SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

acnumber9

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The irony here is very strong as you're the one clearly being driven by whatever odd little agenda you have going.

You can keep prodding and poking but I won't bite don't worry. You're making enough of a show out of yourself as it is.
No, I’m not crying about not getting my vaccine first. You are. feck who dies, they’re only construction workers.
 

TheReligion

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No, I’m not crying about not getting my vaccine first. You are. feck who dies, they’re only construction workers.
The only person whining crying and getting all worked up here is you. The very fact you've even brought up teachers because I mentioned them a few weeks ago shows you've got an agenda.

It's also strange to take bizarre personal swipes at people on the internet when you know nothing about them.
 

acnumber9

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The only person whining crying and getting all worked up here is you. The very fact you've even brought up teachers because I mentioned them a few weeks ago shows you've got an agenda.

It's also strange to take bizarre personal swipes at people on the internet when you know nothing about them.
You displayed your opinion for all to see. feck anyone else, as long as you and yours are looked after. You were the one ‘giving up’, not me.
 

TheReligion

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You displayed your opinion for all to see. feck anyone else, as long as you and yours are looked after. You were the one ‘giving up’, not me.
Again it's rather silly to make sweeping statements about people you don't know. You'll end up looking daft again.
 

acnumber9

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Again it's rather silly to make sweeping statements about people you don't know. You'll end up looking daft again.
It’s your post. It’s there for all to see. If it was proven you were more likely to die working in construction than being a police officer, would them getting the vaccine first make you give up?
 

TheReligion

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It’s your post. It’s there for all to see. If it was proven you were more likely to die working in construction than being a police officer, would them getting the vaccine first make you give up?
No not at all. I've worked throughout the pandemic and will continue to do so.
 

Pogue Mahone

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Re vaccine prioritisation it’s a bit more complicated than prioritising the highest death rate, then working down from there. It’s actually extremely complex from an ethical positions.

In Ireland they give a bit of an explanation and there’s lots of factors to consider. For example, restaurant workers might catch a lot of covid but the cost to society of them being off work sick is a lot lower than losing first responders.
 

TheReligion

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Then why say you’d give up if they got the vaccine first with no data showing those groups aren’t at greater risk?
Gives me more time to go and cheer the police so you can feel as important as you want to.
Please wear a mask and work the cheering into your daily exercise. Would hate to have to issue you a fixed penalty notice.
 

TheReligion

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Re vaccine prioritisation it’s a bit more complicated than prioritising the highest death rate, then working down from there. It’s actually extremely complex from an ethical positions.

In Ireland they give a bit of an explanation and there’s lots of factors to consider. For example, restaurant workers might catch a lot of covid but the cost to society of them being off work sick is a lot lower than losing first responders.
You are exactly right
 

acnumber9

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Re vaccine prioritisation it’s a bit more complicated than prioritising the highest death rate, then working down from there. It’s actually extremely complex from an ethical positions.

In Ireland they give a bit of an explanation and there’s lots of factors to consider. For example, restaurant workers might catch a lot of covid but the cost to society of them being off work sick is a lot lower than losing first responders.
Which is all fair and contains nuance. Something our friend is incapable of. A blanket, ‘me and my friends have to get it first’, is ridiculous.
 

rcoobc

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So, actually looking into the data, you have to wonder about their conclusions somewhat

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...eathsregisteredbetween9marchand28december2020

For example, male chefs have had 103.1 deaths per 100,000 (82 deaths) but chefs will have mostly been furloughed for the last year. I wasn't sure if chefs included food prep people in other areas, but looking at the "standard occupation classification" it isn't supposed to

Chefs plan menus and prepare, or oversee the preparation of food in hotels, restaurants, clubs, private households and other establishments.
So chefs have one of the highest deaths per 100,000 people but will have spent a lot of the time not working!

I wondered if they were only going by people who died in work but I don't think that's correct. For the number of people in each profession it says this

Population counts for occupations were obtained from the Annual Population Survey (APS), using data collected in 2019. The APS is the largest ongoing household survey in the UK, based on interviews with members of randomly selected households. The survey covers a range of diverse topics, including information on occupation, which is then coded using the SOC 2010. The population counts were also restricted to those aged 20 to 64 years and were weighted to be representative of those living in England and Wales. Further information on the APS can be found in the APS QMI.
So obviously thats a bit out of date.

Its not like you just use that data as the perfect guide for where to vaccinate
 

Wolverine

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Usual caveats but potentially excellent news in this thread and more reason of importance of two jabs as recommended by Pfizer, according to that news pointing to 99.99% effectiveness. Also in context of high infectivity rate in the country and 40-50% of cases being of the british B.1.1.7. variant
 

gormless

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But you have provided no data that emergency services (police) are more at risk than some of those professions. So, that IF, still exists. And you’re still looking to throw a pity party fuelled by self interest.
Its surely in the best interests of society to get Police officers vaccinated. When I was a response officer, the amount of times I went from an incident where I was up close and personal with the type of person who wouldn’t give a feck about COVID restrictions, to a care home via half a dozen houses makes me think Police officers are a risk for transferring the virus into high risk areas.
 

Sparky_Hughes

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You guys need to agree to disagree (something I’m absolutely terrible at but at least I’m good at recognising it!)
The favourite of parents the world over, do as I say not as I do. If only I had a pound for each time ive said that.
 

Pogue Mahone

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Usual caveats but potentially excellent news in this thread and more reason of importance of two jabs as recommended by Pfizer, according to that news pointing to 99.99% effectiveness. Also in context of high infectivity rate in the country and 40-50% of cases being of the british B.1.1.7. variant
Now that is good news. Pump it into my veins!

(or deltoid, preferably deltoid)
 

Fingeredmouse

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Usual caveats but potentially excellent news in this thread and more reason of importance of two jabs as recommended by Pfizer, according to that news pointing to 99.99% effectiveness. Also in context of high infectivity rate in the country and 40-50% of cases being of the british B.1.1.7. variant
Now this is exciting news.
 

TheReligion

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Its surely in the best interests of society to get Police officers vaccinated. When I was a response officer, the amount of times I went from an incident where I was up close and personal with the type of person who wouldn’t give a feck about COVID restrictions, to a care home via half a dozen houses makes me think Police officers are a risk for transferring the virus into high risk areas.
Aye. But shhhhhhhhh. Say it too loudly and you'll be told you're being selfish, thinking of yourself and demanding praise and attention.

The mind boggles.
 

massi83

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Usual caveats but potentially excellent news in this thread and more reason of importance of two jabs as recommended by Pfizer, according to that news pointing to 99.99% effectiveness. Also in context of high infectivity rate in the country and 40-50% of cases being of the british B.1.1.7. variant
It's good news, but that is not how effectiveness is calculated. And it will be nowhere near that number.
 

Garethw

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I know a few people who have had the the AZ vaccine and felt pretty poorly afterwards. I assume that's normal with a vaccine right?
A doctor told me that a reaction to a vaccine means that the bodies immune system has its boxing gloves on.
 

Penna

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Re vaccine prioritisation it’s a bit more complicated than prioritising the highest death rate, then working down from there. It’s actually extremely complex from an ethical positions.

In Ireland they give a bit of an explanation and there’s lots of factors to consider. For example, restaurant workers might catch a lot of covid but the cost to society of them being off work sick is a lot lower than losing first responders.
They have devised 12 categories here for vaccine prioritisation, divided into four phases.

Phase One (5% of total population)
  1. Frontline health workers (an estimated 1.4 million people)
  2. Nursing home staff and residents (570,000 people)
  3. Over-80s (4.4 million people)
Phase Two (taking percentage of total population vaccinated to 15 percent):
  1. 60-79 year olds
  2. People of any age with at least one chronic health condition that puts them at higher risk of falling seriously ill with Covid-19
  3. Sociodemographic groups at significantly higher risk of severe illness or death
  4. High-risk teachers and school staff
Phase Three (50 percent of population vaccinated):
  1. All other teachers and school staff
  2. Key workers and others who work in high-risk settings
  3. Prison wardens and prisoners
  4. People with less serious chronic health conditions
Phase Four (90 percent of population vaccinated):
  1. Everyone else
(source - thelocal.it)

We've heard today that the over-80s vaccinations will be delayed by about 4 weeks (some regions were close to starting them), and everyone in the other categories will have to wait for 6-8 weeks longer than planned. Of course, Italy has taken the line of making sure those who've been vaccinated with the first dose receive the second one, in view of the delays in supply, rather than pressing on with giving other people a first dose.
 

Garethw

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I don’t know what this means
Just his way of explaining the body making antibodies and getting ready to kick a virus’ ass I suppose. I’m not really sure mate, he’s a bit of an eccentric old fool my doc:lol:
 

acnumber9

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Its surely in the best interests of society to get Police officers vaccinated. When I was a response officer, the amount of times I went from an incident where I was up close and personal with the type of person who wouldn’t give a feck about COVID restrictions, to a care home via half a dozen houses makes me think Police officers are a risk for transferring the virus into high risk areas.
Very possibly. That was never my issue, more if there was sufficient risk in other areas that police shouldn’t automatically be right up there just because they’re police, but that’s been done to death. Two other people have given better reasons for them to be higher up the list than he could.
 

Pogue Mahone

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It's good news, but that is not how effectiveness is calculated. And it will be nowhere near that number.
Seeing as you’re being pedantic, I will too! ;)

That’s definitely not how efficacy is calculated but it’s not far off how effectiveness is calculated. Efficacy is a measure of how well an intervention works in a controlled clinical trial. You need two different interventions for your calculations, ideally drug vs placebo.

Effectiveness is a measure of “real life efficacy”. How well your intervention works after it’s rolled and used in day to day clinical practice. Usually without any comparator at all. So the Israeli data here is a measure of vaccine effectiveness and you don’t need a placebo cohort for comparison.

What you do need is some other matched cohort, if you’re going to talk about a % effectiveness. Similar to that graph you posted yesterday. Because they don’t get placebo it’s not going to be very accurate (people will behave differently after getting what they believe is a vaccine) but it will provide some context. That’s missing here, so we’re really just going off the fact that they’re experiencing a surge, so 20 cases per 128000 seems reassuringly low. The national average over the last 7 days is 536/100k. Although regional variations will mess up any estimates of effectiveness by doing simple maths on those figures.

EDIT: I’m sure you know all this. Just chatting shit mainly for the benefit of anyone else who’s interested.
 

Crackers

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Seeing as you’re being pedantic, I will too! ;)

That’s definitely not how efficacy is calculated but it’s not far off how effectiveness is calculated. Efficacy is a measure of how well an intervention works in a controlled clinical trial. You need two different interventions for your calculations, ideally drug vs placebo.

Effectiveness is a measure of “real life efficacy”. How well your intervention works after it’s rolled and used in day to day clinical practice. Usually without any comparator at all. So the Israeli data here is a measure of vaccine effectiveness and you don’t need a placebo cohort for comparison.

What you do need is some other matched cohort, if you’re going to talk about a % effectiveness. Similar to that graph you posted yesterday. Because they don’t get placebo it’s not going to be very accurate (people will behave differently after getting what they believe is a vaccine) but it will provide some context. That’s missing here, so we’re really just going off the fact that they’re experiencing a surge, so 20 cases per 128000 seems reassuringly low. The national average over the last 7 days is 536/100k. Although regional variations will mess up any estimates of effectiveness by doing simple maths on those figures.

EDIT: I’m sure you know all this. Just chatting shit mainly for the benefit of anyone else who’s interested.
Thanks, this was really informative.
 

massi83

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Seeing as you’re being pedantic, I will too! ;)

That’s definitely not how efficacy is calculated but it’s not far off how effectiveness is calculated. Efficacy is a measure of how well an intervention works in a controlled clinical trial. You need two different interventions for your calculations, ideally drug vs placebo.

Effectiveness is a measure of “real life efficacy”. How well your intervention works after it’s rolled and used in day to day clinical practice. Usually without any comparator at all. So the Israeli data here is a measure of vaccine effectiveness and you don’t need a placebo cohort for comparison.

What you do need is some other matched cohort, if you’re going to talk about a % effectiveness. Similar to that graph you posted yesterday. Because they don’t get placebo it’s not going to be very accurate (people will behave differently after getting what they believe is a vaccine) but it will provide some context. That’s missing here, so we’re really just going off the fact that they’re experiencing a surge, so 20 cases per 128000 seems reassuringly low. The national average over the last 7 days is 536/100k. Although regional variations will mess up any estimates of effectiveness by doing simple maths on those figures.

EDIT: I’m sure you know all this. Just chatting shit mainly for the benefit of anyone else who’s interested.
Nothing wrong with being pedantic!

In addition if you look at the twitter thread it seems like they haven't even tested all of the 128.000, only people with known exposures or symptoms. So the 99.99% is even more inaccurate.