame games, and the climate and areas make it easier to do this further out of cities. And there's been reports from locals in here of music festivals and the rest going ahead as relatively normal in their countries. Very few examples of young people across the globe managing to reject that need for large social group connection. It is socially programmed into them in a way it isn't for older generations, given education structures and the culture that built around them.

 

[Vidyoyo]

What's the explanation for it? I can't imagine you'd find much evidence that there are more "idiots" in the UK in a general sense than most comparable nations, so what's leading to such different behaviour?

I don't blame the government necessarily, but it doesn't seem a big leap to think it's directly related to the confused messaging from the government. How many other countries have an incident like Boris Johnson and his "I shake everyone's hands" at any point in the pandemic, never mind right at the beginning? I imagine every country has had some public official skipping out on lockdown measures briefly, but that brazen attitude combined with his comments at the time seemed pretty unique. That was quickly followed by the UK government explicitly following a different approach to its neighbours in the early stages, only to flip flop and demonstrably pay for it.

Maybe every country has an equal number of people that look for an excuse to exploit those inconsistencies, "misunderstandings" and whatnot, and the UK just happened to hand it to them? As time goes on, adherence is going to slip for everyone, decades of research on all kinds of adherence to personal and public health measures show that, and all you need is those two things combined to get these examples.

Honestly, I reckon it's years of austerity and other bad policy coming to roost. People aren't happy about the few elements of life they enjoy being taken away from them and weren't ever going to give up what they enjoy doing without a strong narrative to back it (like Save the NHS).

I'm not going to agree going out and getting shitfaced should be a civil liberty but it makes sense people have exceeded their patience and are acting like they no longer care or have anything to lose. Others are simply trying to work between the cracks to make the best of things.

Our country has dissolved sense of community by displacing people to cities; created a dog-eat-dog jobs market; driven up the cost of house prices; confused people with rampant marketing about living life to the fullest; demoralised public sector staff like junior doctors; decreased funding for libraries and other public venues. It's no wonder that people have turned into selfish twats when they live in a society run by uncaring arseholes*

I usually eschew politics (don't think I've ever spoken about it on this forum) but I believe it's all linked.


*I will caveat this by saying the job retention scheme was a step in the right direction. I think most were surprised by it.

Edit - Add university fees to the mix too. A big problem given that students are now forced to treat education like a consumable product.

 

[Brwned]

Honestly, I reckon it's years of austerity and other bad policy coming to roost. People aren't happy about the few elements of life they enjoy being taken away from them and weren't ever going to give up what they enjoy doing without a strong narrative to back it (like Save the NHS).

I'm not going to agree going out and getting shitfaced should be a civil liberty but it makes sense people have exceeded their patience and are acting like they no longer have anything to lose (they probably don't really themselves, assuming their health is fine).

Our country has dissolved sense of community by displacing people to cities; created a dog-eat-dog jobs market; driven up the cost of house prices; confused people with rampant marketing about living life to the fullest; demoralised public sector staff like junior doctors; decreased funding for libraries and other public venues. It's no wonder that people have turned into selfish twats when they live in a society run by uncaring arseholes*

I usually eschew politics (don't think I've ever spoken about it on this forum) but I believe it's all linked.


*I will caveat this by saying the job retention scheme was a step in the right direction. I think most were surprised by it.

Edit - Add university fees to the mix too. A big problem given that students are now forced to treat education like a consumable product.

Not sure that can explain the country differences though. They sufferered a lot from austerity in Spain too, they were in a more precarious economic position pre pandemic, and they have more people in the more at risk jobs (e.g. Tourism) who already over-index on economic insecurity at the best of times.