SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Pogue Mahone]

Good news :

https://investors.modernatx.com/new...vaccine-retains-neutralizing-activity-against

Good-ish news.

The SA variant caused sixfold reductions in antibody titres. They reckon this is still high enough to provide immunity overall but that’s still a big reduction. There’s a good chance it will reduce duration of protection and could make it completely ineffective in a minority of people who don’t respond well to the vaccine.

I’m sure all the companies producing vaccines (especially mRNA vaccines) are getting cracking on tweaking their product to work better against this variant. Sounds like they need to.

 

[jojojo]

Bit of a strange one. Feels like she’s rattling her sabre to make everyone feel as though something is being done, rather than because it’s justified. At the end of the day, AZ already have a huge financial incentive to produce as much vaccine as possible, as quickly as possible. So I don’t see how threatening them changes anything.

I know they have to do this just to sound like they're doing something - but it is mildly irritating. The ramp up has been extraordinarily fast, all the manufacturers are struggling to hit Q1 rollout. It's just really hard to do, so trying to pin blame on the companies seems not just premature, but pointless. That said, there may be a real incentive to complain here. If the UK is getting all the AZ it asked for and it's only the EU being cut then moaning at the supplier to apply an equality of misery to all customers might have some impact. Even so, in terms of actual volumes arriving in the member states, it won't do much - because the actual volumes aren't there.

Incidentally, J&J have announced production delays on their vaccine. They haven't actually released P3 data yet, but a lot of people were hoping they would be shipping in volume from late February.
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/13/johnson-johnson-vaccine-production-458941

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I know they have to do this just to sound like they're doing something - but it is mildly irritating. The ramp up has been extraordinarily fast, all the manufacturers are struggling to hit Q1 rollout. It's just really hard to do, so trying to pin blame on the companies seems not just premature, but pointless. That said, there may be a real incentive to complain here. If the UK is getting all the AZ it asked for and it's only the EU being cut then moaning at the supplier to apply an equality of misery to all customers might have some impact. Even so, in terms of actual volumes arriving in the member states, it won't do much - because the actual volumes aren't there.

Incidentally, J&J have announced production delays on their vaccine. They haven't actually released P3 data yet, but a lot of people were hoping they would be shipping in volume from late February.
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/13/johnson-johnson-vaccine-production-458941

Gah. Fecking hell. I’m probably more aware than most about how inevitable stuff like this is but it’s still frustrating as hell when it happens.

 

[11101]

I know they have to do this just to sound like they're doing something - but it is mildly irritating. The ramp up has been extraordinarily fast, all the manufacturers are struggling to hit Q1 rollout. It's just really hard to do, so trying to pin blame on the companies seems not just premature, but pointless. That said, there may be a real incentive to complain here. If the UK is getting all the AZ it asked for and it's only the EU being cut then moaning at the supplier to apply an equality of misery to all customers might have some impact. Even so, in terms of actual volumes arriving in the member states, it won't do much - because the actual volumes aren't there.

Incidentally, J&J have announced production delays on their vaccine. They haven't actually released P3 data yet, but a lot of people were hoping they would be shipping in volume from late February.
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/13/johnson-johnson-vaccine-production-458941

I don't actually know if they have done this with AZ but the EU has given manufacturers like Pfizer a lot of money for the express purpose of investing in expanding production facilities over the last year. That might by why they're complaining.

 

[golden_blunder]

I don't actually know if they have done this with AZ but the EU has given manufacturers like Pfizer a lot of money for the express purpose of investing in expanding production facilities over the last year. That might by why they're complaining.

I think you’re spot on. “We gave you the money up front so you could open new facilities and ramp up. We expect you to deliver what you promised”

 

[jojojo]

I don't actually know if they have done this with AZ but the EU has given manufacturers like Pfizer a lot of money for the express purpose of investing in expanding production facilities over the last year. That might by why they're complaining.

I understand the complaining, it's human nature to complain about things that don't go best case. It's why governments have been trying to reduce spending on things like carehomes and pandemic preparedness for years. However, I would be staggered if any company contractually guaranteed a particular number of doses in January/February, irrespective of much money they were given. The surprise has been that there's any vaccine availability in January, not that there are shortfalls.

AZ have a manufacturing process that starts with a 6 week brewing stage and has to pause multiple times afterwards to check for quality (purity, stability, sterility). Even if all your reactors work great from day one, all your raw materials arrive on time, they're going from a series of trial batches that add up to 100k or so doses in total to a production run that starts in the millions and has to deliver billions. When you're ramping up even a small error in the production process, a minor breakdown in the plant, or a short delay or quality issue in the supply chain can cost you millions of doses or delay delivery by weeks, which is what we're seeing here.

Incidentally we also have the problem that several manufacturers are actually chasing the same stuff - whether that's something fundamental like some of the chemical reagents (where they may also be competing for resources with other important drugs), or something seemingly trivial like plastic liners for reaction vessels or glass vials for the finished product.

 

[golden_blunder]

I thought I read actually that there is a global shortage of glass vials

 

[TheReligion]

One thing the Tory's seem to have done well at is securing and administering the two vaccines in the UK.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

One thing the Tory's seem to have done well at is securing and administering the two vaccines in the UK.

Kind of. By pushing the second dose of the Pfizer vaccine out they’re hugely inflating the numbers of people who are deemed to have been vaccinated already. Which looks good for their metrics but might not be a great idea in the long run. At the very least, it’s a bit of a gamble.

They’re also taking risks with the AZ vaccine. Dosing people before we’re sure of the optimal dose/dose interval.

If you’re being cynical you could argue that it’s the same mentality as them counting posted out tests as completed tests back when countries were being compared on their testing numbers.

Having said all that “perfect is the enemy of good” so these gambles might all pay off in the end. It’s a bit like Sweden. Going against the grain with big decisions can either make you look like a genius or a fool. Time will tell.

 

[jojojo]

A first look at what the current "high risk" job profile looks like. Worth remembering when it comes to talking about vaccination priorities.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55795608

Per 100,000 men aged 20-64, 31 died in the population as a whole compared with:

• 119 restaurant and catering staff per 100,000
• 110 care workers
• 106 metal-working machine operatives
• 101 taxi drivers
• 100 security guards
• 79 nurses

Among women, secondary school teachers in particular did enter the top 10 highest-risk professions - although the absolute numbers of deaths among working-age women were relatively small, giving a wider margin of uncertainty.
Per 100,000 women aged 20-64, 17 died in the population as a whole compared with:

• 47 care workers per 100,000
• 32 social workers
• 27 sales or retail assistants
• 25 nurses
• 22 cleaners
• 21 secondary education teaching professionals

 

[TheReligion]

A first look at what the current "high risk" job profile looks like. Worth remembering when it comes to talking about vaccination priorities.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55795608

Per 100,000 men aged 20-64, 31 died in the population as a whole compared with:

• 119 restaurant and catering staff per 100,000
• 110 care workers
• 106 metal-working machine operatives
• 101 taxi drivers
• 100 security guards
• 79 nurses

Among women, secondary school teachers in particular did enter the top 10 highest-risk professions - although the absolute numbers of deaths among working-age women were relatively small, giving a wider margin of uncertainty.
Per 100,000 women aged 20-64, 17 died in the population as a whole compared with:

• 47 care workers per 100,000
• 32 social workers
• 27 sales or retail assistants
• 25 nurses
• 22 cleaners
• 21 secondary education teaching professionals

If they start giving out vaccines to some of the above before the emergency services I'll give up.

 

[acnumber9]

If they start giving out vaccines to some of the above before the emergency services I'll give up.

Would that include you per chance?

 

[TheReligion]

Would that include you per chance?

Not me personally no as I would issue it to response officers first and foremost. Do you disagree?

 

[KirkDuyt]

Massive rioting throughout the Netherlands yesterday due to the curfew. Expected to happen again tonight. All based on these moronic disinformation campaigns that covid is just a flue and the government is using it as an excuse to implement a totalitarian communist dictatorship in the vision of China.

I can't believe what I just typed is actually true. People are so intensely stupid. Oh yes, the Germans put out a curfew in WW 2, so this is exactly the same, hence Rutte is a nazi. Feck. Off.

 

[acnumber9]

Not me personally no as I would issue it to response officers first and foremost. Do you disagree?

I’d say giving it to those most likely to die without it is a good starting point.

 

[TheReligion]

I’d say giving it to those most likely to die without it is a good starting point.

Isn't that whats being done? You've just sidestepped the question.

 

[acnumber9]

Isn't that whats being done? You've just sidestepped the question.

Have I? You were whining about the possibility of those who have died in greater numbers being pushed above emergency services.

 

[TheReligion]

Have I? You were whining about the possibility of those who have died in greater numbers being pushed above emergency services.

Whining? The fact I find it hard to accept that they'd push the vaccine out to taxi drivers and security guards ahead of police officers seems to make you feel uneasy for some reason.

 

[acnumber9]

Whining? The fact I find it hard to accept that they'd push the vaccine out to taxi drivers and security guards ahead of police officers seems to make you feel uneasy for some reason.

If they’re dying in greater numbers then why not? Ultimately, those numbers should drop with the services not being used as much. You’re dealing in self interest. If emergency services are at greater risk then they should be higher up the list than those that aren’t. Doesn’t seem the case from the numbers though.

 

[TheReligion]

If they’re dying in greater numbers then why not? Ultimately, those numbers should drop with the services not being used as much. You’re dealing in self interest. If emergency services are at greater risk then they should be higher up the list than those that aren’t. Doesn’t seem the case from the numbers though.

Scrap that. Just read the article and the figures are skewed anyway. Quite misleading infact

 

[acnumber9]

Scrap that. Just read the article and the figures are skewed anyway. Quite misleading infact

Nice way to back out of wanting your colleagues safe at the expense of people potentially more likely to die.

 

[jojojo]

Not me personally no as I would issue it to response officers first and foremost. Do you disagree?

I think the role of the JCVI is to prioritise based on actual evidence of risk rather than putting value judgments on jobs. That said, I doubt they'd have the nerve to prioritise restaurant staff over first responders - the PR hit would be too bad and it's better to close the venues instead. Nor do I think they'll actually go with prioritising men over women, if only because a lot of women have hidden second "jobs" as family carers etc, or are only at lower risk because their job has been curtailed in the past year (like teachers who didn't have face to face students for months).

Certainly though I won't be surprised to see them throw some new priority weightings into the schedule. Over 50s being prioritised based on job risk or key worker status being placed ahead of a more simplistic pure age based model that drives the schedule now, and would put the over 60s ahead of them. And as I type that, I see my place slithering back even further in the vaccine queue

 

[TheReligion]

Nice way to back out of wanting your colleagues safe at the expense of people potentially more likely to die.

Eh? By pointing out the figures are misleading? A few of my colleagues have died over the past 12 months so forgive me in wanting to keep those at daily risk of infection protected. I'll bite my tongue with the rest of what I was going to say and put it down to naivety on your part.

 

[TheReligion]

I think the role of the JCVI is to prioritise based on actual evidence of risk rather than putting value judgments on jobs. That said, I doubt they'd have the nerve to prioritise restaurant staff over first responders - the PR hit would be too bad and it's better to close the venues instead. Nor do I think they'll actually go with prioritising men over women, if only because a lot of women have hidden second "jobs" as family carers etc, or are only at lower risk because their job has been curtailed in the past year (like teachers who didn't have face to face students for months).

Certainly though I won't be surprised to see them throw some new priority weightings into the schedule. Over 50s being prioritised based on job risk or key worker status being placed ahead of a more simplistic pure age based model that drives the schedule now, and would put the over 60s ahead of them. And as I type that, I see my place slithering back even further in the vaccine queue

Reading the article I'm not sure the figures are actually that worthwhile when you look at what they haven't actually considered.

 

[acnumber9]

Eh? By pointing out the figures are misleading? A few of my colleagues have died over the past 12 months so forgive me in wanting to keep those at daily risk of infection protected. I'll bite my tongue with the rest of what I was going to say and put it down to naivety on your part.

Lots of people in lots of fields have. Being selfish is human nature. Put it down to whatever you want. You’re acting in self interest. People working in restaurant’s etc are obviously at lower risk now. But if construction workers for example were dying in greater numbers than police then giving them the vaccine first isn’t worth ‘giving up’.

 

[TheReligion]

Lots of people in lots of fields have. Being selfish is human nature. Put it down to whatever you want. You’re acting in self interest.

None of what you say changes the fact those figures are misleading by the way. Have you actually read the article yet?

And RE acting in self interest I've explained that's not the case already as I personally wouldn't receive it.

 

[acnumber9]

None of what you say changes the fact those figures are misleading by the way. Have you actually read the article yet?

And RE acting in self interest I've explained that's not the case already as I personally wouldn't receive it.

Yes I have. Which is why I caveated what I said with if. You displayed no nuance. Just emergency services have to get them before those other occupations. If emergency services are at greater risk then they should be higher up the list. You’re the one whining if potentially more at risk people get it before you and your mates.

 

[TheReligion]

Yes I have. Which is why I caveated what I said with if. You displayed no nuance. Just emergency services have to get them before those other occupations. If emergency services are at greater risk then they should be higher up the list. You’re the one whining if potentially more at risk people get it before you and your mates.

Again, you don't seem to be either reading things properly or digesting them. The figures in the article are wrong and don't take into consideration a number of key things that you would consider before completing a risk assessment based on profession. Secondly I've said several times I personally would not want the vaccine ahead of other colleagues so the self preservation guff is rather short sighted.

 

[Ish]

South Africa’s richest man (it were not counting Musk as SA) received the vaccine in Switzerland somewhere, where he has citizenship (& owns a large share of a private hospital group iirc). Quite a bit of a controversy, especially in Switzerland. What money can’t get you, huh!

 

[acnumber9]

Again, you don't seem to be either reading things properly or digesting them. The figures in the article are wrong and don't take into consideration a number of key things that you would consider before completing a risk assessment based on profession. Secondly I've said several times I personally would not want the vaccine ahead of other colleagues so the self preservation guff is rather short sighted.

No, you aren’t reading or digesting things correctly. I said IF they are more at risk, then being higher up the priority list is understandable. If they aren’t, they shouldn’t be. All you have done is threaten to throw your toys out of the pram if you and your friends get pushed down, regardless of whether you’re less likely to die or not.

 

[TheReligion]

No, you aren’t reading or digesting things correctly. I said IF they are more at risk, then being higher up the priority list is understandable. If they aren’t, they shouldn’t be. All you have done is threaten to throw your toys out of the pram if you and your friends get pushed down, regardless of whether you’re less likely to die or not.

If you read the article you'd see that they aren't at more risk given how the figures have been produced.

Just sorted that IF out for you.

 

[acnumber9]

If you read the article you'd see that they aren't at more risk given how the figures have been produced.

Just sorted that IF out for you.

But you have provided no data that emergency services (police) are more at risk than some of those professions. So, that IF, still exists. And you’re still looking to throw a pity party fuelled by self interest.

 

[TheReligion]

But you have provided no data that emergency services (police) are more at risk than some of those professions. So, that IF, still exists. And you’re still looking to throw a pity party fuelled by self interest.

The person incharge of the distribution of the vaccine seems to know the figures and wants to ensure emergency services receive it.

You can't throw any type of party at the moment unfortunately. I should know. You'll have to get some new material im afraid!

 

[acnumber9]

The person incharge of the distribution of the vaccine seems to know the figures and wants to ensure emergency services receive it.

You can't throw any type of party at the moment unfortunately. I should know. You'll have to get some new material im afraid!

Then no need for you to get your knickers in a twist. You and your friends will be safe soon.

I’m sorry you aren’t getting the attention police officers crave.

 

[horsechoker]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Will he ever learn?

Looking forward to spending summer indoors

 

[TheReligion]

Then no need for you to get your knickers in a twist. You and your friends will be safe soon.

I’m sorry you aren’t getting the attention police officers crave.

And so the mask slips

You're just making yourself look rather silly.

 

[horsechoker]

This guy's got the right idea

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[TheReligion]

Looking forward to spending summer indoors

I think it will be towards autumn before we see any real changes unfortunately.

 

[acnumber9]

And so the mask slips

You're just making yourself look rather silly.

No, it’s just clear what your agenda is. You don’t mind if people potentially more at risk die so long as you and your friends are safe and you get the kudos you crave. As evidenced by your continual whining about teachers.

 

[TheReligion]

No, it’s just clear what your agenda is. You don’t mind if people potentially more at risk die so long as you and your friends are safe and you get the kudos you crave. As evidenced by your continual whining about teachers.

The irony here is very strong as you're the one clearly being driven by whatever odd little agenda you have going.

You can keep prodding and poking but I won't bite don't worry. You're making enough of a show out of yourself as it is.