Sad truth. The only wavebreaker that works is a fullblown lockdwon. We saw it in Austria.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Sad truth. The only wavebreaker that works is a fullblown lockdwon. We saw it in Austria.
Good news or are they being creative with data like Pfizer?
The trouble is they know that the majority of people will not adhere to another lockdown Christmas. It will also do untold damage to Johnson within his own party.
Agreed although what will be hard to stomach for the majority is why, when they've had to comply with so much/get 3 rounds of vaccines (minimum), they need to go back to square 1 due to the selfish imbeciles who have refused to get vaccinated/are the reason why the new variant has the capacity to impact health services so negatively.
Also this - and given the abject state of our government/the time of year - I don't think people would really comply with another lockdown at this point, at least nowhere near as many as previous ones.
Dreadful if it’s a proper lockdown get your booster cram them in all now for you to emerge from a month lockdown and then peak protection from active antibodies begins waining 3 weeks down the line and we go for number 4
The wave after will also be as big and as quick as this one. omicron started at 0 cases and displaced delta in a week.
that’s ignoring more people then ever taking zero notice of the rules.
Shorttermism all round
The wave after will also be as big and as quick as this one. omicron started at 0 cases and displaced delta in a week.
that’s ignoring more people then ever taking zero notice of the rules.
Shorttermism all round
I don't think this is true. People may not adhere strictly to it (they never did anyway) but representatives of the hospitality sector have said the bottom has fallen out of the sector with mass cancellations. That's without lockdowns. I guess that a lot of people don't want to catch Covid. Im sure plenty will see family but will be doing a lot less than usual.
Premier League: Clubs to fulfil fixture list despite Covid-19 disruption
Got to get that revenue
Got to get that revenue
I don't think any of them are being creative with the data. They're making a relatively simple observation: another dose equals several times more antibodies, and that's really positive.
There's a couple of things they're leaving out, but they're not being shady about it.
Antibodies decline over time, and we know after these vaccines they decline at a relatively rapid rate, so they aren't a good measure of long-term protection. B-cells are the better indicator of long-term protection and very little evidence has been shared on how good the vaccines are at stimulating them, but initial evidence suggests they're worse than natural infection. On the flip side, natural infection generally produces much lower volumes of antibodies, and even though they decline at a slower rate, they fall below the threshold of protection much quicker than any of the multi-dose vaccines.
There isn't much real-world evidence on how effectively these antibodies are against the omicron variant, that's just the reality everyone's working within. The assumption that because they match up to 80% of the epitopes on the Omicron variant means they should be very good at neutralising the variant is sound, especially when the antibodies are present in much higher volumes, it's just unproven.
I struggle to see how they would implement new restrictions now. It seems like a trade off, almost, of restrictions now meaning earlier impact but with lower compliance and a demoralised population, vs restrictions in the new year which may mean things get a lot worse but you have a population who might be collectively much more in a position, mentally, to achieve a higher compliance rate.
And on a more holistic note, I would be disgusted if decisions are taken based on “what would the impact on Conservative party polling and on Boris be”. The decision has to be based on what is best for the overall health of the population, balanced with impact on the economy.
And on a more holistic note, I would be disgusted if decisions are taken based on “what would the impact on Conservative party polling and on Boris be”. The decision has to be based on what is best for the overall health of the population, balanced with impact on the economy.
I think people cancelled bookings pre-Xmas because they wanted to spend it with families. I don’t think therefore that the same level of impact should be expected as that when considering how compliant people would be with Xmas lockdowns.
If it was, the restrictions would have been in place a week ago. It's all about how it looks with Boris.
He's not going to close anything now; he doesn't want his name all over the news on Christmas Day and he's definitely not going to shut anything down in the busiest shopping week of the year. I'll be surprised if he even announces anything now.
He'll start it from the 26th or 27th and it will be 'guidance' rather than law.
Yeah. Isn’t it ironic that the whole “fake news” trend which they relied on for Brexit and eroded faith in scientists and experts, is now ultimately what is causing issues with doing what’s necessary for his image.
Cheers.
What I find hilarious is that he diagnosed himself not only that he had covid, but also what variant of covid he had.
Johnson will be happily leaving in the next few months, that's already set in motion. This will be a wider Tory decision now.
Another study giving a scientific reason for why Omicron could be less pathogenic
https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news...ine-induced-immunity-but-less-likely-to-cause
Also the very early signs from London that it isn’t resulting in the number of admissions you’d have expected with Delta:
I think they’re doing the right thing in waiting until the last moment to get as much data as necessary before deciding if a circuit breaker is necessary.
https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news...ine-induced-immunity-but-less-likely-to-cause
Also the very early signs from London that it isn’t resulting in the number of admissions you’d have expected with Delta:
I think they’re doing the right thing in waiting until the last moment to get as much data as necessary before deciding if a circuit breaker is necessary.
Think it's been mentioned in here before but Delta is the most dominant and Omicron is catching up I would assume.
In Ireland today they said omicron has taken over and accounts for 55% of new cases. It only took two weeks.
Just another glimmer of hope from people looking at London hospital numbers. Hospitalisations are rising, and they're rising fast but there are other pieces in the puzzle including the background rate of covid in the city means that the numbers of patients "with covid" is currently a lot higher than those who are in there "because of covid." In terms of pressure on the hospitals the distinction isn't always the key thing, but in terms of understanding omicron it's important. I'll also throw in the fact that a lot of hospital staff are now off having tested positive for covid.
However, if you still want to see what a glimmer of hope looks like and the kids of stats the government say they're looking at hourly, here are some of the stats that get published open access daily:
However, if you still want to see what a glimmer of hope looks like and the kids of stats the government say they're looking at hourly, here are some of the stats that get published open access daily:
Just reading that thread. The rate of growth in London has been slowing and cases may have already peaked…it is looking similar to Gauteng.
London is now reckoned to be around 80% omicron. Across the UK as a whole it's now around 50%.
Early days but if it has peaked already in London then that’s astonishing
We want to believe!
It would be a really weird outbreak if it's true. It would suggest that it circulates in a very narrow group of people (basically 20-40 year olds!) or it needs particular conditions (humidity/temp aircon?) to circulate best, which might explain the superspreader events. To me, it seems more likely that having taken out a big chunk of people - positive tests or as contacts - it's got stalled, probably by other people deciding to stay home until Christmas. Another possibility is that now the students have gone home, the cases have left London and will appear in a town near you shortly.
As I say, these are scraps of data. But they're basically the same kind of stats that are saying to some scientists - "lock down quick," and to others, "let's wait a couple of days and have another look."
I wouldn't take it too seriously until we see what happens at Christmas, but I'm still firmly on Team Boosters side on cases and hospitalisations.
Realistically, today was the deadline for a Christmas restrictions increase.
Parliament is on holiday and it takes 48 hours to recall them and vote and made legal etc.
If They are going to even do something on 28th, it has to be done tomorrow so by Thursday it is approved.
I really think nothing will happen until January when they will look at the situation then.
Boris is stalling at this point, his job is on the line and a few deaths that were gonna happen anyway, are not enough reason for him to lose the role of PM, his ego won't allow it.
It’s truly amazing if it has peaked but It’s following Guateng - which had 1800 cases today - it was over 7000 last week. I’m choosing to be positive - we’ve got the scientific basis for why it would be super transmissible but also milder plus on top of that a huge amount of vaccine/natural induced immunity in London. This is also very encouraging - I don’t see how you can lock down (yet) with this data coming through - obviously it’s very early but what happened in SA is holding here!
Been a strange weekend. Saturday it felt like there was a lot of leaks talking about a lockdown being imminent and cobra meeting on Sunday. This felt very similar to the weekends before previous lockdowns were announced. However, whereas before #lockdownNow or similar things started to trend what I noticed was that #NoLockdown started trending. Then on Sunday all the lockdown talk died down.
That’s my general observation and belief is that the U.K. gov needs the majority of the public to approve before they put a lockdown, social media is the quickest and best measure.
Also Neil Ferguson, when talking about the first lockdown, spoke about the need for consent and the public to want it or accept it.
That’s my general observation and belief is that the U.K. gov needs the majority of the public to approve before they put a lockdown, social media is the quickest and best measure.
Also Neil Ferguson, when talking about the first lockdown, spoke about the need for consent and the public to want it or accept it.
This is the best chart for my anxiety I've seen in a month. Thank you. Obviously not through the woods, but at least omicron isn't proving to be proper doomsday scenario.
Khan has tonight finally cancelled the Trafalgar Square NYE celebrations.
That should be the first thing he thought of, thousands of people out of control, drunk . What could go wrong.
Along with incidental covid cases (people who have already have covid on admission to Hospital for some other reason) hospital acquired covid cases are on the rise as omicron takes over from delta. Hospital acquired means someone tested positive for covid 7 or more days after they were admitted. A member of my family was in hospital a couple of weeks ago and all inpatients were tested daily for covid - I guess that's standard everywhere.
So that narrow circulation thing seems to be happening in Denmark too. This is exactly how it started in SA too. With everyone predicting it would move up through the ages shortly, with a subsequent dramatic increase in hospitalisations/deaths. But, for some reason, that didn’t happen. At least I think it didn’t happen, right?
Cheers for the replies, people. We went through a range of thought processes and emotions yesterday and have decided to proceed and go anyway. I think another Christmas away from her family would really, really be difficult to deal with...
Cheers for this. I spent most of yesterday hitting refresh on the news/twitter/forums waiting for new information to come through. There didn't seem to be an indication of anything coming through beforehand from the UK and it looks like Belgium officials are meeting up later in the week to discuss what happens with people coming in. So, nothing will change until we're actually there, and may not change until we get back.
We're hoping that everything will be ok when we get into Belgium tomorrow, as the current rules seems to be in favour, for now. Think we might just get lucky and are able to sneak in before things change.
Thanks for this. We did mull over the idea of her just going by herself, which we would've managed. I would feel guilty about not going for support and I'm part of the family now too, so should be there. We got to around 9pm yesterday and thought "feck it" and decided not to change anything. We'll see what happens next. At least we can say that we have tried to get her back to her family for Christmas and it'll be the first time this year that she's visited her home country. That's got to be worth a shot.
Thanks for the reply. Yes, that's a good point about returning visitors being the least of the problem, especially because the UK's numbers are currently higher. We have prepared ourselves for the fact that we may need to come back a little earlier if need be, and that's ok. It may be the case that I solo it and come back first and she comes back second. We'll work it out, I'm sure.
Cheers for this. You had it spot on with Johnson not changing this before Christmas. He's frustratingly predictable in that way. You've made a great point about the need/no need for quarantine. We'll be doing the tests anyway needed for travel, so hopefully that will suffice. I'm prepared for something to happen after Christmas, so it looks like it's a case of just checking the news and keeping a close eye on things.
The wife is delighted that we're going, so you're definitely right about that.
Thanks for this. There's some talk about Belgium's government meeting at some point this week (after we arrive) to talk about measures. It looks like we'll be ok to get in, as I doubt that they'll penalise travellers retrospectively.
Cheers for this. I spent most of yesterday hitting refresh on the news/twitter/forums waiting for new information to come through. There didn't seem to be an indication of anything coming through beforehand from the UK and it looks like Belgium officials are meeting up later in the week to discuss what happens with people coming in. So, nothing will change until we're actually there, and may not change until we get back.
We're hoping that everything will be ok when we get into Belgium tomorrow, as the current rules seems to be in favour, for now. Think we might just get lucky and are able to sneak in before things change.
Thanks for this. We did mull over the idea of her just going by herself, which we would've managed. I would feel guilty about not going for support and I'm part of the family now too, so should be there. We got to around 9pm yesterday and thought "feck it" and decided not to change anything. We'll see what happens next. At least we can say that we have tried to get her back to her family for Christmas and it'll be the first time this year that she's visited her home country. That's got to be worth a shot.
Thanks for the reply. Yes, that's a good point about returning visitors being the least of the problem, especially because the UK's numbers are currently higher. We have prepared ourselves for the fact that we may need to come back a little earlier if need be, and that's ok. It may be the case that I solo it and come back first and she comes back second. We'll work it out, I'm sure.
Cheers for this. You had it spot on with Johnson not changing this before Christmas. He's frustratingly predictable in that way. You've made a great point about the need/no need for quarantine. We'll be doing the tests anyway needed for travel, so hopefully that will suffice. I'm prepared for something to happen after Christmas, so it looks like it's a case of just checking the news and keeping a close eye on things.
The wife is delighted that we're going, so you're definitely right about that.
Thanks for this. There's some talk about Belgium's government meeting at some point this week (after we arrive) to talk about measures. It looks like we'll be ok to get in, as I doubt that they'll penalise travellers retrospectively.
@Pogue Mahone
@jojojo
@Wolverine
@golden_blunder
@Wibble
@Arruda
A nice message from a newbie. I particularly like how they appended my name to the bottom of the list before they asked me to pass it on.
Nice words all the same which I’m pleased to pass on.Hats off to you and others on the front lines of this. I honestly don't know how you do it.
I agree they are likely waiting to see the effect on hospital admissions, that has always been the driving force behind lockdown decisions, all about managing that capacity.
What's the normal lag time between infection and serious symptoms? Used to be 10 days but dunno if that's changed. Wednesday will be decision day, 1 week since Omicron numbers began spiking, but with 90k cases/day sustained over the lowest usual days for reported cases, sat/sun/mon, and those mainly being in London... Would not shock me to see 200k this Wed, the decision may be made for them.
Oh sorry. I was speaking globally.
Same as above.
I didn't assume you also happened to be Irish, I was just giving you the information I had. The inference being that if it's not dominant yet it won't be very long but I can't find anything online to say what the global figure is.
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