No I didn’t, you need to re-check my post as I pressed publish before I was finished.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
28% over here die. I know the exact number yes.
So that was in March, with an assumed peak in May. When the figures were assessed for May, the results were...
https://associationofanaesthetists-publications.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/anae.15425
That's a pretty good prediction from limited information, all in all. Maybe you misunderstood it?
The graph clearly predicts that 510,000 will have died by summer 2020 in the UK and with that would be the end of the epidemic. Assuming they completely ignore seasonal aspects of upper respiratory viruses, and there an assume that transmission will just keep growing exponentially until the entire country has it, which we now know doesn’t actually happen .
Not sure which I had, my symptoms were mainly fatigue and headache lasted about 5 days. No cough or temperature
Wow, what a tough guy!
Growth in case rates in London. Delta was mostly leveling off, with wobbles and a slight rise in some age groups as party season started. Then Omicron arrives and rather than displacing Delta is good and sits on top of it.
Splitting it by age groups (but keeping Delta and Omicron together because we won't be able to divide them accurately for another week
Nationally by age groups is showing the same thing but with a couple of days delay:
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Splitting it by age groups (but keeping Delta and Omicron together because we won't be able to divide them accurately for another week
Nationally by age groups is showing the same thing but with a couple of days delay:
As you can see they ran simulations until December 2021, they assumed that there would be multiple waves as a result of mitigation measures, and they did not assume the pandemic would end by the end of 2021.
We're currently at 147k deaths and 11m cases, almost at December 31, 2021, after following many of the intermittent interventions recommended in the report. Terrible predictions, right?
Fair point, I was only looking at the current mortality rate so yeah, I’m off there, but almost 10% is not insignificant, it’s certainly another worst worst case scenario prediction.
Are you arguing the models prediction of mitigation vs lockdown are credible though? Surely not? I mean, the 7 none lockdown States and the countries with short or no lockdowns show that it absolutely can be mitigated way way way better than they predicted without stay at home orders.
So Sweden have double Irelands population and have less cases per day and less people in ICU. Is Ireland just doing really badly or are Sweden doing something right?
I’m pretty sure it’s not seasonal. The problem in Ireland is that our health system gets overwhelmed in winter every year even without Covid so any surge in cases was always likely to be a big issue. This idea that once we opened we opened for good always seemed like pure fantasy to me as a result, especially as our main easing of restrictions came at the same time as schools going back and sending people back to the offices. I said at the time it was madness (and got shot down in here) and that we should have opened much earlier in the summer and I think it’s obvious now that should have happened. Our Tanaiste said himself we can’t deny people a summer again this year with a prolonged lockdown so hopefully they’ve learnt their lesson
I will say we weren’t locked down over summer though and that’s a total exaggeration, to be fair. We could move around freely, visit people and there was outdoor dining, not great but luckily we got a good summer weather wise.
We socialize VERY well.
Bit of a disaster if that trend continues.
They are making decisions to protect the healthcare system. Hope this helps.
Fair enough, it’s easy to get in a spin with all of this. Prolonged lockdowns and feck all extra pay for doctors and nurses has been my biggest gripe all along, hence the frustration.
It’s hard for me to not see it as seasonal over here when the ICU wave looks like this (and is starting to head up again now).
Nobody knows. The more interesting/relevant comparison is between Sweden and its immediate neighbours anyway. Ireland is so enmeshed with the Uk/EU it’s almost impossible to judge our own approach in isolation.
Which can’t be underestimated in fairness.
It’s really not though as we’ve argued all along. No more so than comparing Germany with Denmark.
All countries with the lowest excess mortality rates in Europe have smaller 5m-ish populations, coincidence? Most 10m+ have similar. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker
A lot of media reports about a 2 week circuit breaker after Xmas
Presume it’s way to early to infer anything from that though.
This is what I questioned a week or so ago though; if Alpha/Delta/Vaccines provide diminished protection against Omicron, then the worry has got to be that Omicron provides little protection against Alpha/Delta.
In which case it doesn’t really matter if Omicron is less severe if Delta can still operate in parallel and it’s not a case of Omicron’s lower mortality rate replacing delta’s rather Omicron’s mortality rate in addition to deltas.
In which case the SARS-COV-3 thing you mentioned feels particularly relevant and particularly shit.
You'd think they'd close schools and not let the walking petri dishes bring covid home instead of closing cinemas at 8pm. Closing pubs means more house parties over Christmas too and a pub with only table service is less of a risk than a unregulated house party than can go all night. I'm all for helping the health care system but these restrictions make so little sense.
Education is always going to be prioritised. I agree that in an ideal world from a virus point of view schools shouldn’t have been open at all since March 2020. Our little man made systems wouldn’t allow that though.
Some suggesting now but impossible to enforce. Even the one after Christmas, I can't see as many people following compared to last year without knowing there is an out at the end of this and it won't be extended or come back in a few months
People are less bunched together in big towns
Yeah, exactly. One of the many really important unknowns if whether omicron takes off like crazy because it’s much more transmissible than delta (so will eventually displace it) or purely because it is able to blitz through a population that has some immunity to delta but no protection against omicron. In which case you have two viruses operating in parallel and catching one won’t stop you catching the other.
Thanks for the explanation. Does it mean even if someone is getting the 2nd jab now they will be decently protected as opposed to if they had half a year back.
Also what you are saying seems like every new variant (inevitable) will require another booster jab.
We’re two weeks removed from cases rising above 50,000 and hospital admissions are lower than mid October when two weeks before that cases were around 20,000 a day less
Can I ask a question? A few on here are certainly more informed than me so hopefully can answer.
Sorry if it sounds daft.
Ive had 2 jabs so far (Pfizer) and just had notification that I can book a booster shot, which I will.
My first jab had to be delayed as I contracted covid. There was guidance that you had to wait so many weeks before getting the jab.
I read that something similar applies now with the booster.
My question is what happens if you have the jab/booster while having covid?
I'm sure if you had the symptoms and tested positive beforehand you would inform the right people and this would be addressed. However what if you had it but didn't know/hadnt done the test and we're in fact positive?
Sorry if it sounds daft.
Ive had 2 jabs so far (Pfizer) and just had notification that I can book a booster shot, which I will.
My first jab had to be delayed as I contracted covid. There was guidance that you had to wait so many weeks before getting the jab.
I read that something similar applies now with the booster.
My question is what happens if you have the jab/booster while having covid?
I'm sure if you had the symptoms and tested positive beforehand you would inform the right people and this would be addressed. However what if you had it but didn't know/hadnt done the test and we're in fact positive?
Delta has been rather stable for a while in UK, so boosters already will bring it down a bit, and there will be some restrictions and behaviour changes which will further have an impact. And I don’t think there is much reason to think that omicron infection would have exactly zero immunity against delta.
I don’t think anyone said “exactly zero”?
Why are you guys still talking with the village idiot? You know he's dumb. You know he is wrong about most things. You know he will be boring and tedious. You know he will move the goal posts. Where is the upside in talking with him?
No. I didn't imply so either. But as close to equilibrium as UK is then even a little bit immunity will be helpful.
Bit harsh on @Pexbo
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Delta is starting to decline…but very slowly. The R for Omicron is genuinely insane. It has been 24 days since it was first identified in SA and now it makes up 80% of cases in London…unless it’s significantly milder I don’t see how the NHS possibly copes with the case numbers we’re talking about and we won’t know that for sure in time. 2 week Circuit breaker after Xmas to slow spread and give time for boosters and their effects to take hold seems inevitable.
How much do we expect world leaders to solve the actual cause of all these lockdowns and invest in healthcare and capacity once this is all under control.
My guess would be nothing and we will forget about it and whenever the next arrives the same problem.
operating in a society where the hospital capacity is already at 90% full isn’t the way.
My guess would be nothing and we will forget about it and whenever the next arrives the same problem.
operating in a society where the hospital capacity is already at 90% full isn’t the way.
I don’t think there are many governments that are interested in solving these problems. They’re interested in capitalising on them.
Oh you
I agree. Cutting back so we’re on the limit each winter to save dosh is ludicrous. We’ve been given a stark reminder that health and economy are linked. However, I don’t see any capacity that can cope with the numbers omicron is throwing up. An R of 7 with mitigations already in place - if the populace had zero prior immunity and this thing had the same hospitalisation rate as delta - how can you possibly cope with that? You’re talking the entire population being ill over a 6 week period…
did you not see the part where I said hospital admissions haven’t gone up? In months?
Land mass 450km v 84km, so less crowded maybe?