SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

4bars

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Yes, you've completely misunderstood. My whole point was Spain was in a upwards trajectory and not plateauing 1-2 weeks ago, not sure how it could be more clear but I'll leave it there.
I don't know why are you so railed up. I just tried to make some constructive discussion. help yourself mate
 

Brwned

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Potentially dumb questions. If suddenly masks are deemed to help prevent the virus spreading, why they are considered so poor at preventing the healthy from getting infected?

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/start-wearing-face-masks-britain-urged-mzg9g27zc
The primary opposition to face masks is essentially about compliance:

Public Health England said:
"Facemasks must be worn correctly, changed frequently, removed properly, disposed of safely and used in combination with good universal hygiene behaviour in order for them to be effective.

"Research also shows that compliance with these recommended behaviours reduces over time when wearing facemasks for prolonged periods."
So as I understand it the major worry is about increased exposure to the virus, because people let it get under their masks when they take it off improperly or wear it inappropriately (trapping it at close quarters).

For the sick people it doesn't matter if they remove things improperly and the virus gets under their mask since they're already infected. Its function is primarily to prevent the virus spreading when you cough or sneeze. That's just a less onerous task for people as it only requires them to have the mask covering both their nose and mouth, without thinking about touching their face too often, taking it off properly.

There's still some increased risks that come from wearing a mask when sick, especially for those not used to it. They might wear it improperly and get complacent when coughing or sneezing, spreading it more carelessly, or they might take it off and pass on the infection to someone else. But on balance the amount of times it stops the spread by trapping the cough / sneeze makes it beneficial in the vast majority of cases.

For the healthy people the major unknown is how many people would misuse it and in which ways, because the cost / benefits aren't so firmly weighted in favour even when it's used perfectly. When it's used imperfectly, which they seem to worry would be often, it increases the number of risky behaviours while offering relatively little protection (if it's just the surgical masks).
 
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Dr. StrangeHate

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I heard a pretty bleak take on why developing countries might not be hit too hard. They don’t typically live long enough, or have access to adequate healthcare to end up with a large elderly/frail population. So their mortality rate might be a hell of a lot lower than we will see in wealthier countries.
People with any underlying conditions do not live long enough, rest are ok. Secondly the population is very young in most cases any way.

The most bleak part for me was that you don’t see any disabled people in the working class because they rarely survive and are given less prority even in their own homes.
 
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acnumber9

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I see what you did there! I'm not against it, I do feel sorry for the key workers that have to work through this and then have to pay extra tax.

I'm a little over minimum wage so hopefully I wont be seeing a total of £100 taken out of my pay (I'm a mechanic, and seen as a key worker, even though no one can come to the garage...) and as @sun_rightly said, I think business will be paying for a lot of this too, my guess is vat will be set to 25 or 30% - and I doubt the government will reduce it after the pandemic bill clears.
It won’t be business paying that then. It will be us all over again.
 

Ayush_reddevil

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Is there any good explanation for why mass testing helps ? I mean something that makes sense apart from the fact that Korea and Germany did it and it worked for them
 

Fortitude

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I’m positive for Covid19 as of yesterday. I’ve been dealing with so many patients recently that any one of them may have given it to me. I’ve worn a (surgical) mask every single time I saw a patient, wore gloves, asked them to look the opposite direction while I take bloods from their arm.

I’m feeling pretty damn rough. The headache is nauseating and constant. The dry cough has become more frequent. I’ve bought a pulse oximetry device that should arrive today as that’s the best indicator of when you’re starting to go downhill.

Our hospital was about to abolish “specialities” from next week too. Everyone becomes a Covid doctor and assigned a random ward every week.
There was a meeting on Tuesday that I missed that said that the hospital are expecting 150 to a 1000 Covid patients to be admitted within the next month or so. Shits getting real in Wales (although the Newport area seems to be the worst hit in the UK going by “per capita” or something like that).
Very sorry to hear this and hope you make a full recovery. All the best.
 

0le

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If you cover your mouth and nose with anything, it may help if someone coughs or sneezes near you (but wash it when you get home). I think that those of us who are re-using masks over and over again might as well just use a scarf, quite honestly.
It depends on the seal, see below:

It's just the fact the mask blocks it on the way out supposedly, if you cough, but not on the way in if someone coughs on you cos the tiny particle goes through the mask.
When you breathe in or out, if there is a good seal between the mask and your face, the air flow will be forced to go through the filter element. My understanding is that this will slow down the air sufficiently for the particles/droplets to become trapped.

Certainly without a good quality seal, you will inhale and exhale some air through gaps in the seal region, rather than through the filter element. High density (compared to air) particles/droplets which are ~1 micron (typically) and are already suspended in the air are excellent at following the air flow. There is no debate about this, it is well known that such particles/droplets, once suspended, follow air motion extremely well. So if there are any gaps in the seal, there is a risk you can inhale them, and also a risk you can exhale back into the atmosphere.

If you want to wear the mask as a means of preventing others from becoming infected, this is risky, at least for some masks. As the filter blocks particles/droplets, it can become more difficult to breathe through because the filter "clogs up". This idea that you can "clean" the disposable masks (and therefore allow you to reuse them) may not be true. I don't know how the masks are designed, but I believe the filter element of some of the masks may just be layers of fabric, so you may be able to clean the outer layer well enough but not the inside layers.

This idea that you "don't touch your face" makes sense in theory but in practice, you will still scratch an itch, rub your eyes (for half masks) and risk removing the mask incorrectly and therefore touching your face. You should not be using a mask for the sole intention to avoid touching your face. If this is someones motive, they are much better off just wearing latex/nitrile gloves.
 

Virgil

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Because people mainly get infected from touching an infected surface... A mask does not stop you touching an Infected surface then your own face

A mask does stop an infected person coughing onto a surface or onto their hands and can prevent the surface becoming infected in the first place

Or at least that's my guess?
It's just the fact the mask blocks it on the way out supposedly, if you cough, but not on the way in if someone coughs on you cos the tiny particle goes through the mask.
If you cover your mouth and nose with anything, it may help if someone coughs or sneezes near you (but wash it when you get home). I think that those of us who are re-using masks over and over again might as well just use a scarf, quite honestly.
These replies illustrate my view perfectly. Now who is right and who is wrong. The worry is that across the world the experts have not adopted a unified view so how the deuce are the rest of us supposed to sort the wheat from the chaff
 

horsechoker

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Is there any good explanation for why mass testing helps ? I mean something that makes sense apart from the fact that Korea and Germany did it and it worked for them
If you know who has the virus and who hasn't then you isolate those who do and thus prevent more people getting infected. A lot of people are asymptomatic so they could be spreading the virus without knowing, if you do know you're infected then you know to take measures which prevent others getting the virus.
 

Dr. StrangeHate

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I live in a country like this and I'd say the assessment is spot on. However the younger generations are also full of people with terrible immune system, alcoholics, drug users and what not. Our older generation may not be hit so much but the 16-30 and 31-45 are the 2 age groups with most cases here.
Considering how unsanitary the conditions are that they live in and how closely they live I would expect them to have a better immune system. They are very heavy smokers though, which is going to have an effect definitely.
 

Arruda

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Would those neck gaiters that you can wear over your face help any?
I've seen tissue masks or covers being unadvised by pneumologists. Arguably the virus can easily be breathed in through them (too large pores) so even if someone coughs into you you can still "suction it", plus they will provide a wet and warm environment that can prolong the survival.of the virus.

Mind you this is not based on evidence, it's merely their conjecture.

Maybe.

One of the top medics over here mentioned yesterday that there's some evidence that improper and prolonged use can causes the virus to grow inside the masks and cause all sorts of issues.

Whether or not that's bollocks, I have zero idea.
It's not bollocks. But if they existed in enough numbers it would make sense to advise it's use and make campaigns teaching how to use it, just like they do with hand washing.
 

Fiskey

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I see what you did there! I'm not against it, I do feel sorry for the key workers that have to work through this and then have to pay extra tax.

I'm a little over minimum wage so hopefully I wont be seeing a total of £100 taken out of my pay (I'm a mechanic, and seen as a key worker, even though no one can come to the garage...) and as @sun_rightly said, I think business will be paying for a lot of this too, my guess is vat will be set to 25 or 30% - and I doubt the government will reduce it after the pandemic bill clears.
VAT is a horrible tax (apart from its easy to collect), I hope not. Maybe a chance for a government to have a proper look at wealth taxes, even if initially on a one off basis. To be honest with the oil price crashing and more people not driving I don't know why Rishi hasn't stuck 10p a litre on the price of fuel for the next year.
 

Dve

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North Korea as well... Dread to think what's actually going on there

Think they have said they have no cases

Also think they said they had developed a cure

Rocket man's probably trying to weaponise it
I´m worried that cure could involve shooting people.
 

Buster15

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It's just the fact the mask blocks it on the way out supposedly, if you cough, but not on the way in if someone coughs on you cos the tiny particle goes through the mask.
Indeed.
And the latest research shows that a cough pushes out droplets for up to 4m.
And a sneeze up to 8m.

I have seen many pictures of face masks which do not fit tightly around the side of the face, at the cheeks.

As soon as the wearer breaths in, that is exactly where the air will be drawn in.
 

zing

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It's just the fact the mask blocks it on the way out supposedly, if you cough, but not on the way in if someone coughs on you cos the tiny particle goes through the mask.
Dumb question - why would that be the case? The particles are the same size regardless of what direction they're coming in.
 

Sarni

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It’s only been 3 weeks but I already feel some people are going insane. After the incident 3 weeks ago which I mentioned on here (a guy beating up his wife on the street which I interruped), yesterday a drunk taxi driver who lives next to me hit a tree next to my apartment and then tried to beat up his wife but she wouldn’t let him in, and today while walking my dog I’ve seen a young woman crying loudly and kicking every bin and road sign. She was the only person on the street so it was a bit like I was in a zombie film.
 

Buster15

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VAT is a horrible tax (apart from its easy to collect), I hope not. Maybe a chance for a government to have a proper look at wealth taxes, even if initially on a one off basis. To be honest with the oil price crashing and more people not driving I don't know why Rishi hasn't stuck 10p a litre on the price of fuel for the next year.
Totally agree.
He really should have done that in his Budget where he froze the tax level.

Regarding VAT, I believe that the governments should reduce the level from 20% back to at least the level prior to the global financial crisis; 17.5 in the UK.

This would be a good way to stimulate demand.
 

Arruda

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Is there any good explanation for why mass testing helps ? I mean something that makes sense apart from the fact that Korea and Germany did it and it worked for them
It makes quarantine measures more effective. For example, as I've already said earlier, we have lifted quarantines of assymptomatic patients after 14 days which later turned out to be positive and infect other people. If they had been tested before, and were positive the quarantine would have been reset and longer.

Quarantined positive cases are also monitored more actively, which allows for earlier care in cases of more serious disease, which will obviously be better for survival than if we reach them only when they're nearing a critical state, so it may lower mortality.

I also think it allows for more accurate public health measures, such as severe lockdown of higher prevalence areas.

Most of this post is speculation, it's my impression.
 
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Dve

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Thats the really frightening thing. If current thinking is right and it’s all down to testing and social distancing then with such limited resources god help Africa if it takes hold because from what we have seen so far all nations have been very insular In their approach.
And not only Africa. The Pakistani prime minister, Imran Khan, stated on Pakistani telly that they cannot afford closing down cities, as starvation would cause deaths than the virus.
 

Jippy

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The primary opposition to face masks is essentially about compliance:



So as I understand it the major worry is about increased exposure to the virus, because people let it get under their masks when they take it off improperly or wear it inappropriately (trapping it at close quarters).

For the sick people it doesn't matter if they remove things improperly and the virus gets under their mask since they're already infected. Its function is primarily to prevent the virus spreading when you cough or sneeze. That's just a less onerous task for people as it only requires them to have the mask covering both their nose and mouth, without thinking about touching their face too often, taking it off properly.

There's still some increased risks that come from wearing a mask when sick, especially for those not used to it. They might wear it improperly and get complacent when coughing or sneezing, spreading it more carelessly, or they might take it off and pass on the infection to someone else. But on balance the amount of times it stops the spread by trapping the cough / sneeze makes it beneficial in the vast majority of cases.

For the healthy people the major unknown is how many people would misuse it and in which ways, because the cost / benefits aren't so firmly weighted in favour even when it's used perfectly. When it's used imperfectly, which they seem to worry would be often, it increases the number of risky behaviours while offering relatively little protection (if it's just the surgical masks).
Ah, thank you, that does make sense.
 

0le

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Dumb question - why would that be the case? The particles are the same size regardless of what direction they're coming in.
There is a range of particle and droplet sizes.

Indeed.
And the latest research shows that a cough pushes out droplets for up to 4m.
And a sneeze up to 8m.

I have seen many pictures of face masks which do not fit tightly around the side of the face, at the cheeks.

As soon as the wearer breaths in, that is exactly where the air will be drawn in.
Yes, the author of that paper was a bit sly I thought though. The group already published work based on that experiment and model several years ago in the Journal of Fluid Mechanics (JFM), one of the top tier papers for this field. The novelty of the latest work seems to be that they repeated an experiment and obtained the maximum distance it spread - although it is not clear whether they already had this data before, I'd need to read the older paper in more detail. It is certainly interesting work, but similar physics has already been carried out in engineering and those studies were far more detailed, where individual droplet size and velocity have been measured at instantaneous points in time.
 

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0le

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These replies illustrate my view perfectly. Now who is right and who is wrong. The worry is that across the world the experts have not adopted a unified view so how the deuce are the rest of us supposed to sort the wheat from the chaff
There is complete agreement that if you wear the appropriate mask correctly, then you will not inhale droplets which contain the virus, and not exhale the droplets if you are infected.

The only debates seem to be about how significant is the transmission of the virus via coughing/sneezing and secondly the practicality/issues of the general public each being issued a mask.
 

Pogue Mahone

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I've seen tissue masks or covers being unadvised by pneumologists. Arguably the virus can easily be breathed in through them (too large pores) so even if someone coughs into you you can still "suction it", plus they will provide a wet and warm environment that can prolong the survival.of the virus.

Mind you this is not based on evidence, it's merely their conjecture.



It's not bollocks. But if they existed in enough numbers it would make sense to advise it's use and make campaigns teaching how to use it, just like they do with hand washing.
The most obvious justification I’ve heard for wearing them is they stop infected (possibly asymptomatic) people spewing droplets all over the place when they talk, sneeze, cough. Which makes sense to me. Even the crappiest, flimsy mask will block large droplets flying out of someone’s mouth or nose. Most of them anyway. Obviously only works if everyone wears them when they leave the house.
 

Buster15

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There is a range of particle and droplet sizes.



Yes, the author of that paper was a bit sly I thought though. The group already published work based on that experiment and model several years ago in the Journal of Fluid Mechanics (JFM), one of the top tier papers for this field. The novelty of the latest work seems to be that they repeated an experiment and obtained the maximum distance it spread - although it is not clear whether they already had this data before, I'd need to read the older paper in more detail. It is certainly interesting work, but similar physics has already been carried out in engineering and those studies were far more detailed, where individual droplet size and velocity have been measured at instantaneous points in time.
It was a high speed video I saw shown on the BBC news.
The smallest droplets going the furthest.
I had the impression it was done by the WHO.