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SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

jojojo

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Just another glimmer of hope from people looking at London hospital numbers. Hospitalisations are rising, and they're rising fast but there are other pieces in the puzzle including the background rate of covid in the city means that the numbers of patients "with covid" is currently a lot higher than those who are in there "because of covid." In terms of pressure on the hospitals the distinction isn't always the key thing, but in terms of understanding omicron it's important. I'll also throw in the fact that a lot of hospital staff are now off having tested positive for covid.

However, if you still want to see what a glimmer of hope looks like and the kids of stats the government say they're looking at hourly, here are some of the stats that get published open access daily:
 

Mickeza

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Deepthroating information to Howard Nurse.
Just another glimmer of hope from people looking at London hospital numbers. Hospitalisations are rising, and they're rising fast but there are other pieces in the puzzle including the background rate of covid in the city means that the numbers of patients "with covid" is currently a lot higher than those who are in there "because of covid." In terms of pressure on the hospitals the distinction isn't always the key thing, but in terms of understanding omicron it's important. I'll also throw in the fact that a lot of hospital staff are now off having tested positive for covid.

However, if you still want to see what a glimmer of hope looks like and the kids of stats the government say they're looking at hourly, here are some of the stats that get published open access daily:
Just reading that thread. The rate of growth in London has been slowing and cases may have already peaked…it is looking similar to Gauteng.
 

stw2022

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Early days but if it has peaked already in London then that’s astonishing
 

jojojo

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Just reading that thread. The rate of growth in London has been slowing and cases may have already peaked…it is looking similar to Gauteng.
We want to believe!

It would be a really weird outbreak if it's true. It would suggest that it circulates in a very narrow group of people (basically 20-40 year olds!) or it needs particular conditions (humidity/temp aircon?) to circulate best, which might explain the superspreader events. To me, it seems more likely that having taken out a big chunk of people - positive tests or as contacts - it's got stalled, probably by other people deciding to stay home until Christmas. Another possibility is that now the students have gone home, the cases have left London and will appear in a town near you shortly.

As I say, these are scraps of data. But they're basically the same kind of stats that are saying to some scientists - "lock down quick," and to others, "let's wait a couple of days and have another look."
 

choccy77

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Another study giving a scientific reason for why Omicron could be less pathogenic

https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news...ine-induced-immunity-but-less-likely-to-cause

Also the very early signs from London that it isn’t resulting in the number of admissions you’d have expected with Delta:



I think they’re doing the right thing in waiting until the last moment to get as much data as necessary before deciding if a circuit breaker is necessary.
Realistically, today was the deadline for a Christmas restrictions increase.

Parliament is on holiday and it takes 48 hours to recall them and vote and made legal etc.

If They are going to even do something on 28th, it has to be done tomorrow so by Thursday it is approved.

I really think nothing will happen until January when they will look at the situation then.

Boris is stalling at this point, his job is on the line and a few deaths that were gonna happen anyway, are not enough reason for him to lose the role of PM, his ego won't allow it.
 

Mickeza

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We want to believe!

It would be a really weird outbreak if it's true. It would suggest that it circulates in a very narrow group of people (basically 20-40 year olds!) or it needs particular conditions (humidity/temp aircon?) to circulate best, which might explain the superspreader events. To me, it seems more likely that having taken out a big chunk of people - positive tests or as contacts - it's got stalled, probably by other people deciding to stay home until Christmas. Another possibility is that now the students have gone home, the cases have left London and will appear in a town near you shortly.

As I say, these are scraps of data. But they're basically the same kind of stats that are saying to some scientists - "lock down quick," and to others, "let's wait a couple of days and have another look."
It’s truly amazing if it has peaked but It’s following Guateng - which had 1800 cases today - it was over 7000 last week. I’m choosing to be positive - we’ve got the scientific basis for why it would be super transmissible but also milder plus on top of that a huge amount of vaccine/natural induced immunity in London. This is also very encouraging - I don’t see how you can lock down (yet) with this data coming through - obviously it’s very early but what happened in SA is holding here!

 

golden_blunder

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Just want to say my thanks to you and others who are doing this kind of work, and who are living with the impact of covid itself and it's knock-on into the rest of healthcare every day.

Thanks also for giving up your annual leave to help push the booster program forward. I'm grateful for your efforts.
+1 @Wolverine
 
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Been a strange weekend. Saturday it felt like there was a lot of leaks talking about a lockdown being imminent and cobra meeting on Sunday. This felt very similar to the weekends before previous lockdowns were announced. However, whereas before #lockdownNow or similar things started to trend what I noticed was that #NoLockdown started trending. Then on Sunday all the lockdown talk died down.

That’s my general observation and belief is that the U.K. gov needs the majority of the public to approve before they put a lockdown, social media is the quickest and best measure.

Also Neil Ferguson, when talking about the first lockdown, spoke about the need for consent and the public to want it or accept it.
 

Beachryan

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It’s truly amazing if it has peaked but It’s following Guateng - which had 1800 cases today - it was over 7000 last week. I’m choosing to be positive - we’ve got the scientific basis for why it would be super transmissible but also milder plus on top of that a huge amount of vaccine/natural induced immunity in London. This is also very encouraging - I don’t see how you can lock down (yet) with this data coming through - obviously it’s very early but what happened in SA is holding here!

This is the best chart for my anxiety I've seen in a month. Thank you. Obviously not through the woods, but at least omicron isn't proving to be proper doomsday scenario.
 

Drifter

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That should be the first thing he thought of, thousands of people out of control, drunk . What could go wrong.
 

jojojo

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Along with incidental covid cases (people who have already have covid on admission to Hospital for some other reason) hospital acquired covid cases are on the rise as omicron takes over from delta. Hospital acquired means someone tested positive for covid 7 or more days after they were admitted. A member of my family was in hospital a couple of weeks ago and all inpatients were tested daily for covid - I guess that's standard everywhere.
 

Pogue Mahone

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We want to believe!

It would be a really weird outbreak if it's true. It would suggest that it circulates in a very narrow group of people (basically 20-40 year olds!) or it needs particular conditions (humidity/temp aircon?) to circulate best, which might explain the superspreader events. To me, it seems more likely that having taken out a big chunk of people - positive tests or as contacts - it's got stalled, probably by other people deciding to stay home until Christmas. Another possibility is that now the students have gone home, the cases have left London and will appear in a town near you shortly.

As I say, these are scraps of data. But they're basically the same kind of stats that are saying to some scientists - "lock down quick," and to others, "let's wait a couple of days and have another look."

So that narrow circulation thing seems to be happening in Denmark too. This is exactly how it started in SA too. With everyone predicting it would move up through the ages shortly, with a subsequent dramatic increase in hospitalisations/deaths. But, for some reason, that didn’t happen. At least I think it didn’t happen, right?
 

Superunknown

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Cheers for the replies, people. We went through a range of thought processes and emotions yesterday and have decided to proceed and go anyway. I think another Christmas away from her family would really, really be difficult to deal with...

You just can't tell. I'm reasonably sure there'll be some kind of lockdown in place after Christmas in England, but who knows for sure? If you have to quarantine when you get back, so be it - the schools may not even be open.

It's unlikely that anything will be announced tomorrow, and then you'll be travelling on Tuesday. I'd be more concerned about whether Belgium will impose restrictions on you when you arrive.
Cheers for this. I spent most of yesterday hitting refresh on the news/twitter/forums waiting for new information to come through. There didn't seem to be an indication of anything coming through beforehand from the UK and it looks like Belgium officials are meeting up later in the week to discuss what happens with people coming in. So, nothing will change until we're actually there, and may not change until we get back.

We're hoping that everything will be ok when we get into Belgium tomorrow, as the current rules seems to be in favour, for now. Think we might just get lucky and are able to sneak in before things change.

Yeah, difficult one, you don't want to disappoint your family, but also don't want to let your children down when you could have avoided it. Technically correct to go of course, but fair? not sure.

Could Mrs Super go on her own? Some would see that as the right thing to do and some wouldn't, and you've not really been married long which won't help.

The hard thing is dragging out making a decision, you could always toss a coin!
Thanks for this. We did mull over the idea of her just going by herself, which we would've managed. I would feel guilty about not going for support and I'm part of the family now too, so should be there. We got to around 9pm yesterday and thought "feck it" and decided not to change anything. We'll see what happens next. At least we can say that we have tried to get her back to her family for Christmas and it'll be the first time this year that she's visited her home country. That's got to be worth a shot.

Nobody knows?

My guess would be no. Returning tourists are the least of the UK's worries.

That said, is there maybe a way for you to get back early if there was a sudden announcement? There's usually at least 24 hours notice, which might be long enough for you (alone or together) to get back as long as you're prepared for it.
Thanks for the reply. Yes, that's a good point about returning visitors being the least of the problem, especially because the UK's numbers are currently higher. We have prepared ourselves for the fact that we may need to come back a little earlier if need be, and that's ok. It may be the case that I solo it and come back first and she comes back second. We'll work it out, I'm sure.

There won't be restrictions before Christmas because Boris is too much of a cultural traditionalist for that. There likely won't even be official news about it until Boxing Day at the earliest because he won't want it to be in the headlines on the 25th.

So new rules are probably going to start on the 28th or 29th.

But I'm not sure you'll be necessarily need to quarantine on the way back. That only makes sense if the country you're coming from has a higher prevalence than the country you're going to. And the UK is already one of the global hotspots. A Covid Passport or negative test should likely be enough to get you out and about again on your return.

I think you'll end up being right about the timings. But the actual restrictions probably won't impact your job either way. If it were me, I'd chance it. Happy wife happy life.
Cheers for this. You had it spot on with Johnson not changing this before Christmas. He's frustratingly predictable in that way. You've made a great point about the need/no need for quarantine. We'll be doing the tests anyway needed for travel, so hopefully that will suffice. I'm prepared for something to happen after Christmas, so it looks like it's a case of just checking the news and keeping a close eye on things.

The wife is delighted that we're going, so you're definitely right about that. :lol:

The government is already reducing border restrictions and Sajid Javid admitted the other day Omicron is everywhere so no longer any point trying to keep it out.

I think there is a very small chance of you having to quarantine on your return. I think your bigger risk is not being allowed in to Belgium, but there's only another couple of days left to find out about that.
Thanks for this. There's some talk about Belgium's government meeting at some point this week (after we arrive) to talk about measures. It looks like we'll be ok to get in, as I doubt that they'll penalise travellers retrospectively.
 

Pexbo

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Hi Pexbo,

Please accept my apologies for the direct approach.

I use the sars cov2 thread as a huge source of info. I live alone, and don't use social media at all (I don't consider selective global forums to be social media)

Obviously I chat with my friends and family about Covid etc., and often I'm able to add a bit more insight to the discussion as a direct result of info I've obtained from the caf.

As such, I was hoping you'd pass my genuine and sincere thanks to the following posters (not exhaustive and not in order):

pogue Mahone
jojojo
wolverine
golden blunder
wibble
arruda
Pexbo

There are many many more who contribute to the threads I rely on, and I'm embarrassed that I can't name them all off the top of my head. You are all so valuable

The way you guys have worked with conspiracists and deniers is amazing - it's the right way to go, but must be frustrating as hell.

Thanks again!

Ian
@Pogue Mahone
@jojojo
@Wolverine
@golden_blunder
@Wibble
@Arruda

A nice message from a newbie. I particularly like how they appended my name to the bottom of the list before they asked me to pass it on. :lol: Nice words all the same which I’m pleased to pass on.
 

decorativeed

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We have a separate issue with omicron compared to previous waves. Firstly we have no idea how it will play out, best estimates is for it to be "milder" clinical sequalae, because rather than a covid-naive population its been reintroduced into a part booster/part partially vaccinated/part previously infected population.

I don't honestly know how epidemiologists make some of the models they do, I don't pay too much attention to specific numbers.

What I have absolutely little doubt about is the importance of the booster programme. There are suggestions that this vaccination isn't so much a booster but essentially the third part of what might be a three-part vaccine

This is with precedence to other vaccinations. In addition to things like flu which need annual jabs adjusted sometimes to what is going around.
The booster is tolerated well, we have the logistics to administer it and gives everybody an enormous boost in neutralising antibody titres, especially relevant to elderly and those with underlying medical conditions. In addition to potentially reducing severe infection risks, catching covid, even with a vaccine-evading new variant.

And barring feeling a bit shit for a few days, despite what anti-vaxxers say it is remarkably well-tolerated.

I'm happy to see so many people coming forward for it in my vaccination clinics. Gladly given up my annual leave to be vaccinating daily till the new year.

We have logistics for mass vaccination programme. Rest of your suggestions pertaining of increasing hospital capacity to cope. More staff, more ITU beds are something NHS frontline workers are calling for ages but those are long term investments. In the interim, I want to get back to treating chronic illness better, to be monitoring my chronic kidney, diabetic, hypertensive patients, to have lower cancer waiting times (especially head and neck cancer diagnosis clinics), for my stage IV cancer patients to have beds available for post-operative care for those that are anaesthetic risks.

But with a massive covid spread, and if our beds are taken up by double pneumonia patients with suspected long clots on regular, prolonged hi-flow oxygen, all of that is not possible. Mass vaccination drive is a good way to prevent that from happening. Presently we have duty emergency GPs taking phone calls, I drew the short end and am doing that today with my colleagues jabbing, but we know the value of getting as many people jabbed as possible will bring
Hats off to you and others on the front lines of this. I honestly don't know how you do it.
 

Simbo

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Another study giving a scientific reason for why Omicron could be less pathogenic

https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news...ine-induced-immunity-but-less-likely-to-cause

Also the very early signs from London that it isn’t resulting in the number of admissions you’d have expected with Delta:



I think they’re doing the right thing in waiting until the last moment to get as much data as necessary before deciding if a circuit breaker is necessary.
I agree they are likely waiting to see the effect on hospital admissions, that has always been the driving force behind lockdown decisions, all about managing that capacity.

What's the normal lag time between infection and serious symptoms? Used to be 10 days but dunno if that's changed. Wednesday will be decision day, 1 week since Omicron numbers began spiking, but with 90k cases/day sustained over the lowest usual days for reported cases, sat/sun/mon, and those mainly being in London... Would not shock me to see 200k this Wed, the decision may be made for them.
 

Withnail

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Oh sorry. I was speaking globally.
I didn't assume you also happened to be Irish, I was just giving you the information I had. The inference being that if it's not dominant yet it won't be very long but I can't find anything online to say what the global figure is.
 
Last edited:

Wibble

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We want to believe!

It would be a really weird outbreak if it's true. It would suggest that it circulates in a very narrow group of people (basically 20-40 year olds!) or it needs particular conditions (humidity/temp aircon?) to circulate best, which might explain the superspreader events. To me, it seems more likely that having taken out a big chunk of people - positive tests or as contacts - it's got stalled, probably by other people deciding to stay home until Christmas. Another possibility is that now the students have gone home, the cases have left London and will appear in a town near you shortly.

As I say, these are scraps of data. But they're basically the same kind of stats that are saying to some scientists - "lock down quick," and to others, "let's wait a couple of days and have another look."
I'm wondering if it is spreading far more variably than previous variants due to it being so infectious because masks, distancing and boosters are on average more common with older people and mass social events, often without masks, distancing or boosters is essentially a younger person's activity.

I know we have stopped going to most pubs and only use ones where we can sit outside and are tending more towards staying at home than we were a few weeks ago even though we got a third shot a week ago.
 

Arruda

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Thank you @subotai

Ages since I posted. Barely read news about Covid anymore (except for the local stuff as my work requires) and apart from the very beggining of the pandemic I too have relied mostly on this thread to keep up with it on a global level.
 

roseguy64

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I didn't assume you also happened to be Irish, I was just giving you the information I had. The inference being that if it's not dominant yet it won't be very long but I can't find anything online to say what the global figure is.
Oh I get you. Understood completely.
 

Shakesy

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Early days but if it has peaked already in London then that’s astonishing
Astonishing indeed...

Interesting article extract about Gauteng's flattening:

What do you think it is?
The options that I have been thinking about — there’s five of them. They’re non mutually exclusive. So to go through …
First, there’s the simple limit to testing capacity. As things increase, our testing capacity doesn’t increase as fast, and so we’re missing more and more cases. That can give you a distorted picture — it could look like a plateau in Gauteng, but you could imagine it’s really a much higher crest.

Like the top of a mountain has been chopped off by bad testing.
I also bet we can expect a lot more underreporting of Omicron, compared to previous wave, because it’s more mild, either through existing immunity or through actual reduction of intrinsic severity. And if, on average, you’ve reduced the severity of cases, there’d be a lot of people that don’t bother to come to the hospital or to get tested. And so as a rough guess, you might go from like one in ten cases reported in South Africa to one in 20 or even one in 30 cases — that wouldn’t seem unreasonable to me. And that makes it so that at the same caseload of Delta versus Omicron you could actually have three times as many infections with Omicron.
We could also have a change in generation interval. If we have Omicron kind of doubling at this very fast two- or three-day rate, you don’t actually have to have Rt be three. You could have actually just made the whole thing faster without having the number of secondary
infections being much higher. And we don’t have no way of knowing that at this moment.
The last two are, it might not be that the entire population is susceptible to Omicron. Maybe half the population is susceptible. And then, finally, I think there’s a network effect — that as things kind of percolate through the community, you can imagine those transmission chains circling back on themselves and hitting someone that has already been exposed.
 

stw2022

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Is it possible the omicron is the (current) evolutionary winning strain because it’s so successful in spreading amongst the young? Previous strains increasingly came up against walls of vaccination or unhelpful social behaviours more likely practiced by older generations.

The fact it MIGHT end up in less hospitalisation and evade the vaccines to some degree might be a good thing if it helps keep this strain alive at low levels in the community negating any evolutionary to evolve further
 

Sparky Rhiwabon

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Is it possible the omicron is the (current) evolutionary winning strain because it’s so successful in spreading amongst the young? Previous strains increasingly came up against walls of vaccination or unhelpful social behaviours more likely practiced by older generations.

The fact it MIGHT end up in less hospitalisation and evade the vaccines to some degree might be a good thing if it helps keep this strain alive at low levels in the community negating any evolutionary to evolve further
Isn’t it just that this is what is causing it to be spread mainly amongst the young?
 

Pogue Mahone

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I'm wondering if it is spreading far more variably than previous variants due to it being so infectious because masks, distancing and boosters are on average more common with older people and mass social events, often without masks, distancing or boosters is essentially a younger person's activity.

I know we have stopped going to most pubs and only use ones where we can sit outside and are tending more towards staying at home than we were a few weeks ago even though we got a third shot a week ago.
Definitely not the case in London. Now or ever. It’s seething with middle aged folk acting like teenagers.
 

stw2022

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Isn’t it just that this is what is causing it to be spread mainly amongst the young?
Maybe but is there something aside from vaccines or social behaviours that makes young people more susceptible? Maybe because it’s a milder, cold-like virus stronger younger immune systems don’t attack it as virulently as they would/have stronger strains allowing it to survive more and spread so fast initially
 

Wibble

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Definitely not the case in London. Now or ever. It’s seething with middle aged folk acting like teenagers.
Really? How embarrasing for them. Here the high density mass events have a huge skew to the under 30's in the run up to Christmas. Music events vary more but they seem to be being mostly cancelled and/or postponed. Our Christmas party also got cancelled although I wasn't going in any case. Too big a risk especially as we are being very careful not to expose our son to covid while he is back. Glad we did after a covid outbreak in his squad that he seems to have dodged.
 

Wibble

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He's already back with you? That's great news, how long is it since you last saw him? I bet that was an emotional reunion. I hope you have a lovely Christmas together.
He got back on the 13th after 101 weeks away. Not that we were counting ;)

Amazingly we all managed not to blub but it was close although I am tearing up slightly now for some reason. Loving having him home although low key so far as he is in a training camp for the national team until Christmas Eve, then flies back to Uni on the 3rd of Jan.
 

Volumiza

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He got back on the 13th after 101 weeks away. Not that we were counting ;)

Amazingly we all managed not to blub but it was close. Loving having him home although low key so far as he is in a training camp for the national team until Christmas Eve, then flies back to Uni on the 3rd of Jan.
That's great, I'm really happy for you guys. It must have been a very hard couple of years. Enjoy.
 

Wibble

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That's great, I'm really happy for you guys. It must have been a very hard couple of years. Enjoy.
It was in many ways, covid, work and him being away. However, he was so good at staying in touch and was also having a great time, despite the global shit show, that it was bearable. If we hadn't got him home this Christmas it would have been very hard though, and we weren't convinced that we would see him until he was in the air on the final flight.