SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Pexbo

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How many confirmed variants are there now?

The original Chinese virus, the South African variant, Brazilian variant, UK variant and now an Indian variant?

Is this mutating more quickly than other viruses?
Im pretty sure there is literally tens of thousands of mutations identified. It’s the variations which have the ability to become the dominant strain that are the issue.
 

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The people of India are suffering like hell with this new variant. Our Government are making people returning to the UK if they hold a UK or Irish(!) passport to pay to quarantined in an Hotel from Friday. First off, why from Friday what not from last Monday? Second, what if people cannot afford it, will they be refused entrance? It is a disaster waiting to happe. Third wave guaranteed for mid-May early June with no vaccine protection for the mutation.
Where have you seen there is no vaccine protection for the mutation? I'm not sure anyone knows whether there is or there is not, yet.
 

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Heartbreaking what's happening in India, this is exactly what happens when health systems are overwhelmed

 

Pogue Mahone

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Does anyone who lives in India (or who is closely following what’s happening there) know if reinfections are a big part of this second wave?

Only a couple of months ago I was reading theories that cases had died right down because so many people had been infected already and the hospitals never got overwhelmed because the population was so young.

If all of the above is true then previous infection isn’t giving any protection from the Indian variant and it’s making young people much sicker than original covid. Which is an absolutely shite scenario.

I’m hoping that, in reality, the first wave didn’t infect nearly as many people as we thought. Anyone know if this is a realistic possibility?
 

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The variants are obviously a concern, but compared to some viruses like influenza it is actually mutating relatively slowly. We will obviously have to keep up with them by adjusting the vaccines over the years as it keeps on evolving though.

My understanding is that the three common strains at the moment (UK, SA and Brazil) have some major mutations in common which could suggest there is an evolutionary path which is being followed.
Im pretty sure there is literally tens of thousands of mutations identified. It’s the variations which have the ability to become the dominant strain that are the issue.
Very interesting thanks guys.
 

Wolverine

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Does anyone who lives in India (or who is closely following what’s happening there) know if reinfections are a big part of this second wave?

Only a couple of months ago I was reading theories that cases had died right down because so many people had been infected already and the hospitals never got overwhelmed because the population was so young.

If all of the above is true then previous infection isn’t giving any protection from the Indian variant and it’s making young people much sicker than original covid. Which is an absolutely shite scenario.

I’m hoping that, in reality, the first wave didn’t infect nearly as many people as we thought. Anyone know if this is a realistic possibility?
There's some recent longitudinal studies there I believe ongoing
https://theprint.in/health/this-csi...ia-is-in-the-grip-of-covid-wave-again/639472/

Huge regional variation of course but could be a combination of lower prevalence in previous waves, declining immunity and susceptibility to a possibly more lethal, infective variant along with reduced distancing due to festivals, political rallies, complacency etc
 

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Does anyone who lives in India (or who is closely following what’s happening there) know if reinfections are a big part of this second wave?

Only a couple of months ago I was reading theories that cases had died right down because so many people had been infected already and the hospitals never got overwhelmed because the population was so young.

If all of the above is true then previous infection isn’t giving any protection from the Indian variant and it’s making young people much sicker than original covid. Which is an absolutely shite scenario.

I’m hoping that, in reality, the first wave didn’t infect nearly as many people as we thought. Anyone know if this is a realistic possibility?
A miniscule sample size and purely anecdotal but I have work contact with Malaysia and India. Lots have had covid but no reinfections so far. Our Indian call center is getting slammed far harder than before but no reports of reinfections so far (of course there might be as I don't interact with everyone there).
 

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McGrathsipan

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Heartbreaking what's happening in India, this is exactly what happens when health systems are overwhelmed

India has like 1.3 billion people. Thats a mind boggle of a figure of people. I am surprised that they have managed to avoid such a scenario up to now.
Did they even have a functioning health system before the pandemic?

It dreadful
 

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Im reading that there was still religious festivals, weddings, cricket etc, why??
Mindboggling, isn't it? But then again, this pandemic has shown time and again how it lay relatively stable and then the numbers explode in a matter of a few weeks.
 

golden_blunder

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Mindboggling, isn't it? But then again, this pandemic has shown time and again how it lay relatively stable and then the numbers explode in a matter of a few weeks.
It makes you think what would have happened if Boris has went with his original plan, to let it rip through society to try and get herd immunity
 

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Im reading that there was still religious festivals, weddings, cricket etc, why??
Last week, 650 000 people gathered in a Hindu festival. And that while already the virus was moving fast :

https://www.reuters.com/world/india...out-hindus-throng-indian-festival-2021-04-14/

Crazy super spreader event. Thinking about how it went down in Italy after that Atalanta match with what, 40k.
 

Pogue Mahone

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Mindboggling, isn't it? But then again, this pandemic has shown time and again how it lay relatively stable and then the numbers explode in a matter of a few weeks.
Exponential growth is a hard thing to get your head around. It means when things go wrong they go wrong fast. That’s why the exit from lockdown needs to be slow and careful. Only takes a few superspreader events to put the whole country deeply in the shit.
 

Pexbo

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Exponential growth is a hard thing to get your head around. It means when things go wrong they go wrong fast. That’s why the exit from lockdown needs to be slow and careful. Only takes a few superspreader events to put the whole country deeply in the shit.
Humans will never understand exponential growth. We don’t have the capacity for it. The best we can do is learn it as a fact and accept it’s true but you never get your head around it.

My favourites:

If you put a grain of rice on a chess board square, then two on the square next to it, then four next to that and so on. By the time you reach the last square there isn’t enough grains of rice on earth.


If you fold a piece of paper in half 103 times it will be thicker than the observable universe.
 

Rado_N

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Humans will never understand exponential growth. We don’t have the capacity for it. The best we can do is learn it as a fact and accept it’s true but you never get your head around it.

My favourites:

If you put a grain of rice on a chess board square, then two on the square next to it, then four next to that and so on. By the time you reach the last square there isn’t enough grains of rice on earth.


If you fold a piece of paper in half 103 times it will be thicker than the observable universe.
I’ve heard both these before but they still bend my brain.

Exponential growth is unfathomable.
 

Penna

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Depressingly we have just passed 3 million deaths. And given the huge under-reporting that seems to be occurring in India (and no doubt elsewhere as well) it is likely much higher.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-toll/
The situation in India is so terrible, with hospitals running out of oxygen when patients are already on vents. There was a fire in a Covid hospital yesterday which killed some patients, too. The true number of people dying from Covid won't ever be known.
 

Simbo

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Feels like we're heading straight toward a new UK wave with the amount of new cases in our offices the last two weeks. Overall UK numbers seem ok though, must just be the type of people we employ...

One guy I work with tested positive on one of these quick DIY lateral flow tests on Monday before he was showing symptoms. Prevented him from spreading it around to others for the next day or so before his symptoms started. They are worth doing!
 

lynchie

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Feels like we're heading straight toward a new UK wave with the amount of new cases in our offices the last two weeks. Overall UK numbers seem ok though, must just be the type of people we employ...

One guy I work with tested positive on one of these quick DIY lateral flow tests on Monday before he was showing symptoms. Prevented him from spreading it around to others for the next day or so before his symptoms started. They are worth doing!
Big picture, the UK are in good shape, thanks to the vaccine rollout. Cases are low for pretty much the whole country, there were good results released today on both vaccines reducing transmission, all the top 4 priority groups should have completed their full course next week. We had a little test of the system with opening the schools in March, and nothing bad happened, and now cases are at an even lower level.

There will still be isolated outbreaks, like the one in your offices, but between vaccinations and the LFTs, more of those chains of transmission should be broken.
 

TMDaines

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Humans will never understand exponential growth. We don’t have the capacity for it. The best we can do is learn it as a fact and accept it’s true but you never get your head around it.

My favourites:

If you put a grain of rice on a chess board square, then two on the square next to it, then four next to that and so on. By the time you reach the last square there isn’t enough grains of rice on earth.


If you fold a piece of paper in half 103 times it will be thicker than the observable universe.
I was familiar with the first, because it is from a fable, but the latter has blown my mind.

The other side of the coin though is exponential growth can’t continue for long because of the finite resources, in this case, the hosts.
 

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That article is horrific. No wonder Boris cancelled.
Systemic failure from the politicians.
also doesn’t anyone watch world News? They had 1 wave. Didn’t they think there would be more?
Mainly we (re)elected a right wing clown whose first priority is always to preserve his own image.

Did you know fact: the prime minister of India has now been in the position for 7 years, yet hasn't addressed a SINGLE press conference.
 

berbatrick

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Apparently cremating more people than are dying.

Based on reports in Indian media too, it appears that it's a few states (MP, UP, Gujarat - all have cities in your graphs) which are undercounting. This doesn't seem to be happening in the other states, at least not to this extent. There are reports from UP that they are also deliberately sending false negative PCR results.
If we get reliable excessive mortality data, only then we'll know what's been happening.
 

golden_blunder

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Mainly we (re)elected a right wing clown whose first priority is always to preserve his own image.

Did you know fact: the prime minister of India has now been in the position for 7 years, yet hasn't addressed a SINGLE press conference.
Wow!
do you think he will get voted out in the next one after this?
 

Skills

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Wow!
do you think he will get voted out in the next one after this?
Nope. He's got very powerful backers which means the entire Indian media is just pure propaganda and whenever he's under any kind of pressure a whole host Indian celebrities openly come out and endorse him.
 

golden_blunder

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Nope. He's got very powerful backers which means the entire Indian media is just pure propaganda and whenever he's under any kind of pressure a whole host Indian celebrities openly come out and endorse him.
That’s a depressing thought but let’s see, there’s been a lot of death. It would take someone very special to back that!
 

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That’s a depressing thought but let’s see, there’s been a lot of death. It would take someone very special to back that!
The only way that all those covid related deaths, as well as the ineptitude during the early stages of the pandemic is for a proper investigation to be held.
And Boris is using every trick to delay that, in the hope that people will much less interested if and when it happens.
 

golden_blunder

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The only way that all those covid related deaths, as well as the ineptitude during the early stages of the pandemic is for a proper investigation to be held.
And Boris is using every trick to delay that, in the hope that people will much less interested if and when it happens.
Was talking about the Indian PM whom Boris seems competent compared too but you’re right too
 

anant

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Im reading that there was still religious festivals, weddings, cricket etc, why??
That's not it. Last year, PM raised $1.3B from citizens as a fund to fight with the pandemic by the name of PM Cares fund. In the last 4-5 months of last year, when we started bringing the curve down, he laid the foundation stone of Ram temple (which was his biggest manifesto point this election), laid foundation stone of Central Vista (we're spending $2.7B on reconstructing the parliament for some reason). He also passed a pretty controversial Farm law that led to massive protests in the country.

All this was being done in the middle of a pandemic when you'd expect the PM to be hands-on on dealing with the crisis and putting all other things like these on the back burner. In late January, when our case count was <20k, PM declared India's victory over pandemic in an address to World Economic Forum. We started exporting vaccines to countries that weren't in immediate need to get brownie points, we exported Oxygen as well for some weird reason.

And then we started all this. Also, somewhere in the middle, our Health minister went to a Press conference and endorsed an Ayurvedic medicine created by a popular godman as a cure for Corona, without any scientific backing
 

golden_blunder

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That's not it. Last year, PM raised $1.3B from citizens as a fund to fight with the pandemic by the name of PM Cares fund. In the last 4-5 months of last year, when we started bringing the curve down, he laid the foundation stone of Ram temple (which was his biggest manifesto point this election), laid foundation stone of Central Vista (we're spending $2.7B on reconstructing the parliament for some reason). He also passed a pretty controversial Farm law that led to massive protests in the country.

All this was being done in the middle of a pandemic when you'd expect the PM to be hands-on on dealing with the crisis and putting all other things like these on the back burner. In late January, when our case count was <20k, PM declared India's victory over pandemic in an address to World Economic Forum. We started exporting vaccines to countries that weren't in immediate need to get brownie points, we exported Oxygen as well for some weird reason.

And then we started all this. Also, somewhere in the middle, our Health minister went to a Press conference and endorsed an Ayurvedic medicine created by a popular godman as a cure for Corona, without any scientific backing
Christ. It just seems completely uncontrolled looking in from the outside. It’s heartbreaking to watch