SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
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Brings a tear to my eye.
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Drop in cases with another 6k tested but I'm sure it will pick up after Sunday's activity and general defiance.
Unlikely. I think the peak will be in around 2-3 weeks. Especially when it comes to deaths.Maybe yesterday was the peak? Let's see what tomorrow says. We want 600-700 or lower and not a jump above 1,000 again.
This has been my method for 2 weeks now. Suckers going to their big named supermarkets hahahaha!!
AHAHAHA!!
Peter Hitchens is a pseudo-intellectual who mastered looking intelligent by being well spoken and not saying ummmm
It's nowhere near being the peak.Maybe yesterday was the peak? Let's see what tomorrow says. We want 600-700 or lower and not a jump above 1,000 again.
Very hopeful talk but:
From day 1 of lockdowns
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~7 days for symptoms to show = 1 unconfirmed case
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~7 days for symptoms to show of the other 2 or 3 people you live with who are also now infected = 3-4 unconfirmed cases
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~7 days for symptoms to progress to hospitalisation in 50% of those cases and become confirmed coronavirus cases
We are two thirds of the way through that progression in Italy. I would like to hope that most of the people who are going to get this in Italy have already got it, even if they or the government don't know it yet.
Natural variation probably due to volume of tests and the viruses incubation period.Maybe yesterday was the peak? Let's see what tomorrow says. We want 600-700 or lower and not a jump above 1,000 again.
Ireland looks to have halted the exponential growth. 121 cases today.
Unfortunately we're nowhere near the peak I fear. It takes at least a couple of weeks for any measure taken to affect the statistics due to how the virus cultivates,and we've only just started taking some measure in the last few days.Maybe yesterday was the peak? Let's see what tomorrow says. We want 600-700 or lower and not a jump above 1,000 again.
Italy went into full lockdown weeks ago and are still being hit hard every day, we're still nowhere near introducing those kind of measures let alone seeing the benefirs
The flu comparison still floating around is hilarious according to Worldometer there is 340,000 cases and 14,500 deaths which is 4,7% death rate(also most people haven’t recovered) the flu death rate is 0.02. If the amount of people get this that get the flu worldwide we will be down millions of people in the next year or so.
One things for sure this whole situation has made me realise how much I hate the British public.
All those idiots that arent staying home and are treating this like a free government issued holiday travelling around further spreading the virus deserve everything they get. I cant believe there's so many selfish, thick idiots roaming around.
All those idiots that arent staying home and are treating this like a free government issued holiday travelling around further spreading the virus deserve everything they get. I cant believe there's so many selfish, thick idiots roaming around.
He wouldn’t have had half the career he’s had without his brother associating the Hitchens name with intellect.
We are taking a lot of good steps most businesses are closed the only things really open are supermarkets and pharmacies and we have lines on the ground for distance also pharmacies are max 3 people at a time so are small shops
a hell of a lot would be the common sense guess. Coronavirus may not even be the reason why some of these people have died, just that they had the virus when they perished.
we have very little detail on who has died.
If you were to have an average day based on 600k deaths per year, that’s around 1,650 per day that would die without us having the presence of Coronavirus. I am in no way downplaying the severity of it - but it does help with some perspective
I imagine we will have a good idea in a years time - it would be a guess right now.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/...ight-answer.html?ito=amp_twitter_share-bottom
I don't disagree. Especially with this part towards the end.
This is a Professor of Medicine's opinion. I trust their opinion much more than I trust the opinions of politicians, people in the media and a public in panic mode.
I don't disagree. Especially with this part towards the end.
This is a Professor of Medicine's opinion. I trust their opinion much more than I trust the opinions of politicians, people in the media and a public in panic mode.
When you're doing out formulae to predict future numbers (I know there's no predictions here, but other posts had them with Excel sheets) how are you making the formulae for predictions, as a matter of interest? Lagrangian interpolation on the data points?
Nah. feck this. The government has been intentionally vague on their advice for the entirety.
It's not the people that are bad. It's the advice.
It's a combination of both.
I could understand NHS staff wondering who they're saving when they get crushed at a supermarket during an hour designated for them.
The following are all very valid points to counter the idea that countries could have reasonably been expected to lock down in January or early February:
The former editor of The Times, Sir Simon Jenkins, recently listed these unfulfilled scares: bird flu did not kill the predicted millions in 1997. In 1999 it was Mad Cow Disease and its human variant, vCJD, which was predicted to kill half a million. Fewer than 200 in fact died from it in the UK.
The first Sars outbreak of 2003 was reported as having ‘a 25 per cent chance of killing tens of millions’ and being ‘worse than Aids’. In 2006, another bout of bird flu was declared ‘the first pandemic of the 21st Century’.
There were similar warnings in 2009, that swine flu could kill 65,000. It did not. The Council of Europe described the hyping of the 2009 pandemic as ‘one of the great medical scandals of the century’. Well, we shall no doubt see.
I think that C19 is quite obviously a bigger crisis than all those mentioned. But we can only tell that because we're in the midst of it. It could have just as easily fizzled out like the examples mentioned above.
They'd be referring to the 'at risk' groups listed on their website.
it is good to have contracting opinions. We would all hope he’s more right than other projections.
however, you can be assured that the UK government is not basing its strategy on “political opinion” but based on the best scientific advice available at the time - it may turn out to be incorrect or somewhat incorrect, but this is not some sort of political ideology that the government is following.
Johnson, Trump & co can hardly complain about people disobeying instructions - both have risen to power on a wave of informality, of telling angry people to dismiss red tape-stuffiness and to ignore the views of 'The Man' (experts, 'elites', scientists etc etc). And now they want us to believe that they are Serious Politicians for Serious Times, who care about other people's welfare over their own interests? Ha.
Which, as me and others trying to work out if we're on it have said, is very vague.
So are you following the advice or doing something else?
The internet disinformation campaigns they launched during the elections has deluged the flow of news forever and it especially shows its ugliness in emergencies like these.
Not disagreeing that flu comparisons aren't particularly helpful but we have no idea about the true death rate of Covid-19. It totally depends on many people were tested (and in what condition the test subjects were in). The actual number of infected people is way higher than what is reported ("confirmed cases"). That's why we have wildly different death rates from almost 10% (Italy) to 0.3% (Germany).
I just saw in a Singapore newspaper that the Cuban produced Interferon Alpha 2B has been successful in treating covid 19. This was produced by Cuban Doctor Luis Herrera in 1986. It said that so far it has cured more than 1500 in China and they have taken this to Italy with them to treat the most vulnerable.
Many Latin American and Caribbean countries have asked for this medicine. It says there are more Cuban doctors working abroad on the covid than any other foreign country. A country that has its its life destroyed by the Americans are going out risking their lives to help other countries.
I am making a difference between Obama and Trump as Obama did ease sanctions against Cuba while Trump brought it back and now he has Iranian lives on his head for the sanctions he put so that they can't buy even medicine or supplies for covid.
It's no good Boris getting all Vitai Lampada about the advice, because unless the government says "you can't", people will think "we can if we want".
Recommending, advising and requesting gets you nowhere if a significant number of people are acting in their own interests, and not for the greater good.
Recommending, advising and requesting gets you nowhere if a significant number of people are acting in their own interests, and not for the greater good.
He is worrying about the certainty of the data we have at a point of the pandemic when certain data is impossible. Which is fine, nothing wrong with questioning uncertain data.
The correct response to acknowledging the uncertainty of the data isn't to assume the best case outcome though, it's to prepare for the reasonable worst case outcome. Especially at a point when we can already see the health services of other countries being overwhelmed in real time. Speculating about the hypothetical range of case fatality rates doesn't change the reality of what is actually happening in hospitals right now.
If you place so much faith in one particular Professor of Medicine, perhaps take note of what the overwhelming majority of his peers across the world are saying, some in direct response to this contrarian take. Hint: it's rather less optimistic.
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While I do agree that the flu comparisons should stop if we're being realistic there's going to be hundreds and thousands of people who have got this and don't know.
So really the death rate is a bit misleading.
I'm obliged to make semi-educated guesses as to my conduct during the crisis, rather than rely on the half-arsed advice/'suggestions' of a Prime Minister whose career(s) to date consist of untrustworthiness and winging-it.
You can call your GP if you're unsure. The likelihood is you'll know if you should be on it though, and will receive a letter by the 29th.
I haven't predicted anything, must be another person
So had 'the chat' with my boss and I'll be furloughed as of tomorrow. Massive relief. I can now properly isolate with my wife and two children for the next few months. My wife is a teacher working from home and still being paid in full so we should be OK!
I'm pleased for you, I hope you all stay safe together.
This.
The government spent a good while telling us to just crack on with it, when many of us knew this was absolutely insane, so individuals and businesses rightly ignored them. We are in no doubt that their advice is not to be trusted. We are left having to guess for ourselves.
It's not bad advice, they've admittedly been very slow in giving it out but thats where common sense should come in, theres people going to the seaside for family day out as I said some people are treating it like an extended bank holiday, Mums, dads, kids, grandparents.
I just cant believe the sheer stupidity of some people.