SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[worldgonemad]

The government were advised by SAGE on 21st September to take drastic action to prevent a "very large epidemic with catastrophic consequences". Their advice was ignored. I don't see an improvement in the UK response to the second wave. We have the highest death rate in the World over the last week and also the highest total number of deaths in Europe. 60% of deaths happened after the SAGE advice was ignored.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/uk-covid-death-rate-coronavirus-b1788817.html


As for vaccinations, yes we approved early, without the same thorough regulation as the EU or even the USA (see Dr Fauci's comments). That gamble of early approval and ordering seems to have paid off in the short term. But now our government stands alone in spacing out the first and second jabs way beyond the manufacturers recommendation. This is an experimental and new vaccine, do you trust our govenrment over the vaccine manufacturer? The only reason they are spacing out the gaps is so they can make the claim similar to yours;

"have been ahead of the game regarding vaccinations and that is something that should be lauded , some bright in the dark ."

I know we are all desperate for some positive news, but let's not blinker ourselves. Many people are waiting for their second jab and there is a chance that increasing the gap between the jabs could reduce the effectiveness. The government are counting people who have had their first jab but not their second jab in their figures. Playing politics yet again. But yes, let's blame people driving 5 miles to walk for the pandemic.

One thing we can agree on is, political opposition has been weak. Waste of time.

I take on board the advice from sage being ignored , but we have to bear in mind that sages focus is solely the immediate impact on health from the epidemic point of view , at least from what i understand . The government have to balance that advice against all other effects on the country , including the economy . I know its an emotive balancing act and it could be argued that each life comes above anything , that we should shut everything down for as long as it takes and for as hard as possible , to keep deaths to a minimum ( actually not only death , but long term serious health impacts of the virus , which has been barely touched upon here in this thread , but which i do suspect will be severe )
This balancing act is something that all developed nations are wrestling with , and there has been political turmoil in most of our neighbours trying to find that right balance .
if we had acted as sage had reccomended , without a doubt deaths would be lower and without a doubt more businessess would fail and any recovery would take longer .

Regarding the vaccinations and ' the gamble ' would it not be fair to say that ALL countries are gambling with these vaccines . All of them have been approved in record time and without the normal process . Fauci backtracked on his comments shortly after making them , as the usa were also about to approve the same vaccine . The vaccine manufactuers are still gathering data on efficy of one or multiple doses , so i think its fair to say that all of them are being carefull with advice . None of the manufactuers can say how long the vaccine is usefull for for example , but does that mean that all countries should hold back until they get that data in , say in another year or so ? Personally i think not , i would take the view that some protection for all the vulnerable is better than none at all until normal time scales in development have been met .

Your use of the phrase "gamble " is pretty apt , except that i think All use of the vaccines is a gamble at the moment . Its also intersting that you mention playing politics regarding the vaccines , this is something that is happening throughout europe in particular , countries vying for a limited supply and kicking off when they dont get it . Its intersting to me when i read the numbers of each vaccines ordered by country for example , i think we in the uk have pre ordered over 200 million doses , way above our populace , as have the eu . It reminds me of the ppe fiasco last march where the world was all chasing ventilators and masks at the same time . Maybe our government learnt , and thats why they got in early and ordered vaccines before anyone else

Out of interest where did anyone blame people driving 5 miles to walk for the pandemic ?

EDIT , forgot about starmer

Why have the opposition been absent by the way ? Starmer seems like a decent bloke , but he seems terrified , not sure what of , but he has no voice . As for the lib dems ive not heard a sniff from them throughout , which is a discrace

 

[golden_blunder]

It grates my ball cheese people giving government a free pass. They’ve fcuked up at every turn

 

[Balljy]

It grates my ball cheese people giving government a free pass. They’ve fcuked up at every turn

Agreed, you can expect some mistakes as the situation is unprecedented and every government will have made them.

That's very different from having literally the worst mortality rate per capita in the world and failing to react quickly enough at every turn. What really gets to me is the constant "we've listened to the science" when the people he says he's listening to have and are telling us we should have moved quicker and were repeatedly saying that at the time in press conferences that were broadcast to us all.

 

[Fluctuation0161]

I take on board the advice from sage being ignored , but we have to bear in mind that sages focus is solely the immediate impact on health from the epidemic point of view , at least from what i understand . The government have to balance that advice against all other effects on the country , including the economy . I know its an emotive balancing act and it could be argued that each life comes above anything , that we should shut everything down for as long as it takes and for as hard as possible , to keep deaths to a minimum ( actually not only death , but long term serious health impacts of the virus , which has been barely touched upon here in this thread , but which i do suspect will be severe )
This balancing act is something that all developed nations are wrestling with , and there has been political turmoil in most of our neighbours trying to find that right balance .
if we had acted as sage had reccomended , without a doubt deaths would be lower and without a doubt more businessess would fail and any recovery would take longer .

Regarding the vaccinations and ' the gamble ' would it not be fair to say that ALL countries are gambling with these vaccines . All of them have been approved in record time and without the normal process . Fauci backtracked on his comments shortly after making them , as the usa were also about to approve the same vaccine . The vaccine manufactuers are still gathering data on efficy of one or multiple doses , so i think its fair to say that all of them are being carefull with advice . None of the manufactuers can say how long the vaccine is usefull for for example , but does that mean that all countries should hold back until they get that data in , say in another year or so ? Personally i think not , i would take the view that some protection for all the vulnerable is better than none at all until normal time scales in development have been met .

Your use of the phrase "gamble " is pretty apt , except that i think All use of the vaccines is a gamble at the moment . Its also intersting that you mention playing politics regarding the vaccines , this is something that is happening throughout europe in particular , countries vying for a limited supply and kicking off when they dont get it . Its intersting to me when i read the numbers of each vaccines ordered by country for example , i think we in the uk have pre ordered over 200 million doses , way above our populace , as have the eu . It reminds me of the ppe fiasco last march where the world was all chasing ventilators and masks at the same time . Maybe our government learnt , and thats why they got in early and ordered vaccines before anyone else

Out of interest where did anyone blame people driving 5 miles to walk for the pandemic ?

EDIT , forgot about starmer

Why have the opposition been absent by the way ? Starmer seems like a decent bloke , but he seems terrified , not sure what of , but he has no voice . As for the lib dems ive not heard a sniff from them throughout , which is a discrace

Re: economy: it is counter productive to stay open against scientific advice and allow the virus to get to current levels. It then has to be shut down harder and longer than it would have if advice had been listened to. Look at New Zealand as a prime example. Their businesses are open and they have been pretty much covid free. Everyone benefits, less people dying and the economy reopens sooner. Again, you are repeating the government line hook, line and sinker.

Re: vaccine. How many other countries are delaying the gap between jabs as much as we are? Going against the vaccine manufacturer guidelines?
We approved quicker than other countries. Fauci backtracked as a diplomatic move, but hey, we can all believe what we want on that.

It is far too early to claim the UK vaccine roll out is a success. Let's wait and see. Premature claims of "World beating" are banded about far too much in the UK at the moment. At best we are 10% of population vaccinated, but I believe that includes those only receiving one jab. It may be closer to 5%. We won't know the outcome of this gamble for some time.

Re: people blaming.
I was referring to this story. Initially it was a witch hunt but was later shown to be out of order. But it is indicative of the wider "blame the public" approach being promoted by this government and their friends in the media.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-derbyshire-55625062

Re: Starmer. The schools debacle has been fuelled by him. He makes some small criticisms but barely enough. I think his PR team have told him to lay low until the next election! Not good enough after 4 more years of this absolute clusterfeck from the current Government. There seems to be little hope in UK politics at the moment. The Tories are devoid of talent and competence. Dangerous combination when mixed in with COVID and BREXIT.

 

[Tibs]

what can happen to the individuals in the Government heavily involved? feck all, Boris, Hancock, Raab, Gove, Sunak will all get off.

Tony Blair took us to war based on lies and nothing happened to him!

 

[DavidDeSchmikes]

what can happen to the individuals in the Government heavily involved? feck all, Boris, Hancock, Raab, Gove, Sunak will all get off.

Tony Blair took us to war based on lies and nothing happened to him!

nothing will happen. There will be some inquiry, lessons will be learned, they all apologise, their pals in the media cover for them, and life goes on.
IMO Gove and Sunak will be the next Tory leader.....or Jeremy Hunt

 

[Classical Mechanic]

nothing will happen. There will be some inquiry, lessons will be learned, they all apologise, their pals in the media cover for them, and life goes on.
IMO Gove and Sunak will be the next Tory leader.....or Jeremy Hunt

Hunt has done a lot of interviews throughout this positioning himself often against government measures. I think Patel would be in the running too, she has a Thatcher-esque cold determination.

 

[giggs-beckham]

Is it too early to say the jabs are having an influence on the sharply falling case numbers?

 

[jojojo]

Is it too early to say the jabs are having an influence on the sharply falling case numbers?

Too early to see it in case numbers. Though the first jab rollout is running well, the actual number of the population who are now three weeks post (first) jab is only a small proportion of the population. In any case the studies from IC and the ONS both suggest that case rates are highest amongst teens/younger adults whereas the vaccine is mostly going out to the 70+

The impact on hospitalisations could start to be visible soon. Sometime in March we should see an impact on deaths.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

This is interesting. India might have reached herd immunity already, without needing vaccines. In the biggest cities anyway.

Dr Nirmalya Mohapatra, a senior resident doctor at Ram Manohar Lohia hospital in Delhi, said they did not have a single Covid-19 patient. “Cases have fallen very rapidly,” he said. “There was a surge two months ago but now we are not seeing any patients admitted to the Covid ward. There is not a single Covid patient in our hospital right now. It has not been this low since April.”

They have a very young population so the death rate has been low throughout. Just goes to show there really might be more than one way to get through this.

 

[DavidDeSchmikes]

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[Heardy]

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Surely this can’t be a surprise. In an ideal world, kids could probably do with repeating the year.

Extending compulsory education for all kids to 19 rather than 18? Make kids sit GCSEs when they’re 17 rather than 16.

The knock on consequences are huge but kids are going to miss out!

 

[golden_blunder]

Surely this can’t be a surprise. In an ideal world, kids could probably do with repeating the year.

Extending compulsory education for all kids to 19 rather than 18? Make kids sit GCSEs when they’re 17 rather than 16.

The knock on consequences are huge but kids are going to miss out!

I suggested this previously but reasoning against was that it has knock on effect to universities income and no graduates going into workforce

Unless you are literally just talking about primary and secondary? I still think it’s a good idea

 

[Heardy]

I suggested this previously but reasoning against was that it has knock on effect to universities income and no graduates going into workforce

Unless you are literally just talking about primary and secondary? I still think it’s a good idea

I agree in principle. I mean I’ve not thought through the entirety of the consequences, but surely if they scrap the current academic year, those already enrolled at uni go back in September on the course they should have been in this year. I guess unis would miss out on fees this academic year if it was voided, but I expect they’re under pressure to relax fees as is.

Those kids that are doing a levels this year have to defer until sept 2022 - these are the ones that are left in limbo but it could be far worse.

Offer them volunteering experience / work experience as part of covid response, probably give them solid life experience whilst their academic careers are on hold.

Knock on impact is huge as any kid born now would probably have to delay ther start of education until 5 years old rather than 4, but is that such a bad thing? I guess it’s be a permanent change, but seems sensible in terms of not disadvantage for kids that will have effectively lost a year of education if not more.

 

[DavidDeSchmikes]

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[Wibble]

This is interesting. India might have reached herd immunity already, without needing vaccines. In the biggest cities anyway.



They have a very young population so the death rate has been low throughout. Just goes to show there really might be more than one way to get through this.

I wonder if their official death toll of 150k is accurate? Especially if the big cities have had such high levels of infection?

 

[giggs-beckham]

Too early to see it in case numbers. Though the first jab rollout is running well, the actual number of the population who are now three weeks post (first) jab is only a small proportion of the population. In any case the studies from IC and the ONS both suggest that case rates are highest amongst teens/younger adults whereas the vaccine is mostly going out to the 70+

The impact on hospitalisations could start to be visible soon. Sometime in March we should see an impact on deaths.

It's just that the drop in cases is far steeper than the 1st drop which was gradual. And lots more kids are attending now.

 

[horsechoker]

Surely this can’t be a surprise. In an ideal world, kids could probably do with repeating the year.

Extending compulsory education for all kids to 19 rather than 18? Make kids sit GCSEs when they’re 17 rather than 16.

The knock on consequences are huge but kids are going to miss out!

Movies will finally reflect real life. 26 years olds as year 10s/whatever the equivalent American grade is.

 

[entropy]

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[Gambit]

Johnson & Johnson, 66% effective, good but not the steriliser we were hoping for.

 

[Gambit]

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There's been a lot of undercounting all over the world.

 

[entropy]

There's been a lot of undercounting all over the world.

It isn't just about undercounting. He is a vile scumbag who should rot in prison IMO.

The attorney general’s report also scrutinized immunity provisions granted to health care providers codified by Mr. Cuomo in the state budget. The report said the protection of immunity may have prompted some nursing homes to make financially motivated decisions at the height of the pandemic, like admitting patients even when the facilities were facing staff shortages or were unequipped to care for them.

 

[Eboue]

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[One Night Only]

This is interesting. India might have reached herd immunity already, without needing vaccines. In the biggest cities anyway.



They have a very young population so the death rate has been low throughout. Just goes to show there really might be more than one way to get through this.

I did say at the start of all this that a lockdown should have only included the vulnerable & old, let the young population go on pretty much as normal and all catch it early doors. However, not sure how great that would work due to healthcare workers and the like, would have been difficult to stop transmission to those who were shielding still.

 

[2cents]

This is interesting. India might have reached herd immunity already, without needing vaccines. In the biggest cities anyway.



They have a very young population so the death rate has been low throughout. Just goes to show there really might be more than one way to get through this.

That’s quite encouraging news.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

That’s quite encouraging news.

Definitely. The one thing the poorest companies have in their favour, in common with India, is a very young population. While rich, elderly nations bicker about vaccines they could all reach herd immunity via the back door.

 

[tombombadil]

India coronavirus: How a group of volunteers 'exposed' hidden Covid-19 deaths

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-54985981

 

[africanspur]

India coronavirus: How a group of volunteers 'exposed' hidden Covid-19 deaths

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-54985981

Very interesting read, thank you.

 

[berbatrick]

I wonder if their official death toll of 150k is accurate? Especially if the big cities have had such high levels of infection?

My cousin in Mumbai has been receiving covid patients (she passes them on to specialist hospitals, doesn't treat them) and says that the number of patients has been going down rapidly, pretty much in line with the data.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/

It's possible that the data has been underestimated throughout the pandemic, but the trend at least is consistent with what she has seen.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

My cousin in Mumbai has been receiving covid patients (she passes them on to specialist hospitals, doesn't treat them) and says that the number of patients has been going down rapidly, pretty much in line with the data.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/

It's possible that the data has been underestimated throughout the pandemic, but the trend at least is consistent with what she has seen.

Good to hear.

 

[Dumbstar]

India coronavirus: How a group of volunteers 'exposed' hidden Covid-19 deaths

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-54985981

Shock, horror, no shit no Sherlock. (not aimed at you Tom, appreciate you brought this forward).

India and Pakistan are useless for death recording, and even if they can record they will lie. It's in their DNA.

I'll give a simple example, my mum's sister passed away two weeks ago outside Islamabad (capital city). Apparently, she was rushed to the hospital but died at the gates, it was very likely a heart attack. Doctors rushed out of the hospital but declared she was gone and let the family take her straight home for burial. No checking for covid.

If this ignorance can occur in a large town, what about smaller ones and villages? India are getting herd immunity in exactly the same way as the UK are. With lots of deaths.

 

[Josep Dowling]

It’s debatable what another party would have done. You can only criticize what’s in front of you. So let’s look at the Government so far;
- slow to react to initial outbreak despite Spain & Italy clocking up horrendous numbers
- the pm shaking hands with Covid patients ignoring the dangers
- transferring old people from hospitals back into care homes without testing, triggering outbreaks
- eat out to help out putting the economy before health
- shady supply and work contracts for family or friends, financial gains from the pandemic
- constant mixed, confusing messaging often not understood by their own members
- stay in your own area, unless you’re Dominic Cummings. Laughing it off when it’s brought up
- constant uncertainty around schools
- having to be shamed into helping feed kids, many of them ganging up and attacking Marcus Rashford for raising the issue
- gambling with the vaccine against the advice of the manufacturer. Only time will tell if that gamble pays off
- not doing a national lockdown when they knew for weeks about the new strain and how contagious it is

i am sure that there are many more that I’ve forgotten. Of course the government should be held to account, whether it’s the right time now or not is the question

by the way, the EU ordered in good faith, I fail to see how supply issue is their fault

Even when the EU is clearly trying to stop vaccinations going elsewhere because they have been caught out with their own politics, you still have people trying to defend them. Just admit the EU can get things wrong, and like any other organisation, will do things to suit themselves? Is that too hard?

The UK government did many things wrong, but I standby no matter who was in power similar mistakes would have been made, or others would have been highlighted by mainstream media. It’s how politics always works.

 

[arnie_ni]

Can someone explain why they vaccine is being blocked to ni?

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Can someone explain why they vaccine is being blocked to ni?

It isn’t. That’s the press (and the DUP) jumping all over the worst case scenario. The EU are threatening to tighten up controls about exporting vaccines out of the EU. This can theoretically reduce supplies into the UK as a whole. It could also (even more theoretically) involve tightening up of the Irish border. The latter scenario is particularly unlikely because no vaccines are shipped across that border.

Bit of a dick move to invoke article 16 all the same. Thankfully they’re doing a Tory style u-turn. They’re all the rage these days.

 

[arnie_ni]

It isn’t. That’s the press (and the DUP) jumping all over the worst case scenario. The EU are threatening to tighten up controls about exporting vaccines out of the EU. This can theoretically reduce supplies into the UK as a whole. It could also (even more theoretically) involve tightening up of the Irish border. The latter scenario is particularly unlikely because no vaccines are shipped across that border.

Bit of a dick move to invoke article 16 all the same. Thankfully they’re doing a Tory style u-turn. They’re all the rage these days.

It was actually BBC quoting Boris that I seen. Thanks for the explanation

 

[Wibble]

My cousin in Mumbai has been receiving covid patients (she passes them on to specialist hospitals, doesn't treat them) and says that the number of patients has been going down rapidly, pretty much in line with the data.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/

It's possible that the data has been underestimated throughout the pandemic, but the trend at least is consistent with what she has seen.

I'm sure the trend is correct. I was just wondering how India had 150k deaths vs 100k in the UK if infections have been so widespread.

Reporting or age profile of the population or season/weather or a combination maybe?

 

[Wibble]

@Pogue Mahone @Tony Babangida

Interesting article about the varying immune responses and some research being done in AU.

https://www.theguardian.com/austral...owing-coronavirus-and-its-startling-discovery

 

[McGrathsipan]

Is the light at the end of the tunnel getting a bit brighter?

 

[Wibble]

Is the light at the end of the tunnel getting a bit brighter?

I bloody well hope so.

 

[McGrathsipan]

I bloody well hope so.

We might get back a semblance of normality soon