SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Irwin99

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People staying home last weekend and this present weekend in response to the Tokyo Governor`s call - credit to many Tokyoites for doing that - cannot reverse the damage done not only from the carelessness and complacency that set in but the basic reason for it. And that is the Japan`s Government`s refusal to conduct any real testing which would enable them to isolate quickly and track cases and potential cases. And of course now as the more realistic figures although highly likely under-reported are coming out in the unique Japanese linear way instead of exponential way, another `surprise` is the inability to track a significant number of cases and potential cases.

Japan is not an outlier - it`s an out and out liar.
I thought this was the country that brought Hikomori to the world ....they should already have millions of people staying at home, doing nothing.
 

Dve

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Because people mainly get infected from touching an infected surface... A mask does not stop you touching an Infected surface then your own face

A mask does stop an infected person coughing onto a surface or onto their hands and can prevent the surface becoming infected in the first place

Or at least that's my guess?
Yes, that´s an important point. And not only when you cough, but the mask will also stop much of your spit when you open your mouth to speak.
 

massi83

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Eh?

God you’re a weird bunch in here. Norway so far are doing a better job than Sweden, South Korea certainly, Singapore, China (who knows).

I’ve no idea how well Sweden will do, probably the same as most other European countries by the end I’d imagine, I genuinely don’t think there will be a huge difference anywhere.

But Germany have had thousands critically ill for weeks, yet their numbers go up so little everyday, unlike any other country?
Probably it is because they have better protected their elderly. Younger people can stay critical for a long time but still survive.
 

sglowrider

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Eh?

God you’re a weird bunch in here. Norway so far are doing a better job than Sweden, South Korea certainly, Singapore, China (who knows).

I’ve no idea how well Sweden will do, probably the same as most other European countries by the end I’d imagine, I genuinely don’t think there will be a huge difference anywhere.

But Germany have had thousands critically ill for weeks, yet their numbers go up so little everyday, unlike any other country?
What are you blabbering on about? Facts matter.

Norway got its first case on the 29th of Feb and has 5,645 cases to date with 66 deaths in five weeks -- relative newbies to the game. Both Korea and Singapore had their first cases back in January.

Norway's much further back along the curve.
 

0le

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This should be bigger news, but it'll get swept under the carpet and videos of people clapping will be shown instead.
To be honest, NHS clapping is newsworthy. It raises morale in the community and more importantly, for staff. A politician carrying out what seems to be investments (according to what others have said here) is not newsworthy whatsoever.
 

cyberman

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I never said a few months, I know schools are out till September and got no qualms with it.

I'm talking about the idea of lockdown "for as long as it takes", anyone who thinks thats has been utterly brainwashed and ironically would be the approach that costs the most lives (and by some distance).

I'm on board with the current measures in the short term,it's the right thing to do, but there will come a point it becomes counter productive and do the total opposite of protecting the NHS and saving lives.
Theres so much that will happen between now and that point. The mistake youre making is looking too far into the future as if this is it.
Thats where the restlessness is coming from and its unnecesary.
 

0le

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We are not in any position to say any country is doing any better than any other country. Once the pandemic is over, the data examined and scrutinized, and the respected differences in all countries properly understood (e.g the way deaths are recorded, # of elderly, cultural values etc), we may then be able to say Country X did well and Country Y did not.
 

Josep Dowling

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a
Wayne Rooney says players face a no-win situation in wage debate

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/52172196

Is he being a dick or does he have a point.
Players aren’t playing or even training and are getting paid ridiculous salaries. Any football players arguing this point are dicks in my opinion . The entire football community should have been quicker to offer financial support. The fact they haven’t and the defence of the PFA for their actions is awful. Can’t help but feel elite football has shown it’s true colours in this situation. I just hope United don’t furlough staff as well otherwise I will question supporting the club anymore.
 

Prometheus

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Taking my post completely out of context. What you don't seem to realise is people not being educated will result in a long term problem of lack of nurses, surgeons etc because the people who would normally have made it didn't get the appropriate education, therefore costing life, or is it only some form of life that's important to you?

Also a long term lock down happens the economy will collapse to the point people won't be able to afford to FEED THEIR KIDS.

If you're actually an advocate of long term lockdown you're may aswellsigning scores of young children's death warrants.
Missing out on some temporary schoolwork is not going to result in being people "not being educated", and lack of nurses and surgeons. Your concern, you say, is that then people will die as a result. First of all, it's hard for me to buy your concern for the people of the future if you're so apathetic about the deaths that would occur now without lock down. Secondly, the facts are: presently, people are dying, and more people would die without lock down measures. It's imperative that we try and save these lives. What's actually causing a shortage of nurses and surgeons is the disease overwhelming the healthcare system, like it did in Italy, which actually cost the lives of 60+ doctors so far; or over 600 years of medical training! This actually causes shortage of medical professionals, not your nieces missing opportunities to doodle dinosaurs.
 
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vidic blood & sand

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I think the social distancing rules are unbalanced. I can't understand why the government is so upset about people sunbathing in a park when they are well spread out, but continue to encourage manufacturing businesses to stay open where 10s 100s or 1000s are working together in a closed environment.
 

Prometheus

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I think the social distancing rules are unbalanced. I can't understand why the government is so upset about people sunbathing in a park when they are well spread out, but continue to encourage manufacturing businesses to stay open where 10s 100s or 1000s are working together in a closed environment.
You're right on the second point, but regarding sunbathers, people are not spread out. They are treating it as friends/family social gathering.
 

do.ob

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German figures still make little sense considering how many have been “critical” for weeks now.
Chance Germany is only calling it a Covid-death is Covid-19 is the main cause?
Germany even keeps taking (small doeses) of Corona patients from other countries, three days ago it was another 200. A member of my family has colleagues at a larger hospital in a bigger city and while they have made preparations for an onslaught they barely seem to have to handle any critical cases thus far. Despite afaik doing the most tests per capita in Europe we have 70k active cases and before the crisis were listed with 28k ICU beds and 25k ventilators. I think thus far our health services just haven't really been tested by the Virus yet, at least in comparison to the UK with 42k active cases and apparently 6k ventilators for the NHS.
 
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0le

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I think the social distancing rules are unbalanced. I can't understand why the government is so upset about people sunbathing in a park when they are well spread out, but continue to encourage manufacturing businesses to stay open where 10s 100s or 1000s are working together in a closed environment.
Manfacturing is absolutely essential. We still need supplies, for example, chemical supplies for those new tests, oxygen for hospitals, food production etc. The workers here are just as much keyworkers as the NHS workers.
 

BootsyCollins

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We should look at countries doing well and see what exactly is the reason why. And we should look at countries with bigger problems and see what went wrong.

But this pandemic had created a sort of hatred towards people who think different than yourself. Or maybe not created but made much stronger and more visable. The fact is that expert dont know much on how to handle this, so people on internet forums and social media knows even less. Still everybody is so sure thats they are right and everybody who differs are wrong. And i understand with the stakes at risk people are tense as hell, but we should all try to relax a little and understand that we all want the same thing. For this, and what follows, to do as little damage as possible.
 

Eriku

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What are you blabbering on about? Facts matter.

Norway got its first case on the 29th of Feb and has 5,645 cases to date with 66 deaths in five weeks -- relative newbies to the game. Both Korea and Singapore had their first cases back in January.

Norway's much further back along the curve.
He said compared to Sweden. He was just giving examples that he’s not just shouting Sweden #1.
 

Dancfc

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Theres so much that will happen between now and that point. The mistake youre making is looking too far into the future as if this is it.
Thats where the restlessness is coming from and its unnecesary.
The future has to be looked at and potential situations that may rise.

The cold hard reality is, lockdown for any serious length of time can't happen, it will cost too many lives. If for argument sake we can close down the world for around a year/until this virus dies or mutates to low risk and still have a healthy situation to come out of it, ofcourse I'd be firmly on board with it no matter what but that won't be the case.

Missing out on some temporary schoolwork is not going to result in being people "not being educated", and lack of nurses and surgeons. Your concern, you say, is that then people will die as a result. First of all, it's hard for me to buy your concern for the people of the future if you're so apathetic about the deaths that would occur without lock down. The facts are: presently, people are dying, and more people would die without lock down measures. It's imperative that we try and save these lives. What's actually causing a shortage of nurses and surgeons is the disease overwhelming the healthcare system, like it did in Italy, which actually cost the lives of 60+ doctors so far; or over 600 years of medical training! This actually causes shortage of medical professionals, not your nieces missing opportunities to doodle dinosaurs.
Okay then, let's say for argument sake we lock down till the virus either completely dies or heads to very low risk, and for further argument sake let's say that takes a year.

The world reopens with 60% of businesses gone (and let's be clear, that's a wildly optimistic estimate), who pays the taxes that keep the NHS running? Who pays the taxes that keep the many many families who can't find a job because there are none fed?

And I'm not "apathetic" about the deaths that will occur, not least because at some point a lockdown will actually start causing more deaths in the moment too, get to that in a second. I've already said I'm on board with the measures at the minute, it's just not remotely sustainable for this to be a long term thing. Even factoring out the devastating long term effects, hospitals will at some point while the virus is still prelevant be inundated with patients who attempt suicide, are victims of domestic violence, come into complication due to severe stess etc (all of those things are going up already) and that will keep rising further while the country are on house arrest, what will that do? Further take away staff from Covid areas, take more ventilators so someone with the virus will be denied it, in others words totally defeating the object of lock down in the first place.

I want in a perfect world no lives lost atall but tragically that's not possible, so the next best thing is as many lives saved as humanly possible, a lock down for any serious amount of time won't be how that's achieved.

I fully agree with the measures presently because at this moment in time they are protecting the NHS and saving lives, but it will get to a point where it starts doing the complete opposite, not just in the long run but the immediate present as explained above.
 

Sky1981

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No, don`t forget China. It`s the most secretive and dictatorial government in the world and more so than North Korea because its economic power allows it be part of the international business community. No mass graves? They don`t need them - they have cremation as is common in many countries in Asia. They need more urns and more urns have been noted. The great firewall of China is their friend - the internet in some ways is completely unrecognisable in China from our perspective.

Another secretive country that is generally a democracy although it has some surprisingly authoritarian aspects when you know its legal system and live here is Japan.

Forget Japan among the exemplars - if you believe Japan deserves to be listed with the other countries re COVID-19 for good government that includes transparency of policy and information, a health system whose experts are given media freedom to speak openly. politicians being truthful and not concealing data and genuine means to get this pandemic under control such as increasing testing and then isolation of the
infected, then you are very much mistaken.

I`m in Tokyo and I expect there to be many more cases here and everywhere except the most isolated parts of the archipelago that is Japan. Apparently `now` the numbers for all Japan are over 4,000 with under 100 deaths. And guess what? They`re increasing in a linear way according to the national govt`s data fudgers, er statisticians. So Japan doesn`t have exponential increases. Apparently.

The answer to all this nonsense about putting Japan with responsible countries is simple - criminally low testing numbers. The policy is to refuse testing except if you have pneumonia. There are exceptions now such as Japanese nationals returning from abroad. There are a few exceptions in some prefectures.

The Tokyo Olympics were the biggest stand-alone reason this shit-show has been allowed to develop but of course medical cartels, media cartels, a disgraceful right wing government and a shambles of opposition parties, lack of an active participation in political discussion and debate among the Japanese public, in some cases a sense of superiority that Japanese somehow wouldn`t have any real problem with the virus because they are `cleaner`, etc, have actively repressed responsible measures.

Surprise, surprise - increasing clusters have formed around so-called entertainment areas commonly located throughout urban Japan near major railway stations. The sex industry there often functions as quickie sex breaks for male company employees during the day and then after work. . Now we hear the virus is increasingly showing up in a younger demographic - unsurprising considering the complacency that set in during the latter part of February.

Of course it is also connected to international travel with Japanese just like other countries` people refusing to change or cancel their plans. Less understandable to me is why a significant number of them decided to get their jollies in Italy, Spain and France despite having earlier information on COVID-19`s rampant spread there.

Grossly deflated case numbers because of minimal testing caused many in Tokyo especially to lower their guard unlike in January and most of February although some attractions and bars, cafes and clubs stayed shuttered.

In the middle of March I was astonished to see university students over-crowding popular areas and then at night time when coming home from work, young and not so young company employees, many drunk, laughing and spraying their saliva around on crowded Yamanote Loop Line stations. This is the main Tokyo line that runs around the city. That scene is not unusual in normal times but it shouldn`t have gone on the way it did in these times.

Elderly people were riding subways and trains for something to do during the daytime because a number of community centres for the elderly had closed amidst earlier virus fears. As March progressed those with more money started taking weekday and weekend trips on the lines leading from Tokyo to the surrounding prefectures. The Tokyo Olympics hadn`t been cancelled yet.

People staying home last weekend and this present weekend in response to the Tokyo Governor`s call - credit to many Tokyoites for doing that - cannot reverse the damage done not only from the carelessness and complacency that set in but the basic reason for it. And that is the Japan`s Government`s refusal to conduct any real testing which would enable them to isolate quickly and track cases and potential cases. And of course now as the more realistic figures although highly likely under-reported are coming out in the unique Japanese linear way instead of exponential way, another `surprise` is the inability to track a significant number of cases and potential cases.

Japan is not an outlier - it`s an out and out liar.
So, what do you think happened in Japan and China? People dying by the millions? Millions of dead bodies burnt secretly? Do you ever cremate a family member? I have, took like a good 4-6 hours for the whole process. I guess china is so good that not only the can build hospital in 10 days, they can burn hundred thousands of bodies without any smoke or any prove.
 
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Germany even keeps taking (small doeses) of Corona patients from other countries, three days ago it was another 200. A member of my family has colleagues at a larger hospital in a bigger city and while they have made preparations for an onslaught they barely seem to have to handle any critical cases thus far. Despite afaik doing the most tests per capita in Europe we have 70k active cases and before the crisis were listed with 28k ICU beds and 25k ventilators. I think thus far our health services just haven't really been tested by the Virus yet, at least in comparison to the UK with 42k active cases and apparently 6k ventilators for the NHS.
I love Germany man, used to live in Minden, and if anyone was gonna make a “success” of this it was you guys, think everyone would have put their mortgage on that.

I still wonder how you have so many serious/critical yet so few daily deaths, are you doing something better than other health services? The UK aren’t overwhelmed yet and they are still losing a much higher rate of critically ill.

Unless the critically ill numbers on worldometers are just incorrect for Germany.
 
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cyberman

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The future has to be looked at and potential situations that may rise.

The cold hard reality is, lockdown for any serious length of time can't happen, it will cost too many lives. If for argument sake we can close down the world for around a year/until this virus dies or mutates to low risk and still have a healthy situation to come out of it, ofcourse I'd be firmly on board with it no matter what but that won't be the case.


Okay then, let's say for argument sake we lock down till the virus either completely dies or heads to very low risk, and for further argument sake let's say that takes a year.

The world reopens with 60% of businesses gone (and let's be clear, that's a wildly optimistic estimate), who pays the taxes that keep the NHS running? Who pays the taxes that keep the many many families who can't find a job because there are none fed?

And I'm not "apathetic" about the deaths that will occur, not least because at some point a lockdown will actually start causing more deaths in the moment too, get to that in a second. I've already said I'm on board with the measures at the minute, it's just not remotely sustainable for this to be a long term thing. Even factoring out the devastating long term effects, hospitals will at some point while the virus is still prelevant be inundated with patients who attempt suicide, are victims of domestic violence, come into complication due to severe stess etc (all of those things are going up already) and that will keep rising further while the country are on house arrest, what will that do? Further take away staff from Covid areas, take more ventilators so someone with the virus will be denied it, in others words totally defeating the object of lock down in the first place.

I want in a perfect world no lives lost atall but tragically that's not possible, so the next best thing is as many lives saved as humanly possible, a lock down for any serious amount of time won't be how that's achieved.

I fully agree with the measures presently because at this moment in time they are protecting the NHS and saving lives, but it will get to a point where it starts doing the complete opposite, not just in the long run but the immediate present as explained above.
Its impossible to look too far into the future, we are still catching up to the virus and we need to analyse it to a greater degree before knowing our next move.
What happens if immunity lasts a few months? What damage does it leave and would the danger be greater to younger people second time around?
This isnt a Brexit strategy where we can negotiate with it, if we dont get a hold on this then millions could die from waves that seems to travel in close cycles to each other if they are indeed worried about winter reinfections.
The way we live our life has changed until we get a vaccine, its just how it is.
That is the cold hard fact.
 

Dancfc

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Its impossible to look too far into the future, we are still catching up to the virus and we need to analyse it to a greater degree before knowing our next move.
What happens if immunity lasts a few months? What damage does it leave and would the danger be greater to younger people second time around?
This isnt a Brexit strategy where we can negotiate with it, if we dont get a hold on this then millions could die from waves that seems to travel in close cycles to each other if they are indeed worried about winter reinfections.
The way we live our life has changed until we get a vaccine, its just how it is.
That is the cold hard fact.
I very much agree things can't get totally back to normal for quite some time, I have not once argued against that.

The part I'm contesting is that this level of lockdown is sustainable, it just isn't. A medium has to be found somewhere and I don't envy the person tasked with finding it.
 

Sky1981

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For people who thinks government lied about their number, they should really look beyond simple numbers.

Why is it impossible for "ANY" government in the world to come up with a correct number:
1. Test kit isn't 100%
2. There are people that choose not to go to hospital and get tested / treated, and before we blame them you need to know that you can step a foot into the NHS and never comes out again, it's not an easy steps to take.
3. There are people died before getting tested, while academically we need to know the cause of why they die it's not economically and time efficient to bother with the dead. We barely have enough resources for the living.
4. The Coordination of data, there are hundreds if not thousands of death occuring at one time it's a data collection nightmare even for the most advance country. Numbers are probably lagging behind. Paperwork no matter how little has to be filled, and when there's hundred deaths in a day it could take a toll.
5. There are other priorities for NHS rather than giving the dead extra time. My pastor who died from COVID can't even get a proper burial, no last bath, no last rite.
6. There are thousands of people involved in those data. Nurse/Doctors/head of hospital/clerks/city council/family members etc. These are real people with relatives we're talking about. If they die their relatives will know, will check with the hospital, and there's little room for them to be swept under the rug. You can't just erase John and Jane from the dead list. People will check.
7. Test kit are precious, yes not everybody who feels a light wobble can get tested in some poorer countries. They prioritise those that are clearly bordering on serious symptoms as proper testing needs time and resources. So there will be confusion in the field. Should we categorize those that complains chest pain as Corona? Or Something else? Would that classify as underreporting? Or sane reporting?
8. Unless your country is a masochist I doubt they'd gonna be successfully swepting deaths under the rug. Even if you don't believe certain government these are real human being losing their loved ones. The people involved will not keep quiet if this indeed happens. Can you imagine Japanese doctors/officials all play along with this evil scheme?
9. There are communities watching them, there's the press, there's scholars, there are police, morticians, gravediggers, you can't really hushed up people dying by the dozens. The numbers we see in the websites is the culminations of tens of steps verified by hundreds of people.
 

Foxbatt

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The reason why Asian countries get people to wear the mask is to protect the public. If everyone wears a mask that person infecting others would decrease a lot. That way it's controlled and the community spread is also controlled.
The mask is not to stop other person getting it usually. I really don't understand why health officials come out and say so. Health workers need the FfP2 masks which are respirators.
If everyone wears a mask this is going to get control a lot sooner.
 

Sarni

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3 weeks of lockdown here and people are already acting stupid. Lots are rebelling against rules saying it’s just a glorified flu and more people die in car accidents, without understanding how the curve works. Also most seem to be in love with Sweden approach saying it works amazingly even though it doesn’t. As I said before, in a couple of months you will have to use some force to keep people at home.
 

do.ob

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I love Germany man, used to live in Minden, and if anyone was gonna make a “success” of this it was you guys, think everyone would have put their mortgage on that.

I still wonder how you have so many serious/critical yet so few daily deaths, are you doing something better than other health services? The UK aren’t overwhelmed yet and they are still losing a much higher rate of critically ill.

Unless the critically ill numbers on worldometers are just incorrect for Germany.
Are you sure about the situation in the UK?
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/03/world/europe/uk-national-health-service.html

Maybe you understand a bit of German, here is an article about how Germany has 9000 free ICU beds with another 8400 available within 24h and a central system to manage capacities and patient allocation efficiently. That has to count for something. Anecdotally I also heard before the crisis that some of our hospitals are very eager to ventilate patients who are all but gone anyway, if there is some wider truth to that maybe our personnel has wider experience with the kind of care that corona cases require.
I wouldn't say our politicians reacted super quick, but once Italy gave everyone a stern warning Merkel came out with decisive language and said that 70% could catch it and that this will be the biggest challenge since WW2, maybe that made the most vulnerable, for whom the virus is most lethal take better precautions than their UK counterparts and their enviroment.

https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/coronavirus-kliniken-anzahl-betten-1.4865776
 
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Are you sure about the situation in the UK?
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/03/world/europe/uk-national-health-service.html

Maybe you understand a bit of German, here is an article about how Germany has 9000 free ICU beds with another 8400 available within 24h and a central system to manage capacities and patient allocation efficiently. That has to count for something.
I wouldn't say our politicians reacted super quick, but once Italy gave everyone a stern warning Merkel came out with decisive language and said that 70% could catch it and that this will be the biggest challenge since WW2, maybe that made the most vulnerable, for whom the virus is most lethal take better precautions than their UK counterparts and their enviroment.

https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/coronavirus-kliniken-anzahl-betten-1.4865776
Wasn’t the UK report from last Jan?

Wouldn’t surprise me if the German’s are just better, but it’d be nice to know how they are better.

Obviously they are miles better prepared with their health services and ICU capacity than any other country in Europe, which should come as a shock to no-one.
 

do.ob

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Wasn’t the UK report from last Jan?

Wouldn’t surprise me if the German’s are just better, but it’d be nice to know how they are better.

Obviously they are miles better prepared with their health services and ICU capacity than any other country in Europe, which should come as a shock to no-one.
Haha you're right, I looked for a quick update and didn't check the date. My mistake. Still does look good for the current crisis though if the system got overloaded during regular flu season.
I wouldn't heap too much praise on the German system, having such an excessive amount of ICU beds was probably as much mismanagement as it was human kindness.
 

Dante

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Are you sure about the situation in the UK?
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/03/world/europe/uk-national-health-service.html

Maybe you understand a bit of German, here is an article about how Germany has 9000 free ICU beds with another 8400 available within 24h and a central system to manage capacities and patient allocation efficiently. That has to count for something. Anecdotally I also heard before the crisis that some of our hospitals are very eager to ventilate patients who are all but gone anyway, if there is some wider truth to that maybe our personnel has wider experience with the kind of care that corona cases require.
I wouldn't say our politicians reacted super quick, but once Italy gave everyone a stern warning Merkel came out with decisive language and said that 70% could catch it and that this will be the biggest challenge since WW2, maybe that made the most vulnerable, for whom the virus is most lethal take better precautions than their UK counterparts and their enviroment.

https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/coronavirus-kliniken-anzahl-betten-1.4865776
The UK is expecting 18,000 ventilators by the end of the week. And it's built extra hospitals in key locations (including one of the largest in the world in London) which have yet to be used.

There's still plenty of capacity in terms of facilities. It's the doctors and nurses who are in short supply. But we've had 750,000 people volunteer to help the NHS so hopefully that will help.