Yup.
I think when the dust settles in 6 months or so, most countries will have suffered plenty of loss. The ones who suffer the worst will be the poorer countries and the one who let their health services get annihilated.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
I think when the dust settles in 6 months or so, most countries will have suffered plenty of loss. The ones who suffer the worst will be the poorer countries and the one who let their health services get annihilated.
Did you have a head start though?
We’ll never know the stats of infected per country on say 9th March but I think you were likely riddled with it in UK after half term.
yes we did
How do you know that?
How many infected in UK on 9th March when Italy shut down the country?
If you shut down then, how do you know you wouldn’t have had as many cases and deaths now? Italy has still barely slowed down over one month since then.
And what’s stopping you getting large numbers of deaths again after lockdown?
Sadly, I agree. These daily updates right now are also unhelpful imo.
Wummy should also ask himself why the French numbers are so horrific when they went into lockdown just 8 days after Italy?
I really don’t think many countries had the headstart people believe they had.
In what way? The coverage of the UK death toll is everywhere. Lots of tragic individual cases, deaths of nurses etc being highlighted.
I have to say that your figures are surprising. you have more hospital deaths in 24h than France ever had and in terms of hospital deaths you have overtaken France today with 8598 for France and 8958 for the UK.
No one even talks about Hancock promising 100,000 tests or Boris Johnson promising mass testing again.
The press in the country have been a disgrace for years now but this episode has taken the cake.
The press in the country have been a disgrace for years now but this episode has taken the cake.
I don’t really get what you’re saying.
Countries that went into lockdown have clearly been able to flatten the curve. That is obvious.
Maybe it would be better to compare Sweden with other Scandinavian countries (with whom they share the climate and culture). Sweden has 870 deaths, Norway has 113 (only 13% deaths compared to Sweden in 52% as big population). Denmark has 247 deaths (28% deaths in 55% population). Adjusted per capita, for every Norwegian dying, 4 Swedish die. For every Dane dying, 2 Swedish die.
Furthermore, if we check today, there were 77 deaths in Sweden, 10 in Denmark and 5 in Norway. Not much data, but it does not look like Sweden is a week ahead of Norway and Denmark are a week, more like that they might have different curves.
Of course, at the end of the day, if they can manage to limit the daily deaths at only 50-100 day, it might be argued that it is a price worth paying. It would be just 18k-35k deaths per year (with many of those people dying anyway from other causes). But if it becomes worse, then it is a very serious problem, especially if they see their neighbours doing much better.
4 weeks after lockdown Italy was still getting 5000 cases and 800 deaths.
So why do you think your numbers now should be better given the headstart? If you’d lockdown 4 weeks ago on 13th March you’d likely be getting the same numbers because the virus had come back from half term and had weeks to circulate around the UK.
He mentioned the 100,000 tests earlier before going on to say that lots of tests have been organised for frontline NHS staff.
It was fairly cleverly worded as he introduced it with the 100k number before saying something vaguely positive about how many tests are sorted but it was clear as day it wasn’t 100k and obviously nobody is going to chase him on it.
The most annoying thing about these conferences is the 12 minute soap box questions the journos ask.
Italy's peak was 919 deaths, the UK had today 980 deaths. The UK has a slightly higher population, so if we assume that today is UK's peak, then yes, it would be similar. If the increase in UK continues for another few days (and I believe that is gonna happen, considering the effects of lockdowns are not imminent) then it will become worse than Italy (probably tracking Spain adjusted per capita).
To be fair, Italy was hit first. The rest (especially the UK and France in Europe; and the US obviously) should and could have done much better. If in the end, they finish with more deaths (per capita) than Italy, while having 2 extra weeks to prepare, it is a total failure of their governments (add to that, Italy has a significantly older population than the UK, more people live with their parents, so their population in average is more prone to dying from covid-19)
Obviously you can compare to Scandinavia @Revan but then I’d argue not to compare the most populous city that had half term in the Italy horror week and instead compare Gothenburg with Copenhagen and Oslo, cities that had half term earlier and similar populations.
49 deaths in Gothenburg state so far.
Just comparing all of Sweden to a neighbour is incredibly unscientific as we’ll never know how many infected all countries had when all kicked off in early March.
Might as well compare New York to Massachusetts.
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RAB with his notifications on the word “Sweden”
Ok not played down as such but it just seems it isnt so shocking anymore. Which I guess is natural as it's a more common thing as we progress its jus sad. I'm literally scared today I cant see a way out of this without a vaccine.
Can I do that.
Seriously though, there has been so much negative press regarding Sweden, completely ignoring how well we have done compared to say Belgium, Holland, Switzerland. Even fexking Trump is getting in on it, the cheek of the fuxker
But as I said above, even those comparisons are pointless as we’ll never ever know how countries infected rate looked when Italy kicked off.
Could quite easily be that Belgium had 10 times the infected Sweden did on 9th March.
How many people do you think were coming back from half term in Italy?
shutting down clearly has an impact on the spread of the disease. Hence Italy now limiting transition.We should have shut down earlier, having Cheltenham, Stereophonics and Anfield marches was shambolic
Disgusting that stuff like this isn’t being asked - they are getting a free pass at the moment and when Boris returns he will be treated like a messiah
Yeah, if only Stereophonics didn’t perform in front of 5,000 people in Cardiff. The virus never would have spread this badly. Ah well, it’s all handbags and gladrags now anyway.
A single music event like that infecting twenty people could be catastrophic down the line.
I'm not sure Sweden is a great comparison for many countries. Correct me if i'm wrong but lots of parts of it are quite remote outside of some southern cities? Not a tourist hotspot like Spain and Italy or even Greece i would think.
I think every country is going to have to tailor their plan to their own people, culture and geography. Its hard to judge from the outside.
Ireland has been relatively careful. Made the same mistake as every other country of not preparing for this but between Brexit and a General Election i can symphatise that it was easy enough to be distracted. Our health system has been badly underfunded for a long time at this stage so if there is a flare up I don't expect it to cope easily or especially well. So it makes sense to play it safe at least initially. I'm happy enough with the recent decisions and won't hold it against the government (that we dont technically have atm) if the numbers turn. Its a danger but they've tried to minimise it as best they can seemingly.
Putting together a step by step guide of what precisly we need to do if (when) this situation comes up again should be a prioirty. Getting a signficiant stock of masks and other ppe equipment before they lift restrictions would be my hope at this stage.
I hope you're right mate. Personally I thought that with the measures being put in place we'd be fine as long as we'd get over the worst of the pandemic within the 3 months as initially hoped for. But the last week or so has shown that might be an optimistic prediction at best.
3 months, not a chance.
6 days to go from 50k to 100K deaths. Doubling worldwide each 6 days could mean that by the end of the month could be half a million deaths or more
I just found it funny how you specifically mentioned the Stereophonics gig, even though five days earlier basically every football ground in the UK was full to the brim with people. But it was this one specific Stereophonics gig in Cardiff in front of 5,000 that was ‘catastrophic‘.
They took one of my neighbours in an ambulance earlier. Since there are no cars on the road the ambulances are silent. I only noticed the light through the window. In the end they spent ages pressure washing the front of the door and their steps to the vehicle.
UK went into lockdown on 23rd of March
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51892402
14th of March
"Herd immunity is not part of our action plan, but is a natural by-product of an epidemic. Our aims are to save lives, protect the most vulnerable, and relieve pressure on our NHS," he said. "
Lockdowns
UK was 335 deaths, France was at 342 deaths, Spain ~200. There's 1-2 days in from 200-300.
You could propose a country like UK France Spain lockdown at 5 deaths, 20 deaths, 50 deaths. In the end UK followed what others were doing and there was too much made of headlines.
It is probably much more than that. Large but poor countries like India, Bangladesh or Indonesia and many African countries might have significantly more deaths than officially confirmed.
So the initial 3 week lockdown of the UK will end Monday, can't see any official statement with regards to extending it yet? Why would they leave it so late to announce an extension?
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Will be interesting to see the care home deaths for UK
France has 4599 care home deaths and 8958 hospital deaths. France has about 50% of care home deaths of the hospital deaths.
This article has a snapshot of care home deaths and is suggesting in the UK most deaths are in the hospitals as most people in care homes will be taken to hospital. That might not be the case in France and in Spain care homes were shockingly abandoned. France's lower hospital numbers might just be much less people in care homes taken to hospital and died there instead.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52196978
UK might have care home deaths in 4-10% range of hospital deaths but we''ll have to see in the coming weeks and months how this pans out.
Had France taken more perhaps the hospital deaths would be often in the 800-900 range or even 1000-1200+ range as France has had multiple combined 1300-1400 deaths in 24hr figures.
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That maths just blew my mind.
He told people specifically not to visit elderly relatives then drove 40 miles to do just that. Politicians should know better. And the second incident shows utter contempt for ordinary people. You advise everyone to stay put then you stay put rather than head to the country for Easter. Not like he will be meeting constituents F2F. And NHS workers staying somewhere to do their job isn't equivalent as he had no justifiable need to travel.
Similar issues in Australia have resulted in fines and resignation.
https://www.google.com/amp/amp.abc.net.au/article/12141532
It will last much longer than that.
I hope so.
Difficult to strike the right balance between -
A: factual reporting
B: asking the right questions of the right people
C: unnecessarily creating worry/panic with the public.
It really just seems to me that the reporting ethos has taken a different direction.
I think you need to get off your high horse and stop claiming that poorer countries are under reporting deaths.
They are facing the same challenges richer countries do in terms of testing not being available to everyone and shortage of ppe equipment to physicians because richer countries are competing for the same commodities.
If they can't track the death toll, the errors are going to be in proportion to elsewhere and not higher just because they're poor.
Of course they are. Little or no testing and poor data collecting are inevitable and then if medical facilities become overwhelmed it won't get better. So the errors won't be in proportion to developed nations.