SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[JP77]

After all the madness over the last few days with work and trying to get shopping done it got even crazier today when I got home from shopping.

Nan passed away about three weeks ago. Her funeral is next week on Wednesday but been told I won't be able to go as it's only immiediete family which I've been told is limited to 5 people. Absolutely shit situation but trying to take myself out of the situation from a personal point of view, I find it a bit strange that they're limiting some funerals, is this a government decision? If so it all seems a bit strange considering we are still sending people into work surrounded by others, people are going shopping in absolute hoards etc. I'd have thought with something as sensitive as funerals they would have put out advice for elderly or people to possibly limit but to give them a choice.

With that, the way the shops were today and the huge conference from Boris and co it's all been a bit overwhelming. The missus actually had a few years after the press conference finished. It's crazy to think that two weeks ago it was all a bit "ah the standard cold is worst than this virus" and now a week or two later we're in something that's almost like a movie. It's all a bit surreal and has started to hit me a bit more the last few days.

Like I said to the missus too, we are going to.sleep reading about the virus and watching stuff about it. Waking up to it. Going all day on and off looking and reading about it. Facebook, news, TV, social media, friends, family...you can't escape it. I've told the missus to lay off Facebook and stuff but equally it's bloody hard to not have a look every half hour as to what's happening.

 

[Munkehboi]

Concerning updates from the NHS recently:

-The PHE guidance is now that we use surgical masks even in confirmed cases
-We are already starting to get inpatient transmission
-We are no longer contact tracing....which means we're seeing patients who develop covid....and then not getting tested ourselves. So we're either self isolating for 14 days if we get symptoms or working and potentially continuing to spread
-Some hospitals in London are already starting to use theatres for intensive care space
-I have old professors/ colleagues who bloody specialise in epidemiology, outbreak control, public health etc etc. Until very recently, none of them were contacted and almost nobody of real significance in the field was really contacted, even though we have quite a few experts in the UK. Really concerning approach from the UK.
-While the consensus from the aforementioned colleagues seems to be that Prof Whitty is genuinely excellent, the opinion of Prof Vallance is significantly less glowing.
-People are stealing from the NHS. Whether its staff members or visitors (likely a mixture of both), alcohol gel, gloves, masks, wipes are all disappearing en masse.
-It feels like we're in the calm before the storm. At least in many London hospitals, we have stopped essentially all elective services. We are rewriting protocols.

There's definitely more but I'm a bit tired right now if I'm honest.

Some reading for those really interested:

The excellent Ferguson paper which supposedly brought about the change in tack from the UK and US.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

WHO report on China's response (still working my way through):

https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...na-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

People need to wise up I think. I would still advocate against hysteria and I think the panic buying is ridiculous but people living their lives completely as normal is mind boggling to me.

I've just finished a long day on my ward and one of my patients developed a cough and spiked a temperature and is not responding to paracetamol. About 2 hours ago we were told that the patient had to be isolated and swabbed for covid and site-cordinator feels it is likely. Have not been told not work, self isolate or anything else. Annoyingly a resus nurse came on as I was leaving to give some updated instructions so I stayed behind to listen.

In the event of a suspected covid patient having a cardiac arrest we are to go in with full PPE, fitted mask, long gowns and gloves. She assumed we had no suspected patients until we corrected her. We also advised that none of the night staff have had fittings for masks and we have NONE of the needed PPE on the ward other than gloves. Our patient does not have a Do Not Attempt Resuscitation order in place so she said it's upto us if we go in or not if it happens. Needless to say the night team are bleeping the medical reg to get that DNAR in place!

It's been hell on our ward, half the staff are self isolating and the rest are being pulled to cover covid areas as NO bank staff wants to pick up those shifts. Unsurprising. Our managment team are literally telling us to get on with it, its a pandemic, what do you expect? Can't wait for tomorrow (sarcasm). Luckily we are now not taking anymore admissions so at least if I do have it I wont give to new patients. Also lucky I live by myself but did have to phone Mum and tell her I won't be having dinner with her on Mothering Sunday.

 

[Munkehboi]

After all the madness over the last few days with work and trying to get shopping done it got even crazier today when I got home from shopping.

Nan passed away about three weeks ago. Her funeral is next week on Wednesday but been told I won't be able to go as it's only immiediete family which I've been told is limited to 5 people. Absolutely shit situation but trying to take myself out of the situation from a personal point of view, I find it a bit strange that they're limiting some funerals, is this a government decision? If so it all seems a bit strange considering we are still sending people into work surrounded by others, people are going shopping in absolute hoards etc. I'd have thought with something as sensitive as funerals they would have put out advice for elderly or people to possibly limit but to give them a choice.

With that, the way the shops were today and the huge conference from Boris and co it's all been a bit overwhelming. The missus actually had a few years after the press conference finished. It's crazy to think that two weeks ago it was all a bit "ah the standard cold is worst than this virus" and now a week or two later we're in something that's almost like a movie. It's all a bit surreal and has started to hit me a bit more the last few days.

Like I said to the missus too, we are going to.sleep reading about the virus and watching stuff about it. Waking up to it. Going all day on and off looking and reading about it. Facebook, news, TV, social media, friends, family...you can't escape it. I've told the missus to lay off Facebook and stuff but equally it's bloody hard to not have a look every half hour as to what's happening.

Sorry to hear this, that is awful and so so shit for you and your family.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

A lockdown from day one would have been a lockdown about 2 months ago. It was never into question, even in the best of chances, it wouldn't have been possible, even the Chinese couldn't do that.

What you see in the UK, however, is the exact opposite, not a half-sensible middle ground. News anchors in Portugal are shocked that only today were classes suspended.

Boris Johnson is now no different than that famous Iraqi information minister.

The UK school shutdown happened pretty much in same timeframe, or before in some cases, as Germany, France, Holland and Spain when measured against progress of cases and the spread of the disease.

 

[SteveJ]

Went to the Etihad this past week. Not a single City supporter left. I can't believe that people are so selfish.

 

[17 Van der Gouw]

Went to the Etihad this past week. Not a single City supporter left. I can't believe that people are so selfish.

It was nice of them to get ahead of the curve early and play their games behind closed doors.

 

[horsechoker]

Went to the Etihad this past week. Not a single City supporter left. I can't believe that people are so selfish.

Great, now there's a plastic shortage too!

 

[BIGbadBOO4]

All the NHS staff who have been sold out by the government by 10 years of austerity. And then sold short on the coronavirus by a retroactive moronic leadership, every single one of them who are on the front fighting this without proper safety equipment will go down in memory for me. Absolute heroes the lot of them and we should never forget what they are doing for us.

 

[SteveJ]

Great, now there's a plastic shortage too!

*applauds*

 

[Arruda]

The UK school shutdown happened pretty much in same timeframe, or before in some cases, as Germany, France, Holland and Spain when measured against progress of cases and the spread of the disease.

I stand corrected on that particular point. Must have been distracted and the anchor I saw was maybe talking about another country.

 

[SteveJ]

All the NHS staff who have been sold out by the government by 10 years of austerity. And then sold short on the coronavirus by a retroactive moronic leadership, every single one of them who are on the front fighting this without proper safety equipment will go down in memory for me. Absolute heroes the lot of them and we should never forget what they are doing for us.

"There's no magic money tree."

 

[jymufc20]

I was talking to a client in Hong Kong this morning, and she says they are starting to get back to normality a little bit now. She said that the supermarket shelf stripping went on for a month though.

I'm at my local Chinese tonight, and they told me that the schools are starting to reopen in China.

A lot of Chinese people from Europe are going back to China, for safety. They are being quarantined for 2 weeks before they can properly enter the country.

Maybe 3 months and things can start to get back to normal.

I think your putting a little bit too much faith into us doing things right.

 

[Sarni]

I was talking to a client in Hong Kong this morning, and she says they are starting to get back to normality a little bit now. She said that the supermarket shelf stripping went on for a month though.

I'm at my local Chinese tonight, and they told me that the schools are starting to reopen in China.

A lot of Chinese people from Europe are going back to China, for safety. They are being quarantined for 2 weeks before they can properly enter the country.

Maybe 3 months and things can start to get back to normal.

Unfortunately we’ve gone too far. China put restrictions in place much earlier and they were much tighter too, and mostly focused around one area too which is easier to contain.

 

[BeforeKeanetherewasRobson]

Even handshakes have been absolutely banned for the past three weeks. In the C of E Diocese of Leeds at any rate. But then we never really go for Holy Hugging

Baptists, and old. It's Hug Central

 

[Sarni]

My recommendation for everyone here is to find sustainable lifestyle that you will be able to live for the next few months and not go crazy. So much of my Facebook wall is polluted with people bragging about staying at home for the last 7 days and labeling everyone who goes out for whatever reason, even in secluded areas, idiots and ‘murderers’. I know those people are actually not doing anyone any favors staying at home, contrary to what they think, because they won’t be able to keep it up for the amount of time that is likely to be needed. Go for a bike, go for a run, go for a walk, avoid crowds, read some books, watch some films. There’s still so much to do.

Of course that all goes out the window if you don’t have income anymore.

 

[Pexbo]

I was talking to a client in Hong Kong this morning, and she says they are starting to get back to normality a little bit now. She said that the supermarket shelf stripping went on for a month though.

I'm at my local Chinese tonight, and they told me that the schools are starting to reopen in China.

A lot of Chinese people from Europe are going back to China, for safety. They are being quarantined for 2 weeks before they can properly enter the country.

Maybe 3 months and things can start to get back to normal.

I think the only way it’s possible that we are anywhere near returning to something that resembles normal in 3 months time is if they get this antibody testing kit rolled out to the masses and people who are immune return to work while people who are at risk stay at home. That will limit the spread of the virus much quicker.

 

[Revaulx]

Baptists, and old. It's Hug Central

Ah! Hope they stay OK

 

[Camilo]

A lockdown from day one would have been a lockdown about 2 months ago. It was never into question, even in the best of chances, it wouldn't have been possible, even the Chinese couldn't do that.

What you see in the UK, however, is the exact opposite, not a half-sensible middle ground. News anchors in Portugal are shocked that only today were classes suspended.

Boris Johnson is now no different than that famous Iraqi information minister.

Portuguese news anchors?!?! Jesus. lf there's one opinion I've always valued above all others its that of Portuguese news channels. We should have listened.

Or maybe we shouldn't be such panic merchants.

 

[utdalltheway]

Mother and father in law went to church last Sunday. They do this thing where they take a minute to hug everyone near them each service and despite clear advice on how to engage with other people, still did it this week. Idiots

I told them not to bother asking to come to my house to see kids... if they can't be arsed to avoid dozens of people, don't see why me/my family should increase our risk.

Sure they'll be ok though, their faith will beat Covid 19

tbh my comment was related to on mass instead of en masse. Poor attempt, I'll admit.

My gang went to church last Saturday too. I doubt they'll be silly enough to go this week.

 

[Hugh Jass]

A lockdown from day one would have been a lockdown about 2 months ago. It was never into question, even in the best of chances, it wouldn't have been possible, even the Chinese couldn't do that.

What you see in the UK, however, is the exact opposite, not a half-sensible middle ground. News anchors in Portugal are shocked that only today were classes suspended.

Boris Johnson is now no different than that famous Iraqi information minister.

B Johnson is in trouble once this crisis subsides, however long that may be. His terrible choices are going to cost many live in the UK.

 

[Prometheus]

Now the Lancet medical journal is saying the Chinese doctors and scientists did inform them and even wrote in the journal about this new virus in January this year. At that time they only knew how serious it was and what was the symptoms and how they are trying to isolate it. This was given to the British government by the Journal yet the government did not seem fit to act. In fact the government's policy was to get as many people infected and have a herd mentality. The Chinese and later the Italians were saying this is the wrong approach. The WHO asked for 675M USD to declare a pandemic and was refused.
The whole World has failed and not just China. Others are more culpable because from what happened in China they were able to see beforehand exactly what was going to happen 3 months in advance and yet they did nothing to stop it or to save the lives of so many people.
At least the Chinese are helping other nations to combat this virus. UK government is not doing enough to combat this virus even in the UK. The same in the USA too.

I couldn't agree more. China informed WHO within four days of the doctors reporting the problem, worked on to figure what the illness is for the next couple of weeks then shut down the whole region within three weeks of informing WHO/doctors reporting the atypical pneumonia. People just love to outsource blame to societies with dissimilar ideals to themselves.

 

[Hugh Jass]

I was talking to a client in Hong Kong this morning, and she says they are starting to get back to normality a little bit now. She said that the supermarket shelf stripping went on for a month though.

I'm at my local Chinese tonight, and they told me that the schools are starting to reopen in China.

A lot of Chinese people from Europe are going back to China, for safety. They are being quarantined for 2 weeks before they can properly enter the country.

Maybe 3 months and things can start to get back to normal.

Bill Gates who predicted this pandemic said things should resume in that time frame.

Being idealistic, Europe and China could get better. But i think India and Africa will be bad for a while. Not sure about the US. Depends on what Trump does now.

 

[ClaytonBlackmoorLeftPeg]

Portuguese news anchors?!?! Jesus. lf there's one opinion I've always valued above all others its that of Portuguese news channels. We should have listened.

Or maybe we shouldn't be such panic merchants.

I do love it when people go out and find opinions or facts that back up theirs.
Portuguese news anchors

 

[SteveJ]

B Johnson is in trouble once this crisis subsides, however long that may be. His terrible choices are going to cost many live in the UK.

Sadly, I think it'll be a case of 'I'd like to see ol' Bozza Johnson wriggle his way out of this jam!'

 

[Hugh Jass]

Sadly, I think it'll be a case of 'I'd like to see ol' Bozza Johnson wriggle his way out of this jam!'

Sickening really what he is has done or more to the point not done. I hope his political career is over.

 

[Foxbatt]

Why don't people listen? Quarantine is what controlled it in China and Korea. Quarantine is what will control it anywhere else too.
Yes testing too. But testing everyone is impossible in most countries. Anyone with the symptoms were tested. Then they know to isolate them. Either collectively or in isolation.
All this public gatherings and congregation and hugging is just making it worse.
In the Muslim countries they have already banned going to the mosques.

 

[Mr Pigeon]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

There could be worse people to have as PM, to be fair. Boris for example.

 

[McGrathsipan]

Id be worried if I was in UK.
Boris the executioner has led the UK into the abyss here.

Absolute oaf of the highest order.
The British Trump.

 

[Hugh Jass]

Why don't people listen? Quarantine is what controlled it in China and Korea. Quarantine is what will control it anywhere else too.
Yes testing too. But testing everyone is impossible in most countries. Anyone with the symptoms were tested. Then they know to isolate them. Either collectively or in isolation.
All this public gatherings and congregation and hugging is just making it worse.
In the Muslim countries they have already banned going to the mosques.

I agree.

 

[Hugh Jass]

Id be worried if I was in UK.
Boris the executioner has led the UK into the abyss here.

Absolute oaf of the highest order.
The British Trump.

I am across the sea in Ireland and i am as worried about the UK as i am about Ireland.

 

[Sarni]

Why don't people listen? Quarantine is what controlled it in China and Korea. Quarantine is what will control it anywhere else too.
Yes testing too. But testing everyone is impossible in most countries. Anyone with the symptoms were tested. Then they know to isolate them. Either collectively or in isolation.
All this public gatherings and congregation and hugging is just making it worse.
In the Muslim countries they have already banned going to the mosques.

Quarantine would take months though before it gets all right because a lot of people can’t just stay at home all the time. To be fair nobody seems to have any clear idea how to deal with this outbreak.

 

[Revaulx]

Sadly, I think it'll be a case of 'I'd like to see ol' Bozza Johnson wriggle his way out of this jam!'

Not sure about this. Having a subordinate standing next to him who at least gives the impression of being knowledgeable, decisive and statesmanlike has not helped his reputation at all.

 

[Penna]

I've just been looking at our region's website, where the dead are listed by sex, age, where they died, their Comune of residence and any underlying health conditions. It's interesting data - lots of very old folk (one old dear of 99, shame she didn't get to her century), a handful of women in their 40s who all had serious health issues and one person with Down's Syndrome.

Men outnumber women 2 to 1, and the vast majority are in their late 70s or older - we have a lot of nonagenarians in this part of the world.

edit - 98.7% had pre-existing pathologies.

 

[Hugh Jass]

These pandemic like crisises will more than likely become more common. The Guardian said there is a good chance of another one in a couple of decades time. We cannot just say "let it infect everyone and then go from there." We already have had close calls with SARS, MERS and Ebola. There are only going to be more. So we have to effectively try to contain them.

We go the way of "herd immunity" every time something like this happens, economies wont function at all. You will have a ten year recession and then by the time the country and globalized economy picks up again, we will then have another pandemic again.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

Not sure about this. Having a subordinate standing next to him who at least gives the impression of being knowledgeable, decisive and statesmanlike has not helped his reputation at all.

There’s five years to the next election. Lot of water to go under a lot of bridges, to say the least. I wouldn’t want to call anything right now.

 

[Foxbatt]

Not sure about this. Having a subordinate standing next to him who at least gives the impression of being knowledgeable, decisive and statesmanlike has not helped his reputation at all.

Not at all. The two countries that have dealt with it has done thru quarantine and other measures. China, Korea and Taiwan did it basically thru quarantine and testing. They have said it all along and have sent their experts to Europe where they are being welcomed.
I guess the British or should I say the British government thinks they know too much about it. Look at the Lancet medical journal, where they accuse the government on not accepting the views of the experts. The British government knew from about the 20th of January what was happening in China. That's almost 3 months notice yet they ignored the advice.
In all honesty there should be a public inquiry on the failures of the government once this pandemic is over.

 

[11101]

@11101

News out of Italy is horrific. Any sign of new cases slowing down after lockdown? Should be starting to have an effect by now, surely?

Not really. It did look like the rise of new cases was slowing down but the last couple of days has seen massive increases again. I live in a mid size town and the wife and I have also noticed a lot more ambulance sirens around the last day or two. The only silver lining is that all the equipment orders made at the onset are now coming through, ICU places have gone from 5000 to 8000 and are rising quickly.

The law for the lockdown measures needs renewing this weekend anyway and I can see them tightening things further, theres a constant stream of complaints from government that people are not staying at home enough.



I have a statistician contact who is modelling the outbreak with his company. Hes been publishing it for a few days now and has been fairly spot on with numbers so far. He predicts R0 under 1 on April 1 or 2 and a total of 220k cases in Italy.

 

[SteveJ]

Boris will probably sack the Chancellor.

 

[africanspur]

@africanspur @Avatar you know anything about the situation in Egypt? Starting to see it mentioned more and more as a possible bad spot, despite official government denials.

Sorry buddy, haven't been logged in for a while.

Seems to mostly be cases from tourists over there as far as I can see, though the PH infrastructure there is of course not particularly good. ,

It is also very difficult to take any figures the government releases over there seriously.

My in laws seem relatively happy with the measures taken so far, even as a group generally very critical of the government. We'll have to see how effective it is though.

 

[Hugh Jass]

In twenty years time we will be talking about Boris Johnson in the same vein as Neville Chamberlain with his "peace in our time."

Terrible terrible terrible. People who shouldnt die are now going to die. And B Johnson wont be held accountable at all.