SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

sammsky1

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Not much you can do re drinks on a long haul I guess. Cleaning trays etc is a good move anytime I guess, given people stick their heads and feet on them.
When I left Singapore to fly back to Heathrow on 13 March it was a different world- no heat camera testing and only one thing of hand sanitiser in the whole damn terminal.
Can’t help but think dramatically different air travel experience is going to be one of the many changes coming in post Convid19 world!
 

RoadTrip

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It's good for headlines but it doesn't tell you much about how the outbreak is progressing, and that's what everybody should be worried about most at the moment. Deaths are never talked about by governments in terms of controlling the outbreak because you can't control them. As long as the testing criteria remains constant it shows you the trend you are in and that's what is being studied.
You’re ignoring that new cases is a direct result of the level of testing done. If we stopped testing people today then tomorrow we would have no new cases.

Therefore proper analytics factors in multiple data points and a discussion on which of the two is irrelevant because you need both to paint a picture. In isolation, they are equally as irrelevant as each other.
 

Dancfc

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UK Dates​
UK Deaths​
Italy Dates​
Italy Deaths​
Spain Dates​
Spain Deaths​
France Dates​
France Deaths​
March 8th​
3​
Feb 23rd​
3​
March 5th​
3​
March 2nd​
3​
March 9th​
5​
Feb 24th​
7​
March 6th​
8​
March 3rd​
4​
March 10th​
6​
Feb 25th​
11​
March 7th​
10​
March 4th​
4​
March 11th​
8​
Feb 26th​
12​
March 8th​
17​
March 5th​
7​
March 12th​
10​
Feb 27th​
17​
March 9th​
30​
March 6th​
9​
March 13th​
11​
Feb 28th​
21​
March 10th​
36​
March 7th​
16​
March 14th​
21​
Feb 29th​
29​
March 11th​
55​
March 8th​
19​
March 15th​
35​
March 1st​
41​
March 12th​
86​
March 9th​
30​
March 16th​
55​
March 2nd​
52​
March 13th​
133​
March 10th​
33​
March 17th​
71​
March 3rd​
79​
March 14th​
196​
March 11th​
48​
March 18th​
104​
March 4th​
107​
March 15th​
294​
March 12th​
61​
March 19th​
144​
March 5th​
148​
March 16th​
342​
March 13th​
79​
March 20th​
177​
March 6th​
197​
March 17th​
533​
March 14th​
91​
March 21st​
233​
March 7th​
233​
March 18th​
638​
March 15th​
127​
March 22nd​
281​
March 8th​
366​
March 19th​
833​
March 16th​
148​
March 23rd​
335​
March 9th​
463​
March 20th​
1,093​
March 17th​
175​
March 24th​
422​
March 10th​
631​
March 21st​
1,381​
March 18th​
244​
March 25th​
468​
March 11th​
827​
March 22nd​
1,813​
March 19th​
372​
March 26th​
March 12th​
1,016​
March 23rd​
2,207​
March 20th​
450​
March 13th​
1,266​
March 24th​
2,696​
March 21st​
562​
March 14th​
1,441​
March 25th​
3,434​
March 22nd​
674​
March 15th​
1,809​
March 26th​
March 23rd​
860​
March 16th​
2,158​
March 24th​
1100​
March 17th​
2,503​
March 25th​
1331​
At least a small rise in deaths.

RedSky, I can't retrieve the US data you added to the table, it's stuck in a quote.


Obviously the deaths are sad but in terms of the war against the virus the fact we were neck and neck with Italy's trajectory four days ago but are now nearly 400 deaths behind them (at the same stage) is pretty good news.
 

TMDaines

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I don't see why people fall for these clickbait articles. What do two American academics know about the UK's situation and policymaking? Next to nothing. Just because you're an expert in one thing doesn't mean you're an expert in everything.
The Guardian’s coverage of this has been pretty disappointing on the whole. This is another example of it.
 

Paxi

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1) get job for British Steel
2) lick toilet seat
3) get sacked by British Steel
4) profit

That's my Thursday planned out then.
:lol:

Then move to a 'likeminded' affluent area with your new found fortune.
 

CassiusClaymore

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Why is it? New cases is dependent on the amount of testing done. I think people want to see less dead people as the most important marker.
This is true but I guess you can say the NHS is 'coping' at the moment. The amount of new cases is relevant when then they end up in the hospital and there's no more beds or ventilators. That's when the shit hits the fan as it did in Italy.
 

TMDaines

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It's good for headlines but it doesn't tell you much about how the outbreak is progressing, and that's what everybody should be worried about most at the moment. Deaths are never talked about by governments in terms of controlling the outbreak because you can't control them. As long as the testing criteria remains constant it shows you the trend you are in and that's what is being studied.
The testing criteria isn’t remaining consistent though.
 

onemanarmy

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Testing has been massively increased in Belgium. Everyone who arrives in the hospital for whatever reason is being tested. We have a huge testing capacity apparently. Long live a decent healthcare and a very early lockdown (8-10 days ago). I hope I don't regret saying this in a few weeks...

3 people in a retirement home have died in my town of only 4500 inhabitants though. Terrible.
 

Ventura

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I'm not for experiments in times like this, but there is no way of saying we are right and they are wrong at this point, recriminations later on will be brutal later on though for whoever has called this wrong.

Countries could have totally fecked their economies for very little gain, if the countries who have taken a far softer approach end up in a similar way, but equally it could go the other way.
Sweden and Norway have a comparable number of confirmed cases (500 more for Norway), but Norway has tested at least 4x more people than Sweden, with Sweden at twice the population of Norway. Sweden also has 4x more deaths. This points to a huge number of undetected cases in Sweden.

So at this point it may be too late to bother with restrictions since the virus is likely everywhere already and spreading rapidly as we speak, with little being done to slow it down. The Swedes have made their choice, to put it that way.
 

bonothom

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This makes no sense whatsoever from mathematics point of view. 7.5k people have died in Italy so far, less than 500 in UK. That means how many people would have got sick to get to that many deaths in Italy, 400 million? Even if you factor in demographics it makes no sense that Lombardy alone has several times death toll of UK and cases keep piling up. It’s one thing to argue that there are more cases than reported, which is certainly true, and another to put a realistic number on this assumption. 50% of population is just thick guess.
How do you know that Lombardy figures are 100% correct? Why is there such a massive discrepancy between Italys death toll / confirmed cases and Germany for example. This might interest you
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-...se/have-many-coronavirus-patients-died-italy/


But Prof Ricciardi added that Italy’s death rate may also appear high because of how doctors record fatalities.
“The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus.
“On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity - many had two or three,” he says.
 

Tarrou

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It's good for headlines but it doesn't tell you much about how the outbreak is progressing, and that's what everybody should be worried about most at the moment. Deaths are never talked about by governments in terms of controlling the outbreak because you can't control them. As long as the testing criteria remains constant it shows you the trend you are in and that's what is being studied.
Total deaths is a significantly more accurate measurement than cases right now, so it's for sure very useful in modelling - despite the ~21 day lag between infections and deaths.
 

Adamsk7

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My best mate lives in Stockholm and says it’s just like a normal evening there tonight - bars, restaurants and clubs all open, trains as busy as usual, people walking the streets, hugging each other etc. Luckily he’s now WFH so hasn’t gone out much. He’s very worried it’s going to kick off big time there shortly.
 

Bojan11

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Bugzy malone aka clown face was speeding on his quad bike in a middle of a lockdown and now seems to have had a serious accident. Not going to pretend to fake sympathy for him because the cnut is going to take NHS resources when he really should have stayed at home and listened.
 

Samid

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Trump bragging about the US (330 million) having tested more people in the last week than South Korea (50 million) have tested in the last two months. Genius.
 

TheReligion

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Bugzy malone aka clown face was speeding on his quad bike in a middle of a lockdown and now seems to have had a serious accident. Not going to pretend to fake sympathy for him because the cnut is going to take NHS resources when he really should have stayed at home and listened.
Source?
 

Tarrou

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The testing criteria aren’t consistent though. They vary, from country to country, and change over time. To be honest, I think the main reason governments focus on cases rather than deaths is a combination of not wanting to make the problem seem smaller than it is and not wanting to seem too morbid.

Here’s a good graph on deaths. Uk trending towards being possibly slightly worse than Italy but not as bad as Spain.

If you compare the earlier trajectory of Italy (no curvature for first 12 days) with the UK's, it looks like the UK's arc is beginning to curve sooner

It's probably blind optimism, to be honest, but I'm hopeful that the UK is trending to be better off than Italy

The US very worryingly seems to be trending in the other direction, and if the trend continues they will surely be the worst hit country
 

Pogue Mahone

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If you compare the earlier trajectory of Italy (no curvature for first 12 days) with the UK's, it looks like the UK's arc is beginning to curve sooner

It's probably blind optimism, to be honest, but I'm hopeful that the UK is trending to be better off than Italy

The US very worryingly seems to be trending in the other direction, and if the trend continues they will surely be the worst hit country
I think the UK should track better than Italy. They reacted later than they should have but probably still sooner than Italy, where it caught them a lot more unaware/earlier in the global crisis.
 

Mr Pigeon

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:lol:

Then move to a 'likeminded' affluent area with your new found fortune.
:lol: somewhere in the world there's a place where affluent and like minded cocknoses leave fancy breakfasts in hedges filled with money rolls protected by hurlshanks on a NATIONLEVEL
NATION
NATION
NATION LEVEL
NATIONAL LEVEL
NATIONAL LEVEL

SORRY ITS THE PHONE
 
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Dve

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A study from Oxford suggests that the virus spread from China one month earlier than first assumed, and that as much as half the English population already could be infected, and that most people have very small - or no symptoms at all. The study relies on computer modelling on numbers from Italy and England.

The researches behind this study do warn, however, that this is computer modelling, and not hard evidence. We need studies on a representative selection of the population and find out how many actually are infected, and how many have been infected by the virus. This can be done by blood testing, as there will be antibodies to the virus in your blood if you had it.

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

On Iceland, The Icelandic genetics company DeCode Genetics, reports to have tracked 40 mutations of the coronavirus in Iceland. They suggest that the virus is acting more like the flu, by becoming more infectious, but less harmfull with time, - which, according to them, is typical for viruses.

https://www.information.dk/indland/...ationer-coronavirus-alene-paa-island?lst_frnt

There is still so much we don´t know about this virus, but if the Oxford study can be backed up with real findings, that would be a total game changer. It would mean normal life and football soon to return.
 
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SambaBoy

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if you think it’s only the US and GB, then you’ve obviously not been to Australia. Social distancing seems to be a thing that as long as you don’t get in a sections of the populations way you can maintain it, but if you do get in their way they’ll walk straight into you.
People queuing outside of store before opening hours, mass gatherings in parks and beaches. The ignorance is wide spread. We’re in for a bad time, we just haven’t actually figured it out yet...
I agree with this. Australia seems so lax compared to what I have seen back home. People happily standing next to each other and just going about their business as normal.
 

Blodssvik

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My best mate lives in Stockholm and says it’s just like a normal evening there tonight - bars, restaurants and clubs all open, trains as busy as usual, people walking the streets, hugging each other etc. Luckily he’s now WFH so hasn’t gone out much. He’s very worried it’s going to kick off big time there shortly.
Yeah that is a lie.
 

Dve

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A study from Oxford suggests that the virus spread from China one month earlier than first assumed, and that as much as half the English population already could be infected, and that most people have very small - or no symptoms at all. The study relies on computer modelling on numbers from Italy and England.

The researches behind this study do warn, however, that this is computer modelling, and not hard evidence. We need studies on a representative selection of the population and find out how many actually are infected, and how many have been infected by the virus. This can be done by blood testing, as there will be antibodies to the virus in your blood if you had it.

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

On Iceland, The Icelandic genetics company DeCode Genetics, reports to have tracked 40 mutations of the coronavirus in Iceland. They suggest that the virus is acting more like the flu, by becoming more infectious, but less harmfull with time, - which, according to them, is typical for viruses.

https://www.information.dk/indland/...ationer-coronavirus-alene-paa-island?lst_frnt

There is still so much we don´t know about this virus, but if the Oxford study can be backed up with real findings, that would be a total game changer. It would mean normal life and football soon to return.
 

Wibble

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There is still so much we don´t know about this virus, but if the Oxford study can be backed up with real findings, that would be a total game changer. It would mean normal life and football soon to return.
If my grandmother had balls she would be my grandfather. I hope they are but ..........
 

Utdstar01

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Probably a shortage of tests, makes you wonder how many cases are we missing.
Seems so going off of what's being reported. Whats really worrying is the lack of Ventillators. Apparently the NHS only has 8,000. Got an order with Dyson for 10,000 more but apparently it's just a prototype and will take 2 weeks for them to get it OK'd and start manufacturing a significant order. It's estimated we could need as many as 30,000 ventillators.