Explain then to me how India and Indonesia, who combined have twice the population of EU + US somehow have 100 times less deaths? 2 countries where applying social distancing for a large part of the population is impossible, where on large parts of the countries hygiene is a privilege that the majority cannot apply and whom have weak medical systems.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
The police in some areas are starting to grate aswell.
Nothing being done about flights still coming in from at risk areas but walking in the peak district, buying booze (which a lot of people need to get through the day at the best of times let alone now) or sitting down at a distance and the dicks are out.
Maybe instead of putting dye into the Blue Lagoon resources would be better spend making sure people flying in from New York actually go into quarentine.
A lot of people are unprepared to understand this. It took Wuhan near to three months to get unlocked (and it was a more severe lockdown than anything we have seen elsewhere) and they started the lockdown with 400 'official' cases. Most of the European countries started it with thousands of cases (or tens of thousands in the US). It was always going to happen quite longer than three weeks, heck it is more or less guaranteed that it is gonna be extended again.
I will be happy if in June/July we will have some form of normality (when most of people can go back to work, there is some travelling between states, and of course intensive testing). But I don't expect to open again, until the number of new daily cases drops to two digits.
They don't have as much mobility of people abroad like Europe where clusters of people caught the virus from skiing trips or even a connection to Chinese manufacturing that brings people from the infected clusters into their population. They also happened to implement social distancing at an early enough stage.
They also have some semblance of government sponsored health care albeit not something as robust as the Scandinavian nations or the NHS.
You could argue that USA where the majority of the population is uninsured and where health insurance is tied to a full time job that people are losing in record numbers right now could have the same underreporting issues.
At the end of the day testing isn't something they cannot afford, it's just not reliable or available in large enough numbers like elsewhere and given their population density and sheer number of people, the errors are going to be proportionately higher.
Dude, there are regions in these countries that have an extremely high density, cities with 10+ million people.
I thought that India started the lockdown only two weeks ago. And good luck practicing social distancing when 3 generation families live together, and where entire regions have problems with not having water. The standard of hygiene in these countries is much lower than in the Western countries.
So sure that it is gonna be an extreme under-reporting. We had under-reporting in France, where elderly were dying in elderly houses and not being counted, but somehow it is being in high horse to think that on India, or Nigeria or Bangladesh there won't be extreme cases of under-reporting. We saw Lombardy's system being overwhelmed, but God forbid if someone imagines that the same might have happened in Somalia.
The claim that any of those countries might have a better medical system than the US is downright idiotic.
So your assumption is basically that they must be dying because they are poor. You fail to account that they happened to have the foresight to close borders early, implement testing and quarantine at airports and implemented social distancing before the virus took hold there.
Even if all that is true, the number of deaths will still be reported properly and the all cause mortality will spike even if they're not treated and classified as covid 19 deaths.
I don't know about you but I personally don't see mass graves bring reported in South Asia or Africa like they are reporting in New York, Lombardi or Madrid.
Even in Europe. Countries that had been hit hard can't keep up with the living, less with the death. In Spain, if you die but you had not been tested, you are not counted as victim of COVID
But of course I am talking on official numbers. As those countries you mention start to kick off, numbers will be less and less reliable. In a month can be a huge humanitarian disaster with all the developed countries not only not being able to spare resources but competing with them for them. Hope their young population can take the hit
Dude, even if they are not testing or treating at a comparable rate, the all cause mortality and deaths would have spiked if there are indeed people dying. These countries for all their faults aren't communist China or Iran to hide things under the rug.
Sure, the number of deaths is higher than reported in essentially every country. And the more people die, the more the number is gonna be under-reported. And the less developed a country is, the more the number of deaths (and infections) is gonna be under-reported.
The true number of deaths won't be estimated until a few years from now. And it is gonna be very ugly for the less developed countries.
And neither are famous for being very precise in their population statistics. Let's not pretend that an 80 years old dying in a slum in Nairobi somehow is gonna make into the official statistics, when the government doesn't even have a clear idea of the number of people living there.
Cool so the count is off by one 80 year old in Nairobi.
Or 10 thousand for all we know. But to think somehow that not developed countries, where a large part of the population lives in slum and another large part not being much better, where a large part of the population do not have clean water, and where the medical system is almost non-existent are gonna do better than Europe or the US is more wishful thinking than based on reality.
I wonder how the reporting worked well during the ebola crisis then.
Switzerland is near other hardly hit regions like the Lombardy, the Alsace and thr German South West who although has a lot higher numbers like the German North.Can I do that.
Seriously though, there has been so much negative press regarding Sweden, completely ignoring how well we have done compared to say Belgium, Holland, Switzerland. Even fexking Trump is getting in on it, the cheek of the fuxker
But as I said above, even those comparisons are pointless as we’ll never ever know how countries infected rate looked when Italy kicked off.
Could quite easily be that Belgium had 10 times the infected Sweden did on 9th March.
Belgium, the Netherlands - similar story bordering France.
If you e.g. look at Germany, apart from e.g. a nursing home with many deaths in Wolfsburg the harder hit areas are in the West, South West and South!
Ebola was nowhere as infectious as this disease. Easy to report well when you have 1000 ill people than when you might have a hundred thousand.
Even if you go by the numbers you just pulled out of your behind, if there's indeed 100k infections at 1% mortality rate, there would be 1000 people dead of it.
No matter how bumfeck of a country there is, a 1000 deaths don't just go unnoticed.
1000 deaths in a city like Karachi or Nairobi (where the vast majority of them are old) can definitely go un-noticed. Heck, it is quite possible that Western countries have a few thousand covid-19 related deaths more than they think they have.
That's a bit of a stretch, especially considering 1000 deaths would necessarily be accompanied by tens of thousands of sick people. I don't know a lot about Karachi, but there's no way something like that would go unnoticed in Nairobi.
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Wait, you mean people flying in from New York aren't put on quarantine? Why not?! It's the obvious thing to do!
No. My assumption based on sound logic that testing and reporting will be worse in developing nations as it already is.
That may contribute to deaths because yiu won't be able to track cases and identify infection hotspots in a timely manner. However, how fast they lock down and how well social distancing is observed will also be huge factors, as will be the state of medical services.
You only have to look to Ecuador to see how easily things can overwhelm services.
The other big factor in many developing nations is that living density is often very high, particularly for poorer people, and far from everyone has a home to retreat to.
And this is far from the end of this crisis. I fear we will see catastrophic outcomes in some developing nations and also in some developed nations e.g. Sweden. The UK US's responses has not been good and I think they both may oay a massive price.
There are likely over 1000 deaths in UK nursing homes thst are so far unreported.
When I lived in UAE a dry dock failed killing over 120 foreign workers (I knew the head nurse on duty that night who tracked the body count). The papers were told to report 12 deaths and that was all that ever became public.
I'm not saying 1000 (or any specific number) of deaths have occured but governments can often minimise reporting of what happens especially when the dead are poor.
Badly. Foreign NGO's provided most of the near real time data. And governments wanted western help so they were more concerned about publicising the issue than they were about keeping panic to a minimum.
All countries are struggling to make responses proportionate but the UK seems to be doing especially badly. The herd immunity fiasco seems to have set the tone.
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Yeah, it could happen. That's different to what @Revan was saying though, which is that it may have already happened in several developing countries - a comment that I assume was based on nothing, going by the poor choice of examples of countries. It's easier to cover up one tragic event that killed foreigners who likely had no families/connections in the country. Also it's easier to tinker with the numbers when the disease has already spread in the population as you can just present some totality stat that you could say subsumes the cases/deaths people are witnessing. But you can't convincingly lie about the death toll due to Covid 19 being zero or in single digits while covering up thousands of deaths and tens of thousands of infections.
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"If they don't get the summer in the Hamptons, who cares?"
I think it is highly likely that it is ripping through some developing nations and is being hugely under-reported. Of course if it gets really bad with bodies in the streets, as is already happening in Ecuador, it can't he hidden or meaningfully under-reported.
That's my point. It would be visible like it's in Ecuador. This illness hospitalises close to 20% of infected people. It's not something that hides well at all. It maybe possible to massage the numbers when they are big, what you guys are suggesting doesn't seem very likely at all.
I know, I actually wrote in the post you quoted that it’s pointless to compare countries. But people appear desperate to make these utterly unscientific comparisons.
Many in here originally said Sweden would be the next Spain or Italy but now the goalposts have moved and they instead want to compare Sweden v Norway or Denmark but have no answer as to why then Gothenburg is less or similarly affected so far than similar sized cities, Olso & Copenhagen.
It’s easy to take from that, that Stockholm had more infected when it all kicked off, but that’s also completely unscientific, we will never know.
I’ve argued all along since we let it spread uncontrollably through Europe, don’t overwhelm your health system and you’ve done a good job. Keep it from nursing homes and you’ve done incredible job.
Looking at the data, most countries were already massively infected before even Italy locked down. Certain hot spots in each country took the burden of it.
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Istanbul alone accounts for the vast majority of cases in the country. When you allow a single urban area to have a population of 16 million, you're asking for trouble.
The sad thing for them is that this has now distracted them from focusing on an event that experts are predicting and that could actually kill hundreds of thousands (if not millions) with relative ease - an earthquake. Might sound dramatic but they had a small one not so long ago and it set the alarm bells ringing. That city is a disaster waiting to happen.
You know what? I’d almost forgotten about this already. It’s incredible that someone actually thought that was a good idea and a solution to absolutely anything!
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/coronatestar-alla-gravida-pa-forlossningen-sju-procent-smittade
@Pogue Mahone & @massi83 will be interested in this.
Karolinska have tested all women coming into to give birth over the past 2 weeks and 7% were positive. Same again here, the virus only grows well in the lab if taken within first 5 days, so after that time it’s very difficult to get a positive test. (For those with no or mild symptoms).
@Pogue Mahone & @massi83 will be interested in this.
Karolinska have tested all women coming into to give birth over the past 2 weeks and 7% were positive. Same again here, the virus only grows well in the lab if taken within first 5 days, so after that time it’s very difficult to get a positive test. (For those with no or mild symptoms).
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The government have made many huge mistakes, hence the highest daily death toll in Europe. Let's see when they start talking about some pimped up version of herd immunity again.
The names and evidence in that article all ring true against the government's initial bollocks stance. They thoroughly proved their capabilities to act on completely ridiculous assumptions that fit with what they want to hear, don't see what evidence there is that they've suddenly become competent scientists.
Yep, you’d think the way some of these guys are talking that these countries were under a complete dictatorship and had no access to social media, telephones or internet.
Also appears to be a failure to account for the fact the exposure in these places will be far less (at this point in time) than places like Italy, England and Spain for obvious reasons.
The smaller and more isolated towns in general are seeing far less cases but for some reason the theory is that in these same places in Africa there are thousands of 80 year olds laying dead unaccounted for.
Thanks, was in the news here yesterday already. 7% tells us nothing though, as this subset visits hospitals and other places more, so are more likely to get the infection.
But yeah 5 days on average makes sense, if mild cases are detected for only 2-3 days. If mild cases are detected for 5 days and severe cases for up to 2 weeks then 5 days on average is incorrect. They might also over-estimate the amount of asymptomatic people, and therefore under-estimate the time period when it can be detected on average.
Yeah, this was good stuff, I watched the whole 35min interview.
"If they don't get the summer in the Hamptons, who cares?"
Could just be a case of watch this space with some countries. I hope it isn't but fear it is on its way.
I don't imagine that maternity areas of hospitals are of a much higher risk than travelling on the Stockholm tube, or is there evidence I'm wrong there? We haven't even allowed any virus of flu like symptoms into the emergency waiting room here in the past month, there are special virus emergency entrances/tents.
Other places likely to have much covid-19? What are those? The mid-wife? Why would that be an increased risk?
With all due respect I very much doubt one of most prestigious medical universities in the world (Karolinska) is making any significant under-estimates.
I thought this was debunked? It's something they do every year isn't it, due to the toxicity of the water?
With all due respect, you think this small sample of specific subset (7%) is better than a bigger random sample (2.5%). That is only because you want it to be true. It is not how statistics and probabilities work.
You think Swedes are god, I understand that. Everybody makes mistakes here, Germans, Finns, Swedes everybody, it isn't impossible. If you provide me with a link where they break-down how they calculate the 5 days, I can take a look and probably agree with it. But there are so many things we don't know, that mistakes are obviously possible. That is why it is better to have sources from 5-10 countries, not just 1, whether Sweden, Ger, SKorea or elsewhere.