SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[jojojo]

Listening to the radio earlier and Leo Varadker (ireland) says that he expected that over the next few years we can expect winter shutdowns or “steps back” and we should take the opportunity to do our stuff in other months. Or words to that effect.

troubling

Not just troubling, fundamentally bad messaging and if that's what they're planning, it's bad planning.

Plus, I don't think it's reasonable. We've got old people seeing out their final years alone - or being told that's how they ought to behave. We've got 20-something's who should be out meeting people, learning stuff, enjoying the world, building relationships who are being told it's wrong. We've got kids who don't know if they're going to school tomorrow or not.

Quality of life is a real thing, and we've all made sacrifices on that side to preserve life.

National health services need to be redesigned to protect us, not us redesigned to protect them. In the UK it's been death by a thousand cuts for the NHS, years of taking anything that look like a contingency plan out of the system, blaming patients for bed-blocking when they mean the care system has collapsed.

At any rate, I've ranted this all before, but if they mean anything more than the occasional warning not to show up at A&E unless it's actually urgent then I want the problem fixed, not the people.

 

[Smores]

Not just troubling, fundamentally bad messaging and if that's what they're planning, it's bad planning.

Plus, I don't think it's reasonable. We've got old people seeing out their final years alone - or being told that's how they ought to behave. We've got 20-something's who should be out meeting people, learning stuff, enjoying the world, building relationships who are being told it's wrong. We've got kids who don't know if they're going to school tomorrow or not.

Quality of life is a real thing, and we've all made sacrifices on that side to preserve life.

National health services need to be redesigned to protect us, not us redesigned to protect them. In the UK it's been death by a thousand cuts for the NHS, years of taking anything that look like a contingency plan out of the system, blaming patients for bed-blocking when they mean the care system has collapsed.

At any rate, I've ranted this all before, but if they mean anything more than the occasional warning not to show up at A&E unless it's actually urgent then I want the problem fixed, not the people.

That's a bit dramatic. Worst case we have this every year and it never goes away, society can most definitely cope with limited winter circuit breakers.

I said in the summer we should plan for a circuit breaker. If everyone had known first week of December and mid Jan there was going to be a week of soft lockdown that wouldn't come as a huge detriment.

It's this constant unknown thats the issue. Policy has to follow the data but wouldn't it have been better to cancel a circuit breaker if not needed.

 

[choccy77]

Clearly all the Tory party leaks, are designed to force Boris into not locking down it seems.

A lot of the top Tories including the Chancellor are against restrictions also.

It would be sensible to have a 2 week lockdown, but I suspect, they will do what they are doing now, by forcing businesses to close through lack of trade, so that they don't have to take financial responsibility in helping them out.

 

[jojojo]

That's a bit dramatic. Worst case we have this every year and it never goes away, society can most definitely cope with limited winter circuit breakers.

I said in the summer we should plan for a circuit breaker. If everyone had known first week of December and mid Jan there was going to be a week of soft lockdown that wouldn't come as a huge detriment.

It's this constant unknown thats the issue. Policy has to follow the data but wouldn't it have been better to cancel a circuit breaker if not needed.

If he'd said this year, or even for the next 18 months it wouldn't irritate me as much. When we talk about "next few years" I doubt the will or the serious intention to deal with the fundamental issues.

Then there's the epidemiology itself. We moved a lot of children's RSV (a virus that affects babies/infants mostly) into the summer this year, seemingly as a side-effect of winter lockdowns on children and what happened when we opened back up. We don't know when the next major covid variant will show up - Delta arrived in April/May. This one arrived at the ideal time for Christmas ready to hit the hospitals hard in time for the flu season.

Do we schedule our lives around the assumption that things can change in a month at any time of year, and therefore just book holidays, or weddings etc a week in advance? What about house moves, sporting events, going to university, starting a new job or a new business etc.

I've no problem with restrictions, but they have to be to deal with an unexpected problem, or to buy time for a specific action to take effect. Planning for annual boosters is one thing. Planning for intermittent shutdowns by guessing which months we can do things in is just that, playing a guessing game.

 

[sglowrider]

 

[Mickeza]

Cabinet meeting at 2pm - what are the bets? I’m going guidance only with no further legal restrictions relying on people to naturally take precautions. They gambled opening up restrictions with Delta in the face of some bleak scenarios and the hospitalisations were lower than some of the best case models - the fact the SA data looks very promising, the Danish data has started to show signs it may go a similar way, we’ll soon be giving over 1m boosters a day, the lack of political capital and that he’s always been a gambling opportunist makes me think Boris will go with option A. Even putting aside the hospitalisation numbers and assuming the best case models of around 2k a day turn out correct meaning it’s theoretically manageable - I don’t see how society functions with the case numbers we’re talking resulting in the numbers of people being unwell/having to isolate simultaneously…that’s the biggest risk for me.

 

[stw2022]

Foregone conclusion they’re going to point to voluntary reduction in hospitality bookings over Christmas, parties etc to argue that legal restrictions aren’t necessary.

Plus how the feck can he legitimately legislate now given last couple of weeks?

8pm New Year’s Eve curfew would be a bit shit but oddly hilarious at same time

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Cabinet meeting at 2pm - what are the bets? I’m going guidance only with no further legal restrictions relying on people to naturally take precautions. They gambled opening up restrictions with Delta in the face of some bleak scenarios and the hospitalisations were lower than some of the best case models - the fact the SA data looks very promising, the Danish data has started to show signs it may go a similar way, we’ll soon be giving over 1m boosters a day, the lack of political capital and that he’s always been a gambling opportunist makes me think Boris will go with option A. Even putting aside the hospitalisation numbers and assuming the best case models of around 2k a day turn out correct meaning it’s theoretically manageable - I don’t see how society functions with the case numbers we’re talking resulting in the numbers of people being unwell/having to isolate simultaneously…that’s the biggest risk for me.

If you’re going all in on the take a punt and hope we’re ok approach I think you need to have a think about duration of self isolation for positive cases/close contacts. The available data points towards a possible reduced duration of illness with omicron and allowing people return to work a bit sooner than with previous variants might be the only way to keep hospitals (and other essential services) functioning if exponential growth continues at the current rate.

 

[choccy77]

Foregone conclusion they’re going to point to voluntary reduction in hospitality bookings over Christmas, parties etc to argue that legal restrictions aren’t necessary.

Plus how the feck can he legitimately legislate now given last couple of weeks?

8pm New Year’s Eve curfew would be a bit shit but oddly hilarious at same time

So many people will not keep that regardless.

I still swear Khan hasn't cancelled his Trafalgar Square celebration as yet?

 

[jojojo]

Cabinet meeting at 2pm - what are the bets? I’m going guidance only with no further legal restrictions relying on people to naturally take precautions. They gambled opening up restrictions with Delta in the face of some bleak scenarios and the hospitalisations were lower than some of the best case models - the fact the SA data looks very promising, the Danish data has started to show signs it may go a similar way, we’ll soon be giving over 1m boosters a day, the lack of political capital and that he’s always been a gambling opportunist makes me think Boris will go with option A. Even putting aside the hospitalisation numbers and assuming the best case models of around 2k a day turn out correct meaning it’s theoretically manageable - I don’t see how society functions with the case numbers we’re talking resulting in the numbers of people being unwell/having to isolate simultaneously…that’s the biggest risk for me.

I'm going to say they'll stick with advice only. We'll see some changes in rules around contact isolation and other things so there are still some people who can go out to work. They'll tell us that if we're naughty and fill up the hospital, they'll make us all stay home (apart from when we go to work) in January.

Routine confirmation of LFT by PCR will be dropped to preserve test capacity (and particularly turnaround times) and prioritise PCR based on medical need. Sick leave rules will change to match, but no one will know how to do this and the phone lines etc will be jammed and the registration site will crash when you attempt to report a test to get sick pay. One of the cabinet's pals will get a contract scanning LFT positive results for possible fraud. Sick pay well be handed out randomly several months later.

They'll announce hospitality VAT will go down to 5% for February (or maybe April if they're being cautious) before going up again.

Disclaimer: Pure guesswork, not backed up by watching the news etc today

 

[djembatheking]

Cabinet meeting at 2pm - what are the bets? I’m going guidance only with no further legal restrictions relying on people to naturally take precautions. They gambled opening up restrictions with Delta in the face of some bleak scenarios and the hospitalisations were lower than some of the best case models - the fact the SA data looks very promising, the Danish data has started to show signs it may go a similar way, we’ll soon be giving over 1m boosters a day, the lack of political capital and that he’s always been a gambling opportunist makes me think Boris will go with option A. Even putting aside the hospitalisation numbers and assuming the best case models of around 2k a day turn out correct meaning it’s theoretically manageable - I don’t see how society functions with the case numbers we’re talking resulting in the numbers of people being unwell/having to isolate simultaneously…that’s the biggest risk for me.

Advice only, no one will listen and do their own thing .

 

[Pogue Mahone]

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Another way to potentially save time/money if current trends continue.

 

[Wolverine]

But then this doesn't explain the 6,000 deaths a day claim and also doesn't explain why this problem of short term admissions has only come into view now when it would have been something that could easily be pre-empted and would surely have been a problem during the first two waves?

We have a separate issue with omicron compared to previous waves. Firstly we have no idea how it will play out, best estimates is for it to be "milder" clinical sequalae, because rather than a covid-naive population its been reintroduced into a part booster/part partially vaccinated/part previously infected population.

I don't honestly know how epidemiologists make some of the models they do, I don't pay too much attention to specific numbers.

What I have absolutely little doubt about is the importance of the booster programme. There are suggestions that this vaccination isn't so much a booster but essentially the third part of what might be a three-part vaccine

This is with precedence to other vaccinations. In addition to things like flu which need annual jabs adjusted sometimes to what is going around.
The booster is tolerated well, we have the logistics to administer it and gives everybody an enormous boost in neutralising antibody titres, especially relevant to elderly and those with underlying medical conditions. In addition to potentially reducing severe infection risks, catching covid, even with a vaccine-evading new variant.

And barring feeling a bit shit for a few days, despite what anti-vaxxers say it is remarkably well-tolerated.

I'm happy to see so many people coming forward for it in my vaccination clinics. Gladly given up my annual leave to be vaccinating daily till the new year.

We have logistics for mass vaccination programme. Rest of your suggestions pertaining of increasing hospital capacity to cope. More staff, more ITU beds are something NHS frontline workers are calling for ages but those are long term investments. In the interim, I want to get back to treating chronic illness better, to be monitoring my chronic kidney, diabetic, hypertensive patients, to have lower cancer waiting times (especially head and neck cancer diagnosis clinics), for my stage IV cancer patients to have beds available for post-operative care for those that are anaesthetic risks.

But with a massive covid spread, and if our beds are taken up by double pneumonia patients with suspected long clots on regular, prolonged hi-flow oxygen, all of that is not possible. Mass vaccination drive is a good way to prevent that from happening. Presently we have duty emergency GPs taking phone calls, I drew the short end and am doing that today with my colleagues jabbing, but we know the value of getting as many people jabbed as possible will bring

 

[jojojo]

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Another way to potentially save time/money if current trends continue.

Quick and cheap, and I reckon if they included a question about age they'd be pretty specific as well.

 

[Simbo]

Cabinet meeting at 2pm - what are the bets? I’m going guidance only with no further legal restrictions relying on people to naturally take precautions. They gambled opening up restrictions with Delta in the face of some bleak scenarios and the hospitalisations were lower than some of the best case models - the fact the SA data looks very promising, the Danish data has started to show signs it may go a similar way, we’ll soon be giving over 1m boosters a day, the lack of political capital and that he’s always been a gambling opportunist makes me think Boris will go with option A. Even putting aside the hospitalisation numbers and assuming the best case models of around 2k a day turn out correct meaning it’s theoretically manageable - I don’t see how society functions with the case numbers we’re talking resulting in the numbers of people being unwell/having to isolate simultaneously…that’s the biggest risk for me.

Full lockdown from 28th I reckon.

 

[Raulduke]

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No announcement today according to Harry Cole though

 

[Massive Spanner]

I’m far from being some sort of libertarian nut job but that’s a mission creep that I’m a little anxious about. Ending up doomed to spending every winter from now on with restrictions on our behaviour when hospitals get no more slammed with sick people than they have done every winter since forever, just because these sick people now happen to have covid.

I wouldn't even say it's a nut job or conspiracy theorist argument. I don't think it's any real secret that the pandemic has been amazing for the HSE in the way it's taken the usual winter media about overloaded A&Es and record levels of people on trollies completely out of the spotlight. Still, I'm assuming the government themselves know it's absolutely awful for their polling numbers so ... there's that.

I guess the difference with Covid is that it can decimate health care workers, too? Meaning much less staff than normal in winter which makes things even worse. I dunno, I'm trying to see the upside and not be pessimistic for the future!

 

[jojojo]

I'm happy to see so many people coming forward for it in my vaccination clinics. Gladly given up my annual leave to be vaccinating daily till the new year.

Just want to say my thanks to you and others who are doing this kind of work, and who are living with the impact of covid itself and it's knock-on into the rest of healthcare every day.

Thanks also for giving up your annual leave to help push the booster program forward. I'm grateful for your efforts.

 

[Dante]

Could be carnage in London looking at this

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Like minded and affluent people.

 

[choccy77]

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No announcement today according to Harry Cole though

If there is no announcement tonight, I would say that means no further restrictions before January and Government will just let businesses fend for themselves.

 

[711]

Gladly given up my annual leave to be vaccinating daily till the new year.

Thank you, brilliant.

 

[Berbaclass]

I think you either have to go full lockdown or nothing at all. Can’t see the new “measures” being enough.

 

[Godfather]

I think you either have to go full lockdown or nothing at all. Can’t see the new “measures” being enough.

Sad truth. The only wavebreaker that works is a fullblown lockdwon. We saw it in Austria.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

Good news or are they being creative with data like Pfizer?

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[Garethw]

I think you either have to go full lockdown or nothing at all. Can’t see the new “measures” being enough.

The trouble is they know that the majority of people will not adhere to another lockdown Christmas. It will also do untold damage to Johnson within his own party.

 

[groovyalbert]

I think you either have to go full lockdown or nothing at all. Can’t see the new “measures” being enough.

Agreed although what will be hard to stomach for the majority is why, when they've had to comply with so much/get 3 rounds of vaccines (minimum), they need to go back to square 1 due to the selfish imbeciles who have refused to get vaccinated/are the reason why the new variant has the capacity to impact health services so negatively.

Also this - and given the abject state of our government/the time of year - I don't think people would really comply with another lockdown at this point, at least nowhere near as many as previous ones.

 

[Bosws87]

Dreadful if it’s a proper lockdown get your booster cram them in all now for you to emerge from a month lockdown and then peak protection from active antibodies begins waining 3 weeks down the line and we go for number 4

The wave after will also be as big and as quick as this one. omicron started at 0 cases and displaced delta in a week.

that’s ignoring more people then ever taking zero notice of the rules.

Shorttermism all round

 

[Classical Mechanic]

The trouble is they know that the majority of people will not adhere to another lockdown Christmas. It will also do untold damage to Johnson within his own party.

I don't think this is true. People may not adhere strictly to it (they never did anyway) but representatives of the hospitality sector have said the bottom has fallen out of the sector with mass cancellations. That's without lockdowns. I guess that a lot of people don't want to catch Covid. Im sure plenty will see family but will be doing a lot less than usual.

 

[Drifter]

Premier League: Clubs to fulfil fixture list despite Covid-19 disruption

Premier League clubs have chosen to fulfil festive fixtures despite ongoing disruption caused by Covid-19 cases.

The league's 20 clubs met on Monday to discuss how they could deal with the challenges faced after six fixtures were postponed because of Covid-19 numbers over the weekend.
The postponement of a round of games over Christmas was a possibility.

No vote took place and so two rounds of fixtures are in place across five days from 26 December.

Got to get that revenue

 

[Brwned]

Good news or are they being creative with data like Pfizer?

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I don't think any of them are being creative with the data. They're making a relatively simple observation: another dose equals several times more antibodies, and that's really positive.

There's a couple of things they're leaving out, but they're not being shady about it.

Antibodies decline over time, and we know after these vaccines they decline at a relatively rapid rate, so they aren't a good measure of long-term protection. B-cells are the better indicator of long-term protection and very little evidence has been shared on how good the vaccines are at stimulating them, but initial evidence suggests they're worse than natural infection. On the flip side, natural infection generally produces much lower volumes of antibodies, and even though they decline at a slower rate, they fall below the threshold of protection much quicker than any of the multi-dose vaccines.

There isn't much real-world evidence on how effectively these antibodies are against the omicron variant, that's just the reality everyone's working within. The assumption that because they match up to 80% of the epitopes on the Omicron variant means they should be very good at neutralising the variant is sound, especially when the antibodies are present in much higher volumes, it's just unproven.

 

[RoadTrip]

I struggle to see how they would implement new restrictions now. It seems like a trade off, almost, of restrictions now meaning earlier impact but with lower compliance and a demoralised population, vs restrictions in the new year which may mean things get a lot worse but you have a population who might be collectively much more in a position, mentally, to achieve a higher compliance rate.

And on a more holistic note, I would be disgusted if decisions are taken based on “what would the impact on Conservative party polling and on Boris be”. The decision has to be based on what is best for the overall health of the population, balanced with impact on the economy.

 

[RoadTrip]

I don't think this is true. People may not adhere strictly to it (they never did anyway) but representatives of the hospitality sector have said the bottom has fallen out of the sector with mass cancellations. That's without lockdowns. I guess that a lot of people don't want to catch Covid. Im sure plenty will see family but will be doing a lot less than usual.

I think people cancelled bookings pre-Xmas because they wanted to spend it with families. I don’t think therefore that the same level of impact should be expected as that when considering how compliant people would be with Xmas lockdowns.

 

[11101]

And on a more holistic note, I would be disgusted if decisions are taken based on “what would the impact on Conservative party polling and on Boris be”. The decision has to be based on what is best for the overall health of the population, balanced with impact on the economy.

If it was, the restrictions would have been in place a week ago. It's all about how it looks with Boris.

He's not going to close anything now; he doesn't want his name all over the news on Christmas Day and he's definitely not going to shut anything down in the busiest shopping week of the year. I'll be surprised if he even announces anything now.

He'll start it from the 26th or 27th and it will be 'guidance' rather than law.

 

[RoadTrip]

If it was, the restrictions would have been in place a week ago. It's all about how it looks with Boris.

He's not going to close anything now; he doesn't want his name all over the news on Christmas Day and he's definitely not going to shut anything down in the busiest shopping week of the year. I'll be surprised if he even announces anything now.

He'll start it from the 26th or 27th and it will be 'guidance' rather than law.

Yeah. Isn’t it ironic that the whole “fake news” trend which they relied on for Brexit and eroded faith in scientists and experts, is now ultimately what is causing issues with doing what’s necessary for his image.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

I don't think any of them are being creative with the data. They're making a relatively simple observation: another dose equals several times more antibodies, and that's really positive.

There's a couple of things they're leaving out, but they're not being shady about it.

Antibodies decline over time, and we know after these vaccines they decline at a relatively rapid rate, so they aren't a good measure of long-term protection. B-cells are the better indicator of long-term protection and very little evidence has been shared on how good the vaccines are at stimulating them, but initial evidence suggests they're worse than natural infection. On the flip side, natural infection generally produces much lower volumes of antibodies, and even though they decline at a slower rate, they fall below the threshold of protection much quicker than any of the multi-dose vaccines.

There isn't much real-world evidence on how effectively these antibodies are against the omicron variant, that's just the reality everyone's working within. The assumption that because they match up to 80% of the epitopes on the Omicron variant means they should be very good at neutralising the variant is sound, especially when the antibodies are present in much higher volumes, it's just unproven.

Cheers.

 

[Revan]

This is the premise for a story that ends up with me gleefully posting a tragic article in the covidiots thread.

What I find hilarious is that he diagnosed himself not only that he had covid, but also what variant of covid he had.

 

[Simbo]

The trouble is they know that the majority of people will not adhere to another lockdown Christmas. It will also do untold damage to Johnson within his own party.

Johnson will be happily leaving in the next few months, that's already set in motion. This will be a wider Tory decision now.

 

[Mickeza]

Another study giving a scientific reason for why Omicron could be less pathogenic

https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news...ine-induced-immunity-but-less-likely-to-cause

Also the very early signs from London that it isn’t resulting in the number of admissions you’d have expected with Delta:

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I think they’re doing the right thing in waiting until the last moment to get as much data as necessary before deciding if a circuit breaker is necessary.

 

[roseguy64]

Just out of interest- how much of the old covid is getting to people vs this new variant?

Think it's been mentioned in here before but Delta is the most dominant and Omicron is catching up I would assume.

 

[Withnail]

Think it's been mentioned in here before but Delta is the most dominant and Omicron is catching up I would assume.

In Ireland today they said omicron has taken over and accounts for 55% of new cases. It only took two weeks.