Not much love for him/his comment in the replies
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
There should be an inquiry in every single country, not just the UK. I think there will be too.
An inquiry isn't about attributing blame though, it's about identifying areas for improvement. Some will go hand in hand but that's not an inquiries purpose. Never has been.
I know. It's pathetic how people can't just make these sacrifices. Literally zero self control for some.
For what it's worth, I think the blame lies a lot more with doctors (specific members of the class) rather than governments. Those "experts" in Sweden that @Regulus Arcturus Black keeps banging about are a lot more to blame than the Swedish government of course, whose members have no competence in this area and rely on proper advice.
Yeah, should we start blaming medical doctors for not being able to cure all patients? Sounds ridiculous right? Just as ridiculous as expecting scientists to have all the answers.
Who said anything about not being able to cure? I'm not talking about clinical doctors.
You may start by blaming the ones who are paid to actually pay attention to pandemics. Some of these were vacationing in cruise ships by mid-March. They are the ones who should have warned the authorities, and, failing that, put external pressure on them through the media.
In Portugal, The National Council for Public Health (which advises the government on these issues) were completely against containment measures by our Government. These are our public health specialists for fecks sake. They were cast aside (never heard of them again for a few weeks) obviously, but their negligent inaction won't be forgotten.
Meanwhile, in South Korea the same people spent the last few years helping the government to prepare for a possible pandemic like this.
Last edited:
What exactly do people really expect from the response in being much different?
No country in the world is ever properly prepared for a pandemic, especially Western countries.
East Asia in general has done better because its ingrained in their entire society to wear face masks, go back to January in the U.K when some people here were concerned and began to wear them, they were being shamed online (some in this thread)
As for PPE, most countries were at the mercy of China (in equipment and truth) who were hoarding from December to February.
In future to be better prepared for single nation responses de-globalisation and a increase in protectionism would be needed if thats the route people want to go down..
No country in the world is ever properly prepared for a pandemic, especially Western countries.
East Asia in general has done better because its ingrained in their entire society to wear face masks, go back to January in the U.K when some people here were concerned and began to wear them, they were being shamed online (some in this thread)
As for PPE, most countries were at the mercy of China (in equipment and truth) who were hoarding from December to February.
In future to be better prepared for single nation responses de-globalisation and a increase in protectionism would be needed if thats the route people want to go down..
Yep, the main purpose of any inquiry should be to come up with recommendations to improve things. I just framed it as a way of attributing blame/responsibility to government in the context of the prior posts about current government approval ratings.
Yeah I understand that. I just don't like the singling out of the UK as it seems agenda driven (not by you). Every country has something to learn from this and an inquiry into the overall global response needs to take place when the time is right.
It’ll be the normal ‘We’ve appointed his lordship Judge Rumpletrousers to carry out a 12 year investigation costing £10m which will discover that all the politicians who are no longer in power might have make a few decisions differently but probably did ok considering they’re his golfing buddies’.
Not really sure what you mean by people going on cruises. To be honest I am not really sure who or what you are referring to, and which country.
I am of the opinion that whilst the pandemic is ongoing, it is rather stupid to assign blame to anyone, any group or any government. I'd much rather first get over the pandemic and then once the dust has settled and people have had time to grieve, only then look for answers. Everyone is far too impatient and emotional right now, and there is also still a need to collect and study present and future data before any rational observations can be made.
I edited my post to provide more info. I'm talking about Portugal, a country were things are going comparatively well in relation to our wealthier neighbours, and one of the first countries in Europe to impose measures. I think we were negligent here, let alone countries like UK, US and others.
And yes, I'm talking about after the pandemic. Try following a bit of the ongoing discussion before jumping to conclusions after a single post.
Using the same rules that have been thrust upon us is it really an essential thing to do at this point when 20 flights from New York are coming in a day.
The UK is singled out, because a) this is the board of an English club meaning Brits probably make up the largest user group and b) because of the numbers and reports like this one: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ropes-worst-hit-by-coronavirus-study-predicts
Been posted here before but if true (and to be fair, Reuters report and seems to be laying out facts rather than making their own conclusions), I'd expect some significant changes in policies and processes g/fwd. The only positive I am trying to take out of this situation is the hope that the world learns some lessons.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-britain-path-speci-idUSKBN21P1VF
No you arent. You have already jumped to the conclusion that your health board was negligent. That isn't waiting til the pandemic is over is it?
Includes "Prof Neil Ferguson, of Imperial College London, said the IHME figures on “healthcare demand” – including hospital bed use and deaths – were twice as high as they should be."
Given the ICL are held in high regard by pretty much everyone (their data showed initial UK stance/herd immunity was not the right thing to do?), I'd probably take their views over t'other... and in the midst of a global pandemic, I wouldn't expect media to sensationalise in the same way I'd expect media to ask some better questions of the Govt at the moment.
EDIT.
The article also says "The IHME modelling forecasts that by 4 August the UK will see a total of 66,314 deaths – an average taken from a large estimate range of between 14,572 and 219,211 deaths, indicating the uncertainties around it." So by their own figures, it could be the bottom end which would (already) be under some other European countries. But that doesn't stop a clickbait headline in the midst of a pandemic. Irresponsible
I get media (and people) have political slants but now's not the time for this type of headline. The story is fine (ish)
Last edited:
Do you write for a UK red top? Jesus.
Why would it be relevant to ask his opinion on immigrant workers? Fact is, they are here legally and doing a fine job. Thats exactly the sort of question that should not be asked at this time. Questions should be asked about the coronavirus situtaion, not about government immigration policy. How about education policy, or transport policy. All it does is cloud the matter at hand.
Lets all stay focussed on covid during the q and a and dissect the knock on issues afterwards
If you think you will be able to go to concerts/pubs/football games while thousands of people are dying from coronavirus, well you are wrong. Restaurants and bars may open with limited capacity, shopping malls will definitely have to open within the next 3 months but it will be a long time before everything is back to as it was in 2019 and before.
I think this a common feature in many countries, and I hope we'll find out why the experts on this matter underestimated the threat to such a degree. It seems like the models they were using for potential spread stem from the era of horse & cart travel. The Norwegian experts, as late as February 25th, estimated that we would have less than 100 confirmed cases before Easter. Fortunately, the government took charge of the situation.
Something that has been of interest so far. Hancock and the medical officers have been banging on about the accuracy of the tests since the start. Does anyone know the accuracy of the tests other countries have been running?
Im sure i have read that some tests from china have been in accurate and sent to other countries. Germany are widely regarded as been the best at testing, are their tests all made in house as it were, and what rate of accuracy do they have..?
Im sure i have read that some tests from china have been in accurate and sent to other countries. Germany are widely regarded as been the best at testing, are their tests all made in house as it were, and what rate of accuracy do they have..?
Stopping flights at this point would have a rather limited effect, I'd imagine, as well as some negative secondary effects.
The overwhelming majority of flights have been cancelled already, some flights are still essential, many flights will consist of UK citizens returning home as part of the government's repatriation efforts and the damage any infected people on that flight can do is severely limited by the lockdown measures that are already in place in the UK due to the widespread infections already present.
The UK aren't particularly unusual in this regard, I think. Ireland are certainly still allowing flights and even a country like Italy was allowing flights when it introduced its lockdown. Flight restrictions may be effective before the virus is widespread within a country or once internal infections have been brought under control but at the UK's current point I suspect it sounds like a better idea than it actually is.
I *think* they added in positive results from key worker tests. I'm guessing these were spread over a number of days but got lumped together yesterday and came to 3k+ overall.
All sorts of corners have been cut, including proper validation. True for the RNA based tests and even worse for the antibody tests just coming out. Bottom line, I wouldn't trust any comparisons just yet. They need some WHO standard samples for that.
On an earlier page (I can't keep up with it), someone said Worldometers was not a good site for accuracy.
Does anyone know of a more accurate site (UK specific bit world also)?
Does anyone know of a more accurate site (UK specific bit world also)?
Hard to say. There are reports of people occasionally getting it a second time but the suspicion is that the original test was a false positive.
Are you joking? These people are politicians and are accountable for their actions and decisions. The cabinet is made up of rabid Brexieers who have made it an incredibly uncomfortable place for immigrant workers to ply their trade.
Here is the warning 4 years ago that they chose to ignore:
Brexit 'will make NHS staff shortages worse'
Here is the reality:
More than 22,000 EU nationals have left NHS since Brexit referendum, figures show
If now, during a crisis, when we are building emergency hospitals that we do not have enough staff to actually service is not the time to hold these people accountable for their statements and their decisions that have lead to this farcical level of unpreparedness, when exactly do you think that time will be?
Let them crack on with blaming footballers for earning too much money, NHS staff for frivolous use of PPE equipment and while mortality figures are smashing ahead as #1 in Europe, we should all be using this as a time to celebrate Boris's sudoku spirit instead.
You can feck right off if you expect me to be OK with that attitude.
This seems to be one of the most reliable:
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
For UK specifics this site is probably the best (If you open up the map you can zoom in to cases in your general area):
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ae5dda8f86814ae99dde905d2a9070ae
The worldometers one seems pretty accurate for countries with established reporting procedures and on the headline figures (deaths, cases, daily deaths, daily cases).
There won't be much support for serious restrictions long-term. The mood of the population is already changing.
There was an interesting article in the Spiegel on this subject yesterday.
Change of mood in the corona crisis
Dangerous annoyance
So far, the Germans have endured the measures for corona containment in a disciplined manner. A weekly psychogram now reveals an alarming change.
Psychologists have a name for a phenomenon that could soon prove to be a major challenge for Germany's crisis management in Corona times: "Disaster Fatigue". It is a term used to describe the weariness in the face of too much bad news; the feeling of annoyance that makes us rebel against an excess of disaster reports.
Cornelia Betsch is a psychologist at the University of Erfurt and has made the explosive diagnosis. Week after week Betsch evaluates the answers of 1000 respondents, on the basis of which she tries to determine the mood of the Germans during the corona crisis. In the first five weeks of the crisis "everything went well", the psychologist states. Now she has sounded the alarm for the first time.
The evaluation of the current survey is worrying: slowly, people's fear of the rampant corona virus is fading. Confidence that the health care system will be able to cope with the number of Covid-19 patients has grown. This is also reflected in a survey by the Civey opinion research institute. According to the survey, 62 percent of Germans are "clearly" or "rather optimistic" that the country will come through the crisis well.
As fear of the virus wanes, people's economic concerns will come to the fore. Acceptance for the state-imposed ban on contact, for the closure of schools and businesses is crumbling. Discontent is growing, especially among the younger generation. They suffer particularly from boredom, loneliness and fear of the future.
At first everything seemed fine
"In Germany, unlike in many other countries, we rely predominantly on voluntary action," says Betsch. "It is particularly important to recognize such signals early on and to react to them."
At the beginning of March, when it was clear that the Corona pandemic would not be stopped, Betsch decided to draw up a psychogram of the population: She wanted to record as precisely as possible the fears and concerns with which the Germans would react to the virus and the government measures to contain it.
In the meantime, COSMO, as the Erfurt psychologists' study developed in cooperation with the Robert Koch Institute is called, has become an important instrument of epidemic policy. Betsch proudly points out that around 40 other countries around the world have taken the Erfurt method as a model to be able to capture moods in the country as quickly as possible.
Initially, COSMO had mainly reassuring things to report: The Germans' risk awareness increased rapidly, they appeared to be well informed, and there was a great deal of understanding for the government measures. Many fears also proved to be unjustified or exaggerated: "For example, we discovered that the much-lamented corona parties hardly exist. Discrimination and exclusion are also rare," says Betsch.
Rebellion or habituation effect?
However, the evaluation of the sixth COSMO week suddenly showed that something was different: instead of 54 percent before, only 45 percent of those surveyed now state that their thoughts are constantly revolving around the corona virus. Whereas 60 percent of the people had been afraid of the disease in the weeks before, this proportion was now only 52 percent. Conversely, the number of those who consider the measures to be excessive has increased.
Is this a sign of genuine rebellion or just a familiarization effect? Is the impression gaining ground that the worst is already over? Or has the public debate on exit strategies raised expectations that the exit restrictions will soon be lifted? The COSMO data do not provide any information on the causes of the change in sentiment. They only show that something is happening.
Dirk Brockmann of Berlin's Humboldt University can confirm this. He evaluates movement data from mobile phones and found that Germans who have been staying at home for three weeks are leaving their homes again. The data is unmistakable evidence of the reawakening of the urge to move.
On behalf of the Robert Koch Institute, Brockmann evaluates mobile phone data provided by Telekom. This allows him to identify the flow of traffic in the country and thus estimate the routes by which the virus is spreading throughout Germany. As a side effect, he was able to see how the pattern of movement changed during the shutdown: The mobility of the Germans dropped abruptly by around 40 percent.
Then came the call from Erfurt. "Mrs Betsch asked: We see a change in our data. Do you see something in yours too?", Brockmann said. At that time, the Berlin researcher had not yet noticed any effect. Only shortly afterwards an irritated employee approached him: "Look," he said. "There's something funny. Mobility is increasing again."
Betsch and Brockmann compared their findings and were fascinated to see how well they matched. "One may mistrust every record for itself," says Brockmann. "But if there are such similar results from two completely different sources, then it probably won't be a coincidence." Betsch now considers it urgent to react to the change of mood in the country. "We must make people aware that we must not gamble away our profits now," she says.
In fact, in the week before Easter there had been calls for relaxation of regulations and supposed signals of an improvement in the situation. Scientific studies seemed to suggest that children are rarely carriers of the virus and that schools may soon be reopened. The cross-sectional study from Heinsberg, which has since become controversial, assumed that at least there, there was an increased infestation and herd immunity of humans. Politicians also debated a possible exit from the lockdown more intensively.
On the other hand, there are urgent warnings from the scientific community that the measures should not be relaxed, but should even be tightened. A study has also simulated how Easter visits to the family could once again accelerate the spread of the pandemic in Germany and undo the containment achieved so far. Betsch also sees this danger: "We have all incurred high costs so far. If we slack off now, it was all in vain.
Dangerous annoyance
So far, the Germans have endured the measures for corona containment in a disciplined manner. A weekly psychogram now reveals an alarming change.
Psychologists have a name for a phenomenon that could soon prove to be a major challenge for Germany's crisis management in Corona times: "Disaster Fatigue". It is a term used to describe the weariness in the face of too much bad news; the feeling of annoyance that makes us rebel against an excess of disaster reports.
Cornelia Betsch is a psychologist at the University of Erfurt and has made the explosive diagnosis. Week after week Betsch evaluates the answers of 1000 respondents, on the basis of which she tries to determine the mood of the Germans during the corona crisis. In the first five weeks of the crisis "everything went well", the psychologist states. Now she has sounded the alarm for the first time.
The evaluation of the current survey is worrying: slowly, people's fear of the rampant corona virus is fading. Confidence that the health care system will be able to cope with the number of Covid-19 patients has grown. This is also reflected in a survey by the Civey opinion research institute. According to the survey, 62 percent of Germans are "clearly" or "rather optimistic" that the country will come through the crisis well.
As fear of the virus wanes, people's economic concerns will come to the fore. Acceptance for the state-imposed ban on contact, for the closure of schools and businesses is crumbling. Discontent is growing, especially among the younger generation. They suffer particularly from boredom, loneliness and fear of the future.
At first everything seemed fine
"In Germany, unlike in many other countries, we rely predominantly on voluntary action," says Betsch. "It is particularly important to recognize such signals early on and to react to them."
At the beginning of March, when it was clear that the Corona pandemic would not be stopped, Betsch decided to draw up a psychogram of the population: She wanted to record as precisely as possible the fears and concerns with which the Germans would react to the virus and the government measures to contain it.
In the meantime, COSMO, as the Erfurt psychologists' study developed in cooperation with the Robert Koch Institute is called, has become an important instrument of epidemic policy. Betsch proudly points out that around 40 other countries around the world have taken the Erfurt method as a model to be able to capture moods in the country as quickly as possible.
Initially, COSMO had mainly reassuring things to report: The Germans' risk awareness increased rapidly, they appeared to be well informed, and there was a great deal of understanding for the government measures. Many fears also proved to be unjustified or exaggerated: "For example, we discovered that the much-lamented corona parties hardly exist. Discrimination and exclusion are also rare," says Betsch.
Rebellion or habituation effect?
However, the evaluation of the sixth COSMO week suddenly showed that something was different: instead of 54 percent before, only 45 percent of those surveyed now state that their thoughts are constantly revolving around the corona virus. Whereas 60 percent of the people had been afraid of the disease in the weeks before, this proportion was now only 52 percent. Conversely, the number of those who consider the measures to be excessive has increased.
Is this a sign of genuine rebellion or just a familiarization effect? Is the impression gaining ground that the worst is already over? Or has the public debate on exit strategies raised expectations that the exit restrictions will soon be lifted? The COSMO data do not provide any information on the causes of the change in sentiment. They only show that something is happening.
Dirk Brockmann of Berlin's Humboldt University can confirm this. He evaluates movement data from mobile phones and found that Germans who have been staying at home for three weeks are leaving their homes again. The data is unmistakable evidence of the reawakening of the urge to move.
On behalf of the Robert Koch Institute, Brockmann evaluates mobile phone data provided by Telekom. This allows him to identify the flow of traffic in the country and thus estimate the routes by which the virus is spreading throughout Germany. As a side effect, he was able to see how the pattern of movement changed during the shutdown: The mobility of the Germans dropped abruptly by around 40 percent.
Then came the call from Erfurt. "Mrs Betsch asked: We see a change in our data. Do you see something in yours too?", Brockmann said. At that time, the Berlin researcher had not yet noticed any effect. Only shortly afterwards an irritated employee approached him: "Look," he said. "There's something funny. Mobility is increasing again."
Betsch and Brockmann compared their findings and were fascinated to see how well they matched. "One may mistrust every record for itself," says Brockmann. "But if there are such similar results from two completely different sources, then it probably won't be a coincidence." Betsch now considers it urgent to react to the change of mood in the country. "We must make people aware that we must not gamble away our profits now," she says.
In fact, in the week before Easter there had been calls for relaxation of regulations and supposed signals of an improvement in the situation. Scientific studies seemed to suggest that children are rarely carriers of the virus and that schools may soon be reopened. The cross-sectional study from Heinsberg, which has since become controversial, assumed that at least there, there was an increased infestation and herd immunity of humans. Politicians also debated a possible exit from the lockdown more intensively.
On the other hand, there are urgent warnings from the scientific community that the measures should not be relaxed, but should even be tightened. A study has also simulated how Easter visits to the family could once again accelerate the spread of the pandemic in Germany and undo the containment achieved so far. Betsch also sees this danger: "We have all incurred high costs so far. If we slack off now, it was all in vain.
tl;dr:
- mobility increasing again since last week
- support for restrictions waning
It's the same test from everything I know. The test kit is what you use to to preserve the sample you take from someone.
The sample is then tested in a lab in a PCR. Funnily enough, my friends company in the middle are looking at supplying the kits from South Korea in different countries in the middle east. He sent me the sales pack for it
The issue with this is it doesn't really seem to be the Brits singling out the UK for starters.
I've seen a small article in German where the director for the institute for virology of the university clinic Leipzig put the certainty at 99.9% and the director of the institute for virology of the technical university of Dresden is quoted with "more than 97%". All assuming that swabs are taken correctly I guess.
I don't need to wait for after the pandemic to know that. I do need to wait for it to end to start waging war against them.
Will you wait until after Trump's term(s) ends to conclude he's an idiot?
This was addressed by the Korean expert from the video posted ages ago. Provided the translation is correct, according to him, he says that yes, you can get reinfected after recovering. He says this is called "reactivation". It is about 8 minutes in. I don't think he talks about it again but not 100% sure.
Last edited:
In all honesty I'd guess a lot of it is just people trying to reassure themselves that their own leaders are doing things better at a point when it can often be difficult to tell.
Plus countries like the UK and US carried pre-existing narratives into the crisis that were fairly widespread in other countries. In the US' case it was that President was inept, in the UK's case it was the anti-expert British exceptionalism angle that comes from years of the Brexit debate. Those narratives heighten external criticism once the UK and US appear to be struggling more than other countries.
Updated graph of deaths in England by day of death. 823 new deaths as of 5pm yesterday -43 from the day before but it's a weekend. Orange is a 5 day trailing average (last 5-7 days will see large to moderate upward changes):Updated graph of deaths in England by day of death. 866 new deaths as of 5pm yesterday +101 from the day before. Orange is a 5 day trailing average (last 5-7 days will see large to moderate upward changes).
I disagree, but ok.
I signed up, then they said my Id couldn't be confirmed and it seems like it's closed now so can't sign up again.
Last edited:
Good luck, stay safe